My son was an exception to the norm, but to answer the question: he was given a firm offer in December of his junior year of HS. He had other D1 offers to respond to, had the SAT score and GPA (along with AP courses, rigor, etc.) that they were seeking. While this was an exception, there were others in his class (one of his travel teammates) who committed to another Ivy a few months later. I share this mainly to let you know that they make offers well in advance of Fall of senior year, but the student has to keep up his end of the bargain in the classroom. But, to my knowledge, they don't give offers unless they are 95%+ sure that, absent some unusual event, the student athlete will be accepted by Admissions. I know of 6-8 Ivy commits already for the 2017 class, based on PG postings and what I've heard through the grapevine. I've not heard stories of Ivy's pulling offers, but that is not to say it isn't happening.
BucsFan - It's really great to hear that your son got an Ivy offer so far in advance and it stood the test of time. On a side note, I'm just curious: Are the PG postings self-reported by the players? How accurate are they?
PG commitment postings are self-reported, or are - put another way - are reported by anyone who has access to that players account. They are generally very accurate, although I've heard stories of players who report a commitment, but there is no scholarship involved. In other words, if Johnny Shortstop has not been recruited at all by BigState U. but plans to attend and maybe try to walk on, Johnny could post his commitment as BigState U. PGStaff would have to verify, but I think there is so much scrutiny and so many "eyeballs" given PG's success that this is pretty rare. However, what is important to know is that there are many commits who aren't on PG, haven't attended a PG event (so have no profile) and/or don't bother to post their commitment. Last I looked, my son's school showed only 4 commits on PG for his class. There are actually 7. 3 of them have no PG profile.
My son got his Likely Letter in late October (received email from the Coach on Oct. 22 that is was on its way), but that was because he got his application in in early October (as advised by the coaches). A Likely Letter is nearly bullet proof. No Likely Letters go out in the Summer, because they cannot be issued until after the application is 100% complete, and the open period during which applications can be submitted and thus read by admissions likely varies by school. Below is an actual excerpt from an email that my son received from his coach in late July (as 4 of the eventual class of 7 had been offered and verbally committed at that point; and I am sure he resent it as additional players committed.)
THE APPLICATION PROCESS/ OBTAINING YOUR LIKELY LETTER
As far as the admissions process goes, here is the timeline of events. All of you have hopefully begun to think about your application in one way or another (essay topics, the teachers you will be asking for recommendations, etc.). The obvious goal for all involved here would be to have your application submitted as soon as possible but PLEASE do not sacrifice ANY part of it in order to submit it quickly. As a reminder, the absolute earliest your application can be read is October 1st and typically it will take 1-3 weeks for you to obtain your likely letter. That application cannot be read until every part of your application has been submitted and that includes your standardized testing.