Probability Of Competing Beyond High School

So you're tellin' me there's a chance?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s

 

 

Of course all of our kids here are special and thus the odds do not apply so my kid has a 100 percent chance of staring in the pro's.

 

Actually, if you want a more relevant number take a look at how many kids your high school has sent to the next level over the last 3-5 years.  In my son's case for baseball it's around %10 and for starting linemen in football it's around %20 (which may be a reasonable number for a large, suburban school).

That's also just NCAA.  Wonder what the numbers look like to include NAIA and JUCO?

Not to mention the few NCCAA schools that are not affiliated with NAIA or D3.

 

I feel quite certain adding those numbers will drop the total % some.

 

Also, I'm assuming this chart is for all three classes (D1-D3) NCAA schools?

The 9.4% drafted from college appears to be too high.

They used 678 drafted divided by 7211 # of college seniors.

Also Stats for all college baseball (not just NCAA) here. ex. 54,165 total baseball players in college.  Lists the roster size for each team also.

Also, per MaxPreps, in 2012 there were 379 HS kids drafted.  In 2011 there were 448.

Based on 135K HS seniors above, that works out to 0.28% in 2012 and 0.33% in 2011.  Significantly less than the 0.5% posted in the chart.

The chart has some math issues.  It turns out that the numbers are even more bleak

The Percent NCAA to Professional is calculated by NCAA Student Athletes Drafted (678) divided by NCAA Senior Student Athletes (7,211) for 9.4%. A true picture?

 Work hard, be the best player you can, surround yourself with talent. Play the highest level of baseball available and then these numbers won't be that scary.

 

 Take it easy, be a big fish in a small rec league, assume your good enough. And then all of a sudden, WOW these odds suck!

 

 On a good note: The odds are not the same for everyone!

At one in a million odds, Dad thinks his kid is the 'one', and everyone else is the 'million'.

The 9.4% number fails to take into account that a lot of players who go to the pros out of college are drafted after their junior years.  Calculating based on seniors alone is wrong.

 

But also, remember that that is 9.4% (actually lower per the above) of the guys who went to NCAA ball in the first place.  Since only 1 in 14+ ever get to any level of NCAA play, basically you're looking at roughly 1% of your high school class going pro -- half of those with college, half of them without college.

If all else fails, make sure you learn from the real deal "How to play catch in front of a scout." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9DeqaR4PO8

Discussing these things in terms of odds and probability doesn't make much sense. 

 

It's like saying the odds of a team winning the NCAA tournament are 1.6% [1 out of 64].  Not all of those teams are created equal.  Florida or Arizona have a MUCH better than 1.6% chance of winning, and Albany has almost no chance of winning.  

 

Most of "who makes it" isn't based on "luck"/randomness so probability is irrelevant.  It's not a lottery where a mathematic formula makes sense.  Who makes it to the next level largely depends on skill, athletic ability, work ethic, focus, and some genetics (I would doubt that Prince Fielder's son would have the same odds as Joe Blow's son).  A given 6'4" 230lbs HS player throwing 90mph and works hard would have much better "odds" than those posted, and a 5'4" junior bench player at a low level HS who can't break 70mph would have less of a chance.  You could assign players much better "odds" or a reality check, if you saw a snapshot of what skills they had at any given point in their HS career.  

 A lot of dads of average kids probably think that until it hits them in the face. But like I said those numbers shouldn't scare anyone if they put themselves into the top 1% at every level.

????? 

 

So only one out of every 100 kid that plays baseball shouldnt be scared?  I dont know why anyone would be scared by these numbers.  Work hard, play hard, and put everything you have into it, and if you have talent, you have a greater chance.

 Yeah, ....I kinda mentioned that ...thanks!

Right on. When people conclude that the odds of making to the MLB are .5% using the table above, they're completely confused, as you point out.

 

I just wish we could lose these stats forever. They're not only meaningless, they're worse -- as has been discussed here ad nauseum.

Is that table designed to scare people and drum up business?

My perspectives are different, obviously influenced by our son's experience and those he competed with and against in college and Summer Wood bat leagues and now as a college coach. I don't think players should ever be comfortable with numbers, including those in the top 1% at every level.  The title and stat summary is about those who get a "chance" to compete, not those actually playing and  who "compete" on the field once the competition amongst teammates get finalized. Those who actually get on the college and/or Milb field and "compete" are less than the numbers in the NCAA org. charting.

The top 1% of baseball players graduating from HS is probably still a number which exceeds the number of open roster and position spots in college baseball. It certainly is in California. While some players might have that 1% talent coming out of HS, the question college and Summer Wood bat leagues expose is whether they have the mental toughness and mental effort to compete, fail and adjust and respond when nearly everyone on that field is in the top 1%. There is little doubt many in that top 1% of HS talent do.  While we will never have data, I would expect that there are as many  who are playing multiple sports, especially football, where they develop that mental aspect and edge which is so essential in college competition. The mental aspects which a sport like football can teach coupled with playing year round, for the first time, in college can end up with a player no one who saw them play during HS can recognize.

Additionally, having "failed" before college can be a major advantage in being able to "fail" on a college diamond and battle through that "failure" to success.  It isn't easy to "fail" for the first time when a player gets to college and battle back through that failure. The number of transfers out of the top 70 D1's each year is some evidence of that.

The plain fact which becomes clear sometime between November of February of every college baseball year is that no one on a college baseball diamond or in college coaching cares if you were in the top 1% before you got there.

I understand your point, but who wouldn't prefer to be in the top 1% vs the bottom 5%. Nobody cared how many trophy's Jeter won in HS, but the fact that everyone considered him to be among the top 1% or higher in the country did matter to all of MLB his senior year.

Since I don't understand the bottom 5% reference to this topic, I will leave it alone.

What I would say in response in terms of my point in contrast to  yours is how many other than Jeter were in the top 1% and where were they 4 years later? One might postulate for every Jeter type in the 1% who succeeded, perhaps an equal number within that 1% out of HS did not remain in that top 1% when measured 3-4 years later.

While that top 1% helped identify Jeter out of HS, it didn't matter the minute he stepped on a MILB field and Jeter knew that. The top 1% gets nice awards, plaques and publicity which are meaningless within 3 months when college starts or 3 weeks when the draft and short season starts..

The point about Jeter being in the top 1% also supports what I posted about the mental toughness and the difference it makes once players get beyond HS. My favorite teammate quote of all time referred to Jeter as a "competitive inferno."  He was not only in the top 1% of baseball players, he was off the charts on the mental side.

At any given day there are 750 Major Legue players.  I doubt if any of them cared what the odds were. Someone has to fill all those spots at the next level whether college or pro.  Over all the odds don't really matter.  As of now there are High School kids who have an excellent chance of being drafted in the first round.  For most everyone else they have no chance of being drafted in the first round. The odds for you could be 100%, while the odds for me is zero. I've never understood this topic that comes up often on here.  Why not add the odds of any 8 year old to play for his high school.

 

And for those that actually care about the probability of plàying beyond high school... Don't take up basketball. But bottom line... Someone has to fill all those rosters.

I think it will drop the % of players going into pro ball, but increase the % of players going on to play college ball (vs. playing NCAA ball).

 

I'll also say this.  This is an informative chart and shows the pure numbers.  Who ever said it has to be about the odds of someone going on to play?  I like PGs outlook that based on skill level, some kids have much higher odds to move on than others.  

 

I, personally have used this as a motivator to help my son feel better and more appreciative of where he has gotten.  "Son, less than 7% of HS seniors get to play NCAA baseball.  You should feel proud that you are one of them.  Do whatever you can to keep your spot and keep playing the sport you love.  You are in the minority."

 

I don't think we really need to turn the general, overall numbers into an odds machine since so much depends on the individual you are talking about.  It's not like the lottery where everyone is on equal ground.

I like these two statements.  I'll give a little personal story that relates.  My son had a pitching coach that was a former MLB pitcher.  At the time this happened, he was the AA pitching coach in the Red Sox organization.  We were talking just before my son's HS tryouts for his freshman year.  I told him I would like to see my son pitch on varsity and play position on JV.  Pitching coach said, he should pitch on varsity and if he does, I hope he gets rocked.  I was taken aback.  What do you mean you want him to get rocked?  He explained that at the AA level where he was coaching, one of the biggest problems he had to deal with were kids that had been dominant their whole lives.  He said eventually everyone would get hit and hit hard.  The issue became how tough these guys were mentally.  He said they had many VERY good pitchers who, when faced with the adversity of getting hit and giving up a bunch of runs, had a very hard time coming back from that.  They lost their confidence and belief in themselves.  They became tentative and didn't trust their stuff.  He wanted my son to experience that before he reached the next level so that he already had the experience of dealing with it and coming back from it.  Very insightful.

 

So, I agree, there are many people in the 1%.  One of the bigger aspects that differentiates them is how they mentally deal with failure and adversity.  Some work through it and become stronger, some struggle and never overcome the hurdle.

Every kid's odds are different. The son of a MLB pitcher has better odds than Woody Allen's son. The MLB pitcher's son has the genes that will likely physically develop him to have potential. He'll have better access to instruction and training.

When my son was ten he wanted to play basketball in the ACC someday. I warned him he was going to grow up to be a 6'2" white kid.

Woody Allen's son likely has a better chance than an ordinary kid, too. He's got lots of access to the greatest Performance Enhancing Substance there is; Money.