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Just having fun with a question. So now my son is a junior in high school. Committed D1. LHP. Of course, he wants to go with his buddies to Jupiter in the fall. And of course I will let him. I wanna experience it too. But that said, he's 6'1/200lbs. Athletic build. He is 84/86. Good curveball 73/75. Good change up about 70/72. Good control on all 3. Wouldnt say he "commands" the pitches but he controls them. What will peak the interest of a kid like mine. Maybe he will top 88 by next October. Who knows. What does the kind of LHP look like at 6'1" in terms of velo, command, etc. Just having fun. Thanks.

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If he's sitting mid 80s (as a HS junior) with a few outliers a bit higher, that will place him on the radar of scouts. They will pay attention over the next year. Now, if he sits the same speed a year later, the pro attention will diminish. His height is fine, the weight is a bit high - but it depends how he carries it. The scouts also will want to project his ultimate height and weight - so if he's bigger then his parents already, hide. 

Currently, I'd say based upon his CB velo, roughly 87 should be his FB velo.

Proscouts are all about projections - so they will speculate what further development (baseball and physical) could bring. Of course, the better his mechanics, the better they will view him.  FB velo and command is first; most HS pitchers don't have developed secondary stuff (because if they're that good, there was no need to develop those other pitches because no one could touch the FB), but scouts can also project the development of secondary stuff. (Yes, some HS kids have developed a decent secondary pitch, but it's not that big a deal to scouts looking at a HS kid.)

i don't agree with the broad statement that the next big jump in velo is freshman year. It is true that he will sculpt his body and it will change from boy to man, but that doesn't necessarily impact velo. I've seen hundreds of kids not gain a mile in velo in college - indeed, I've seen dozens who involuntarily lose velo in college. There are lots of reasons for this - including the college coaches desire that a kid throw strikes and are willing to sacrifice velo for that (I really don't agree that a kid throttling his velo helps in control, but many coaches don't feel that way), developing a big tush and legs don't translate into velo, using the same weight programs for position players and pitchers may make pitchers lose flexibility, etc.

Now, key mechanical changes introduced by a knowledgeable college PC (and there are fewer of those then you think) can lead to big jumps in velo. 

Predicting velo increases beyond HS is tough; what works with one guy may not work for another.

I was wondering in terms of the velo jumps. I follow Aaron Fitt on twitter and he posted about a kid named Anthony Kay at UCONN. I looked back at his PG velo jumps and where he now touching 95 in his sophomore year at UCONN and found it interesting. He's exactly where my son is when he was a junior in high school but he may be the obvious exception and not the rule. But I am relieved that Jeff Passan in his new book, "The Arm" that scouts prefer kids with big tushes. lol. I laughed out loud when I read that. Though my son is squatting pretty good as it is, Id say half of his tush though comes from Chik-Fil-A. The kids like to meet there in the morning before heading to school for their daily spicy chicken biscuit even though his mama yells at him.  I'm 6', so I dont know if he is gonna grow much more in height. The good thing is one of his pitching coaches is Lantz Wheeler of baseballthinktank.com. Lantz says there is more there as it relates to velo and he's gonna be only and hour and half away from him in college. If there is anyone that can squeeze all the velo out of him before his 3rd year in college it will be Lantz. So Im encouraged there.

So here is another question. I have a buddy who's boy is committed to one of the most prestigious baseball universities in the country. He is a LHP, 6'4/190 sits 88/89. Has touched 94 just recently. He is a very close friend. I said to him that unless his son does go in the first 2 rounds in the 2017 first year player draft, that unless its a 7 figure signing bonus......that he should still go to this particular college. Because if he is drafted. He's 18. He'll go to rookie or A- out of high school. There will be a roving, pitching coach that comes around basically every week or two and he wont get the kind of pitching coaching he would get at his college (SEC) where he is with his pitching coach every day. He said he has been told that a first or second round kid is treated different in rookie ball than a kid drafted in 20th round. That the high round kid will have greater attention paid to him in terms of being developed because the major league team has more money invested in him. What do you know or think?

Last edited by Dirk

Your son should prepare to do his best at PG. he can't do more than that. If he isn't noticed it doesn't mean he won't be in college. When he gets to college get in the best possible shape and get as strong as possible without affecting his pitching. If he does the right thing good things will happen. You cant worry about what if. "What if" is a distraction. He should only be concerned about that which he can control.

These days it isn't all that unusual to see pitchers gain 5-6 mph in a fairly short span of time.  If your son throws well at that event you will see scouts at his games next spring.  Everything that happens before that final HS season just creates more interest for that final spring before the draft.  Some gain a lot more interest before then, but even those players need to look good right up until the draft.  Some create mild interest early and really blossom that final season and become early round picks. No matter what, it's always good to have your name in the MLB organization's datbases.  

 

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