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My 2023 RHP has a verbal commitment to a D1 mid major down South. In May of this year (his jr year of HS) he unfortunately had to have TJ surgery. So in theory,  if there are no recovery issues,  he should be back on the mound May / June of “23” and won’t be playing college ball until February of “24” a full 21 months post surgery. His College coach seems ok with him going in the 23 class but also is ok with him going in the 24 class. My son is leaning towards re-classing. I have several concerns with re-classing. Transfer portal , Coaching changes to name a few. My son feels the need to go to events (national showcase / Area code invite ) he missed this year that may have put him on the pro scout radar for the HS draft. Am I being too paranoid?? Thoughts??

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Reminder these are opinions you will receive, and the path is yours.

If the D1 mid-major coach is telling him his spot is safe even with the TJ, and he really can't pitch until the summer before the start of college, the best option in my mind would be to not re-class and get to that D1.

As to the question of should my son reclass so he can showcase for pro scouts in a year with the hopes of possibly being drafted out of high school.   Did any evaluator ever tell him there was a shot at that?  A mid-major D1 offer is very good, but not sure how many D1 Mid Major pitchers are HS draft prospects. I get he could develop into that, but the odds are extremely long (IN MY OPINION).

Last, maybe the question in your son's mind is that a reclass and extra year to recover from TJ could lead to a p5 program.  That is possible but tough for all the reasons you state above (portal/TJ recovery, tight timelines), but this path is more possible than the draft, but still long odds.

I am in your camp if you want my opinion.  I would advise my son to stick to the plan.  He could also be the guy in the portal in 2 years, heading to a top program that will get him in a position to be drafted out of College.

Last edited by Gunner Mack Jr.

Thank you for the responses. Great advice. To answer some additional questions. Prior to surgery he was topping out at 92 beginning his junior year. And did have some “birddog” scout access. He did have P5 offers. He felt that going to a Mid Major would give him more playing time rather than just another arm at a P5 and since he was in the South more access to scouts.  Also he liked the school and it’s location. I am in agreement that if he’s ready to go he should go. Getting drafted out of HS is a long-shot and if you’re “that guy” in college they will find you. Again I appreciate the advice.

@Mechanized posted:

Prior to surgery he was topping out at 92 beginning his junior year. And did have some “birddog” scout access. He did have P5 offers. He felt that going to a Mid Major would give him more playing time rather than just another arm at a P5 and since he was in the South more access to scouts.  Also he liked the school and it’s location.

This is a golden example of why it's important to go where you are loved/best fit. Had he committed to one of those P5s not only would he have been told to reclassify, he would have been reevaluated during that reclass year as to whether they still wanted him and would have had a replacement lined up.

If the school he is currently committed to is going to welcome him with open arms and did not give him a hard time about something that directly effects his value to them I would do exactly what they say and trust their judgement. He will be 2 years removed from surgery when the college season rolls around, he'll be fine.

@RJM posted:

Re: Is a he a potential pro draft prospect out of high school?

Were 20+ radar guns raised when he wound up? If not, take the college offer on the table.

Well, I guess that is my son's point for re-classing. This summer would've been his last year to showcase his talents before college and it was taken from him due to the injury. I am in agreement that he should NOT re-class. Sometimes you have to play the hand you're dealt.

Last edited by Mechanized

As a 2023 HS grad, I see no need for your son to re-class because he will still have the option to take a gap year after graduation if he chooses to do that.

If something changes with his college offer (coach leaves for another school?), he could do a post-grad year somewhere or take part-time courses while training at an academy if he felt that would be helpful.

So, if he did take a "gap year" or "post grad year" isn't that re-classing?  And are you able to make that decision AFTER you sign your NLI??  Does that screw the coach at all?  His concern is he really won't be back throwing full game speed until May 2023 but NLI's are signed this year in November.   So, his concern is, in May of 23 if he feels he isn't ready, what options does, or doesn't he have?

From my frame of reference when consulting re: academic eligibility and/or an athlete's 5-year clock, I always think of "re-classing" as repeating a year of high school.  So probably just different terminology on that point.

The NLI doesn't have to be signed this November.  Question is whether the coach wants him enough to hold his scholarship and give him until next Spring to sign the NLI. 

In this changing world, we would recommend that you monitor the roster management strategy of the school and the competition in their conference.

Note, understanding that majority members that participate in this community knows the high level events.

Has the school's  roster management strategy changed post covid,  check 2021 and 2022 changes,

CBI Team Roster Turnover Dashboard can be used to quickly understand certain behavior changes

Note each year strategy in baseball on certain events

2020 season (No.of players 10,603)

  • Covid shut down
  • Eligibility waivers
  • transfer portal 1276
  • mlb draft 5 rounds

2021 Season (11,824) Bethune Cookman and Princeton missing rosters

  • Expanded rosters
  • Eligibility waivers JUCOs
  • Eligibility waivers for 4 yr schools that cancelled seasons???
  • transfer portal 2,054
  • mlb draft 20 rounds
  • Asthon v NCAA decision (NIL)

2022 Season(11, 526) - 301 teams

  • Roster limit (40), scholarships increased from 27 to 32 (no 25% min)
  • JUCO Pipeline growth due to previous eligibility waivers
  • transfer portal 2,604 (various reason, including NIL governance state level)
  • mlb draft 20 rounds

2023 Season(???)  - 305 teams

  • Roster limit (35 - 40)
    • major caveats
      • (student-athletes beyond 35 (must have lost covid season (2020)
      • counter 27 - 32 (anyone in 28-32 range (lost covid season) e.g. Super Seniors
        • Players who count as extra roster spots and counters would count against a team’s 11.7 and would be required to have 25 percent of a scholarship.

School details will show you something else

Each season may or may not show a pattern

2022 Season

South Carolina_2022_Player_attrition_Turnover_Overview

2021 Season

South Carolina_2021_Player_attrition_Turnover_Overview

2020 Season

South Carolina_2020_Player_attrition_Turnover_Overview

2019 Season

South Carolina_2019_Player_attrition_Turnover_Overview

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