Velocity

SultanofSwat posted:

2020 you are confusing cruising and touching.  Touching 85 is not gonna get many people to D1.  PG listings are 'touching'.

Not confusing it at all.  I am a research nut.  Way over analytical as anyone who knows me can tell you.  Now I am talking about what it takes to get in - not what the finished product looks like as a junior in college.  I am looking at the perspective of what it takes to get a roster spot at a D1.  Now most kids still gain some velo in college.  So I am talking about topping 85 or 86 in high school and getting your foot in the door.  And if you take college rosters (not top 25 type schools obviously) and look at what they topped on PG or PBR in high school you will find plenty of evidence to support my claim.

P.S. I will go one step further, when you get to mid and certainly lower D1 a lot of those kids don't even have PG or PBR profiles, never showcased apparently.  Now how many kids who have NEVER showcased do you think are throwing say 86+?  Some no doubt.  Probably some outliers out there who are 90+ and never showcased but they are rare.  Most of those kids without profiles are probably low 80's.

Son's school is top 40, consistent Regional participant as of late and from what I have seen it would support 2020dad. 

Most guys in first two scrimmages of spring topping over 90 but lots of those guys showed up as freshman topping 85-86.  

Son's school very much known for development and they are confident in their methods so maybe they are an outlier but 85-86 out of lots of body types can become 90+ with the right training IMO

I don't disagree that 86 will get your foot in the door at a mid to lower D1 assuming you can pitch.  Also, when you are touching 86, you need to be sitting not too far below that figure - say 83-84 and not 80-81.  Most of these "top" speeds are probably getting measured the summer as a rising senior so there is still a good 12 months before the kid would set foot on campus and maybe 30 months before a kid would be expected to step up as a starter (spring of sophomore season).  My take is that 90 is great (sitting 90 is better), but you don't  have to hit that magic number to get to "D1" or any other classification.  At some level, you might be able to have 90 as a requirement, but I doubt even SEC baseball requires 90 for every pitcher that makes the roster (although I'm confident that 80%+ are throwing 90+ mph).  Seems much discussion on this board starts to migrate to the level where you can secure a 50% scholarship to a top 50 program and not the 25% scholarship (the minimum) to a top 300 D1 program (actually I think it is 301 total D1 programs).

Ok, update...  Just looked at our only D1 in wisconsin, UWM.  12 RHP (left lefties out to avoid crafty lefty conversation) on the roster.  Four had no profiles at all they were 6-2, 6-4 and two at 6-5.  Their tallest pitchers!!  Taking a flyer on projectability?  That's my guess.  If you are 6-5 and throwing 88 in high school you showcase.  Lets be reasonable and agree that at least three of those four were mid 80's possibly below.  The other 8 were 6-0, 6-1, 6-2 (4), 6-3 and 6-4.  Velocities: 90, 89 (3), 88, 87, 86 (2).  UWM if you look them up has recently been almost smack dab middle of the pack D1.  So they have only one rostered pitcher who touched 90 as a high school senior.  One.  Counting the no profile kids I am just going to say 6 at 86 and below.  Zero ABOVE 90.  Imagine the bottom 25 of D1...  Fact of the matter is some people for some mysterious reason want to keep perpetuating this myth that you have to be 90+ to even get on a roster.  Or you better be 'special'.  That's not true either.  You have to be good, not special.  And more important someone who will not cause problems academically or as a teammate.  Those are the kids they take flyers on: big, good academically and a great teammate.  I don't want to start the size debate again but as you can see size does matter at least in the eyes of the coaches.  They ain't taking flyers on the 5'10 kid throwing 84.  But as we can see there are four big kids on the roster who have no profiles and presumably are projects.

Totally agree with backstop and screwball.  In the long run I am of course concerned with one kid mainly, my own!  Our goal will remain 85.  For him that will take some doing, not gonna come by wishing.  But I think its at least possible.  Given his size I think that will get him in the door.  Then its up to him to work and develop to actually get innings.  Now the question may become how many football programs would let him be a PO in college?  Anyone have insights on that?

All those that top out in the mid 80s are not equal.  Perhaps another way to look at it is to figure out how many 90+ are not recruited by DI colleges? How many mid 80s are not recruited by DI colleges? So academics not considered, pretty much all the 90 guys will get DI offers.  Most of the mid 80s guys will not get a DI offer, but many will.

Also keep in mind when we see a DI pitcher topping out at 86, it doesn't mean that is all he is capable of.  Often pitchers throw below their max velocity in order to gain command and movement.  So there are college pitchers throwing in the mid to upper 80s that we saw throw 90 or better while they were in HS.  The more velocity a pitcher can throw, the more room he has to subtract and improve in other areas.  The less velocity a pitcher can throw, subtraction can have a negative affect.  The guy with great velocity simply has much more to work with.  Doesn't mean the mid 80s guy can't be successful.

PGStaff posted:

All those that top out in the mid 80s are not equal.  Perhaps another way to look at it is to figure out how many 90+ are not recruited by DI colleges? How many mid 80s are not recruited by DI colleges? So academics not considered, pretty much all the 90 guys will get DI offers.  Most of the mid 80s guys will not get a DI offer, but many will.

Also keep in mind when we see a DI pitcher topping out at 86, it doesn't mean that is all he is capable of.  Often pitchers throw below their max velocity in order to gain command and movement.  So there are college pitchers throwing in the mid to upper 80s that we saw throw 90 or better while they were in HS.  The more velocity a pitcher can throw, the more room he has to subtract and improve in other areas.  The less velocity a pitcher can throw, subtraction can have a negative affect.  The guy with great velocity simply has much more to work with.  Doesn't mean the mid 80s guy can't be successful.

PG would you mind clarifying a couple things?  First when you say 'offer' do you mean scholarship or just any roster spot?  And what is it you see as the differentiating factors for the glut of mid 80's guys?  Projectability is #1 I would guess, simply don't see a lot of short guys throwing mid 80's going D1.  But what comes next?  Do you think spin rate is on the near horizon?  I would love to hear what you see as far as what they are looking for or maybe more appropriately for the last few spots on the staff what they are willing to accept.

Unbelievable how we went from rarely any HS kids hitting 90mph 20 years ago to what it is today.  Back then if you threw 90 you were considered a phenom.  Ryan Mills threw low to mid 80s as a senior, touched 90 once (after impromptu weighted ball training) in front of scouts and got drafted in the 13th round by the Yankees in '95.  Ended up throwing 95 in college and got drafted #6 by the Twins.  Nagging Injuries and I believe a refusal to have TJ surgery (which at the time was extremely controversial and damaging to your reputation) shortened his career.  

2020Dad, you might find this worthwhile: http://community.hsbaseballweb...r-at-certain-schools

All the velos listed were summer before senior year, or senior fall (unless the kid had a higher velocity from a prior time period, in which case i Used the higher velo). It's my only useful contribution to this community!

In my mind, in considering what is a viable option for my son, I discount the lowest one or two kids at any particular school, because who knows what special circumstances led to the kid being on the roster? Sort of, "aim for the middle of the fairway." 

My '18 RHP/OF is a very low mileage pitcher, used as a closer to date and would get an average of 20-30 pitches per weekend and had one start in summer ball with 10 weekends  (50 games for the season). He played in 28 high school games last spring with 11 total innings.  Last summer he was 86-88 and touched 90 several times in August.

He chose to take a different approach as he had ZERO interest. Last August, he dropped fall ball in lieu of working out to gain functional strength and mobility, three days a week. He didn't touch a ball from August to the third week of December. He followed the advice of his pitching coach, play less ball and train in the fall. It's better to show improvement instead of coming out the following spring  showing the same thing.

 Oh, for those guy's that look for the phone to ring on September  1............ it didn't happen.

He began throwing the third week of December, a couple weeks ago hits 93 throwing flat grounds. He's thrown a total of two, 20 pitch pens in the last week. He sat 89-90 and ran it up to 92. No weighted balls were used, just a lot of sled pushing, trap bars and Bulgarian split squats...........

I tell you all of this because it doesn't matter what your velocity is, until it's in front of the right person that wants your player!

Yes, he is going to do his first PG event at the end of February and his summer team was accepted to play at WWBA, Thank you Jerry!

PGStaff posted:

 The guy with great velocity simply has much more to work with.  Doesn't mean the mid 80s guy can't be successful.

Fact, it's the difference between having electric stuff and being a guy.

My '18 RHP/OF is a very low mileage pitcher, used as a closer to date and would get an average of 20-30 pitches per weekend and had one start in summer ball with 10 weekends  (50 games for the season). He played in 28 high school games last spring with 11 total innings.  Last summer he was 86-88 and touched 90 several times in August.

What were the starters throwing during high school?

2017LHPscrewball posted:

My '18 RHP/OF is a very low mileage pitcher, used as a closer to date and would get an average of 20-30 pitches per weekend and had one start in summer ball with 10 weekends  (50 games for the season). He played in 28 high school games last spring with 11 total innings.  Last summer he was 86-88 and touched 90 several times in August.

What were the starters throwing during high school?

His varsity team was comprised of 17 seniors, many of whom pitched. 5 went on to JUCO, the top was a LHP (84-86). That being said, 9 juniors also cycled through from jv in order to obtain a varsity letter to wear their senior year. He was the only underclassman that played all spring at the varsity level.  

Backpick25 posted:

He followed the advice of his pitching coach, play less ball and train in the fall..... It's better to show improvement instead of coming out the following spring  showing the same thing.

Truer words were never spoken on this site.  

to answer an earlier question...

An offer in our world involves a scholarship of some type.  But it could be a preferred walk on offer as well. I keep hearing about these guaranteed roster spots but don't really consider that an offer.  They are often used by colleges that are extremely expensive and that aren't very competitive. Getting a good student that can pay for college is more important than getting a good player at some colleges.

If we watched 20 mid 80s pitchers, there would always be a couple that really stood out.  It could be because of size, body type, and projection, but not always.  Sometimes a pitcher will just have the ability to locate with movement.  Sometimes the breaking ball and changeup are way ahead of the other mid 80s guys.  I always favor the quick arm guys over the better leverage stronger but slower arm guys. and yes, Trackman stats are becoming more important every year. Sometimes you see a fixable mechanical flaw that if corrected could lead to much more velocity. You see the demeanor, you see the competitor, you see that no fear look. Truth is, I've seen some mid 80s pitchers I like a lot more than some 90 MPH guys. But in the end your thinking that mid 80s guy is going to gain a lot of velocity.

So we know that all 90 mph pitchers aren't the same.

All 95 mph pitchers aren't the same.

So how do we lump all 80 mph or 85 mph pitchers together,  There can be a world of difference from one to another.

I always wonder about the term "quick arm" or "fast arm" . . . can anyone explain what this means, or point to examples?

Sorry for the hijack off velocity...This is in reply to PG's comments about "guaranteed roster spots".  I will respectfully disagree as the father of two college ballplayers who held "offers" at D1, D2, and D3. 

The notion that guaranteed roster spots are "often used by colleges that are extremely expensive and not very competitive" and that this is somehow not an offer is wrong IMHO.  They can be expensive and non-competitive schools or they could be inexpensive and highly competitive in my experience.

Guaranteed Spring roster spots are used by many colleges and by every college type from JuCo to D1.  Competitive or not competitive.  Expensive or inexpensive.  It's all some schools have to "offer" players they really want.

At D3, there are no athletic scholarships.  So the idea that an offer has to include a scholarship of some type is not true.  Plenty of posters here have kids who had D3 "offers" of this type, i.e., a guaranteed Spring roster spot for their Freshman year.  They would not be cut in a Fall tryout.  They would be on the roster for their first Spring and then would have to compete for playing time just like everybody else.

Perhaps PG is talking about only fully funded D1 or D2 programs?  At D1 or D2 not all programs are fully funded of course.  One of my kids held numerous D1 and D2 "offers" at schools that weren't very expensive at all, but were all highly competitive and Top 35 contenders.  Not all the offers had money...they ranged from 85% to zero.

My local D2 is a very strong program and inexpensive.  They have essentially no scholarship money.  They had over 90 players, most "recruited", to come out for their Fall.  They'll be at 40 or less roster spots this weekend for the opener.  If my son were "recruited" at this school, I'd want him to have a guaranteed Spring roster spot.  That's what this school can "offer". 

I think we sometimes get caught up in the whole "gotta hit 90" thing. In truth, there are a lot of D1 programs and not so many 90mph throwers that every school has a abundance of them. We visited two Mid-majors this weekend and watched their scrimmages. They are basically a week away from their first game. Both schools had radar displays. At school one, we didn't see their #1, but did see their #2 - #5 pitchers. None hit 90. Two of them, one a lefty, sat 82-83 and hit 85 a couple of times. The others all sat at around 85 and only a couple of them topped out at 87 and only a couple times each at that.

At school two, their #1 was a lefty sitting 90 and topping out at 92. This guy was the A-Sun pitcher of the year in 2016. However, the #2 was sitting 85, topping out at 87 twice over two innings and this guy was the pitcher of the year in the Cape Cod league last summer. He had great stuff and a very quick arm, but not a 90mph guy. The other pitchers, all freshmen and sophomores sat low-80's. 

After spreading them out over almost 300 D-1 schools, there aren't as many guys throwing 90 as you think. You can be a good D-1 pitcher without throwing 90+. 

roothog66 posted:

I think we sometimes get caught up in the whole "gotta hit 90" thing. In truth, there are a lot of D1 programs and not so many 90mph throwers that every school has a abundance of them. We visited two Mid-majors this weekend and watched their scrimmages. They are basically a week away from their first game. Both schools had radar displays. At school one, we didn't see their #1, but did see their #2 - #5 pitchers. None hit 90. Two of them, one a lefty, sat 82-83 and hit 85 a couple of times. The others all sat at around 85 and only a couple of them topped out at 87 and only a couple times each at that.

At school two, their #1 was a lefty sitting 90 and topping out at 92. This guy was the A-Sun pitcher of the year in 2016. However, the #2 was sitting 85, topping out at 87 twice over two innings and this guy was the pitcher of the year in the Cape Cod league last summer. He had great stuff and a very quick arm, but not a 90mph guy. The other pitchers, all freshmen and sophomores sat low-80's. 

After spreading them out over almost 300 D-1 schools, there aren't as many guys throwing 90 as you think. You can be a good D-1 pitcher without throwing 90+. 

This time of year you won't see a lot of guys throwing their best stuff.  And you and Shoveit4Ks are right, there aren't that many 90 guys across the board.

PG as always hit the nail on the head.