Why all the angst?

Originally Posted by Rob Kremer:

Yeah, I have read this thread and still can't find all those anti-stats people. All I see is a healthy "use them for what they are worth," attitude. Depending on the the judgment being made, HS stats range from somewhat important to relevant only in the anomaly. 

 

But "angst?" Naw.

 

Well Rob, evidently you’re idea of what “angst” is and what mine is are two different things. What do you call statements that claim stats to be irrelevant no matter what the use?

 

I’ve never said anything other than to "use them for what they are worth," but its been said I try to “cram them down people’s throats”.

Who ever said that?  Can you pull a quote from someone on this board who said that?  

Originally Posted by Swampboy:

Surprising no one, you completely missed my point and tried to lead the conversation as far from it as possible.

 

If I missed your point, it was because you didn’t make it plain, not that I “got” it and decided to ignore it.

 

My principal objection is to the way you framed this issue in your OP and follow-on comments.  You spend many hours of your life preparing high school statistics and trying to convince people to use them.

 

Well, you’re smack on target with the former, but completely wrong on the latter. I’ve always advocated that they are a tool, nothing more nothing less, and couldn’t care less if someone is so foolish as to not use a tool that could help them.

 

Everyone else thinks they are garbage.

 

And that’s where you’d not only be wrong, but you be insulting to many as well.

 

 You think everyone else's "angst" is the problem, and you feel vindicated because no one will actually use high school stats to make lineup or other coaching decisions and prove to you that they failed.

 

And you’d be completely wrong again because no matter what anyone says, every HC uses stats in one form or another to manage his team.

 

In fact, if everyone else is quite happy thinking high school stats are garbage and you alone think they are valuable, the burden is on you to show how they are not garbage. 

 

Once again, you’re assumption is I’m the only person in the world who finds value in them, and you’d be wrong.

 

I don't need to attempt to fix a wristwatch with a crowbar to know it is unsuitable for my purpose.  Same with high school stats for close judgments.

 

If you say you don’t use any stats for any reason, there’s nothing else I can say other than you’re either delusional or a liar.

 

I will go so far as to say that high school stats are of no value at distinguishing levels of skill/performance where genuine doubt exists among informed observers.  Stats can identify the handful of top players who everyone already knows should contend for player of the year, but the vast differences in scorekeeper judgment, the unevenness of competition, and the small number of reps preclude them from being a useful tool for revealing differences among players of nearly comparable skill level.  

 

And there ya go, of on a tangent I’ve reiterated ad nauseam that I don’t believe in or advocate.

 

I have seen occasions where stats can cause confusion (e.g., the third starter, who gets the ball only when the team plays three games in a week because of a make-up game or a spring break tournament, and who pitches against the weakest opponent of the week, may have better stats than one of the starters who throws more innings against better opponents), but I have NEVER seen a situation where high school stats changed my mind about the relative merit of two players.

 

If there’s any confusion, it’s the fault of the coach for not explaining things well.

 

So are you saying you look at the stats and find them of no use, or that you don’t look at them as just assume they have no value what-so-ever?

 

In the specific application you mention of helping a coach make out a lineup, they are completely useless for several reasons already mentioned plus others, including:

--Stats fail to record more than half of the observable performance because the typical high school team practices more days than it plays, and they get far more reps on practice days than game days.  Our high school coach's standard answer to parents who questioned his lineup was, "Come to practice and see what I see."  If he sees a player field 100 balls in practice during the week and 10 in the course of the two games they play, should he really let a narrow difference in in-game fielding percentage overturn the judgments he made watching the 100 reps?

 

If practice performance isn’t recorded, that the failure of the coach, not the numbers. There are coaches here who make notes and chart hitters and pitchers during practices. If you don’t, again, that isn’t anyone’s fault other than yours.  

 

--You can't accumulate enough stats to make meaningful comparisons in time to affect team performance in a short season.  High school teams in my area play a 20-game regular season.  If a coach really isn't sure which of two players deserves the last spot in the lineup a) it probably doesn't matter which of them starts because they are both replacement level players, and b) there is no way to collect a meaningful amount of stats before the season is over.  

 

So now you’re saying math is somehow not to be trusted? A player who is 1-4 has a BA of .250, as does a player who is 250-1,000. Their batting averages are the same. The thing that’s different, is how accurate judgments made using BA are. That’s on the observer, no the numbers. You act as though stats are never presented in context. The example would be the two players mentioned above only show a Name and a BA with no other information to give the BA context. Again, that’s not the fault of the numbers, it’s incumbent on the user to do more than simply take a number like BA with nothing to give it context.

 

The ball is back in your court.  You tell us what use your high school stats are, and explain why they can be useful despite the drawbacks everyone else sees in them.  Or you can keep pretending the problem is everyone else's angst.

 

You’ve made this into some kind me against the world thing, I suppose because you’re frustrated that I won’t just roll over and join the club. I’ve shown my stats over and over for nearly 20 years now. Anyone can go to my web site an see what’s posted there, and when they do they can make out of them whatever they like. To me they’re only numbers that reflect what took place during games. I make only personal judgments and don’t try to tell anyone how to use or not use them.

 

They’re available, and every player, parent, and coach having anything to do with our program knows it. Anyone can ask my opinion about anything, and they’ll get it, but I don’t pretend to tell anyone what they should use or how they should use it. However, if someone allows their mouth to overload their hindquarters and I can prove them to be wrong, I’ll do it. On the other hand, I’m just as likely to show proof of something someone says when I find it to be true.

 

Most of the stats I produce are done just for that reason, not to try to say on our team Joey has a “better” OBP than Billy, or that Tommy on our team has a better K/BB ratio than Eddie who plays on another team down the road someplace. Every season I have people who don’t look at the stats more than once or twice the entire season, and I also have people who literally look at every page I produce. I DON’T CARE! I’m gonna produce them no matter what because they interest me and provide a degree of “truth” not available to anyone who won’t use them.

 

Sorry if that doesn’t send a tingle up your leg, but that’s the way it is. Numbers are never anything more than numbers until the observer makes them something else.

He just can't help himself.

The guy is a drama queen. And he creates the drama by initiating the topic. At least the couple of times I've gone off the deep end it was someone else's topic where I passionately disagreed on a social issue. Given this is the internet I can say he's a virtual bag of wind.

Originally Posted by bballman:

Who ever said that?  Can you pull a quote from someone on this board who said that?  

 

“Everyone else thinks they are garbage.”

 

I think that qualifies.

Originally Posted by Bum:

I took several statistics courses at the master's degree level and I find Stats4Gnats' rhetoric completely incomprehensible.

 

Stats4Gnats' statistics is to baseball what a decoder ring found in a Cracker Jack box is to Scotland Yard.

 

When logic and argument fail, personal attack and marginalization are the always employed.

Good thing logic and argument have not been comprehended by you then, so you can believe you have not failed.

I find it difficult to believe someone could be this unintentionally ironic this consistently.

Stats, 

 

Congratulations.  Every rebuttal you offered included a distortion, exaggeration, distraction, equivocation, attempt to put words in my mouth, or a flat out ridiculous suggestion (e.g., are you seriously suggesting high school coaches should keep stats on practices?  There are major conference D1's that don't even keep stats on scrimmages, let alone their practices).

 

Oh, and the quote you lifted was out of context, also.

 

Thanks for helping me update my "life's too short" list.

Originally Posted by Bum:

Good thing logic and argument have not been comprehended by you then, so you can believe you have not failed.

 

And there’s where you and I differ. To me its not been about whether or not numbers produced by applying mathematics are accurate if the math was applied correctly. Its been about how those numbers are used. I haven’t advocated using them for anything other than information, unless asked for an opinion about how they COULD be used.

 

Its just too bad the discussion couldn’t have taken place without getting personal.

I'm reminded of a funny poster I once saw. A bird is three quarters swallowed by a snake as the bird screams, "Had enough yet? Are you ready to quit?"

Stats,

Come on man, you knew that this topic would bring out the worst in everyone.

It was intentionally started and worded as to bring about discussion.

Do you not have anything else in your life?

I understand your fascination with stats (HS) but come on, we all know that in the big scheme of things that the stats you try to come up with are insignificant to HS baseball.

I think that is what others are trying to tell you.

 

By the way, I did notice that in most of the topics you have started, there have been little if no replies. You did mention that there are many here who are interested in what you post, but they don't seem to be too interested in posting any question, or do they do that in private? 

I am not talking about the controversial topics that you do seem to post to get a response but then what you do is just argue their points, I am not sure that you get that.

I suggest that you thread lightly, if you want to be treated with respect than you need to give it, and from what I see,  manipulating individuals as you do the numbers, you aren't going to get it.  

This particular forum  was created so that you could come and have a place to post your "stats" and not creep it into other topics. So stop trying to take advantage of this site.

 

That's tread lightly.

The issues that I have with HS Stats are that they are in many cases kept by parents.  These parents can either unfairly credit their son with hits instead of ROE's, be homers for their home team and in the process hose the other team's players, or both.

 

The OP does seem to like drumming up controversy, and he doesn't seem to want to listen to answers that do not support his agenda.  I am wondering if his son was a .600 hitting bench player that didn't see the field much, because the coach didn't put enough value on HS Stats?

 

That statement is said because most know that HS Stats aren't going to get you far.  There are too many variables, i.e. Homer score keepers, 5A Schools playing against a 3 A School, etc.

Originally Posted by TPM:

Come on man, you knew that this topic would bring out the worst in everyone.

It was intentionally started and worded as to bring about discussion.

 

Well TPM, to be honest I kinda figgered it would turn into something ugly here, but I posted the very same OP on 4 different sites and its amazing to see the differences in how it was handled. The one that surprised me the most was what happened on a FPSB site. I’ve gained a lot of respect for those people. It was an actual discussion where idea were exchanged, and never once did anything even get close to personal.

 

And you’re correct that I was looking for discussion when I made the OP. Why else does anyone bother to post here or anywhere? Unlike some, I’m pretty sure I don’t know it all or have the right answers for everything, and I enjoy learning.  

 

Do you not have anything else in your life?

 

What does that matter, even if true?

 

I understand your fascination with stats (HS) but come on, we all know that in the big scheme of things that the stats you try to come up with are insignificant to HS baseball.

I think that is what others are trying to tell you.

 

Why is information insignificant? I don’t tell anyone how to use what I produce, and in many cases have been asked to do produce them, so why does it chap your behind so much? Does what I do hurt anyone?

 

Why do you always ignore that not everyone, even here, agree with you?

 

By the way, I did notice that in most of the topics you have started, there have been little if no replies. You did mention that there are many here who are interested in what you post, but they don't seem to be too interested in posting any question, or do they do that in private? 

I am not talking about the controversial topics that you do seem to post to get a response but then what you do is just argue their points, I am not sure that you get that.

 

And if you really looked hard you’d notice that many times topics I start have a very long life. But you are correct that most of the time on this site people do communicate with me away from the forum because they don’t want to get attacked.

 

I suggest that you thread lightly, if you want to be treated with respect than you need to give it, and from what I see,  manipulating individuals as you do the numbers, you aren't going to get it.  

 

Here we go again with the threats. What are you going to do, request that I be banned because I won’t kiss anyone’s ring? I really would like you to show me or anyone how I manipulate the numbers or people.

 

This particular forum  was created so that you could come and have a place to post your "stats" and not creep it into other topics. So stop trying to take advantage of this site.

 

I’m sorry. I didn’t know you created the site, the forums in it, and determined how they’d be used. And I’m sorry if you feel taken advantage of by me. I don’t know how I’ve done that, but I’d be interested in finding out how.

 

 

 

time to refill the bowl of popcorn

Posting this same topic  on 4 different sites proves my point.

Originally Posted by TPM:

Posting this same topic  on 4 different sites proves my point.

 

Actually, I did it to see if it was just me who thought many of the folks on this site were a bit over the top when it comes to this subject, or if perhaps it was me being crazy and unreasonable. I proved to myself that its this site, for whatever reason. There was lots of con on the other sites, but nothing like this one. For the most part, everywhere but here the discussion was pretty well balanced with little vindictiveness on either side.

 

I keep trying to tell people that no one has a lock on what’s right. There are a lot of ways to look at anything, and I think its too bad the bulk of those willing to speak on the subject here carry so much animosity toward me, and for what? For looking at baseball statistics and opining that they have value. Think about it.

 

FWIW, its really too bad from my point of view because there’s a lot of knowledge here that could be shared. But I guess once you believe you have all the answers, there’s no reason to be open to anything other than those things you happen to believe.

Either annoint yourself God or leave. For the record I've been familiar with this clown for about thirteen years on four boards. He's antagonized the majority of posters on each board. He does the best on preteen boards where most posters lack experience past the little field. He has an agenda with his brow beating people over stats whether he's consciously aware of it or not. But I'm not going to publicly bring the situation forward. It wouldn't be fair to a third party.

Disagreeing with you is not the same as being vindictive.

 

Someone else be right about something you're wrong about and proving it isn't an attack.

 

Ignoring reality doesn't make it cease to exist.

Stats,

OK, consider me pushed over the edge - into ANGST, if you will.  I have had many discussions/arguments with you here on the topic.  I'll echo what MANY here have stated.  You consistently have selective hearing, are demeaning, take things out of context, make far-reaching assumptions and more.  During the course of discussion regarding stats, I have stated on numerous occasions that I value and use stats as one of many important tools but also argue that much of what a coach needs to know, he can see with his own eyes.  Every time I made that argument, you completely ignored the first part and belittled me for being ignorant to think I, or any other coach, could accomplish the latter.  (I would go back and pull up old threads but haven't figured out how to easily find pre-format change posts).

 

I have long since given up on having any sort of meaningful dialog with you (although I occasionally get sucked back in).  I have seen many experienced baseball folk here who are otherwise very articulate, thoughtful and capable of controlled debate become equally frustrated with your antics - MANY!!.  I have had many PM me and share their frustrations and/or encourage me not to get caught up in your games.  Of the hundreds of regulars and thousands of visitors, I don't hear anything remotely close about anyone else.  I have also read where you do have a similar reputation on other sites.  So, if you truly believe that it is this site that is the problem, let me be the first to invite you to eliminate the problem from your routine.  Now that I know you have so many better options, I don't feel bad in suggesting that.

 

One of the important lessons I have learned here is that no one has all the answers and there is certainly no one here who believes they do - another ridiculous statement.

 

I, too, think it's too bad because, IF presented properly, with reasonable respect to others, your knowledge and information can be of great help.  But that IF has long since sailed.

 

"Actually, I did it to see if it was just me who thought many of the folks on this site were a bit over the top when it comes to this subject, or if perhaps it was me being crazy and unreasonable."

 

REALLY??? THAT'S WHY YOU STARTED THIS THREAD?????

 

Again, let me be the first to invite you to take your experiments elsewhere.  If it were my site, it would be much stronger than an invite.

I'm closing this discussion thread.     

 

Whatever hope there might have been of it sparking a constructive discussion has long since evaporated.

 

Stats, you are welcome to state your positions and to defend them vigorously.  You're even welcome to continue posting your pointless point-by-point refutations.  That's only fair because we all should know by now what we're in for whenever we respond to your posts, so we sort of have it coming when we jump in the mud pit with you.

 

However, I draw the line at your insulting the entire board.  If you are persuaded that our members can't sustain a conversation that meets your standards, please act on your conviction and participate on those boards that do.  It is ungracious to use the privilege of posting to disparage the forum you are using, and you should not expect to keep privileges you abuse in such a manner.

 

I will probably delete this thread after the participants have had a chance to read the most recent contributions.  Or I might preserve it to give others a chance to appreciate Jacjacatk's comment on consistent unintentional irony.