Where early recruiting is going

old_school posted:

"I think, though, that all of this will be more like football and basketball soon where commitments aren't all that revered."

Root, I think you are looking at the problem wrong, I think the commitment needs to be worthless, I think the schools and coaching staffs doing the earliest recruiting need to get screwed to the wall, fail, and hopefully be terminated...and from there you might get the motivation to change. Until it is in the coaches best interest to change do really think it will stop?

I doubt even that will stop any of this. It hasn't done so with the other major sports. I'm not even sure if that's a bad thing.

I heard from several D1 coaches during a Q&A session this weekend. A couple told the story of the kid who didn't bloom and catch on to a school until his senior year. However, you got the feeling, even from them, that these were outlier inspirational stories. They also pointed out that a lot of those types went JC and then transferred. They also pointed out, to a man, that they see very few high school games and, even then, only very local to campus. What they turn to the high school coach for is academic and character reference.

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

Absolutely possible.  There are a few on this board that I know that have come close to this hypothetical situation.  There are some recruits that have goals outside of baseball where this situation can come into play.  Not every moth is drawn to the bright lights of big time college baseball while being recruited.   Some recruits and their families realize the peer pressure to commit early is not in their best interests long term.

Anything can happen once they are in college....the right coach...the right atmosphere.....and a lot of hard work.

As always, JMO. 

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

CaCo, just to the first part, I don't think the kid gets cut, rather he transfers after a discouraging discussion with the coach on his future prospects of seeing the mound.  And 89 ain't bad in college, if the hypothetical kid can hypothetically pitch.

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

I do not think this is a likely scenario.   In 2018's situation and everyone's is different, he looked at previous rosters from 2013, 2014, 2015 and future rosters from 2016,2017,2018.  We discussed many many scenario's with the coaching staff. We about talked to former, current and future players.  There are many different reasons why coaches recruit players some players will be first tier recruits and some will be second tier.  Some players realize their chances are not as good for playing time as others but for their own personal reasons elect to attend the school and take their chances because they want to go to school there.

As with any team a player has to improve and find ways he can help his team succeed.  There are always going to be situations , injuries, grades, improper conduct that can affect the playing time. 

But these are situations when the player has already made it to campus.  As far as committing early and something happening between the commitment and signing sure it can happen, but I would rather have that chance , than to wait and not have it. 

Remember the levels are different in D1 ball.  Vandy, Florida, UCLA, Virginia etc... are different than most D1 programs.  Its hard to compare Florida to North Florida.

In 2018's case he does have three years of high school remaining, a lot can happen and will happen.. But at this point he is at 90+ with pitchability and strong set of coaches supporting him.

it would be foolish of him to not accept his offer.  I cannot see his options getting better.   For my other two older sons, it made sense for them to wait and see how they developed as they were not ready for this level..   every case is unique...

I would like to add that there are many other factors involved playing at a top tier program... it takes more then velo, bat speed and glove . While you have the best of everything to help you succeed every minute of your day is accounted for... you have to be able to handle the mental side , the classroom, criticism from coaches, the press etc....  there are many things to discuss and ponder. I will say that these top programs are very good at finding the person who they feel has these qualities , more times than not they guess correctly on their projections.  As TPM said, you don't ask them. 

So maybe we should discuss committing to top three or four conferences and committing early to mid-level and low -level D1 conferences. It is much much different. Mid-levels take a ton of JUCO players.... low-level D1 have more sr's   Not too many sr's on top programs, they work on a 3 year scenario

bacdorslider posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

I do not think this is a likely scenario.   In 2018's situation and everyone's is different, he looked at previous rosters from 2013, 2014, 2015 and future rosters from 2016,2017,2018.  We discussed many many scenario's with the coaching staff. We about talked to former, current and future players.  There are many different reasons why coaches recruit players some players will be first tier recruits and some will be second tier.  Some players realize their chances are not as good for playing time as others but for their own personal reasons elect to attend the school and take their chances because they want to go to school there.

As with any team a player has to improve and find ways he can help his team succeed.  There are always going to be situations , injuries, grades, improper conduct that can affect the playing time. 

But these are situations when the player has already made it to campus.  As far as committing early and something happening between the commitment and signing sure it can happen, but I would rather have that chance , than to wait and not have it. 

Remember the levels are different in D1 ball.  Vandy, Florida, UCLA, Virginia etc... are different than most D1 programs.  Its hard to compare Florida to North Florida.

In 2018's case he does have three years of high school remaining, a lot can happen and will happen.. But at this point he is at 90+ with pitchability and strong set of coaches supporting him.

it would be foolish of him to not accept his offer.  I cannot see his options getting better.   For my other two older sons, it made sense for them to wait and see how they developed as they were not ready for this level..   every case is unique...

 

 

 

 

If your 2018 is throwing 90+ then you are in really, really good shape, barring injuries, to have that spot in three years.  

And I'm insanely envious. Lol. 

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

In this hypothetical, the player has DECIDED to attend a D3, rather then a D1. There is room at many good D1 baseball programs ALL THE WAY UP TO THE FIRST DAY of college for a pitcher throwing 89. I know of several pitchers who were grabbed in August after HS graduation by D1 programs (one at Indiana during Indiana's breakout year) and they were upper mid 80s. Many D1 programs don't even fill their 35 man roster limit and have room for such a hypothetical player; many have lost players to the draft; some have lost players to injuries, academic issues, character issues; some have late openings because a player transferred unexpectedly (Bickford); others just salivate at the thought of a freshman throwing 89 (I am assuming sitting 89, not sitting 85 and touching 89) and will cut a lesser commit, etc. The list is endless; but the point is for this hypothetical player, there is plenty of room at the inns.

So, D1 straight from HS will be available to this player. 

Now, if the player has selected D3 (perhaps for the academic environment), the road to proball is a bit trickier. True, pitchers from D3 have a slightly easier roads hen compared to position players, but the player really needs to try to drive his chances.

How? By working with his coach for high visibility summer league placements. This means that he can't be pitched out during the regular season (and since he would probably be in the starting rotation, that could be a challenge); it means working harder then virtually everyone else on the team (because those players don't have the same aspirations) and get the coach to push him more then anyone else on the team; it means selecting a program where he can improve his mechanical skills and baseball IQ (find a great coaching staff and hope they dont leave); it means baseball is the first priority - over academics (tough to do when all your peers are focussed on academics first), etc. It means taking the D3 program and training like its a D1 powerhouse.

It can be done; it's just a more difficult road.  But, since so few players actually make it to proball, finding the better academic fit would probably yield a better long term return on investment when compared to the vagaries of the path to proball and subsequently up the proball chain.

Teaching Elder posted:

bacdorslider posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

I do not think this is a likely scenario.   In 2018's situation and everyone's is different, he looked at previous rosters from 2013, 2014, 2015 and future rosters from 2016,2017,2018.  We discussed many many scenario's with the coaching staff. We about talked to former, current and future players.  There are many different reasons why coaches recruit players some players will be first tier recruits and some will be second tier.  Some players realize their chances are not as good for playing time as others but for their own personal reasons elect to attend the school and take their chances because they want to go to school there.

As with any team a player has to improve and find ways he can help his team succeed.  There are always going to be situations , injuries, grades, improper conduct that can affect the playing time. 

But these are situations when the player has already made it to campus.  As far as committing early and something happening between the commitment and signing sure it can happen, but I would rather have that chance , than to wait and not have it. 

Remember the levels are different in D1 ball.  Vandy, Florida, UCLA, Virginia etc... are different than most D1 programs.  Its hard to compare Florida to North Florida.

In 2018's case he does have three years of high school remaining, a lot can happen and will happen.. But at this point he is at 90+ with pitchability and strong set of coaches supporting him.

it would be foolish of him to not accept his offer.  I cannot see his options getting better.   For my other two older sons, it made sense for them to wait and see how they developed as they were not ready for this level..   every case is unique...

 

 

 

 

If your 2018 is throwing 90+ then you are in really, really good shape, barring injuries, to have that spot in three years.  

 

And I'm insanely envious. Lol. 

Just a few days ago, 90-91 in barn.... hoping for that off the mound in the spring.... but he also has to win games!  I know I know the velo is the measuring stick but, there are so many things to improve on in the next 3 years.  and don't forget at a school like Vandy, there are many doing that.  Oh and to clarify, this was just a few pitches, we are not pitching regularly at this time

bacdorslider posted:

Teaching Elder posted:

bacdorslider posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

I do not think this is a likely scenario.   In 2018's situation and everyone's is different, he looked at previous rosters from 2013, 2014, 2015 and future rosters from 2016,2017,2018.  We discussed many many scenario's with the coaching staff. We about talked to former, current and future players.  There are many different reasons why coaches recruit players some players will be first tier recruits and some will be second tier.  Some players realize their chances are not as good for playing time as others but for their own personal reasons elect to attend the school and take their chances because they want to go to school there.

As with any team a player has to improve and find ways he can help his team succeed.  There are always going to be situations , injuries, grades, improper conduct that can affect the playing time. 

But these are situations when the player has already made it to campus.  As far as committing early and something happening between the commitment and signing sure it can happen, but I would rather have that chance , than to wait and not have it. 

Remember the levels are different in D1 ball.  Vandy, Florida, UCLA, Virginia etc... are different than most D1 programs.  Its hard to compare Florida to North Florida.

In 2018's case he does have three years of high school remaining, a lot can happen and will happen.. But at this point he is at 90+ with pitchability and strong set of coaches supporting him.

it would be foolish of him to not accept his offer.  I cannot see his options getting better.   For my other two older sons, it made sense for them to wait and see how they developed as they were not ready for this level..   every case is unique...

 

 

 

 

If your 2018 is throwing 90+ then you are in really, really good shape, barring injuries, to have that spot in three years.  

 

And I'm insanely envious. Lol. 

Just a few days ago, 90-91 in barn.... hoping for that off the mound in the spring.... but he also has to win games!  I know I know the velo is the measuring stick but, there are so many things to improve on in the next 3 years.  and don't forget at a school like Vandy, there are many doing that.

I'm no one important, just another guy with a 2018 RHP, but I am interested in your kid and getting better ourselves.  First question I have is size.  Is he quite big? Or is he a smaller Dynamo?  Can obviously be both. 

Teaching Elder posted:

bacdorslider posted:

Teaching Elder posted:

bacdorslider posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

I do not think this is a likely scenario.   In 2018's situation and everyone's is different, he looked at previous rosters from 2013, 2014, 2015 and future rosters from 2016,2017,2018.  We discussed many many scenario's with the coaching staff. We about talked to former, current and future players.  There are many different reasons why coaches recruit players some players will be first tier recruits and some will be second tier.  Some players realize their chances are not as good for playing time as others but for their own personal reasons elect to attend the school and take their chances because they want to go to school there.

As with any team a player has to improve and find ways he can help his team succeed.  There are always going to be situations , injuries, grades, improper conduct that can affect the playing time. 

But these are situations when the player has already made it to campus.  As far as committing early and something happening between the commitment and signing sure it can happen, but I would rather have that chance , than to wait and not have it. 

Remember the levels are different in D1 ball.  Vandy, Florida, UCLA, Virginia etc... are different than most D1 programs.  Its hard to compare Florida to North Florida.

In 2018's case he does have three years of high school remaining, a lot can happen and will happen.. But at this point he is at 90+ with pitchability and strong set of coaches supporting him.

it would be foolish of him to not accept his offer.  I cannot see his options getting better.   For my other two older sons, it made sense for them to wait and see how they developed as they were not ready for this level..   every case is unique...

 

 

 

 

If your 2018 is throwing 90+ then you are in really, really good shape, barring injuries, to have that spot in three years.  

 

And I'm insanely envious. Lol. 

Just a few days ago, 90-91 in barn.... hoping for that off the mound in the spring.... but he also has to win games!  I know I know the velo is the measuring stick but, there are so many things to improve on in the next 3 years.  and don't forget at a school like Vandy, there are many doing that.

I'm no one important, just another guy with a 2018 RHP, but I am interested in your kid and getting better ourselves.  First question I have is size.  Is he quite big? Or is he a smaller Dynamo?  Can obviously be both. 

check your PM  ...

bacdorslider posted:

Teaching Elder posted:

bacdorslider posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

I do not think this is a likely scenario.   In 2018's situation and everyone's is different, he looked at previous rosters from 2013, 2014, 2015 and future rosters from 2016,2017,2018.  We discussed many many scenario's with the coaching staff. We about talked to former, current and future players.  There are many different reasons why coaches recruit players some players will be first tier recruits and some will be second tier.  Some players realize their chances are not as good for playing time as others but for their own personal reasons elect to attend the school and take their chances because they want to go to school there.

As with any team a player has to improve and find ways he can help his team succeed.  There are always going to be situations , injuries, grades, improper conduct that can affect the playing time. 

But these are situations when the player has already made it to campus.  As far as committing early and something happening between the commitment and signing sure it can happen, but I would rather have that chance , than to wait and not have it. 

Remember the levels are different in D1 ball.  Vandy, Florida, UCLA, Virginia etc... are different than most D1 programs.  Its hard to compare Florida to North Florida.

In 2018's case he does have three years of high school remaining, a lot can happen and will happen.. But at this point he is at 90+ with pitchability and strong set of coaches supporting him.

it would be foolish of him to not accept his offer.  I cannot see his options getting better.   For my other two older sons, it made sense for them to wait and see how they developed as they were not ready for this level..   every case is unique...

 

 

 

 

If your 2018 is throwing 90+ then you are in really, really good shape, barring injuries, to have that spot in three years.  

 

And I'm insanely envious. Lol. 

Just a few days ago, 90-91 in barn.... hoping for that off the mound in the spring.... but he also has to win games!  I know I know the velo is the measuring stick but, there are so many things to improve on in the next 3 years.  and don't forget at a school like Vandy, there are many doing that.  Oh and to clarify, this was just a few pitches, we are not pitching regularly at this time

Your son is committed and still throwing in december?  

Am I shocked?  No!

TPM we are not pitching... he threw a few....

CaCO3Girl posted:

Would the following scenario be possible?

Sophomore RHP is throwing 87, commits to D1.  His Senior year he is throwing 89, so D1 honors the commitment.  However, the RHP doesn't see the field his Freshman year, gets aggravated he is never on the mound in a game situation, doesn't increase his velocity and is subsequently cut from the program in his second year in college.

Same kid doesn't commit to a D1 his Sophomore year, instead he waits until his Senior year to commit to a D3.  As a RHP throwing 89 he gets the field time and the extra training with great instructors and eventually gets up to mid 90's and is drafted his Junior year.

 

Possible?

Scenario 1:  Since he committed early, I will assume that he got scholarship money. After freshman year, HC would probably say no more scholarship money, and he chooses to leave. Often, he would go to a lower level DI close to home. Could also transfer to DII/DIII, depending on his academics. If he gets to mid-90s, he would probably get drafted if that's his focus.

Scenario 2:  He would still have DI options during his senior year of HS, but we'll say he went DIII. Two extremely rare things in this scenario. 1) DIII getting drafted after junior year of college. 2) DIII RHP sitting mid-90s. The highest DIII draft pick in 2015 was 8th round and he was a RHP sitting at about 90. Probably more likely that he transfers to a DI for junior year (after shining in summer ball), then starts working on getting drafted.

Remember JuCo is good option, can get drafted after 2 yrs.

playball2011 posted:

Remember JuCo is good option, can get drafted after 2 yrs.

 

After one year.  FWIW son has friends who left D1 due to not having opportunity and still got drafted.  

Keep in mind not every player drafted throws 90+.