Transfer Portal 2023

@Ster posted:

I took the time this weekend to look through all of the rosters of the few D1 schools that have been communicating with my 2024.   It is shocking to look at Perfect Game Commitment list from 2019 and 2020 and see how few of the players on those list that still have their name on those schools rosters.   I have found Collegebaseballinsights.com to be a good tool, but it's a little more real when you look at names and pictures instead of just looking at numbers.   

I was having a conversation with my son this morning and we were discussing the importance of being comfortable with a school and not just a baseball program.  Just looking at the statistics, the chances of a player signing and continuing with a D1 school for four years in their baseball program is rather slim.    My wife chimed in with the typical parent response, "but our son is a really good pitcher and these school that are talking to him really want him in their program."   I had to remind her that, the parents of all of those kids that are not long on that teams roster probably said the same thing when their child was being recruited.

There are a lot of names in that D1baseball.com transfer portal.  You never know the situation that led to those names being there.   I'm sure that there are some that put their name in the Transfer portal to move up to a more competitive program, but I would imagine that the majority of names in the TP are there because things didn't go as they had hoped and anticipated with the school that they signed with.   

All the transfer portal did was bring transferring out of the closet and out in the open. My son played before the portal. Without overrecruiting a typical spring roster was approximately fourteen freshmen, seven sophs, seven juniors and seven seniors. Only eighteen to twenty players will be contributors. All thirty-five players believe it will be them. Reality and the numbers don't match. Half who went in believing they were the cant miss studs, and pro prospects ended up transferring.

@Ster

Nice post. Two main things, IMO, that changed college sports, covid and allowing players to transfer without penalty (sitting a year), which I think is a very good thing.

I agree with you, the portal is more than likely full of players that have eligibility left, were predominetly walk ons  who may have rarely played and put themselves in the portal. Getting an opportunity to get some grad credits in is a good thing. Why not go for it!

Your son, as others, probably has a better chance of being in the lineup everyday at a mid D1 and then transfering if and when he proves that he can crack a top D1 or P5 lineup. No sense going to a top 50 program if you are going to sit.

When things change, you have to make changes, JMO.

@Ster posted:

I took the time this weekend to look through all of the rosters of the few D1 schools that have been communicating with my 2024.   It is shocking to look at Perfect Game Commitment list from 2019 and 2020 and see how few of the players on those list that still have their name on those schools rosters.   I have found Collegebaseballinsights.com to be a good tool, but it's a little more real when you look at names and pictures instead of just looking at numbers.   

I was having a conversation with my son this morning and we were discussing the importance of being comfortable with a school and not just a baseball program.  Just looking at the statistics, the chances of a player signing and continuing with a D1 school for four years in their baseball program is rather slim.    My wife chimed in with the typical parent response, "but our son is a really good pitcher and these school that are talking to him really want him in their program."   I had to remind her that, the parents of all of those kids that are not long on that teams roster probably said the same thing when their child was being recruited.

...

I've done similar reviews for my 2024.  I told my wife that roughly half of the HS class of 2024 PG Commitments will not be on that spring college baseball season roster their freshman year (spring '25), and another half of that will not be on the roster for the spring the next year (spring '26).  ... my rough estimate, only 1/3rd of those HS class of 2024 PG verbal commits will be on "that college" roster three years from now.  I've told my son before he made his verbal commitment ... "don't expect me to pay 100% of the tuition for you to stay, if you get cut from the baseball program after your first year".  These boys get to grow up a lot faster than I did.

Below is my analysis of the roster of the school my son is going to next year (D1 mid major). I grabbed all the commitments I can find in PG and PBR since 2018 and see which names are still in the current 2023 roster.  I get the data below.  If you don't count the 2022 commits, then the average is 20% retention (only 20% of all commits since 2018 is still in the current roster).

Here's the table that shows how many of their current rosters are transferees broken down by class.  The positive news is that most of the transferee came from Jucos (13 out of 20 transferees).

@atlnon posted:

Below is my analysis of the roster of the school my son is going to next year (D1 mid major). I grabbed all the commitments I can find in PG and PBR since 2018 and see which names are still in the current 2023 roster.  I get the data below.  If you don't count the 2022 commits, then the average is 20% retention (only 20% of all commits since 2018 is still in the current roster).

Here's the table that shows how many of their current rosters are transferees broken down by class.  The positive news is that most of the transferee came from Jucos (13 out of 20 transferees).

That 20% sounds socking, but from what I have seen from doing similar deep dives and analysis of some D-1 Mid-majors, this is the norm.   

@mjd-dad posted:

I've done similar reviews for my 2024.  I told my wife that roughly half of the HS class of 2024 PG Commitments will not be on that spring college baseball season roster their freshman year (spring '25), and another half of that will not be on the roster for the spring the next year (spring '26).  ... my rough estimate, only 1/3rd of those HS class of 2024 PG verbal commits will be on "that college" roster three years from now.  I've told my son before he made his verbal commitment ... "don't expect me to pay 100% of the tuition for you to stay, if you get cut from the baseball program after your first year".  These boys get to grow up a lot faster than I did.

You bring up a very valid point about covering the cost of college attendance.   And, it is an issue that as a parent, I have to take into consideration when discussing recruiting and offers with my 2024.   @atlnon's post above appears to be the norm and not the exception.   From what I have seen evaluating signing classes and rosters, only about 4 to 5 players in a mid-major signing class of 12 will finish on the baseball roster in their Sr. year.   So, if you are a parent with a recruit holding an offer of 60% tuition + books, then you are on the hook for future cost of attendance should your son fall in that 75% attrition category before the Sr. season. 

I realize that no one wants to look at this with a defeated mindset, but I find it prudent to at least consider all of the "what if" scenarios.   So, we will have a conversation about D1 attrition, and how perhaps that is significantly less likely among the D2 and D3 programs.   

I already told my son that whatever school he picks, it has to be a school that we are in a position to be able to afford w/o athletic scholarship.  The fact that he chose to go the academic scholarship route is a step in the right direction in my opinion (even though I know some people here think it was the wrong decision to go with academic instead of athletic money).  We looked at the profile of the players in the roster and we concluded that he is at the same level as those kids when they were seniors in HS.  At this point, we have to go in believing he can be (or will be) one of the 20% that will make it, but be prepared financially if not.

@Ster posted:

You bring up a very valid point about covering the cost of college attendance.   And, it is an issue that as a parent, I have to take into consideration when discussing recruiting and offers with my 2024.   @atlnon's post above appears to be the norm and not the exception.   From what I have seen evaluating signing classes and rosters, only about 4 to 5 players in a mid-major signing class of 12 will finish on the baseball roster in their Sr. year.   So, if you are a parent with a recruit holding an offer of 60% tuition + books, then you are on the hook for future cost of attendance should your son fall in that 75% attrition category before the Sr. season.

I realize that no one wants to look at this with a defeated mindset, but I find it prudent to at least consider all of the "what if" scenarios.   So, we will have a conversation about D1 attrition, and how perhaps that is significantly less likely among the D2 and D3 programs.   

Don't be so sure that roster attrition is less at other levels, particularly top-tier D2s...

@T_Thomas posted:

Don't be so sure that roster attrition is less at other levels, particularly top-tier D2s...

You beat me to the punch.

@atlnon posted:

I already told my son that whatever school he picks, it has to be a school that we are in a position to be able to afford w/o athletic scholarship.  The fact that he chose to go the academic scholarship route is a step in the right direction in my opinion (even though I know some people here think it was the wrong decision to go with academic instead of athletic money).  We looked at the profile of the players in the roster and we concluded that he is at the same level as those kids when they were seniors in HS.  At this point, we have to go in believing he can be (or will be) one of the 20% that will make it, but be prepared financially if not.

The challenge of being in that 20% is only one part of the financial equation.  Remember that scholarships are generally one year commitments.  You may be one of the few that figures it out and makes it to spring your freshman year, then you find out at the end of May that they want you back, but not at the same monetary commitment they made to you for year 1.  That 60% can get to 25%  really quick.

College baseball is a cut throat business and young men get thrown in that fire quickly.  Study hard and always leave yourself with options outside of the situation you start with.  That situation WILL change..

@atlnon posted:

I already told my son that whatever school he picks, it has to be a school that we are in a position to be able to afford w/o athletic scholarship.  The fact that he chose to go the academic scholarship route is a step in the right direction in my opinion (even though I know some people here think it was the wrong decision to go with academic instead of athletic money).  We looked at the profile of the players in the roster and we concluded that he is at the same level as those kids when they were seniors in HS.  At this point, we have to go in believing he can be (or will be) one of the 20% that will make it, but be prepared financially if not.

But if he was no longer able to play on the team, would he want to continue to attend that school and give up baseball?

@T_Thomas posted:

Don't be so sure that roster attrition is less at other levels, particularly top-tier D2s...

Very true. My son was in the portal, and his first choice was a very good D2. They didn't have a spot. He ended up at a D1 which won their conference. Be prepared for anything.

Adbono

who in the baseball office screens the transfer portal? How does research the players? What are his offering tools?
Bob

@nycdad posted:

But if he was no longer able to play on the team, would he want to continue to attend that school and give up baseball?

Maybe not.  But at least he has the option then.  At that point, he may decide that it's time to move on from baseball.  If so, at least he doesn't have the added stress of losing his athletic scholarship.  He can transition to being a normal student without worrying whether he can afford to stay in college or not.

This conversation makes me feel better about going the academic scholarship route.  At least that is more in my son's control as long as he maintains his grades.

@Consultant posted:

Adbono

who in the baseball office screens the transfer portal? How does research the players? What are his offering tools?
Bob

All coaches have access to video and performance data through Synergy, so it’s pretty easy for a coach to research those in the portal.

@atlnon posted:

Maybe not.  But at least he has the option then.  At that point, he may decide that it's time to move on from baseball.  If so, at least he doesn't have the added stress of losing his athletic scholarship.  He can transition to being a normal student without worrying whether he can afford to stay in college or not.

This conversation makes me feel better about going the academic scholarship route.  At least that is more in my son's control as long as he maintains his grades.

I think that you are being wise, and I believe that this topic is something that in my conversations with other parents in travel baseball circles are seldom consider.   I guess we as parents of athletic children are just wired to believe that our sons have excelled in every endeavor of baseball, and that the notion that they might be cut from a roster or have their athletic scholarship reduced due to performance isn't something that crosses the mind during the recruitment process.   

For an example, there is a HA D1 school that offers 80% athletic scholarship to a recruit.  The schools total cost of attendance is in excess of $70k a year.   If after the first season the coaching staff decides to reduce that athletic award to 25% then that totally changes a families affordability level.

@Ster posted:

I think that you are being wise, and I believe that this topic is something that in my conversations with other parents in travel baseball circles are seldom consider.   I guess we as parents of athletic children are just wired to believe that our sons have excelled in every endeavor of baseball, and that the notion that they might be cut from a roster or have their athletic scholarship reduced due to performance isn't something that crosses the mind during the recruitment process.   

For an example, there is a HA D1 school that offers 80% athletic scholarship to a recruit.  The schools total cost of attendance is in excess of $70k a year.   If after the first season the coaching staff decides to reduce that athletic award to 25% then that totally changes a families affordability level.

One of the option for my son is a HA school around that price tag.  This was one of our biggest consideration (the ability to afford it w/o athletic scholarship). I'm sure we can find a way to pay for it. But I don't think paying $70k/yr for school is worth it considering there are $30k/yr options.  These options may not be HA and "prestigious" but it's more than enough to have a good career. And my son is not the HA type. If he is, then it may be worth the cost (still not convinced of this either - still not sure what you get out of a prestigious liberal arts degree vs. a more practical degree from a normal state university).

@Ster posted:

I think that you are being wise, and I believe that this topic is something that in my conversations with other parents in travel baseball circles are seldom consider.   I guess we as parents of athletic children are just wired to believe that our sons have excelled in every endeavor of baseball, and that the notion that they might be cut from a roster or have their athletic scholarship reduced due to performance isn't something that crosses the mind during the recruitment process.   

For an example, there is a HA D1 school that offers 80% athletic scholarship to a recruit.  The schools total cost of attendance is in excess of $70k a year.   If after the first season the coaching staff decides to reduce that athletic award to 25% then that totally changes a families affordability level.

This is why I always preach on here and in personal conversations with families you better have a plan B because no one is a guarantee no matter how successful they have been.  There is always someone out there who can be better.  And in today's world it may be someone who transfers in and takes your spot that you thought was a given.

I know a P5 guy that has waited through the process and won the starting role in his position for the spring.  Then out of the blue, to him, a guy is coming in during the break that no one knew about who is a stud at his position.  The guy never had a plan B and his dream probably just got busted.  He has already burnt his redshirt year so he will burn another spring this year until he can transfer or hope that next year is his year.  Always have a plan B

Re athletic versus academic money

From a baseball standpoint it’s always better to have athletic money. It means the coach is invested in the player. But, what overrides everything is can the kid afford to be at the school. If there’s more academic money than athletic money available it’s hard not to take the academic money.

For kids who can meet the eligibility threshold the best scenario is qualifying for both.  It’s important to emphasize this to kids early in high school.

If a kid isn’t receiving athletic money chances are he’s starting off as player 28-35 on the roster assuming he makes the spring roster. If the player doesn’t stick with the team the first year or long term he’ll never forget. The coach won’t remember the kid’s name next week.

@atlnon posted:

One of the option for my son is a HA school around that price tag.  This was one of our biggest consideration (the ability to afford it w/o athletic scholarship). I'm sure we can find a way to pay for it. But I don't think paying $70k/yr for school is worth it considering there are $30k/yr options.  These options may not be HA and "prestigious" but it's more than enough to have a good career. And my son is not the HA type. If he is, then it may be worth the cost (still not convinced of this either - still not sure what you get out of a prestigious liberal arts degree vs. a more practical degree from a normal state university).

There is a ton of data available that clearly shows early and mid-career salaries are higher from various prestigious universities. Many sites even let you sort the data by a specific major. Companies target grads from certain schools and are willing to pay top dollar to land them. It doesn't mean someone can't have a successful career, but it certainly does give them an advantage when starting their career or landing that dream job. Is it worth the difference in paying $70k+ or $30k+, that is up to the individual.

Anyone that is about to make a decision on attending college/what college to attend should be doing a cost/benefit analysis that includes ROI. Unless money is no object. If done honestly it will be an eye opening exercise for many. Things have really changed since most of us went to college. The curriculum is not as challenging and the price tag has increased at a pace like no other industry. You are paying way more now and getting way less - unless you are pursuing a specialized degree. For those that incur a mountain of student loan debt (and you should all be asking why this is encouraged - if you don’t already know) a general studies college degree is likely not a good investment of a young adult’s time or money.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

There is a ton of data available that clearly shows early and mid-career salaries are higher from various prestigious universities. Many sites even let you sort the data by a specific major. Companies target grads from certain schools and are willing to pay top dollar to land them. It doesn't mean someone can't have a successful career, but it certainly does give them an advantage when starting their career or landing that dream job. Is it worth the difference in paying $70k+ or $30k+, that is up to the individual.

I can add a little to this discussion.  I use to sit on a Dental School admissions committee.   I can tell you with first hand experience that where you go to school absolutely is factored into whether or not someone applying to one of these post graduate professional schools is admitted.   

My 2024 has expressed to me his desire to purse a dental degree after college.   I told him that I can't help him throw a better curveball, but I can absolutely give him solid advice on what it takes to get into dental school, and where he goes to school plays a major role in that process.   

In this case, going to an HA private school absolutely matters.  Can you get into dental school from less prestigious State colleges and Universities?  Absolutely you can, but if you want to be in the best position possible for admittance then it's better to be at one of the HA colleges or Universities. 

Adbono and Ster;

Many, many years ago, I was in Albuquerque developing commercial property.

At the same time a young man, drop out from Harvard was in a Route 66 motel developing a "computer system". His name is Bill Gates.

True Story.

Bob

@Ster posted:

I can add a little to this discussion.  I use to sit on a Dental School admissions committee.   I can tell you with first hand experience that where you go to school absolutely is factored into whether or not someone applying to one of these post graduate professional schools is admitted.   

My 2024 has expressed to me his desire to purse a dental degree after college.   I told him that I can't help him throw a better curveball, but I can absolutely give him solid advice on what it takes to get into dental school, and where he goes to school plays a major role in that process.   

In this case, going to an HA private school absolutely matters.  Can you get into dental school from less prestigious State colleges and Universities?  Absolutely you can, but if you want to be in the best position possible for admittance then it's better to be at one of the HA colleges or Universities.

I guess my experience is colored being in IT.  When I interview people, I don't even look at or ask where they went to school. Most important thing we care about is their experience, how they think (do they have an analytical/curious/consultative mind), and their attitude (humble, willing to learn, ability to handle failure).  I can't remember the last time someone asked me what my degree was or where I graduated.

When my son was being recruited by HA liberal arts colleges, I look at the degrees and majors they offer and I can't understand what someone will do with a $70k/yr English or History degree.  I can see the value in terms of the relationship and connections you create - but not convinced that you can't get to the same place at a much cheaper cost.

I'm already struggling with my son going out of state (having to pay the out of state fee).  The in state fees in public universities are amazingly affordable.  But the net cost for going out of state to a public university is still within our budget (even w/o scholarships).  My oldest daughter is only paying $500/yr in tuition thanks to the lottery scholarship money.

@Consultant posted:

Adbono and Ster;

Many, many years ago, I was in Albuquerque developing commercial property.

At the same time a young man, drop out from Harvard was in a Route 66 motel developing a "computer system". His name is Bill Gates.

True Story.

Bob

A very minute percentage of people are too smart for college. We (had partners) hired one after a year of college. He was bored. He already knew what they were teaching in his computer science classes. He was our VP of Technology and very well compensated by the time he was twenty-five. We didn’t want him to get away.

I spent four years in college majoring in Econ, Quantitive Methodologies (calculus for Econ). I had no desire to spend my life in a cubicle being a math nerd. It was just an easy major for me. What I got out of college was four years of proving I was intelligent and could learn. I spent my career in sales and marketing.,

Then I started getting my MBA at night. It was only to say I was getting it so I was more promotable. I got it and left the corporate world. It’s nothing but an achievement I never hung on the wall.

@Ster posted:

I can add a little to this discussion.  I use to sit on a Dental School admissions committee.   I can tell you with first hand experience that where you go to school absolutely is factored into whether or not someone applying to one of these post graduate professional schools is admitted.   

My 2024 has expressed to me his desire to purse a dental degree after college.   I told him that I can't help him throw a better curveball, but I can absolutely give him solid advice on what it takes to get into dental school, and where he goes to school plays a major role in that process.   

In this case, going to an HA private school absolutely matters.  Can you get into dental school from less prestigious State colleges and Universities?  Absolutely you can, but if you want to be in the best position possible for admittance then it's better to be at one of the HA colleges or Universities.

My daughter graduated PBK from a very mediocre southern school. However, it was one of the top schools in the country in her major. She had high LSAT scores. She didn’t get accepted to three Ivies and two other northern elite law schools. We believe she was dealing with northern elitist academic snobbery.

She worked in a prestigious DC law firm for two years doing legal research. Eventually a senator friend of her boss asked which Ivy she would like to attend. He made a call. She became the Editor of the Law Review at a law school that had previously rejected her.

@RJM posted:

A very minute percentage of people are too smart for college. We (had partners) hired one after a year of college. He was bored. He already knew what they were teaching in his computer science classes. He was our VP of Technology and very well compensated by the time he was twenty-five. We didn’t want him to get away.

I spent four years in college majoring in Econ, Quantitive Methodologies (calculus for Econ). I had no desire to spend my life in a cubicle being a math nerd. It was just an easy major for me. What I got out of college was four years of proving I was intelligent and could learn. I spent my career in sales and marketing.,

Then I started getting my MBA at night. It was only to say I was getting it so I was more promotable. I got it and left the corporate world. It’s nothing but an achievement I never hung on the wall.

What I tell everyone, esp my kids, is that the biggest value of education isn't about learning  "what you know" (facts info, numbers, equations, etc.) but it's learning how to think and how to learn.

I think it’s meeting the right people. Matters far more than anything you’ve learned or know most of the time.

atlnon I totally agree.  Teaching students how to learn and how to think it crucial and is being taught less and less at all levels of education.  Many students simply learn to pass a test or are taught what they are supposed to think.    If Id venture a guess, and Im probably way too high, Id bet less than 5% of teachers and professors are teaching students how to think and learn. (Im a teacher and have taught in colleges too)

****edit: Upon reflection ( :-) ) let me add "effectively." Some go through the motions.  Im not saying I'm perfect or teacher of the year at this stuff at all, just making the point we arent doing enough of this in education.****

baseballhs, who you know and the network of connections is very crucial.  My son is a Sports Management major.  I'd think his network of contacts would be more important than what he knows for the most part.  For a doctor, lawyer, architect, etc it may be what you know...but networking and contacts are probably invaluable in all fields

@edcoach posted:

atlnon I totally agree.  Teaching students how to learn and how to think it crucial and is being taught less and less at all levels of education.  Many students simply learn to pass a test or are taught what they are supposed to think.    If Id venture a guess, and Im probably way too high, Id bet less than 5% of teachers and professors are teaching students how to think and learn. (Im a teacher and have taught in colleges too)

****edit: Upon reflection ( :-) ) let me add "effectively." Some go through the motions.  Im not saying I'm perfect or teacher of the year at this stuff at all, just making the point we arent doing enough of this in education.****

I think my first thing I would point out is, as a teacher, please fix your contractions.  Sorry, as a teacher myself, I proofread everything.    Secondly, I do agree with you that students struggle terribly with critical thinking and you are right, we are not doing enough.  What I do not agree with is that they are taught what to think.   Society wants us to teach the basic subjects and nothing else, but yet get upset when students don't know how to think for themselves.  Which one is it?  I am sure there are some, but for myself and my colleagues, I make sure I question my students multiple times a day to help those higher level thinking and critical thinking skills.  Your 5% bet makes me really sad.  If you believe that number, I am extremely sad for the area that you teach.

Wow

edcoach;

When I was accepted by the State of California to teach in the Junior College system they ask what did I desire to teach. I said I would develop a new class titled "Creativity".

12 weeks later, 3 hours each night with 40 students [adult and teenagers] we survived and learned together.

Bob

Baseballmom you gotta cut me a break: 1)I'm a sped teacher and not an English teacher. 2)when I post, my grammar is lax intentionally.  :-)

I totally agree with you. Society wants students to learn content AND know how to think. In schools we are forced to teach to a test.  Creativity killer. Thinking killer.  Schools talk a big game too...tell teachers to teach kids to think, but really don't care as long as they do well on a standardized test.  I think colleges are big pushers of ideology but there's more of it in public schools k-12 than I realized.

Btw one thing I've done is run a chess club at school. Very high order thinking skills and kids love it. Sped kids benefit from it immensely too.

@edcoach posted:

Baseballmom you gotta cut me a break: 1)I'm a sped teacher and not an English teacher. 2)when I post, my grammar is lax intentionally.  :-)

I totally agree with you. Society wants students to learn content AND know how to think. In schools we are forced to teach to a test.  Creativity killer. Thinking killer.  Schools talk a big game too...tell teachers to teach kids to think, but really don't care as long as they do well on a standardized test.  I think colleges are big pushers of ideology but there's more of it in public schools k-12 than I realized.

O.k, I will give you a pass. 

Yes, very true about teaching to the test.  This is something that needs to change, but we need legislation to stop the testing mandates to make it happen.  It is really hard for teachers right now because of the backlash over things like CRT (which does not exist in K-12.)  We need to get back to open discussions and allow students to be able to think freely without being judged. 

Thank you for teaching special education too.  We need many more of you!

@edcoach posted:

Btw one thing I've done is run a chess club at school. Very high order thinking skills and kids love it. Sped kids benefit from it immensely too.

LOVE THIS!!

@baseballmom01 posted:

O.k, I will give you a pass. 

Yes, very true about teaching to the test.  This is something that needs to change, but we need legislation to stop the testing mandates to make it happen.  It is really hard for teachers right now because of the backlash over things like CRT (which does not exist in K-12.)  We need to get back to open discussions and allow students to be able to think freely without being judged.

Thank you for teaching special education too.  We need many more of you!

Stating things that you may want to believe, but are not true, is not helpful to anyone on HSBBW

@adbono posted:

Stating things that you may want to believe, but are not true, is not helpful to anyone on HSBBW

Please explain to me what in my statement is not true?   As an educator, it is my job to make sure everyone has correct information so please enlighten me.

Is there a feature here in the "forums" that can repair a completely derailed post?  Wow, the title of the OP is "transfer portal 2023" and this has morphed into parenting advice and CRT discussions.  Isn't Facebook for that crap?  Focus appears to be lacking...🤦🏽‍♂️