Where early recruiting is going

Thank you Roothog!  I really wish someone could track this properly.  It also appears to be different if you are in a baseball hotbed or not.  But I have said for a while that I think showcasing in 9th and 10th grade (if you have something to really show) is more in line with what has been happening in the ATL area.  I would guess the scholarships that are actually offering money are parceled out like this:

8th grade: 0-1%

9th grade: 2-5%

10th grade: 6-60% (includes summer from 10th-11th grade)

11th grade: 61-85% (includes summer from 11th-12th grade)

12th grade: 86-100%

Many of the offers in 12th grade seem to have no money attached to them, they are more like preferred walk on offers. Is that what the rest of you are seeing too?

Congrats to your son! 

You are talking the Top 200, right?  Yes, the recruiting timeline is moving up earlier it seems every year.  Many top programs are "done" recruiting before a player's junior year of high school ends.  And yes, a player still can't sign a NLI until ~November of their Senior year.

For the vast majority of players (i.e., not national class and not a Top 50 program target) the real timeframe is not dramatically different than it was ~five years ago with D1 roster limitations.  

Finding that intersection of where a player can be admitted with where they can play is still the name of the game for the vast majority.  Then engaging the coaches and admissions reps of those schools to demonstrate interest.  Then being seen by these schools.  That usually happens for these types of players, i.e., the vast majority, beginning in Junior year of high school.  The vast majority of players are beginning to mature physically at this time, maybe just beginning strength/speed/agility training.  The vast majority are taking PSAT/SAT/ACT and are refining high school curriculum and GPAs.  The vast majority don't throw 85...certainly not 90...they are working to get there in the hopes of being seen long after your son (who threw 85+ much earlier than most).

Things flow down hill.  Top programs are verbally committing to players earlier and vice versa.  And still a D3 program, while present at camps and showcases, is unlikely to get commits until after the start of a player's Senior year of high school.     

The thing one needs to consider... There are kids committing to good college programs as young underclassmen throwing mid 80s.  The college recruiters are expecting that velocity to increase by the time the player is a junior or senior.

So in some cases if that velocity doesn't increase as expected, that is when we see minds changing and major disappointments take place.

I'm not for or against committing early, but people need to understand early commitments are a much bigger risk to the player than the college.  All they have to do is tell the player he won't be able to play and won't be happy at their college. This happens a lot, but isn't really publicized because nether the player or the college coaches want everyone to know.

So know that things might work out perfectly or it can get ugly.

TIFWIW

Well, I guess I am containing the subject to D1's and, at that, higher D1's. Without a doubt, lower divisions are picking up players on the downhill side of the timeline. PG mentions something I've wondered about. I have seen it a time or two, but, how many kids throwing mid-80's as freshmen/sophomores, do you see that don't improve at least 2-3 mph by senior year? I honestly couldn't guess. Obviously, when researching it is a lot easier to look at the juniors/seniors who have committed and look back in time to where they were as sophs or freshmen and those are, logically, going to be the ones that did improve. PG, would you agree that the numbers of sophomores, especially, committing even before their soph years of HS ball has dramatically increased in just the past 2-3 years? And do you think this is going to be a continuing trend?

On a more personal level, my son has been asked by a couple of schools if he were "ready" to commit. After giving an ambiguous answer the first time this happened and then being offered, my son has now told the last couple of guys asking that question that he won't be committing until after Jupiter next Fall.

As I was reading the thread, what Jerry posted is a lot of what I was thinking.  Kids that young throwing mid 80's "committing" to D1's.  Cool - they tell all their buddies and wear the school sweatshirt every day to high school.  Then they get to their junior/senior summer and they are still throwing mid 80's, maybe even upper 80's.  Their scholarship "commitment" from two years ago is now gone, and to make matters worse, they've effectively taken themselves off the market for two years.  I still cease to see the incentive to committing that early.  In my view, the kid and his family is taking all the risk.  JMO.

To add further, I just took a look at PG's top 100 2018's and 74 have committed to D1's. What I'm amazed at is that more of these kids haven't voluntarily chosen NOT to commit, given the obvious disadvantages.  

If coaches cannot talk to kids before they are juniors, how are they getting them to commit to their school?  

How many of the top 200 are actually drafted by MLB?  It seems colleges trying  early to recruit the top players might be an exercise in futility.

I also have to wonder about one of the main disadvantages of early commitment - the idea that you're taking yourself off the market for two years. This is definitely true as of today. Baseball has a reputation for actually respecting those commitments in a way that football and basketball do not. However, I wonder if that will still be true going forward. With so many schools offering sophomores and freshmen at unprecedented rates, how long will it be before baseball coaches start to take the attitude that the gloves are off now? 

too.tall posted:

If coaches cannot talk to kids before they are juniors, how are they getting them to commit to their school?  

Here's how it works. If you are at a camp, they can talk to you. If they like what they see somewhere, it's common to call the kid's coach and hint that. "It's be great if player X could give me a call sometime (it's ok to call them, they just can't call you) or come visit our school." Once on campus, they can talk to you all they want. This is how it's worked with us. A simple mention from the coach that we should probably give them a call.

mdschert posted:

How many of the top 200 are actually drafted by MLB?  It seems colleges trying  early to recruit the top players might be an exercise in futility.

Yeah. True. Last year, for example, I think 45 high school RHP were taken in the draft. Around 20 of those signed. So, with the very upper group, it probably is futile. But, with the 15yo kid throwing 86-88 mph, it's a pretty good gamble 0- at least for the school.

roothog66 posted:

too.tall posted:

If coaches cannot talk to kids before they are juniors, how are they getting them to commit to their school?  

Here's how it works. If you are at a camp, they can talk to you. If they like what they see somewhere, it's common to call the kid's coach and hint that. "It's be great if player X could give me a call sometime (it's ok to call them, they just can't call you) or come visit our school." Once on campus, they can talk to you all they want. This is how it's worked with us. A simple mention from the coach that we should probably give them a call.

Thanks.  Makes sense.

9and7dad posted:

As I was reading the thread, what Jerry posted is a lot of what I was thinking.  Kids that young throwing mid 80's "committing" to D1's.  Cool - they tell all their buddies and wear the school sweatshirt every day to high school.  Then they get to their junior/senior summer and they are still throwing mid 80's, maybe even upper 80's.  Their scholarship "commitment" from two years ago is now gone, and to make matters worse, they've effectively taken themselves off the market for two years.  I still cease to see the incentive to committing that early.  In my view, the kid and his family is taking all the risk.  JMO.

+1.   In addition, young recruits who know what they want and have options are going to wait.  

fenwaysouth posted:

9and7dad posted:

As I was reading the thread, what Jerry posted is a lot of what I was thinking.  Kids that young throwing mid 80's "committing" to D1's.  Cool - they tell all their buddies and wear the school sweatshirt every day to high school.  Then they get to their junior/senior summer and they are still throwing mid 80's, maybe even upper 80's.  Their scholarship "commitment" from two years ago is now gone, and to make matters worse, they've effectively taken themselves off the market for two years.  I still cease to see the incentive to committing that early.  In my view, the kid and his family is taking all the risk.  JMO.

+1.   In addition, young recruits who know what they want and have options are going to wait.  

That makes sense and I used to believe that (still believe it personally), but noting the numbers I gave above noting that the vast majority of the top 2018's have already committed I'm inclined to believe this is not what is happening and I'm not sure I understand why.

Once again, I'm not for or against early commitment.

In many cases it works out perfectly for everyone concerned.

I just have seen some of these go sour and the devastated player and parents scramble.

Yes, most pitchers throwing mid 80s as a freshman will throw harder as they grow older.  Here is a player that committed to the U of Florida his junior year.  Very good pitcher that threw low 90s at the time. As a HS freshman he threw in the 70s. As a HS senior he threw 92. Now as college junior he is upper 90s and a candidate to be the first player picked in the June draft.  If you click on the events he attended and scroll down you can see how he progressed over time.

http://perfectgame.org/Players...ofile.aspx?ID=268466

My intent wasn't to alarm anyone or suggest early commitment is always a problem.  Only wanted people to understand how this stuff works.  Sometimes kids don't find out until just before the early signing period. When that happens it can be extra painful. And just to be clear, if I were coaching at a power program I would be trying to get as many early commitments as possible and then sort things out later.

roothog66 posted:

That makes sense and I used to believe that (still believe it personally), but noting the numbers I gave above noting that the vast majority of the top 2018's have already committed I'm inclined to believe this is not what is happening and I'm not sure I understand why.

Most of these kids are getting offers from top programs. Those kids are probably very happy with the school and the scholarship offer. They might do marginally better if they wait, but the risks involved with waiting aren't worth it. Many will also have dreams of being drafted out of high school, so it really isn't a total commitment.

Of the 91 verbally committed, how many r pitchers? 

Easier IMO to commit to dream school early if u r a P, many r needed on roster.

But say u r a catcher, you verbally commit as soph and then u get to Sr. Yr of HS and dream school now has two great catchers on roster, one a soph, another a Jr. What r your chances of getting much play time? Wouldn't it be better to go to a diff school where u will be off bench sooner?  May not be many good offers out there for u because u verbally committed as soph and u were not talking to other schools. 

I agree w statement that verbally committing early can favor the school over the player in many cases.

just have a back up plan in place

Other side is a kid's dream school projects needing a top catchers in their recruiting class three years out.  Your possible early commit son is one of the two on their short list - both early commits.  Your son waits, other commits.  Scholarship money allocated to catchers is then spent.

This is a "stud player" issue.  It's like "rich people problems".  The better the player, the more positive options that exist.

playball2011 posted:

Of the 91 verbally committed, how many r pitchers? 

Easier IMO to commit to dream school early if u r a P, many r needed on roster.

But say u r a catcher, you verbally commit as soph and then u get to Sr. Yr of HS and dream school now has two great catchers on roster, one a soph, another a Jr. What r your chances of getting much play time? Wouldn't it be better to go to a diff school where u will be off bench sooner?  May not be many good offers out there for u because u verbally committed as soph and u were not talking to other schools. 

I agree w statement that verbally committing early can favor the school over the player in many cases.

just have a back up plan in place

In the top 200, there are 60 RHP's. 32 are currently committed to D1's. There are only 7 of the 22 LHP's committed, though. Some schools are more active than others. Of the 200, 8 are committed to Louisville,7 to Florida, 7 to Vandy, 6 to Florida State. Virginia, LSU and North Carolina are also pretty active. Keep in mind that that's just PBR which only covers kids from 27 states and doesn't include Texas and Florida if that tells you something.

roothog66 posted:

fenwaysouth posted:

9and7dad posted:

As I was reading the thread, what Jerry posted is a lot of what I was thinking.  Kids that young throwing mid 80's "committing" to D1's.  Cool - they tell all their buddies and wear the school sweatshirt every day to high school.  Then they get to their junior/senior summer and they are still throwing mid 80's, maybe even upper 80's.  Their scholarship "commitment" from two years ago is now gone, and to make matters worse, they've effectively taken themselves off the market for two years.  I still cease to see the incentive to committing that early.  In my view, the kid and his family is taking all the risk.  JMO.

+1.   In addition, young recruits who know what they want and have options are going to wait.  

That makes sense and I used to believe that (still believe it personally), but noting the numbers I gave above noting that the vast majority of the top 2018's have already committed I'm inclined to believe this is not what is happening and I'm not sure I understand why.

What people seem to not take into account is that there are  2018s who are not committed who will surpass the committed ones.  This happens very frequently. Jerry can you comment on that?  People think because a pitcher is hitting nice numbers as a sophomore the trend will continue, and as pointed out that happens frequently but frequently it does not.

Also, good college coaches from top programs NEVER stop looking, even when specific classes seem to have been filled up.  There are reasons why the recruit earlier and earlier, and its simply that they need to win and they need to capture the best before someone else does. Its really a no brainer. 

About the "commit and then don't develop".  The other side of that coin is wait and don't develop. Not sure it really matters in the end.

Hi All 

New to all this , enjoy reading , learning from all of you. Saw new PBR top 200 list for 2018 s.....Am I correct that PBR only ranks kids who have attended

thier showcases ?? 

Alex16 posted:

Hi All 

New to all this , enjoy reading , learning from all of you. Saw new PBR top 200 list for 2018 s.....Am I correct that PBR only ranks kids who have attended

thier showcases ?? 

No

Alex16 posted:

Hi All 

New to all this , enjoy reading , learning from all of you. Saw new PBR top 200 list for 2018 s.....Am I correct that PBR only ranks kids who have attended

thier showcases ?? 

No. However, they are limited to kids they have seen. PG has a larger data base, but have the same limits. At the soph and freshman levels, they will be limited. In my state, for example, right now for 2018's, PBR will have a better handle on the Colorado talent because they see so many more of them. For our state, PG has the obvious #1 2018 far behind three other kids because they haven't been exposed to him much yet. Nationwide, PG has a better handle.

TPM posted:

roothog66 posted:

fenwaysouth posted:

9and7dad posted:

As I was reading the thread, what Jerry posted is a lot of what I was thinking.  Kids that young throwing mid 80's "committing" to D1's.  Cool - they tell all their buddies and wear the school sweatshirt every day to high school.  Then they get to their junior/senior summer and they are still throwing mid 80's, maybe even upper 80's.  Their scholarship "commitment" from two years ago is now gone, and to make matters worse, they've effectively taken themselves off the market for two years.  I still cease to see the incentive to committing that early.  In my view, the kid and his family is taking all the risk.  JMO.

+1.   In addition, young recruits who know what they want and have options are going to wait.  

That makes sense and I used to believe that (still believe it personally), but noting the numbers I gave above noting that the vast majority of the top 2018's have already committed I'm inclined to believe this is not what is happening and I'm not sure I understand why.

What people seem to not take into account is that there are  2018s who are not committed who will surpass the committed ones.  This happens very frequently. Jerry can you comment on that?  People think because a pitcher is hitting nice numbers as a sophomore the trend will continue, and as pointed out that happens frequently but frequently it does not.

Also, good college coaches from top programs NEVER stop looking, even when specific classes seem to have been filled up.  There are reasons why the recruit earlier and earlier, and its simply that they need to win and they need to capture the best before someone else does. Its really a no brainer. 

 

 

That is definitely true. However, by that point, you have to be clearly better than the guys they already have commitments from. I think, though, that all of this will be more like football and basketball soon where commitments aren't all that revered. I hope I'm wrong.

playball2011 posted:

Of the 91 verbally committed, how many r pitchers? 

Easier IMO to commit to dream school early if u r a P, many r needed on roster.

But say u r a catcher, you verbally commit as soph and then u get to Sr. Yr of HS and dream school now has two great catchers on roster, one a soph, another a Jr. What r your chances of getting much play time? Wouldn't it be better to go to a diff school where u will be off bench sooner?  May not be many good offers out there for u because u verbally committed as soph and u were not talking to other schools. 

I agree w statement that verbally committing early can favor the school over the player in many cases.

just have a back up plan in place

Reading through the posts of this interesting thread, I think Go44DAd and Playball hit upon something I am in total agreement. Early commitment for pitchers (especially POs) is very different than recruitment of position players. Teams at all levels need pitchers, especially those who throw X mph or have X# of pitches (the latter doesn't seem as important as pitching coaches will work with recruit).  I think it's a lot different for a pitcher to be wooed early. Commit if it's the best offer and for the dream school if known (which I don't know how many 10th graders think about majors yet).  Most $$ offers are 20% too if $ is offered (Athletic). As Fenway notes "dream school" takes into account academics, major, and degrees offered as well as strength of baseball program. 

As for the position players, a "you are the best thing since sliced bread proposal"  2 years + from when a player plays his senior year is riskier. Your playing time, how you fit into team's puzzle may change once coaches continue recruiting for your position.  A player (at any level) should ask himself if he still will like the school sophomore year if PT and $ is different from freshman season or when offer is made. 

Previous threads indicate LHP have more time and I am in agreement with that, though schools do have budgets.  The pitchers in this area I have followed  who waited in recruiting scheme had indecision largely as a result of their skill and desire to hit at the next level (truly great at both)  One is playing D1 third base (though school may use him to pitch at times). The other was all set to DH when not pitching (talked about in "the D1 offer"). He is now #3 starter as a freshman and won't pick up a bat. 

2018 committed early... if anyone is interested in the thought process please PM me.

PGStaff posted:

The thing one needs to consider... There are kids committing to good college programs as young underclassmen throwing mid 80s.  The college recruiters are expecting that velocity to increase by the time the player is a junior or senior.

So in some cases if that velocity doesn't increase as expected, that is when we see minds changing and major disappointments take place.

I'm not for or against committing early, but people need to understand early commitments are a much bigger risk to the player than the college.  All they have to do is tell the player he won't be able to play and won't be happy at their college. This happens a lot, but isn't really publicized because nether the player or the college coaches want everyone to know.

So know that things might work out perfectly or it can get ugly.

TIFWIW

This!!  The recruiting process still mostly happens at the Jr. and Sr. level.  You've got to develop or they WILL move on.  For example, at my son's school there was a kid who was big early.  By 14 he was throwing 84.  Of course, everyone around is saying "D1."  I mean, he was only 14 years old throwing 84.  Problem is, when he was a Jr. and Sr. he was throwing around 85 and had very poor command.   He ended up going to an NAIA school as mostly a position player.  The kid that D1 coaches salivated over as an 8th grader was not even on the D1 radar as a Sr.

Coaches will jump out there these days and make early offers young promising kids to get them connected to their program.  But there's no promise on the side of the school - and, of course, the player has made no promises either.   The school is calculating, and knows that if the kid doesn't reach certain benchmark levels by Jr. year, then they will likely pull the offer and go in another direction.

I am sure they've seen there fair share of kids who got big early, dominated the youth circuit, but failed to progress much past that.   I'm sure they've seen their share of guys who bloomed late and really took of between their Jr. and Sr. years.

I think that for a parent with a younger player who's getting noticed the best thing to do is to follow Mary's example, and ponder all of these things in their heart.  At least until they've reached Jr. year and still have the strong interest.

Hummmmm..... Are we talking about all freshman and soph?  I can see that for 95% of younger players they should and will likely wait.  I believe the OP was referring to the top 200?   What about the top 50?  Should they wait until their Jr or Sr season to commit and sign? 

I agree the top programs never stop recruiting and it's a given that these younger players must improve in order to maintain interest... I did a little looking and the school my young one committed to has every player that committed on the roster except for the players that were drafted out of high school.  I feel for the top 100 players in a given class there is a good chance that these players are going to continue to improve.   Or course a few will not...  The player and the school he is committing to have both done their respective homework I'm sure of that.

So are we discussing the top 200 in a class or the top 1000?  If a player receives a good offer he should commit... he is fighting for those slots with other top 100 players and if he does not commit then rest assured another top 100 player will.. while you wait.   While the arguement is made that you are taking yourself off the market and there's a chance that the school will resend it's agreement, I find that a small percentage and a good gamble to go ahead and commit.

There was an '14 or ' 15 pitcher that went to Vanderbilt as an early commit from this area I do believe. Was on the team his freshman year but as a sophomore was playing Jr college. As I remember it was a situation where vandy recommended the school with the understanding that if he developed he'd be back. 

We looked at vandy, Arkansas too. Didn't pursue vandy,  AR asked him to a camp but nothing become of it,  and that's OK. It became apparent at that level there's very, very little loyalty. Every year there will be 50 kids competing for 30 slots. The only thing worse than being turned away your freshman yr would be so your Jr. 

fenwaysouth posted:

9and7dad posted:

As I was reading the thread, what Jerry posted is a lot of what I was thinking.  Kids that young throwing mid 80's "committing" to D1's.  Cool - they tell all their buddies and wear the school sweatshirt every day to high school.  Then they get to their junior/senior summer and they are still throwing mid 80's, maybe even upper 80's.  Their scholarship "commitment" from two years ago is now gone, and to make matters worse, they've effectively taken themselves off the market for two years.  I still cease to see the incentive to committing that early.  In my view, the kid and his family is taking all the risk.  JMO.

+1.   In addition, young recruits who know what they want and have options are going to wait.  

this sounds logical but for the most part the numbers say it is incorrect. Many of the top prospects with the "options" are committing earlier and earlier. I assume because there may be risk in committing early if you don't improve, but IMO it is perceived to be riskier to wait and not have the slop open that you really wanted. I don't know for sure if it is true but that it what it appears like to me. What other reason is there?

At the end of it, the problem is the schools in IMO

"I think, though, that all of this will be more like football and basketball soon where commitments aren't all that revered."

Root, I think you are looking at the problem wrong, I think the commitment needs to be worthless, I think the schools and coaching staffs doing the earliest recruiting need to get screwed to the wall, fail, and hopefully be terminated...and from there you might get the motivation to change. Until it is in the coaches best interest to change do really think it will stop?

SomeBaseballDad posted:

There was an '14 or ' 15 pitcher that went to Vanderbilt as an early commit from this area I do believe. Was on the team his freshman year but as a sophomore was playing Jr college. As I remember it was a situation where vandy recommended the school with the understanding that if he developed he'd be back. 

We looked at vandy, Arkansas too. Didn't pursue vandy,  AR asked him to a camp but nothing become of it,  and that's OK. It became apparent at that level there's very, very little loyalty. Every year there will be 50 kids competing for 30 slots. The only thing worse than being turned away your freshman yr would be so your Jr. 

Funny thing though, elite schools like Vanderbilt pursue you, not the other way around. 

I believe that in the next few years, players will be competing against 40-45 others when they arrive on a D1 campus. Some already do now.

So it's not your first year, but will be harder and harder the following years for a roster spot.

JMO

TPM posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

There was an '14 or ' 15 pitcher that went to Vanderbilt as an early commit from this area I do believe. Was on the team his freshman year but as a sophomore was playing Jr college. As I remember it was a situation where vandy recommended the school with the understanding that if he developed he'd be back. 

We looked at vandy, Arkansas too. Didn't pursue vandy,  AR asked him to a camp but nothing become of it,  and that's OK. It became apparent at that level there's very, very little loyalty. Every year there will be 50 kids competing for 30 slots. The only thing worse than being turned away your freshman yr would be so your Jr. 

Funny thing though, elite schools like Vanderbilt pursue you, not the other way around. 

I believe that in the next few years, players will be competing against 40-45 others when they arrive on a D1 campus. Some already do now.

So it's not your first year, but will be harder and harder the following years for a roster spot.

JMO

That may very well be.

The kid ended up committing to Nebraska. Liked everything about it. Really liked the coaches. The over committing subject came up.  HC was like yeah I know. But that's not how I run my program. I think you can still win without over committing.  We'll see. 

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

Possible?

Anything is possible.  But mid 90 is not always typical for most pitchers out of college.  

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

INCONCEIVABLE!

Teaching Elder posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

INCONCEIVABLE!

You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means.

CaCO3Girl posted:

Teaching Elder posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

INCONCEIVABLE!

You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means.

Interwebs high-five!