Nice work 2019. And I will add as I have in the past that I have personally gunned D2, D3 & NAIA kids in game and it is not rare to see cruising velocities in the upper 70's and low 80's.  With PG and others starting to focus more on spin rate and spin axis the entire face of recruiting will change. Kids in the 90's will always be in demand. But instead of the kid throwing 86 with average spin you may see more kids throwing 82 with very low or high spin (more likely low).  Technology is changing the way we look at baseball. Now if only the dinosaur coaches who still resist it would step aside!  Disclaimer: not a knock on age - I am an old guy but smart enough to know these physics guys and tech guys are smarter than me!

Great research 2019DAD, very valuable.  My son had the opportunity to play with & against many of these guys in HS and with Trosky Baseball.   Many of these guys are >6'4" and have unique mechanics which lead to incredibly smooth deliveries & ball movement from out of nowhere.  This is just from my limited observation & i am not an expert on delivery or mechanics. But what I do know from experience....(Son was actively recruited by 10 of above schools)  Velocity gets you noticed and on a College Roster for Fall Ball freshman year.  But, that is only the beginning my friends.   The ability to transition to the college level in the classroom and  daily time management (with am weight training, class, practice & studying & eating if you want to gain weight) and MOVEMENT OF THE BALL & ability to paint the corners of the Zone gets you on the Spring College Roster ~ when it really matters. Once there, having the ability to keep up with class when you are traveling & off campus the first 20 of 25 days of the season AND staying healthy keeps you on the mound!

Of the 22 Freshman on son's Roster from Fall of 2014, only 12 remain in 2016

Velocity will still be an easy disqualifier.  I think you will see the same guys with high velocity recruited the way they have always been recruited with spin rate as something that is teachable.  Why waste time teaching spin to someone with low velocity when you can teach it to someone with high velocity.  Velocity is going up not down. Spin rate is nothing new, it's just getting some recognition.

2019DAD, Wow, that is a lot of information and must have taken a fair amount of time and effort. 

Taking one pitcher on your list, Nelson from Trinity U, he was in his junior year when I saw him pitch in late February and talked with the coaches about him.

I saw him in  one inning relief appearances. He was 91-92 with a dominant breaking ball, which he also threw very hard. At points during the season, I understand he touched 93.

infielddad posted:

2019DAD, Wow, that is a lot of information and must have taken a fair amount of time and effort. 

Taking one pitcher on your list, Nelson from Trinity U, he was in his junior year when I saw him pitch in late February and talked with the coaches about him.

I saw him in  one inning relief appearances. He was 91-92 with a dominant breaking ball, which he also threw very hard. At points during the season, I understand he touched 93.

Thanks, infielddad. Yes, it took some time. My son is just at the point where he's gathering a list -- a long list -- of possible schools. This is just part of the information base. The hard part is knowing where a 15-year-old sophomore is going to end up!  

2forU posted:

Velocity will still be an easy disqualifier.  I think you will see the same guys with high velocity recruited the way they have always been recruited with spin rate as something that is teachable.  Why waste time teaching spin to someone with low velocity when you can teach it to someone with high velocity.  Velocity is going up not down. Spin rate is nothing new, it's just getting some recognition.

With all due respect I am not sure where you get your info. Even Kyle boddy on here has recently said we are still struggling to find ways to teach spin rate. If it is so easy why don't pitchers just do it??  And spin rate is pretty new actually. Not sure what you consider new but it's certainly come into its own over last few years. That's pretty new to me. And there have always been 'sneaky fast' guys. We just know why now. And so now they can be identified and recruited. I agree big velocity will always be in demand. But if you read my post I don't compare the 95 guy to the 82 guy.  I compare the 86 guy to the 82 guy. Big difference. There are tons of mid 80's guys in D1 ball. Some even cruising lower 80's. Certainly not a stretch to say they will start considering low 80's guys with unusual spin rate/axis

"My son is just at the point where he's gathering a list -- a long list -- of possible schools. This is just part of the information base. The hard part is knowing where a 15-year-old sophomore is going to end up!  "

Where he ends up is sort of the beginning, even though I fully agree with you that, at his age, it seems like an "end."

My impression is you are getting a pretty good grasp of things. Because I assumed you put in plenty of time and effort, I felt it important to post (I have pretty much stopped posting.)

What I hoped to communicate with the velocity comparison for the Trinity pitcher was how much change there can be (and usually needs to be) with many  players from a point in time in HS into mid-point of a college career.

Having talked with a number of college coaches, and being the Father of one who coached in college, that, to me, it a major difference in how situations are viewed from the player/parents perspective as contrasted with college coaches (other than that top 3-5%)

No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)

Because they succeed or fail on the ability to project a player they see at age 16-17, some college coaches truly have skills in seeing that HS junior or senior and projecting where they can get with good coaching and a ton of hard work by the player. It is that gap, and all the hard work needed, which  makes me cringe when a parent of a recruit posts and indicates their son will be getting playing time as a freshman in college.

Good luck to you and your son along the pathway.  I know the end/beginning seems like a long way off.  It isn't.

IF Dad  "No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)"

Ain't that the truth!  With my only baseball player now a HS senior, I am following former teammates and opponents who are in freshman through junior years of college.  Especially among the pitchers it's astounding how many kids who were really, really tough at-bats in HS have struggled mightily in college. There are a few who go the the other way, but not many.

Also, 2019, I'd count on those numbers climbing.  For example the top incoming freshman RHP at Cal was throwing mid-upper 90's last spring, yet if you looked him up on PG you'd see him at 93 before senior year of HS.

JCG posted:

IF Dad  "No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)"

Ain't that the truth!  With my only baseball player now a HS senior, I am following former teammates and opponents who are in freshman through junior years of college.  Especially among the pitchers it's astounding how many kids who were really, really tough at-bats in HS have struggled mightily in college. There are a few who go the the other way, but not many.

Also, 2019, I'd count on those numbers climbing.  For example the top incoming freshman RHP at Cal was throwing mid-upper 90's last spring, yet if you looked him up on PG you'd see him at 93 before senior year of HS.

Yes, of course. Many, many of these kids threw harder their HS senior springs, and/or the summer after senior year of high school. And then when they got to college, too.

The perspective was a little different -- essentially, how hard do you have to throw to get recruited at X university? Since NLIs are largely signed in Nov. of senior year, I focused on the velo when they were rising seniors and senior fall (though I know that some of these kids may be walk-ons who didn't sign an NLI . . . ). 

Realistically, I would throw out the bottom one or two -- who knows what special circumstances may have led to an individual being on the roster? -- and then focus on the mid-point. Just by way of example, if your goal is Virginia, you probably need to be touching 91-92 senior fall . . . if your goal is William and Mary, more like 87-88 . . . But folks can use the information however they'd like (obviously). I just thought it might be useful to others.

Gotcha.

2019Dad posted:

JCG posted:

IF Dad  "No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)"

Ain't that the truth!  With my only baseball player now a HS senior, I am following former teammates and opponents who are in freshman through junior years of college.  Especially among the pitchers it's astounding how many kids who were really, really tough at-bats in HS have struggled mightily in college. There are a few who go the the other way, but not many.

Also, 2019, I'd count on those numbers climbing.  For example the top incoming freshman RHP at Cal was throwing mid-upper 90's last spring, yet if you looked him up on PG you'd see him at 93 before senior year of HS.

Yes, of course. Many, many of these kids threw harder their HS senior springs, and/or the summer after senior year of high school. And then when they got to college, too.

The perspective was a little different -- essentially, how hard do you have to throw to get recruited at X university? Since NLIs are largely signed in Nov. of senior year, I focused on the velo when they were rising seniors and senior fall (though I know that some of these kids may be walk-ons who didn't sign an NLI . . . ). 

Realistically, I would throw out the bottom one or two -- who knows what special circumstances may have led to an individual being on the roster? -- and then focus on the mid-point. Just by way of example, if your goal is Virginia, you probably need to be touching 91-92 senior fall . . . if your goal is William and Mary, more like 87-88 . . . But folks can use the information however they'd like (obviously). I just thought it might be useful to others.

That's a great snapshot of information.  And, yes, I think that is a good take-away.  In fact, i looked up the lowest velo pitcher listed and, sure enough, he is a low angle, knuckleballer.   Take guys like that away and you have HS kids throwing mostly from mid 80's to low 90's.  Those kids will most likely be throwing high 80's to mid 90's in college.  

Or, they will fail to continue gaining velo and will have to resort to other means to succeed.  Which is fine, but it sure as heck isn't something I would suggest a HS player try to do.  You can have all the movement in the world but the magic equation that is most effective at keeping hitters off balance is the combination of velo that is hard to catch up to along with secondary stuff that is considerably lower velo than the FB.   I don't see that changing any time soon.

"You can have all the movement in the world but the magic equation that is most effective at keeping hitters off balance is the combination of velo that is hard to catch up to along with secondary stuff that is considerably lower velo than the FB."

Cabbagedad,

As usual, very thoughtful and accurate reflection on how things can be so much different at the next level. If I could add  to your thought, it would be that, at the next level, those pitchers who succeed will command each of those pitches in most counts and then be able to adjust for the 2nd and 3rd time through the batting order. Without knowing more, I would have a  suspicion that some of those JCG sees struggling may not have command of their pitches, especially when college hitters make their adjustments.

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Eh, not so much anymore in our experience.

While most of the Ivy commitments this year can be seen on PG site (and there are some low SAT and ACT scores as low as 26), most scores much higher, and that's almost the low point of velocity now too.

Just been through the whole process and seen the Ivy coaches drool over RHP guys over 90, and ignore guys at 85-88.  We've seen effective guys who know how to pitch and sit high 80's passed over for guys who can't throw well, but throw a lot faster.  Having said that, Penn has 4 guys committed (they have way more than 4 commits this year) who are on PG as 88, but one is actually over 90 and has been for some time.  

Yale RC has said average ACT is 31.  So there are guys lower than that, but you'd have to be much much more of a stud then.

Just sayin' 

Twoboys posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Eh, not so much anymore in our experience.

While most of the Ivy commitments this year can be seen on PG site (and there are some low SAT and ACT scores as low as 26), most scores much higher, and that's almost the low point of velocity now too.

Just been through the whole process and seen the Ivy coaches drool over RHP guys over 90, and ignore guys at 85-88.  We've seen effective guys who know how to pitch and sit high 80's passed over for guys who can't throw well, but throw a lot faster.  Having said that, Penn has 4 guys committed (they have way more than 4 commits this year) who are on PG as 88, but one is actually over 90 and has been for some time.  

Yale RC has said average ACT is 31.  So there are guys lower than that, but you'd have to be much much more of a stud then.

Just sayin'  

Twoboys, I just looked at PG for Penn and they only have two 2017 RHPs listed as committed (perhaps there are others not listed on PG?), both of whom have pitched at one or more PG events this summer -- one of the RHPs (Bollu) topped out at 85 in July (though last year touched 87), and the other RHP (Cerulle) topped out at 88 in one PG tournament this summer and 85 at the other PG tournament this summer. There's also a kid listed as a catcher who pitched in a PG tournament this summer (Sichley) and topped out at 88, so maybe he's been recruited as a pitcher?

I don't doubt that the Ivy coaches drool over RHPs who are over 90 (or that the Yale baseball team has an average ACT of 31) . . . That said, the data indicates that Goosegg is correct that the middle of the fairway is probably touching 88 as a rising senior/senior fall.

I think good D1 you generally Need to be at least Close to 90 or above but it also depends on the Organisation.

some organisations might value command, secondary stuff and not Walking guys more and others might value velocity and worry about refining the command later (often doesn't work but if it does there is a high reward).

Ideally you want both in a pitcher of course but those are rare.

I tried to find data for last year at Jupiter but failed. I liked the analysis of spin rates, both high and low with velocity and their correlation to college and pro ball. Lots of factors as mentioned by Journey above affect ability to actually PLAY in college and i've personally seen the mid to low 80's guys carve instead of the mid to high 90's guys.

http://www.baseballamerica.com...#8cMvZmHZYgIhEfBU.97

BTW wouldn't spin rate not help more on 4 seamers than two seamers?

backspin creates "rise" (actually it is just less drop) and for a two seamer you want drop. so spin rate might be more helpfull for a 4 seam pitcher who likes to pitch up in the Zone but not so helpful for a sinkerball pitcher who throws two seamers down in the Zone.

on curves and sliders of course the spin helps too because it increases the downward and lateral break.

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

Kilroy: when you use the term "selective," what type of school are you referring? For example, the University of San Diego has an average for admitted students which baseball players do not need to meet. There is way more latitude to admit a player to USD, then say, MIT.

USD is a fine school; but is not MIT.  

Coaches are not shy about laying out the required scores and grades; the player being recruited will be told whether he makes the academic cut or, if not, what he needs to do (e.g., retake SAT).

disclaimer here, my son is not a pitcher, and I know nothing about pitching.  One thing I have noticed in the last three years of watching kids he has played with is velo wasn't the whole story.   He plays with a RHP, 6-2, 190 that sits 86-88- I've seen the college recruiters guns.  Kid has had some interest, but not one offer.    This is a mystery to me.    Kid is a good athlete, two way player and swings the bat pretty good.  I do know that he was telling the other kids that it was D-1 or nothing- so I'm guessing he would have had an opportunity to play somewhere.  

Had another RHP that graduated last year- was 84-86, ended up going to a good D-3, he was 5-9, 155-160.   I have to believe in this case he just didn't project well.     he did end up being the number 1 starter for the d-3 he went to as a freshman, so it worked out well for him so far. 

My son is at a mid-major.  They have brought in 6 pitchers the past 2 seasons.  Their numbers would match up almost exactly with the mid-major numbers shown above if they were taken before their senior year.  5 of the 6 were throwing 90 by the summer after their senior year in HS.

IMO - if you expect to be in high demand (sophomore recruit type kid) as a pitcher you better be 90 plus or have a frame that projects it easily.

if you are comfortable as a stand by guy  (JR year recruit or SR summer) waiting for the higher velo's to shake out and then see what spots fall between the cracks - you can get by at the 88 range, slightly lower as a lefty but not much.

below 88 you aren't going to get the time of day from any D1 - I have watched many many pitchers in the 84-86 range just get people out repeatedly and there is little to none D1 interest for them.

KilroyJ posted:

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

There is a definite inverse relationship for 90% of D1 schools, however the "range" of that relationship at any given school depends on various factors.  I don't think there is a direct correlation (1 ACT point for each MPH above 90) as there are some basic minimums to be eligible  Let's say you are throwing 95 mph with command - a large Power 5 school might admit you assuming you are NCAA eligible (pretty low standards).  I think in football the relationship is greater - sort of like 1 GPA for each recruiting star.  Once you get that 5 star, folks don't seem to really care.

As you move up the academic scale, I would say there is still an inverse relationship however it does not move the needle as much - maybe move a kid from wait list (throwing 83 mph) to acceptance (throwing 89) but you still have to have some decent grades to begin with.

2019Dad posted:

 

Twoboys, I just looked at PG for Penn and they only have two 2017 RHPs listed as committed (perhaps there are others not listed on PG?), both of whom have pitched at one or more PG events this summer -- one of the RHPs (Bollu) topped out at 85 in July (though last year touched 87), and the other RHP (Cerulle) topped out at 88 in one PG tournament this summer and 85 at the other PG tournament this summer. There's also a kid listed as a catcher who pitched in a PG tournament this summer (Sichley) and topped out at 88, so maybe he's been recruited as a pitcher?

I don't doubt that the Ivy coaches drool over RHPs who are over 90 (or that the Yale baseball team has an average ACT of 31) . . . That said, the data indicates that Goosegg is correct that the middle of the fairway is probably touching 88 as a rising senior/senior fall.

Bollu was hurt last spring didn't pitch entire school season and had limited in the summer. anyone who has seen him knows he is a 90 guy waiting to happen. the 87 mph he has listed was summer of 2015.

This gets frustrating for me i must admit.   No matter how many kids i have gunned personally or how much data 2019 or anyone else presents it keeps getting back to the myth that you have to be a 90's guy or very close.  Its simply not true.  We cant play loose and ignore the facts.  As my disclaimer my son is not any kind of prospect at this point.  2019's kid is for sure.  But it has nothing to do with whether my kid or anyone else's is good enough for 'the next level'.  Its just an undeniable fact that most these kids were NOT 90's guys during their rising senior summer.  Yes many may become 90's guys in college but that is not the debate here.  The debate is what does it take to GET to the next level.  Not be a star there, not even play four years or anything else.  Just GET there.  once there you have your chance to compete.  No guarantees, just your shot.  And the other thing I think we have to differentiate is what does it take to get heavily recruited vs. what will just GET YOU THERE!  Agreed that kid topping at 84 isnt going to have stalkers on him constantly.  Won't see scouts beating down his door and will most likely be a late commit.  But when the smoke clears and the big boys are all committed lots of D1's find themselves scrambling for guys like this to round out their staff.  Why one and not the other?  Last thing they want is a problem in their 35th roster spot so they look for the quality of kid at that point.  Or lets be honest could be a friend of the program, booster kid or relative etc.  When you get to that point your best chance is to be a great kid, teammate and student.  Thats how you throw 84 and make a D1 team.

2020DAD, I think the key you are missing is this. Many people tell kids to go "go where you are wanted, or in some conversations loved" if you aren't in that category you are an after thought...if you add that thought to the process your frustrations are incorrect.

There is a big difference between somebody that, after all the perceived better options have gone, they are now being willing to give you a look see and actually being recruited like a guy they love....

very very big difference.

I don't doubt that there are individual kids who threw harder the week after a PG tournament, or month after, or whatever -- or kids who are secretly hitting 90 in their backyard or something -- but the intent was to gather verified data from lots and lots of pitchers. My off-the-cuff view of the data was sort of 83-85 for D3, 87-88 for mid-major, and 91-92 for top D1 -- those numbers wouldn't be the highest of recruited kids, but would not be the lowest either -- more middle of the pack (again, those are max velos as a rising senior or senior fall -- certainly the numbers could be higher later).

But that's just my view. I suppose the data could be interpreted differently, or discounted entirely, too.

Also, if we're talking only about the top recruits at a particular school -- the ones who are "loved" -- then of course the numbers will be higher on average.

Nice guidelines and data. 

Locally, we have 4 - 2018's that are currently 90+ guys. None, are committed and one has been in front of PG. After the PG event was invited to two UOV's.

Do I believe the others are D1 prospects? Should be, but you never know.  Likely, the only schools that know of them is with in a 2-3 hour radius. So if they desire to play D1, they might get recruited but from my perspective 90 means very little and these local schools have their private fishing pond, unless they go on a national level to pressure recruiting.

Many kids in my area choose JuCo for many reasons, playing time, more games and ability to be drafted sooner.

At the same time D1 rosters tend to turn over about 50% of the previous years incoming class. 

2019Dad posted:

Also, if we're talking only about the top recruits at a particular school -- the ones who are "loved" -- then of course the numbers will be higher on average.

JMO but yes that is the only thing I consider. again IMO if you aren't that kid at whatever school you are looking at you probably should keep moving.

If you think it's frustrating to read posts from everyone who says that you need to throw 90s to be recruited - wait until you have a RHP who throws 84-85, try to help him get recruited D1 and see how frustrating it becomes!

The problem with the scenario you describe above is the sheer number of RHPs who throw in this range - it describes virtually every starting pitcher we saw the summer between my 2016's Jr and Sr year and most of the RHPs on his summer team.  So there are a lot of RHPs waiting for the spots to be filled and dust to settle, smoke to clear, etc - and then you're talking about waiting until Nov (or so) of Sr. year to find a spot with most likely a preferred walk-on spot at best to a D1.  And that assumes that out of the colleges you have been in contact with, have seen you, etc there is one or two who didn't fill the spots they had for RHPs and there is a match and you get to them first instead of any of the 100+ other RHPs they have seen the last 2 summers.  

Can it happen?  Sure.  Does it happen often?  Not from what I've seen here in the northeast the last three seasons.   Most of those players end up finding spots at another level before they get to that stage. 

old_school posted:

2019Dad posted:

Also, if we're talking only about the top recruits at a particular school -- the ones who are "loved" -- then of course the numbers will be higher on average.

JMO but yes that is the only thing I consider. again IMO if you aren't that kid at whatever school you are looking at you probably should keep moving.

That's a valid perspective. I'm (mostly) with you -- the exceptions I would make is for schools like the Ivies or military academies -- IMO just getting in is a tremendous accomplishment, even if it is as the last recruit!

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

2019Dad posted:

old_school posted:

2019Dad posted:

Also, if we're talking only about the top recruits at a particular school -- the ones who are "loved" -- then of course the numbers will be higher on average.

JMO but yes that is the only thing I consider. again IMO if you aren't that kid at whatever school you are looking at you probably should keep moving.

That's a valid perspective. I'm (mostly) with you -- the exceptions I would make is for schools like the Ivies or military academies -- IMO just getting in is a tremendous accomplishment, even if it is as the last recruit!

that is certainly a fair point.

To get on the roster you need to be recruited.  Even at the D3 level there aren't really try-outs.  There aren't 2250 RHPs out there who throw 88+ (at least I don't think so) but there are thousands of players who throw mid 80s.  Lots of them never go to a PG event and you'll never see a listing of their velo anywhere.  

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

this is all probably true, I certainly wouldn't argue with it. It also probably explains why the transfer never enrolled rate after the freshman season is about 60 percent or even higher. if that is the model you are looking for, well there ya go you go it. unfortunately way to many of them will be - See you at XYZ juco next year!!

One thing to consider in determining which 84-86 guys get a shot at D1 is what else they bring to the table.  One of my RHP guys from last year topped out at 84 at PG event fall of senior year.  Fantastic secondary pitches.  Wasn't getting the love from the more local D1's.  Went a little further north to a camp after we talked to head coach.  Not sure which one, but either bat speed or exit velocity was 104MPH top and averaged 99 MPH on all swings at the camp....light tower power.   So obviously if he can make some contact there is possibility of hitting if he can't get guys out on the mound.  Fast forward to fall of freshman year of college and he hit 92mph pitching a bullpen last week and as of Friday had given up 1 run all fall on the mound.  I guess they knew what they were looking for.

video video video, and get a rock solid list of schools that are in the target range and start sophomore year.  Coaches can see things on video that might be worth discussion.  Throwing 90 is one thing, throwing 87 with great command, knowing how to pitch, will also be enough for many programs.  One of the most important factors is a GPA higher than 3.5, so the money doesn't hit the athletic budget. 

BigJay posted:

video video video, and get a rock solid list of schools that are in the target range and start sophomore year.  Coaches can see things on video that might be worth discussion.  Throwing 90 is one thing, throwing 87 with great command, knowing how to pitch, will also be enough for many programs.  One of the most important factors is a GPA higher than 3.5, so the money doesn't hit the athletic budget. 

Bravo to Bigjay!!  Spot On!  And they will go lower than 87 for that freebie.  As for an earlier comment that to get on a roster you have to be recruited...  this is simply not true.  I suppose maybe its semantics and we have to define 'being recruited' but there are many kids who do a great job of getting themselves out there, get a luke warm response at best, then get that late call because they have a few spots to fill cause they didn't land choices 1 thru 10,000 (ok, slight hyperbole).  If you want to call that being recruited then fine I will grant you can not be on a roster unless recruited.  

Twoboys posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Eh, not so much anymore in our experience.

While most of the Ivy commitments this year can be seen on PG site (and there are some low SAT and ACT scores as low as 26),

 

 

 

A number of the Ivy Commits aren't on PG. They focus on either school specific camps or the high academic (Headfirst, Stanford, Showball, Top 96  high academic, showcase RedBird started) showcases where the Ivies/Patriot/Colonial cluster. So if you look at PG and see that three committed in a class, it's likely more and depending on year, possibly filled. Like anything else, some Ivies focus on certain recruiting sites (or even geographic areas and cities where they've had success) and others cast a much wider net. In all cases though, they recruit nationally.

One other thing that has to be taken into account is "when" they were offered. Some of those 85-88mph guys were offered and committed as sophomores when they were already throwing that # and haven't improved. A 2020 throwing 86 is in a different recruiting world than a 2017 throwing 87.

My kid is one of those "standby" guys. He has offers, but moist schools are waiting to see how things shake out. One of the worst things that has happened with him was throwing 87 last January. He came back in June at a showcase sick and topped out at 84, then threw 86 at the PG Jr. Nationals. After that, was up to 88 at three straight events. Without that 87 in January, it looks like a lot of improvement over the season. With the 87, he looks stagnant.

Another weird recruiting story involves the fact that sometimes there is confusion. My son was contacted by a Power 5 school that said they had seen him play and were very interested. They asked for transcripts and his schedule for the Arizona Fall Classic. They showed up at his first game and asked where he was. My son had sent them an email telling them he would be pitching our third game. As it turns out, they weren't interested in him as a pitcher. The were recruiting him as a first baseman. They saw his batting practice round at the PG Jr. Nationals where he actually killed the ball. I'm not even sure why he took BP since he was there as a PO. In fact, he's only had about 6 ab's all season. I haven't been selling him as a position player and he's only batted in a few pinch hitting spots. My thoughts were that no one is looking for a kid who runs an 8.11 60 even as an F3 and, while he can hit, I don't like him taking at bats away from kids who are trying to be recruited as position players. Bottom line is that you never know.

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

Yeah, but I do think it is reasonable to say there are 2,000+ HS P's that PROJECT to throw 88+.   

So, 2020, I'm still trying to nail down what's behind your ongoing agenda with this topic...

Let's say you have a HS junior or rising senior who throws 82-84, pitches effectively, has decent movement (related to spin rate ) and has had good success at the HS level.  His genetics, body type, maturity, mechanics, etc. don't point to much additional velo gain.  He is, like most, not fully educated on the realities of the college recruiting scene.  He just thinks he wants to play D1 ball.  Do you tell him to go for it and maybe try to walk on at a D1 or do you try to help him find a school/level where he has a much higher chance/likelihood to make the team and contribute at some point?

How many HS players do you think would actually want to go through the efforts it would take to make the roster of a D1 school and be satisfied with the likely scenario of then being cut in the fall or prior to sophomore year?  Do you think that "getting onto the roster" as the end goal is a strategy that puts the player in a position to succeed?

Twoboys posted:

Just wait is all I can say to those who have not gone through the process.  You can start early.  You can have great grades and great scores.  You can have excellent command and awesome secondary stuff.  STILL IT IS A TOUGH ROAD, especially for the Ivy pitching spots.  They do NOT take 7 pitchers a year, they only have 5-7 slots TOTAL.  All of the guys we know who are 84-88 and did not get D1 love have for the most part committed to a high academic D3 as few want the risk of trying to get in and then trying to make the team.

Also, not only the point above that PG does not capture all of the pitchers throwing hard, there is also no separation for RHP vs LHP and of course there is some velocity leeway given by some for a LHP.  

The pitchers I listed are all RHP, for the very simple reason that my son is a righty, so the velocity necessary for a LHP was irrelevant to me. But I assume that LHP could be a bit lower.

To your point about PG, of course they don't capture everyone. I found that mid-majors on the West Coast (for example, Cal-Poly) and most D3s had far fewer kids who had thrown at a PG event during their rising senior summer or senior fall. Other schools (for example, Virginia) had virtually every single kid in the PG database, including having thrown at a PG event their rising senior summer or senior fall.  

The information I provided is just information that is publicly available, which I gathered and collated. The aim in doing so was simply to help in identifying which schools might be realistic targets for my son to pursue -- like, if he's topping out at 87 as a rising senior, Virginia is completely, totally unrealistic. Once I had the data put together, I thought others might find it useful. 

Great info 2019dad.  Excellent work on this subject. 

KilroyJ posted:

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

One simple measure I've found in regards specifically with RHPs and high academic schools is what I now call RPI, "Righty Pitcher Index."  Focused solely at RHPs looking to go high academic, the golden number for getting on those radars (I believe) is 120.

Formula:  FB velo + ACT score = 120

Examples: FB: 90mph +  ACT: 30 = 120

or FB: 88mph  +  ACT: 32 = 120

or FB: 86mph  + ACT: 34 = 120

or FB: 93mph  +  ACT:27 = 120

or FB: 94mph  +  ACT 26 = 120

Not sure what the parameters of this are though?  

Not sure a kid with FB: 102mph with an ACT: 18 is playing college ball???  But I'll bet a kid with FB: 84 and ACT: 36 is! 

Not scientific, but just my armchair observations

I think overall the premise that you must throw X to be recruited is somewhat true, but I never like to paint everything with the same brush. I am a case by case guy, and there are just far too many variables.  What is the connection the kid has with the program?  (Coach, family, etc.) What is the families economic condition?  (At the really expensive schools this can play a large part.  Ryan was offered $52,000 out of $57,000 at a very expensive out of state school.  All of that was based on our economics.)   Where are you from?  Are you in state or out of state?  What is your projectability?  Are you an RHP or LHP?

There are just too many variables to cross teams off your list, or to say that x school won't recruit you unless you are throwing x hard.  It's just not the case.

cabbagedad posted:

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

Yeah, but I do think it is reasonable to say there are 2,000+ HS P's that PROJECT to throw 88+.   

So, 2020, I'm still trying to nail down what's behind your ongoing agenda with this topic...

Let's say you have a HS junior or rising senior who throws 82-84, pitches effectively, has decent movement (related to spin rate ) and has had good success at the HS level.  His genetics, body type, maturity, mechanics, etc. don't point to much additional velo gain.  He is, like most, not fully educated on the realities of the college recruiting scene.  He just thinks he wants to play D1 ball.  Do you tell him to go for it and maybe try to walk on at a D1 or do you try to help him find a school/level where he has a much higher chance/likelihood to make the team and contribute at some point?

How many HS players do you think would actually want to go through the efforts it would take to make the roster of a D1 school and be satisfied with the likely scenario of then being cut in the fall or prior to sophomore year?  Do you think that "getting onto the roster" as the end goal is a strategy that puts the player in a position to succeed?

Great questions Cabbage!  First what is my agenda?  Just the truth thats all, nothing hidden.  And yes it is ongoing because there is ongoing misinformation.  As for the pitcher you describe...  yes its tough sledding for him, he will have to distinguish himself somehow.  I would NEVER advise someone to walk on anywhere at any level unless it was the absolute last option.  As for getting cut, its a risk an athlete needs to be willing to take.  Bet on yourself!  Is getting on a roster the end goal?  For some yes, for others no.  Believe it or not there are those who are just happy being part of a team.  Knew a guy who was a D1 bullpen catcher essentially.  Got all the team gear and had a blast.  It was the school he wanted to go to and he was not really D1 talent so this was great for him.  Could have gone to a smaller school for baseball but this was the school he wanted his degree from!

It is extremely misleading that Ivy League schools don't attend and follow and recruit at PG events. They even attend our top events. Truth is we see all of them during the year,several of them attend multiple events.  I think they all suscribe to our scouting service.  I would argue, and it has been this way for many years, there are a lot more PG players at Ivy League colleges than anyone else, maybe more than all others combined.

It is not as high a percentage of players as the power conferences, but to say they don't follow PG closely would be false.   Must remember the academic requirements include a very small percentage of players, but they still want the most talented kids they can find.

Hard for me to figure out where this thread is going and why.

2019DAD  did considerable research and provided hard data broken down by D1, D2 and D3.  He clearly stated this was velocity only (and there are other factors).  The original post provides relevant information for those with HS RHP in terms of "velocity" in HS and where those pitchers end up in college. 

So long as anyone reading this thread does  not assume that the velocity number alone was the only factor in getting recruited and ending up at the school listed, the information should be very helpful...as one starting point for determining what type of options a player may have for college.

So long as the reader does not assume that the HS velocity numbers equate to success or time on the mound in college, the information is very helpful.

So long as the reader knows there are many other factors which go into the process (including many college coaches who will only recruit pitchers they have seen) this information can be very helpful.

It appears some folks want to turn this thread into a discussion of the "other factors."  "I knew a guy too" but I don't see how talking about the exception (rare on in my view) helps this thread and the valuable data point it could provide for others, when placed in the perspective it was offered by 2019DAD.

As others have done, I would think 2019Dad deserves a round of

Agreed

Yes, that was some excellent research.

People can go here to checkout more PG numbers. You can Click the college box, pop up will enable you to scroll to any college and see recruits with PG ties. You can then click on the players name and see his profile.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Col...legeCommitments.aspx

2020dad posted:

cabbagedad posted:

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

Yeah, but I do think it is reasonable to say there are 2,000+ HS P's that PROJECT to throw 88+.   

So, 2020, I'm still trying to nail down what's behind your ongoing agenda with this topic...

Let's say you have a HS junior or rising senior who throws 82-84, pitches effectively, has decent movement (related to spin rate ) and has had good success at the HS level.  His genetics, body type, maturity, mechanics, etc. don't point to much additional velo gain.  He is, like most, not fully educated on the realities of the college recruiting scene.  He just thinks he wants to play D1 ball.  Do you tell him to go for it and maybe try to walk on at a D1 or do you try to help him find a school/level where he has a much higher chance/likelihood to make the team and contribute at some point?

How many HS players do you think would actually want to go through the efforts it would take to make the roster of a D1 school and be satisfied with the likely scenario of then being cut in the fall or prior to sophomore year?  Do you think that "getting onto the roster" as the end goal is a strategy that puts the player in a position to succeed?

Great questions Cabbage!  First what is my agenda?  Just the truth thats all, nothing hidden.  And yes it is ongoing because there is ongoing misinformation.  As for the pitcher you describe...  yes its tough sledding for him, he will have to distinguish himself somehow.  I would NEVER advise someone to walk on anywhere at any level unless it was the absolute last option.  As for getting cut, its a risk an athlete needs to be willing to take.  Bet on yourself!  Is getting on a roster the end goal?  For some yes, for others no.  Believe it or not there are those who are just happy being part of a team.  Knew a guy who was a D1 bullpen catcher essentially.  Got all the team gear and had a blast.  It was the school he wanted to go to and he was not really D1 talent so this was great for him.  Could have gone to a smaller school for baseball but this was the school he wanted his degree from!

Thanks 2020.  I'm still hung up on some of this.  Was the D1 bullpen C recent or back in the day?  I agree that, for some, the idea of being part of the D1 team is a cool thought.   But, with today's realities for those kids - limited roster spots, even more limited travel spots, enormity of time and work commitment, removal of ability to work a job to offset college expenses, increased pressure on coaches to win and, thus, constantly try to upgrade every roster spot, etc., this cool thought just doesn't pass the logic/common sense test when push comes to shove.

I would think that for every one kid who may consider such a sacrifice with no realistic chance of PT, there is an astronomical number of kids who either get cut and hang 'em up, choose a more reachable level or decide the math doesn't add up and just become regular students.  And, as others have pointed out, that pool of players that fits the mold I described is so large, it is nearly impossible to "distinguish himself somehow" as you stated.  So, the only shot at D1 is to try and walk on.  

I still think it is much more sound advice to steer the kid in my original scenario toward a program where he has a reasonable chance to make the squad and contribute on the field.  And, I still think it is more sound advice to tell the players and parents that come here to the site to find a match where there is mutual interest, a reasonable playing match and that likelihood of a chance to compete.

(That said, here's an ironic twist that somewhat supports your point - I do have a catcher that came out of our program, torn labrum ended his college playing dream, somehow connected with his D1 college as a "team manager", eventually began catching some bullpens, does get some of the swag, doesn't travel so not quite the time commitment and he loves being part of it.  Still, that was just freshman year and not quite the full sacrifice a rostered player would be expected to give.  And, he doesn't have the likelihood of being cut hanging over his head.  It will be interesting to see how long he sticks with it.)

 PS - Sorry, after posting this lengthy piece, I saw Infielddad's post and he is right.  We probably shouldn't be drifting too much and distracting from the great info that 2019 provided.  I'll try to stay more directly on topic.

Thanks again, 2019 

PGStaff posted:

It is extremely misleading that Ivy League schools don't attend and follow and recruit at PG events. They even attend our top events. Truth is we see all of them during the year,several of them attend multiple events.  I think they all suscribe to our scouting service.  I would argue, and it has been this way for many years, there are a lot more PG players at Ivy League colleges than anyone else, maybe more than all others combined.

It is not as high a percentage of players as the power conferences, but to say they don't follow PG closely would be false.   Must remember the academic requirements include a very small percentage of players, but they still want the most talented kids they can find.

my 2 cents since i saw it happen a couple weeks ago in ft Myers underclass WWBA, a ivy league school was at our game from beginning to about the 6th inn, most of  the staff and coaches knew him and he was talking to our coaches before the game, asking about GPAs and such , he was standing on the opps team side that we were playing, i didn't know it at the time but he was scouting/watching  my son, i guess he got his attention,now when my son hit a 2run  bomb to deep center  , he really was interested to where he went up to the PG score keeper to find out my sons info and it just  happen to be  some parents from our team sitting there and he starting going back and fourth asking my kids GPA and how he liked my son catching /hitting , since my sons GPA  was good he liked it even more, when this Coach was leaving he passed by me and gave a compliment about my kid that was huge. now we were not  thinking about IVY's  B4 this , but now we are LOL. 

Yes cabbage back in the day.  And yes things are much different now.  And as usual when we disagree I think we come to some common ground eventually.  I agree with you that most kids just give up the fight.  Which lessens the competition severely.  I can not agree however that you can not distinguish yourself.  GPA is a great start.  Attitude is also in there.  But like you I too am happy to bow out of this and return to our regularly scheduled programming!  One thing I like about you cabbage is you always ask clarifying questions instead of just going attack mode.  It is appreciated.  We have disagreed a few times but I never walk away from it feeling angry.  

2020dad posted:

Yes cabbage back in the day.  And yes things are much different now.  And as usual when we disagree I think we come to some common ground eventually.  I agree with you that most kids just give up the fight.  Which lessens the competition severely.  I can not agree however that you can not distinguish yourself.  GPA is a great start.  Attitude is also in there.  But like you I too am happy to bow out of this and return to our regularly scheduled programming!  One thing I like about you cabbage is you always ask clarifying questions instead of just going attack mode.  It is appreciated.  We have disagreed a few times but I never walk away from it feeling angry.  

#1 Assistant Coach posted:

KilroyJ posted:

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

One simple measure I've found in regards specifically with RHPs and high academic schools is what I now call RPI, "Righty Pitcher Index."  Focused solely at RHPs looking to go high academic, the golden number for getting on those radars (I believe) is 120.

RPI Formula:  FB velo + ACT score = 120 (or as close to it as possible)

Examples: FB: 90mph +  ACT: 30 = 120

or FB: 88mph  +  ACT: 32 = 120

or FB: 86mph  + ACT: 34 = 120

or FB: 93mph  +  ACT:27 = 120

or FB: 94mph  +  ACT 26 = 120

Not sure what the parameters of this are though?  

Not sure a kid with FB: 102mph with an ACT: 18 is playing college ball???  But I'll bet a kid with FB: 84 and ACT: 36 is! 

Not scientific, but just my armchair observations

Just did a spot check on my "RPI-120 Theory" on a couple of the high academic schools and RHPs that 2019 Dad highlighted in OP.  Both fell short of the #120 with the velo/ACT#s they each had posted on PG.  One kid was (FB+ACT=117, the other was FB+ACT=115).  Those could have been older velo #s and maybe they hit higher velos at the college's camp or at another showcase or tournament?  Who knows?  But in both cases, aim high for (120) and hit 117 or even 115, and both kids landed on high academic D-1 rosters as RHPs. 

I will add, as another thread recently sought to distinguish between High Academic Power-5s and Ivys, this Golden #120 goes out the window with Power-5 Academics I believe.  The #120 is for schools where the coaching staff truly kow-tows to the admissions office and not the other way around.  I do believe at some High Academic Power-5s the HCs tend to get who they want due to a more flexible admissions process.

I realize OP was talking JUST VELO but #s can be misleading if taken out of context.  So many variables in play.  But for me, the two most core, base, fundamental, and two I felt son had most control over?  ACT and Velo.  Now, as far as throwing strikes?????????  I have no formula for that!!

JMO.

2019Dad posted:

I thought other posters or just folks browsing might be interested in this information.

The idea was to see what is really required, velocity-wise, by HS senior fall, using real data that is publicly available with respect to actual players. (Of course, there are other factors to pitching than simply velocity, but velo is an important component).

Below is a list of the max velocity recorded by PG for all RHP on certain current college rosters (available online) who also (1) are in the PG database and (2) had a velocity recorded during the summer before senior year, or in Sept - Jan of senior year.

In a few cases, the highest velocity was actually earlier in their high school years, but if there was a velo in the PG database from May of HS junior year to January of HS senior year, I included the kid and used the highest velocity. Also, in a couple cases, the kid pitched a PG event after graduating high school, and reached a higher velocity, but I did not include that higher velocity, on the theory that 99% of the kids are recruited before they graduate from high school.

If the kid's only PG velo was from earlier (for example, summer after HS freshman year), I did not include him because I didn't want to skew the numbers lower. Same thing with kids who are on a current roster but are noted as a transfer from another college. For two-way players, I included them if RHP was listed first, under the theory that their pitching played a significant role in their recruitment.

Of course, there are also RHP on every roster who aren't in the PG database, or who had no velocity readings from the summer before senior year, or senior fall -- and for some rosters, it was the majority of pitchers. Since I had no easy way of getting data on those kids, I did not include them.

Anyway, here is the information:

POWER 5

• Duke (ACC): 87 (Glavin); 89 (Davis); 90 (Kovachik); 92 (Blum); 93 (Williams); 94 (Pesto)
• Notre Dame (ACC): 87 (Vorsheck); 88 (Smoyer); 88 (Hearne); 89 (Connolly); 89 (Combs); 89 (McCarty); 90 (Solomon); 90 (Hock); 91 (Bielak); 91 (Ruibal); 92 (Bass)
• Virginia (ACC): 85 (Shambora); 89 (Harrington); 90 (Bettinger); 90 (Page); 91 (Doyle); 92 (Roberts); 92 (Murdock); 94 (Sperling); 94 (Casey)
• Wake Forest (ACC): 76 (Casstevens); 81 (Awad); 86 (Dunshee); 87 (Loepprich); 88 (Supple); 88 (McCarren); 89 (Dee); 90 (Johnson); 90 (Farish); 90 (Johnstone); 91 (McSweeney)
• Northwestern (B1G): 84 (Vukovich); 86 (Christie); 87 (Davis); 88 (Levy); 88 (Schindler); 88 (Cauley); 89 (Rosman); 89 (Lass)
• Michigan (B1G): 85 (Lozer); 86 (Wysocki); 88 (Karcher); 90 (Vancena); 90 (Lehmann); 90 (Nutof); 91 (Miller); 91 (Pall)
• USC (Pac-12): 86 (Vaccaro); 87 (Perryman); 88 (Lunn); 90 (Bates); 92 (Hart); 92 (Wegman); 93 (Dyrda); 94 (Crouse);
• Cal (Pac-12): 86 (Bain); 88 (Flemer); 89 (Martinez); 89 (Buckley); 90 (Schick); 90 (Jeffries); 92 (Dodson)

 

MID-MAJOR

• Cal-Poly (Big West): 87 (Lee); 88 (Colen); 91 (Uelmen)
• UCSB (Big West): 84 (Bieber); 86 (Chandler); 87 (Davis); 88 (Chapman); 89 (Keever)
• St. Mary's (WCC): 84 (Braman); 86 (Strotman); 87 (Holdgrafer); 88 (Buckley)
• Bucknell (Patriot): 81 (Stephens); 84 (Strahm); 85 (Gottesman); 85 (Gambon); 89 (Robichaux); 89 (Tailor)
• Army (Patriot): 84 (French); 88 (Messina); 87 (Ball); 88 (Carte); 89 (Verrill)
• Columbia (Ivy): 86 (O'Brien); 86 (Barr); 87 (West); 88 (Gannaway)
• Dartmouth (Ivy): 85 (Fossand); 85 (Michel); 87 (Fagler); 87 (Bygum); 87 (Danielak); 88 (Bubala); 90 (Fichthorn); 90 (Johnson)
• Davidson (A-10): 85 (Barry); 85 (White); 86 (Leonard); 86 (Hopkins); 87 (Gordon); 87 (Spear); 88 (Plebani); 88 (Sutherland); 89 (Hudson)
• William and Mary (CAA): 84 (Toner); 84 (Fletcher); 85 (Powers); 85 (Yoest); 86 (Butts); 87 (Brown); 88 (Waldman); 88 (Bailey); 88 (Lohr); 89 (White)
• Rice (CUSA): 88 (Otto); 88 (Parthasarathy); 89 (Orewiler); 89 (Schwarz); 90 (Moss); 90 (Gayle); 90 (Silber); 92 (Canterino); 93 (Salinas)

 

DIVISION 2

• UCSD (CCAA): 85 (Lucke); 85 (Mora); 88 (DiPoto); 88 (Nelson); 89 (Jarvis)

 

DIVISION 3

• Amherst (NESCAC): 84 (Z. Brown); 84 (Baldi); 84 (Vasiliu); 86 (Volle); 86 (Dow); 86 (D. Brown)
• Bowdoin (NESCAC): 81 (Osterholtz); 83 (Lopez); 85 (Arms); 85 (Wilhoite)
• Williams (NESCAC): 82 (O'Brien); 87 (Capute)
• Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC): 82 (Kannappan); 86 (Gerics)
• Trinity (SCAC): 81 (Coffman); 83 (Nix); 83 (Wimberley); 84 (Cubley); 84 (Turner); 85 (McGee); 85 (Pontikes); 86 (Nelson); 86 (Williams)

Pardon my ignorance but are you talking about only RHPs or also position players?  Eg. Catcher SS, OF?   Some of the posts talk about bat speed too.   

Goblue33 posted:

Pardon my ignorance but are you talking about only RHPs or also position players?  Eg. Catcher SS, OF?   Some of the posts talk about bat speed too.   

RHPs only.

One young man that 2019 Dad lists in OP on one of the Power-5 Academic rosters as an RHP I know well.  He nailed the RPI "Golden #120" with a PG-FB: 90, and a PG-ACT: 30. 

The 90/30 combo is a hard to beat one-two punch for the RHP looking to be the "buyer" at just about any school he wants.  This young man turned down Ivy offers to take his 90/30 to a Power-5 Academic.  Obviously, after the 90/30 is documented, other factors must be in alignment: GPA, throwing strikes, off speed, etc, etc. 

All very unscientific observations about RHPs, velo, and college recruiting. 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Pla...ofile.aspx?ID=181546

Not a very impressive profile.  Doesn't even list the speed of his fastball.   Must be nice to be a crafty lefty.   

I know this is only anecdotal and I cringe to put this out there as it is my son but he is living this exact scenario right now as a freshman at what in recent years been a top 40 program but not in a power 5 conference. 

18 pitchers in fall camp. I think of those 14 are RHP.  Throw out the submarine guy so down to 13.  Of those I think at least 6-7 cruise comfortably above 90. 

I've said it before son is an outlier. Topped at 85 coming out of HS.  Now more like sitting 85-87. 

First team all state by the TX HS coaches last year, but guess what happened in first fall outing that was only fastball and changeups. He got smoked. 85 mph bp basically.   College hitters don't miss many 90 mph fastballs when they know they are coming.  85 they miss rarely if ever  

Until he could start pitching backwards with a high spin rate slider he was pretty helpless at that velo against college quality  hitters. Now he has a chance to win with fastball when they sit on slider.  He has done well this fall  but nothing is guaranteed.

Cabbage said it well earlier. It is extremely hard to make that jump. It's a battle and a grind.  Kids have their own criteria when looking at schools. My son wanted to win and play in the post season. He ended up at his dream school.  He has confidence he will earn his innings like he always has. 

I understand when folks say 90+ etc I really do but I also think it is easy as a player and a parent to let others define what you should chase after.  I say chase that dream school until they say no but also be wise enough to have a plan B.  Know when to pull the plug on dream chasing and move to plan B. I still see lots of players get stuck and it's fall of senior year of HS and now what.  Son had several backup juco offers just in case.

This is a very worthy discussion IMO.  Just like anything I think knowledge is power in this recruiting game.  I don't think my son would be at a top program as an outlier if not for everything I started to learn here when he was in 8th grade.  

that Indians pitcher tonight threw pretty soft, mostly 87-88 very rarely touching 90 with his FB. He is a lefty but I'm surprised he made it to the Majors especially with a pretty conventional delivery (no submarine or sidearm).

you do see some older guys in the upper 80s in the Majors but to see a 24 yo conventional delivery pitcher making it is pretty rare.

of course for college Standards cruising 86-88 and touching 90 as a lefty is not slow but for mlb in These days it definitely is.

2019Dad posted:

I thought other posters or just folks browsing might be interested in this information.

The idea was to see what is really required, velocity-wise, by HS senior fall, using real data that is publicly available with respect to actual players. (Of course, there are other factors to pitching than simply velocity, but velo is an important component).

Below is a list of the max velocity recorded by PG for all RHP on certain current college rosters (available online) who also (1) are in the PG database and (2) had a velocity recorded during the summer before senior year, or in Sept - Jan of senior year.

In a few cases, the highest velocity was actually earlier in their high school years, but if there was a velo in the PG database from May of HS junior year to January of HS senior year, I included the kid and used the highest velocity. Also, in a couple cases, the kid pitched a PG event after graduating high school, and reached a higher velocity, but I did not include that higher velocity, on the theory that 99% of the kids are recruited before they graduate from high school.

If the kid's only PG velo was from earlier (for example, summer after HS freshman year), I did not include him because I didn't want to skew the numbers lower. Same thing with kids who are on a current roster but are noted as a transfer from another college. For two-way players, I included them if RHP was listed first, under the theory that their pitching played a significant role in their recruitment.

Of course, there are also RHP on every roster who aren't in the PG database, or who had no velocity readings from the summer before senior year, or senior fall -- and for some rosters, it was the majority of pitchers. Since I had no easy way of getting data on those kids, I did not include them.

Anyway, here is the information:

POWER 5

• Duke (ACC): 87 (Glavin); 89 (Davis); 90 (Kovachik); 92 (Blum); 93 (Williams); 94 (Pesto)
• Notre Dame (ACC): 87 (Vorsheck); 88 (Smoyer); 88 (Hearne); 89 (Connolly); 89 (Combs); 89 (McCarty); 90 (Solomon); 90 (Hock); 91 (Bielak); 91 (Ruibal); 92 (Bass)
• Virginia (ACC): 85 (Shambora); 89 (Harrington); 90 (Bettinger); 90 (Page); 91 (Doyle); 92 (Roberts); 92 (Murdock); 94 (Sperling); 94 (Casey)
• Wake Forest (ACC): 76 (Casstevens); 81 (Awad); 86 (Dunshee); 87 (Loepprich); 88 (Supple); 88 (McCarren); 89 (Dee); 90 (Johnson); 90 (Farish); 90 (Johnstone); 91 (McSweeney)
• Northwestern (B1G): 84 (Vukovich); 86 (Christie); 87 (Davis); 88 (Levy); 88 (Schindler); 88 (Cauley); 89 (Rosman); 89 (Lass)
• Michigan (B1G): 85 (Lozer); 86 (Wysocki); 88 (Karcher); 90 (Vancena); 90 (Lehmann); 90 (Nutof); 91 (Miller); 91 (Pall)
• USC (Pac-12): 86 (Vaccaro); 87 (Perryman); 88 (Lunn); 90 (Bates); 92 (Hart); 92 (Wegman); 93 (Dyrda); 94 (Crouse);
• Cal (Pac-12): 86 (Bain); 88 (Flemer); 89 (Martinez); 89 (Buckley); 90 (Schick); 90 (Jeffries); 92 (Dodson)

 

MID-MAJOR

• Cal-Poly (Big West): 87 (Lee); 88 (Colen); 91 (Uelmen)
• UCSB (Big West): 84 (Bieber); 86 (Chandler); 87 (Davis); 88 (Chapman); 89 (Keever)
• St. Mary's (WCC): 84 (Braman); 86 (Strotman); 87 (Holdgrafer); 88 (Buckley)
• Bucknell (Patriot): 81 (Stephens); 84 (Strahm); 85 (Gottesman); 85 (Gambon); 89 (Robichaux); 89 (Tailor)
• Army (Patriot): 84 (French); 88 (Messina); 87 (Ball); 88 (Carte); 89 (Verrill)
• Columbia (Ivy): 86 (O'Brien); 86 (Barr); 87 (West); 88 (Gannaway)
• Dartmouth (Ivy): 85 (Fossand); 85 (Michel); 87 (Fagler); 87 (Bygum); 87 (Danielak); 88 (Bubala); 90 (Fichthorn); 90 (Johnson)
• Davidson (A-10): 85 (Barry); 85 (White); 86 (Leonard); 86 (Hopkins); 87 (Gordon); 87 (Spear); 88 (Plebani); 88 (Sutherland); 89 (Hudson)
• William and Mary (CAA): 84 (Toner); 84 (Fletcher); 85 (Powers); 85 (Yoest); 86 (Butts); 87 (Brown); 88 (Waldman); 88 (Bailey); 88 (Lohr); 89 (White)
• Rice (CUSA): 88 (Otto); 88 (Parthasarathy); 89 (Orewiler); 89 (Schwarz); 90 (Moss); 90 (Gayle); 90 (Silber); 92 (Canterino); 93 (Salinas)

 

DIVISION 2

• UCSD (CCAA): 85 (Lucke); 85 (Mora); 88 (DiPoto); 88 (Nelson); 89 (Jarvis)

 

DIVISION 3

• Amherst (NESCAC): 84 (Z. Brown); 84 (Baldi); 84 (Vasiliu); 86 (Volle); 86 (Dow); 86 (D. Brown)
• Bowdoin (NESCAC): 81 (Osterholtz); 83 (Lopez); 85 (Arms); 85 (Wilhoite)
• Williams (NESCAC): 82 (O'Brien); 87 (Capute)
• Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC): 82 (Kannappan); 86 (Gerics)
• Trinity (SCAC): 81 (Coffman); 83 (Nix); 83 (Wimberley); 84 (Cubley); 84 (Turner); 85 (McGee); 85 (Pontikes); 86 (Nelson); 86 (Williams)

awesome work! and thanks for stating the thread...good stuff.  Found the below attachment on the internet the other day that seems somewhat relevant to the topic...

Great stuff, I like to see hard data that confirms what my eyes tell me. Went to the B12 tourney a few years ago in brick town and saw Baylor vs West Virginia, Baylor rhp 84-86  // WVa lefty 79, never touched 80. This was on the stadium gun.

2019Dad,

Love the research you have done and very interesting stuff.  Did you happen to look at any LHP velos in your research?  I would guess they might be 2-3 MPH lower, but at power 5 it may be the same.  Just curious and thanks again!

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

mdschert posted:

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

Proof that throwing hard makes you taller.

Go44dad posted:

mdschert posted:

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

Proof that throwing hard makes you taller.

I knew there was some sort of relationship between the two!!

phillyinNJ posted:

awesome work! and thanks for stating the thread...good stuff.  Found the below attachment on the internet the other day that seems somewhat relevant to the topic...

I saw that graph on @TreadAthletics. I never want to discourage people from crunching the numbers, but I think they made some assumptions that hurt the accuracy of the numbers.

First, the title of "Chance of Pitching in College" is misleading. I'm pretty sure they did not confirm that those 7,000 players in the sample have actually pitched in college. Lots of college position players have a FB number on their PG profile. MSU outfielder Jake Mangum (SEC Freshman of the Year) has an 85 FB on his profile.

Second, there are lots of kids pitching in college who don't have a school commitment listed on PG. Anecdotally, it seem like the likelihood goes down from D1 to D3 to D2 to juco to NAIA. So if they want to look at "Chance of Pitching in College", the lower velocities are most likely under-represented in this group.

If the hypothesis is that higher velocities directly relate to chance of pitching in college, very few would disagree. But if you're trying to put real percentages to that relationship, I don't think you can use this data for that purpose. I think 2019Dad's analysis gives a much more accurate assessment of the relationship between velo and pitching in college.

2020dad posted:

Go44dad posted:

mdschert posted:

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

Proof that throwing hard makes you taller.

I knew there was some sort of relationship between the two!!

Better living through logic. You can also go to any elementary school in the country and show the link between bigger feet and math ability.

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Looked up an Ivy team and their current top pitcher this past season threw 86 mph fall of HS senior year with 27 ACT.

Curious how you determined who their top pitcher is?

I also wanted to add from memory of last years college World Series, I don't remember see any 90+ guys until the super regional games. That is the final 16. I'm not saying that teams didn't have them, but outside the top 16 teams they were few and far between.

Keep in mind that by the CWS the top pitchers are running on fumes. Long season combined with a narrowing bucket of pitchers used as the golden ring gets closer means way too many innings for these guys.  

That's  why - for guys who get drafted that year - their pro innings are really restricted over the next three months; for the top pitchers not drafted, many will either sit out the summer or log very few innings.

FriarFred posted:

2019Dad,

Love the research you have done and very interesting stuff.  Did you happen to look at any LHP velos in your research?  I would guess they might be 2-3 MPH lower, but at power 5 it may be the same.  Just curious and thanks again!

I didn't, FriarFred. Only because my son is a righty, so that was what was relevant to me. I'd also guess they'd be a couple mph slower, but I don't have any data on that.

Also, FWIW, I noticed that there were no 95 or above RHPs, and it struck me that (in addition to there not being very many such HS pitchers) they are all likely very high draft picks.

mdschert posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Looked up an Ivy team and their current top pitcher this past season threw 86 mph fall of HS senior year with 27 ACT.

Could be that he improved both by 3 or 4 before his high school career was over.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

mdschert posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Looked up an Ivy team and their current top pitcher this past season threw 86 mph fall of HS senior year with 27 ACT.

Could be that he improved both by 3 or 4 before his high school career was over.

Although, it's quite likely given admissions requirements for IL schools that he at least was committed to the school at the very least while he was throwing 86.

And the IVY coach would politely say call them when they get a 32 on the ACT . A 30 won't cut it today for a RHP at a top IVY

Just have to add more 2 cents from our very real experiences:

Because PG now lists for some their ACT/SAT scores, there are indeed players (including pitchers) committed to Ivies with ACT scores as low as 26.  That was really disappointing, to be honest, to see. And their PG velo does not make them such studs (ie the 120 index mentioned above).  Recent Harvard RHP commit with 83 mph and a 30 ACT; Yale a LHP with a 30 ACT and 81 mph; Dartmouth has a guy with an equivalent 26 at 86 mph -- just to name a few.  The test scores are their best but their velocities may likely NOT be.  As mentioned they could easily have thrown faster at HF or Stanford or the school's own camp.   Our 2017 is listed on PG at 4mph less than what he threw this summer elsewhere (documented, not a dad with a radar gun).  So sadly his PG profile reflects a number which is not his best.  PLEASE try and remember that the velocity is a snapshot.  The test scores are unlikely to be a misrepresentation but the velocity very well may be, especially if captured from one event.

Obviously I did my kid wrong based on all this with a 31 ACT and an 86MPH FB. We went to Headfirst in LI and played multiple events at IVY schools yet didn't get a sniff from any of them. Had plenty of interest from high academic D3 and he will be attending one, but IVYs had no interest.

9and7dad posted:

Curious how you determined who their top pitcher is?

He had the bulk of innings pitched for season and the best ERA

Backpick25 posted:

Nice guidelines and data. 

Locally, we have 4 - 2018's that are currently 90+ guys. None, are committed and one has been in front of PG. After the PG event was invited to two UOV's.

Do I believe the others are D1 prospects? Should be, but you never know.  Likely, the only schools that know of them is with in a 2-3 hour radius. So if they desire to play D1, they might get recruited but from my perspective 90 means very little and these local schools have their private fishing pond, unless they go on a national level to pressure recruiting.

Many kids in my area choose JuCo for many reasons, playing time, more games and ability to be drafted sooner.

At the same time D1 rosters tend to turn over about 50% of the previous years incoming class. 

 

What part of the country are you?

MKbaseballdad posted:

If you think it's frustrating to read posts from everyone who says that you need to throw 90s to be recruited - wait until you have a RHP who throws 84-85, try to help him get recruited D1 and see how frustrating it becomes!

The problem with the scenario you describe above is the sheer number of RHPs who throw in this range - it describes virtually every starting pitcher we saw the summer between my 2016's Jr and Sr year and most of the RHPs on his summer team.  So there are a lot of RHPs waiting for the spots to be filled and dust to settle, smoke to clear, etc - and then you're talking about waiting until Nov (or so) of Sr. year to find a spot with most likely a preferred walk-on spot at best to a D1.  And that assumes that out of the colleges you have been in contact with, have seen you, etc there is one or two who didn't fill the spots they had for RHPs and there is a match and you get to them first instead of any of the 100+ other RHPs they have seen the last 2 summers.  

Can it happen?  Sure.  Does it happen often?  Not from what I've seen here in the northeast the last three seasons.   Most of those players end up finding spots at another level before they get to that stage. 

I feel you. Lots of tire kickers and "Let's see how he looks this spring/summer"...

CmassRHPDad posted:

Backpick25 posted:

Nice guidelines and data. 

Locally, we have 4 - 2018's that are currently 90+ guys. None, are committed and one has been in front of PG. After the PG event was invited to two UOV's.

Do I believe the others are D1 prospects? Should be, but you never know.  Likely, the only schools that know of them is with in a 2-3 hour radius. So if they desire to play D1, they might get recruited but from my perspective 90 means very little and these local schools have their private fishing pond, unless they go on a national level to pressure recruiting.

Many kids in my area choose JuCo for many reasons, playing time, more games and ability to be drafted sooner.

At the same time D1 rosters tend to turn over about 50% of the previous years incoming class. 

 

What part of the country are you?

Cmass- I PM'd you.

Lived it for 3 years.  So frustrating and yes we had to wait until October of senior year to get a D1 to show interest. Kids that were not as good as him were getting offers, but they had "projection".

One finally figured it out, but he came into freshman fall as one of the "last guys" in all the drills, but by the end of the year, he was the 2nd guy out of the bullpen, and ended up w/ a sub 2.80 ERA with 40IP, and this year is being counted on to anchor the back of the bullpen.

A lot of those kids that threw 90 in HS but didn't win (even in high school), didn't pitch last year in college and are now moving on to JC's, as they couldn't be counted on in college.

As his summer coach says, you can't coach velocity..........but you also can't measure heart and the desire to win either, and I'd rather have a guy that will compete his butt off than a kid that throws hard, but tends to "choke".

All he needed was a chance, once he got it, he was off...........now he uses that rejection to fuel the fire.

Youngest will not be a pitcher and he'll have tools to show on the field and in the box, so hopefully I won't have a Momma that his mad at the whole baseball world. 

MKbaseballdad posted:

If you think it's frustrating to read posts from everyone who says that you need to throw 90s to be recruited - wait until you have a RHP who throws 84-85, try to help him get recruited D1 and see how frustrating it becomes!

The problem with the scenario you describe above is the sheer number of RHPs who throw in this range - it describes virtually every starting pitcher we saw the summer between my 2016's Jr and Sr year and most of the RHPs on his summer team.  So there are a lot of RHPs waiting for the spots to be filled and dust to settle, smoke to clear, etc - and then you're talking about waiting until Nov (or so) of Sr. year to find a spot with most likely a preferred walk-on spot at best to a D1.  And that assumes that out of the colleges you have been in contact with, have seen you, etc there is one or two who didn't fill the spots they had for RHPs and there is a match and you get to them first instead of any of the 100+ other RHPs they have seen the last 2 summers.  

Can it happen?  Sure.  Does it happen often?  Not from what I've seen here in the northeast the last three seasons.   Most of those players end up finding spots at another level before they get to that stage. 

Since a couple of posts have revived this thread, I thought I'd chime in as the dad of a kid who fits the mold of that first paragraph.

Be realistic about where you fit athletically, and even more importantly academically. Through the course of my son's recruiting process there were indications that he could probably find a lower level D1 spot, but the more he looked, the less it looked like there was a real combination athletic/academic fit that would really match what he wanted.  On the flip side, there were a lot of D3 schools that ended up in his sweet spot for both.  If the D1 athletic experience is really the driving factor, maybe it's worth stretching for it, but if other factors are more important to your son than that, don't overreach just to say you could do it.

anything you would have done differently now that your sons are Jr's or Sr's   where were your sons in 9th grade?      ive got a 9th grader  who has lifted some weights but not that diligently,  hopefully this summer he puts in the work,  we keep talking about doing weighted ball/driveline program but something always comes up and we maybe do a session here or there.    he does like to throw and we will long toss on occasion  twice a month.    

But that being said he is 6'3 170 now,   and was 83-85 mph over December.    His best pitch might be his curve ball though,   70-72 mph can throw it to either side of the plate with sharp bite or loop it in starting at your head breaking down to your knees.  He can hit his spots pretty well although we have been focused on velocity during the fall.    We havnt gone to any camps,  showcases, or big events.   But that will change this summer where he will likely do all of the above.   We did do a scout day at a small D1 that his travel team scheduled.   He said they coaches talked to him a lot asked him a lot of questions.  

Gunner, I don't know, to be honest. It's hard to say what the optimal path is. Each kid is different. Certainly it's different for a PO vs a two-way guy. And very different depending on the kid's high school school program.

I will say this. My son said to me "Recruiters only really care about two things: how hard you can throw and how far you can hit the ball" and I think that is mostly correct. So optimize on those things for recruiting purposes. 

gunner34 posted:

anything you would have done differently now that your sons are Jr's or Sr's   where were your sons in 9th grade?      ive got a 9th grader  who has lifted some weights but not that diligently,  hopefully this summer he puts in the work,  we keep talking about doing weighted ball/driveline program but something always comes up and we maybe do a session here or there.    he does like to throw and we will long toss on occasion  twice a month.    

But that being said he is 6'3 170 now,   and was 83-85 mph over December.    His best pitch might be his curve ball though,   70-72 mph can throw it to either side of the plate with sharp bite or loop it in starting at your head breaking down to your knees.  He can hit his spots pretty well although we have been focused on velocity during the fall.    We havnt gone to any camps,  showcases, or big events.   But that will change this summer where he will likely do all of the above.   We did do a scout day at a small D1 that his travel team scheduled.   He said they coaches talked to him a lot asked him a lot of questions.  

"But that being said he is 6'3 170 now,   and was 83-85 mph over December."

Those are top 1% numbers for a 2021.  Your son is elite and a top commodity.  From what I have seen from our circle with those kind of numbers is keep him healthy!  Manage his pitch counts and annual innings carefully.  

Build a database of contacts for schools of interest.  Choose your summer schedule based on getting in front of your target schools.  Develop a 1 minute video verifying his velocity.  Start an email campaign and track responses in your database.  Email should include summer schedule and any academic info available.  

Spend as much money and time insuring his grades are 3.5 or higher as you do on baseball.  

thanks  been on top of him on the grades  doing ok so far.     His summer team schedule is very state centric this year but they had a few 15u kids commit to top D1 schools last year with the same type of schedule.    I believe you he has an acquaintance who is basically same size and build  little shorter,  thinner   who threw 85-86 in a showcase this fall and was inundated with offers  basically all of big 12 and sec  and he verbally committed a few weeks ago.    He definitely went out and got a lot of exposure,  played in various PG events.   

gunner34 posted:

thanks  been on top of him on the grades  doing ok so far.     His summer team schedule is very state centric this year but they had a few 15u kids commit to top D1 schools last year with the same type of schedule.    I believe you he has an acquaintance who is basically same size and build  little shorter,  thinner   who threw 85-86 in a showcase this fall and was inundated with offers  basically all of big 12 and sec  and he verbally committed a few weeks ago.    He definitely went out and got a lot of exposure,  played in various PG events.   

The top 1% er's in our area have multiple offers.  While we are not in that situation, from the outside it seems like the ones who hold off accepting an offer early have much more leverage than those that jump at the first offer.  As the kids get older it seems better and better offers keep coming.  Of course, this assumes the players talent continues to grow as anticipated.  

gunner34 posted:

anything you would have done differently now that your sons are Jr's or Sr's   where were your sons in 9th grade?     

Gunner,

Great question.  I honestly don't think there's anything my son, my wife, or I would have done differently in regards to son's velocity development (which is what OP was asking, and I think you're asking?) through the HS years.  Ironic, because son's velo path was about as slow and non-exciting as it gets.  

These are things that I know did not help him with pitcher  development, especially regarding velo.  But with that in mind, these are also things that we would not change or do differently:

1.  Playing basketball from October until mid-March for 9-years; did not help with pitching.  It helped him become a 6.9 runner, but it delayed his ability to throw 90mph off the mound, as he never had time during basketball season to throw, and certainly no time for an off-season throwing program.  Basketball was son's choice.  

2.  Sending son to boarding school 6-hours from home at age 14.  With no car, or reasonable off campus transportation son was never able to work with a personal pitching coach during the high school years.  Or ever for that matter.  Boarding school was our choice.  

3.  Spending Junior year of HS living abroad in Europe did not help his pitching development.  Did wonders for his French though.  Spending year abroad was son's choice. 

4.  Consciously sending son to a HS with an anemic baseball program did not help his pitching development either.  For example, they never practiced on Fridays (???).   We chose the school for it's academics, not athletics.   Our choice. 

So Gunner, in the end, yeah there's lots of things that I guess son should have done differently in order to be a better pitcher today but would we do them differently knowing all this?  NO.  

As parents, wife and I have always tried to err on the side of encouraging son to pursue LIFE, in addition to the BASEBALL LIFE.  Encouraging him to play multiple sports all through HS and to spend a year living abroad at age 16-17, were things that in no way helped son in his quest to become a pitcher, but we believe they will help him be more prepared for the 40-years post college, not just the 4 at college.   

It's a fine line to tread Gunner.  All choices have pros and cons.  Researching both sides of each choice is highly recommended.  The choices ultimately dictate the outcome.  

Real Green,  the kid we know accepted a 90% offer,  it sounds like he had similar offers from others.  

Interesting topic. My 2022's life's dream is to play baseball for the Oregon Ducks.   Funny for a Wisconsin kid but probably speaks to the fact that there's only one D1 baseball school in the state.  So I showed him how to look up the team's roster and Perfect Game profiles.  Turns out the # looks like 89 mph.  Kid throws 78 so he has some room to go.

gunner34 posted:

anything you would have done differently now that your sons are Jr's or Sr's   where were your sons in 9th grade?      ive got a 9th grader  who has lifted some weights but not that diligently,  hopefully this summer he puts in the work,  we keep talking about doing weighted ball/driveline program but something always comes up and we maybe do a session here or there.    he does like to throw and we will long toss on occasion  twice a month.    

But that being said he is 6'3 170 now,   and was 83-85 mph over December.    His best pitch might be his curve ball though,   70-72 mph can throw it to either side of the plate with sharp bite or loop it in starting at your head breaking down to your knees.  He can hit his spots pretty well although we have been focused on velocity during the fall.    We havnt gone to any camps,  showcases, or big events.   But that will change this summer where he will likely do all of the above.   We did do a scout day at a small D1 that his travel team scheduled.   He said they coaches talked to him a lot asked him a lot of questions.  

That is basically where my son was last year minus two inches of height.  During spring season of Freshman year, 83-84.  He threw 87 at the WWBA after his freshman year.  We started playing at almost midnight, so only one coach still there.  My son got interest from him.  Went to a couple of showcases this fall and threw 88 and is now talking to some of the schools he had on his original list.  I think having movement is a big plus.  I think being taller, if he hits higher 80s by the end of the summer he will get good D1 interest.