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I thought other posters or just folks browsing might be interested in this information.

The idea was to see what is really required, velocity-wise, by HS senior fall, using real data that is publicly available with respect to actual players. (Of course, there are other factors to pitching than simply velocity, but velo is an important component).

Below is a list of the max velocity recorded by PG for all RHP on certain current college rosters (available online) who also (1) are in the PG database and (2) had a velocity recorded during the summer before senior year, or in Sept - Jan of senior year.

In a few cases, the highest velocity was actually earlier in their high school years, but if there was a velo in the PG database from May of HS junior year to January of HS senior year, I included the kid and used the highest velocity. Also, in a couple cases, the kid pitched a PG event after graduating high school, and reached a higher velocity, but I did not include that higher velocity, on the theory that 99% of the kids are recruited before they graduate from high school.

If the kid's only PG velo was from earlier (for example, summer after HS freshman year), I did not include him because I didn't want to skew the numbers lower. Same thing with kids who are on a current roster but are noted as a transfer from another college. For two-way players, I included them if RHP was listed first, under the theory that their pitching played a significant role in their recruitment.

Of course, there are also RHP on every roster who aren't in the PG database, or who had no velocity readings from the summer before senior year, or senior fall -- and for some rosters, it was the majority of pitchers. Since I had no easy way of getting data on those kids, I did not include them.

Anyway, here is the information:

POWER 5

  • Duke (ACC): 87 (Glavin); 89 (Davis); 90 (Kovachik); 92 (Blum); 93 (Williams); 94 (Pesto)
  • Notre Dame (ACC): 87 (Vorsheck); 88 (Smoyer); 88 (Hearne); 89 (Connolly); 89 (Combs); 89 (McCarty); 90 (Solomon); 90 (Hock); 91 (Bielak); 91 (Ruibal); 92 (Bass)
  • Virginia (ACC): 85 (Shambora); 89 (Harrington); 90 (Bettinger); 90 (Page); 91 (Doyle); 92 (Roberts); 92 (Murdock); 94 (Sperling); 94 (Casey)
  • Wake Forest (ACC): 76 (Casstevens); 81 (Awad); 86 (Dunshee); 87 (Loepprich); 88 (Supple); 88 (McCarren); 89 (Dee); 90 (Johnson); 90 (Farish); 90 (Johnstone); 91 (McSweeney)
  • Northwestern (B1G): 84 (Vukovich); 86 (Christie); 87 (Davis); 88 (Levy); 88 (Schindler); 88 (Cauley); 89 (Rosman); 89 (Lass)
  • Michigan (B1G): 85 (Lozer); 86 (Wysocki); 88 (Karcher); 90 (Vancena); 90 (Lehmann); 90 (Nutof); 91 (Miller); 91 (Pall)
  • USC (Pac-12): 86 (Vaccaro); 87 (Perryman); 88 (Lunn); 90 (Bates); 92 (Hart); 92 (Wegman); 93 (Dyrda); 94 (Crouse);
  • Cal (Pac-12): 86 (Bain); 88 (Flemer); 89 (Martinez); 89 (Buckley); 90 (Schick); 90 (Jeffries); 92 (Dodson)

 

MID-MAJOR

  • Cal-Poly (Big West): 87 (Lee); 88 (Colen); 91 (Uelmen)
  • UCSB (Big West): 84 (Bieber); 86 (Chandler); 87 (Davis); 88 (Chapman); 89 (Keever)
  • St. Mary's (WCC): 84 (Braman); 86 (Strotman); 87 (Holdgrafer); 88 (Buckley)
  • Bucknell (Patriot): 81 (Stephens); 84 (Strahm); 85 (Gottesman); 85 (Gambon); 89 (Robichaux); 89 (Tailor)
  • Army (Patriot): 84 (French); 88 (Messina); 87 (Ball); 88 (Carte); 89 (Verrill)
  • Columbia (Ivy): 86 (O'Brien); 86 (Barr); 87 (West); 88 (Gannaway)
  • Dartmouth (Ivy): 85 (Fossand); 85 (Michel); 87 (Fagler); 87 (Bygum); 87 (Danielak); 88 (Bubala); 90 (Fichthorn); 90 (Johnson)
  • Davidson (A-10): 85 (Barry); 85 (White); 86 (Leonard); 86 (Hopkins); 87 (Gordon); 87 (Spear); 88 (Plebani); 88 (Sutherland); 89 (Hudson)
  • William and Mary (CAA): 84 (Toner); 84 (Fletcher); 85 (Powers); 85 (Yoest); 86 (Butts); 87 (Brown); 88 (Waldman); 88 (Bailey); 88 (Lohr); 89 (White)
  • Rice (CUSA): 88 (Otto); 88 (Parthasarathy); 89 (Orewiler); 89 (Schwarz); 90 (Moss); 90 (Gayle); 90 (Silber); 92 (Canterino); 93 (Salinas)

 

DIVISION 2

  • UCSD (CCAA): 85 (Lucke); 85 (Mora); 88 (DiPoto); 88 (Nelson); 89 (Jarvis)

 

DIVISION 3

  • Amherst (NESCAC): 84 (Z. Brown); 84 (Baldi); 84 (Vasiliu); 86 (Volle); 86 (Dow); 86 (D. Brown)
  • Bowdoin (NESCAC): 81 (Osterholtz); 83 (Lopez); 85 (Arms); 85 (Wilhoite)
  • Williams (NESCAC): 82 (O'Brien); 87 (Capute)
  • Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC): 82 (Kannappan); 86 (Gerics)
  • Trinity (SCAC): 81 (Coffman); 83 (Nix); 83 (Wimberley); 84 (Cubley); 84 (Turner); 85 (McGee); 85 (Pontikes); 86 (Nelson); 86 (Williams)
Original Post

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Nice work 2019. And I will add as I have in the past that I have personally gunned D2, D3 & NAIA kids in game and it is not rare to see cruising velocities in the upper 70's and low 80's.  With PG and others starting to focus more on spin rate and spin axis the entire face of recruiting will change. Kids in the 90's will always be in demand. But instead of the kid throwing 86 with average spin you may see more kids throwing 82 with very low or high spin (more likely low).  Technology is changing the way we look at baseball. Now if only the dinosaur coaches who still resist it would step aside!  Disclaimer: not a knock on age - I am an old guy but smart enough to know these physics guys and tech guys are smarter than me!

Great research 2019DAD, very valuable.  My son had the opportunity to play with & against many of these guys in HS and with Trosky Baseball.   Many of these guys are >6'4" and have unique mechanics which lead to incredibly smooth deliveries & ball movement from out of nowhere.  This is just from my limited observation & i am not an expert on delivery or mechanics. But what I do know from experience....(Son was actively recruited by 10 of above schools)  Velocity gets you noticed and on a College Roster for Fall Ball freshman year.  But, that is only the beginning my friends.   The ability to transition to the college level in the classroom and  daily time management (with am weight training, class, practice & studying & eating if you want to gain weight) and MOVEMENT OF THE BALL & ability to paint the corners of the Zone gets you on the Spring College Roster ~ when it really matters. Once there, having the ability to keep up with class when you are traveling & off campus the first 20 of 25 days of the season AND staying healthy keeps you on the mound!

Of the 22 Freshman on son's Roster from Fall of 2014, only 12 remain in 2016

 

Velocity will still be an easy disqualifier.  I think you will see the same guys with high velocity recruited the way they have always been recruited with spin rate as something that is teachable.  Why waste time teaching spin to someone with low velocity when you can teach it to someone with high velocity.  Velocity is going up not down. Spin rate is nothing new, it's just getting some recognition.

2019DAD, Wow, that is a lot of information and must have taken a fair amount of time and effort. 

Taking one pitcher on your list, Nelson from Trinity U, he was in his junior year when I saw him pitch in late February and talked with the coaches about him.

I saw him in  one inning relief appearances. He was 91-92 with a dominant breaking ball, which he also threw very hard. At points during the season, I understand he touched 93.

infielddad posted:

2019DAD, Wow, that is a lot of information and must have taken a fair amount of time and effort. 

Taking one pitcher on your list, Nelson from Trinity U, he was in his junior year when I saw him pitch in late February and talked with the coaches about him.

I saw him in  one inning relief appearances. He was 91-92 with a dominant breaking ball, which he also threw very hard. At points during the season, I understand he touched 93.

Thanks, infielddad. Yes, it took some time. My son is just at the point where he's gathering a list -- a long list -- of possible schools. This is just part of the information base. The hard part is knowing where a 15-year-old sophomore is going to end up!  

2forU posted:

Velocity will still be an easy disqualifier.  I think you will see the same guys with high velocity recruited the way they have always been recruited with spin rate as something that is teachable.  Why waste time teaching spin to someone with low velocity when you can teach it to someone with high velocity.  Velocity is going up not down. Spin rate is nothing new, it's just getting some recognition.

With all due respect I am not sure where you get your info. Even Kyle boddy on here has recently said we are still struggling to find ways to teach spin rate. If it is so easy why don't pitchers just do it??  And spin rate is pretty new actually. Not sure what you consider new but it's certainly come into its own over last few years. That's pretty new to me. And there have always been 'sneaky fast' guys. We just know why now. And so now they can be identified and recruited. I agree big velocity will always be in demand. But if you read my post I don't compare the 95 guy to the 82 guy.  I compare the 86 guy to the 82 guy. Big difference. There are tons of mid 80's guys in D1 ball. Some even cruising lower 80's. Certainly not a stretch to say they will start considering low 80's guys with unusual spin rate/axis

"My son is just at the point where he's gathering a list -- a long list -- of possible schools. This is just part of the information base. The hard part is knowing where a 15-year-old sophomore is going to end up!  "

Where he ends up is sort of the beginning, even though I fully agree with you that, at his age, it seems like an "end."

My impression is you are getting a pretty good grasp of things. Because I assumed you put in plenty of time and effort, I felt it important to post (I have pretty much stopped posting.)

What I hoped to communicate with the velocity comparison for the Trinity pitcher was how much change there can be (and usually needs to be) with many  players from a point in time in HS into mid-point of a college career.

Having talked with a number of college coaches, and being the Father of one who coached in college, that, to me, it a major difference in how situations are viewed from the player/parents perspective as contrasted with college coaches (other than that top 3-5%)

No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)

Because they succeed or fail on the ability to project a player they see at age 16-17, some college coaches truly have skills in seeing that HS junior or senior and projecting where they can get with good coaching and a ton of hard work by the player. It is that gap, and all the hard work needed, which  makes me cringe when a parent of a recruit posts and indicates their son will be getting playing time as a freshman in college.

Good luck to you and your son along the pathway.  I know the end/beginning seems like a long way off.  It isn't.

IF Dad  "No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)"

Ain't that the truth!  With my only baseball player now a HS senior, I am following former teammates and opponents who are in freshman through junior years of college.  Especially among the pitchers it's astounding how many kids who were really, really tough at-bats in HS have struggled mightily in college. There are a few who go the the other way, but not many.

Also, 2019, I'd count on those numbers climbing.  For example the top incoming freshman RHP at Cal was throwing mid-upper 90's last spring, yet if you looked him up on PG you'd see him at 93 before senior year of HS.

JCG posted:

IF Dad  "No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)"

Ain't that the truth!  With my only baseball player now a HS senior, I am following former teammates and opponents who are in freshman through junior years of college.  Especially among the pitchers it's astounding how many kids who were really, really tough at-bats in HS have struggled mightily in college. There are a few who go the the other way, but not many.

Also, 2019, I'd count on those numbers climbing.  For example the top incoming freshman RHP at Cal was throwing mid-upper 90's last spring, yet if you looked him up on PG you'd see him at 93 before senior year of HS.

Yes, of course. Many, many of these kids threw harder their HS senior springs, and/or the summer after senior year of high school. And then when they got to college, too.

The perspective was a little different -- essentially, how hard do you have to throw to get recruited at X university? Since NLIs are largely signed in Nov. of senior year, I focused on the velo when they were rising seniors and senior fall (though I know that some of these kids may be walk-ons who didn't sign an NLI . . . ). 

Realistically, I would throw out the bottom one or two -- who knows what special circumstances may have led to an individual being on the roster? -- and then focus on the mid-point. Just by way of example, if your goal is Virginia, you probably need to be touching 91-92 senior fall . . . if your goal is William and Mary, more like 87-88 . . . But folks can use the information however they'd like (obviously). I just thought it might be useful to others.

2019Dad posted:
JCG posted:

IF Dad  "No matter how hard we try as parents, it is problematic for us to understand how much better our son's need to be to compete once they get beyond HS. (again, leaving out that top tier of players who have challenges but perhaps different ones in many ways at top tier programs.)"

Ain't that the truth!  With my only baseball player now a HS senior, I am following former teammates and opponents who are in freshman through junior years of college.  Especially among the pitchers it's astounding how many kids who were really, really tough at-bats in HS have struggled mightily in college. There are a few who go the the other way, but not many.

Also, 2019, I'd count on those numbers climbing.  For example the top incoming freshman RHP at Cal was throwing mid-upper 90's last spring, yet if you looked him up on PG you'd see him at 93 before senior year of HS.

Yes, of course. Many, many of these kids threw harder their HS senior springs, and/or the summer after senior year of high school. And then when they got to college, too.

The perspective was a little different -- essentially, how hard do you have to throw to get recruited at X university? Since NLIs are largely signed in Nov. of senior year, I focused on the velo when they were rising seniors and senior fall (though I know that some of these kids may be walk-ons who didn't sign an NLI . . . ). 

Realistically, I would throw out the bottom one or two -- who knows what special circumstances may have led to an individual being on the roster? -- and then focus on the mid-point. Just by way of example, if your goal is Virginia, you probably need to be touching 91-92 senior fall . . . if your goal is William and Mary, more like 87-88 . . . But folks can use the information however they'd like (obviously). I just thought it might be useful to others.

That's a great snapshot of information.  And, yes, I think that is a good take-away.  In fact, i looked up the lowest velo pitcher listed and, sure enough, he is a low angle, knuckleballer.   Take guys like that away and you have HS kids throwing mostly from mid 80's to low 90's.  Those kids will most likely be throwing high 80's to mid 90's in college.  

 

Or, they will fail to continue gaining velo and will have to resort to other means to succeed.  Which is fine, but it sure as heck isn't something I would suggest a HS player try to do.  You can have all the movement in the world but the magic equation that is most effective at keeping hitters off balance is the combination of velo that is hard to catch up to along with secondary stuff that is considerably lower velo than the FB.   I don't see that changing any time soon.

 

 

"You can have all the movement in the world but the magic equation that is most effective at keeping hitters off balance is the combination of velo that is hard to catch up to along with secondary stuff that is considerably lower velo than the FB."

Cabbagedad,

As usual, very thoughtful and accurate reflection on how things can be so much different at the next level. If I could add  to your thought, it would be that, at the next level, those pitchers who succeed will command each of those pitches in most counts and then be able to adjust for the 2nd and 3rd time through the batting order. Without knowing more, I would have a  suspicion that some of those JCG sees struggling may not have command of their pitches, especially when college hitters make their adjustments.

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Eh, not so much anymore in our experience.

While most of the Ivy commitments this year can be seen on PG site (and there are some low SAT and ACT scores as low as 26), most scores much higher, and that's almost the low point of velocity now too.

Just been through the whole process and seen the Ivy coaches drool over RHP guys over 90, and ignore guys at 85-88.  We've seen effective guys who know how to pitch and sit high 80's passed over for guys who can't throw well, but throw a lot faster.  Having said that, Penn has 4 guys committed (they have way more than 4 commits this year) who are on PG as 88, but one is actually over 90 and has been for some time.  

Yale RC has said average ACT is 31.  So there are guys lower than that, but you'd have to be much much more of a stud then.

Just sayin' 

 

 

Twoboys posted:
Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Eh, not so much anymore in our experience.

While most of the Ivy commitments this year can be seen on PG site (and there are some low SAT and ACT scores as low as 26), most scores much higher, and that's almost the low point of velocity now too.

Just been through the whole process and seen the Ivy coaches drool over RHP guys over 90, and ignore guys at 85-88.  We've seen effective guys who know how to pitch and sit high 80's passed over for guys who can't throw well, but throw a lot faster.  Having said that, Penn has 4 guys committed (they have way more than 4 commits this year) who are on PG as 88, but one is actually over 90 and has been for some time.  

Yale RC has said average ACT is 31.  So there are guys lower than that, but you'd have to be much much more of a stud then.

Just sayin'  

Twoboys, I just looked at PG for Penn and they only have two 2017 RHPs listed as committed (perhaps there are others not listed on PG?), both of whom have pitched at one or more PG events this summer -- one of the RHPs (Bollu) topped out at 85 in July (though last year touched 87), and the other RHP (Cerulle) topped out at 88 in one PG tournament this summer and 85 at the other PG tournament this summer. There's also a kid listed as a catcher who pitched in a PG tournament this summer (Sichley) and topped out at 88, so maybe he's been recruited as a pitcher?

I don't doubt that the Ivy coaches drool over RHPs who are over 90 (or that the Yale baseball team has an average ACT of 31) . . . That said, the data indicates that Goosegg is correct that the middle of the fairway is probably touching 88 as a rising senior/senior fall.

I think good D1 you generally Need to be at least Close to 90 or above but it also depends on the Organisation.

some organisations might value command, secondary stuff and not Walking guys more and others might value velocity and worry about refining the command later (often doesn't work but if it does there is a high reward).

Ideally you want both in a pitcher of course but those are rare.

I tried to find data for last year at Jupiter but failed. I liked the analysis of spin rates, both high and low with velocity and their correlation to college and pro ball. Lots of factors as mentioned by Journey above affect ability to actually PLAY in college and i've personally seen the mid to low 80's guys carve instead of the mid to high 90's guys.

http://www.baseballamerica.com...#8cMvZmHZYgIhEfBU.97

BTW wouldn't spin rate not help more on 4 seamers than two seamers?

backspin creates "rise" (actually it is just less drop) and for a two seamer you want drop. so spin rate might be more helpfull for a 4 seam pitcher who likes to pitch up in the Zone but not so helpful for a sinkerball pitcher who throws two seamers down in the Zone.

on curves and sliders of course the spin helps too because it increases the downward and lateral break.

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

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