11.3%  Now I know why hockey parents are completely nuts.   

I like the "NCAA Freshman Roster Positions" numbers for baseball. Second only to football.

I wonder if the HS to pro numbers in baseball are especially high because the minors is counted as pro.

When you get paid to play any sport you are a professionals.  The reason the % is higher  is higher, I suppose, is that you CAN play bb out of HS as a pro, but for football and basketball, the requirement is college first.

I assume so, which opens up other questions. For football, are they counting the AFL and various other lower level professional indoor leagues? For basketball, are they counting overseas pro teams?

The comment that is quoted above is not that of justbaseball. I made the mistake too.

Sorry TD.

Interesting numbers, thanks!

are these number based on the number of D1 schools that have baseball  ( 298) ?  I would think so... Also I would guess most of the drafted D1 players are coming from a select group of schhols... for instance more draftees coming from Vandy than a lower D1 with poor baseball.

Don't know, but my thought is that since its from the NCAA that it would include ALL levels...D1, D2 and D3.

 

I don't think it includes JC and NAIA since its numbers have titles like, "NCAA Freshman Roster Positions"

I think you are correct.  If there are 298 D1 schools X 35 players on a roster...that = 10430.

The number printed is three times that size and would encompass all NCAA levels, I would think.

If the numbers posted by the NCAA are remotely accurate, that would suggest that the numbers of high school baseball players who end up playing at the D1 level is roughy 0.021 %.  Tall order, indeed!

       
       
Sorry i am a little late to the party on this thread and for the record I am not good looking!  But these numbers in reality are not so ugly.  I do think you are correct that most of our kids are at least above average so it may bring a bit of a skewed viewpoint.  But even as a coach going back well before I had kids of my own it has always been my experience that if a kid had just a little bit of ability and really wanted to play in college there was a spot for him somewhere.  So people shouldn't be afraid of those numbers.  D1 remains quite elusive.  There may be a few bottom feeder D1 programs that will take on marginal players but for the most part it remains very difficult to attain.  If you get there it is a hell of an accomplishment.  But what I would like to see is more realistic numbers based upon a case study.  How many actually wanting to play in college being your starting point.  Then although no numerical study can separate dreamers from workers we all know of the kids who say they want to play college but then proceed to do nothing about it.  I realize I come to the table with no hard evidence (my very own pet peeve) but I would be willing to bet that of the pool of kids who want to play and actually work towards that goal an astonishing percentage wind up playing in college.

I would agree with jolietboy, If a player wants to play in college bad enough he can find a place.  One would have to think there a many hs baseball players that do not want to play college baseball.  last year at our HS we had 9 sr's ..... 6 of those wanted to play college baseball... and all six  found a place... a D1 , D2, NAIA and 3 JUCO's  ... another went to the Marines, adn two went academic. 

 

There are so many factors.... in my own exp....at our school we generally have 5-7 sr's go on to play college baseball.  BUT we are a baseball school with many titles, 2000+ students. Our facilities are better than most colleges.  Tryouts are in July and theres 150-175 trying out.   So if you make the team you have a good chance of playing in college.  Now some of the teams in our district are football minded and they do not have good baseball their kids are not interested in playing college baseball yet they are taking a position in these numbers.

Bacdor I have had both experiences.   I coached at elite programs with the 100something kids trying out and I now coach where we make no cuts at all (sigh).  Those elite programs like you say pretty much all who don't take a diffferent scholarship (football, academic etc.) Play college ball.  Now at my current school very few do.  But how much do you REALLY want to play college ball if you do nothing baseball related 8 months out of the year?  My son is only in 7th grade and he already is making an adult like committment to his first love.  I would be pretty shocked if he didn't play college ball at SOME level.  It is still january and he is pushing 70mph.  Hopefully during season he will be there or maybe even low 70's.   Now how hard is it going to be to get to say 83 or 84mph by the time he is 18?  Answer is not very.  And at that velocity he is pitching somewhere.   Now it is only a matter of how much better can he get?  It just burns me how kids will say they want something, do nothing of substance to get it, then just turn to numbers like 6.8 and say well it was just too hard.

But there are only a limited number of positions in College. I agree that if a player really wants to play he can find a place. But what type of sacrifice would it take. perhaps they have to sacrifice academics, or the college experience. I guess that when push comes to shove they do not have baseball as their highest priority. 

It is not like there are an abundance of coaches saying I cannot find enough bodies or talent. 

       
       
You are absolutely correct.  It comes down to is baseball the priority or is it something else.  And yes some D3's definitely struggle to fill out their roster.  So for some maybe the question is what are the odds of playing where I want?  Much different story there.  However I must say I think your education is what you make of it and you can get a great education pretty much anywhere.  Now if you need an ivy or something like that of course it is a game changer.

Bodies? Yes. Talent? Every coach would like to have more talent.

Here is another interesting site that provides some different numbers regarding scholarships and the number on each roster. It includes all levels of NCAA as well as NAIA and JUCO. I'm not sure how often it's updated in relation to some of these numbers, but it gives a pretty good estimate as to the actual roster sizes and the amount of athletic aid and other aid available.

I like poking around in the different sports and had to do some quick internet research to figure out what Sprint Football is.

http://www.scholarshipstats.com

       
       
One thing we all have to make clear though is there is a huge difference (especially in baseball) between playing in college and getting an actual baseball scholarship.  Got to be pretty damn good to get what little money they have to give!

 

I'll take you one step further jolietboy....it is one thing to be on a college roster and another thing to actually get to play (even more so for 4 years).  These numbers (http://www.ncaa.org/about/reso...g-beyond-high-school) may look small, but in reality they are ridiculously small.  JMO.

When I saw this topic a week ago, I almost waded in, but decided not to because I figured justbaseball was simply sharing information (from Sept. 2013; not that it's changed any) ... and he DID make the point that OUR sons are different, ala Lake Wobegon

 

But since it's come around again, I went to my saved threads and found the one titled THE ODDS OF PLAYING, kicked off a year ago by PGStaff. Begging his forgiveness, I'll quote him here:

 

"Some that talk about the odds, maybe rightfully so, claim it is all about being realistic.  Well, I'm sure glad that many don't want to be realistic or we wouldn't have a next level.  I look at the odds like this... I'm only interested in what my odds are, don't care what everyone else's odds are!  Actually why even care what the odds are? And if you fail to reach the top, is that the end? Shoot for the moon or you won't get there."

 

Odds? Probabilities? Phooey!!

That's what makes the odds nothing more than interesting. They treat every high school player as equal. For example, the stud 6A lefty pitcher throwing 95mph has a slightly different "odds for playing in college" than the 5'4" end-of-the-bench player.

There's a place for everyone if they really want to play. Our local JuCo has former mediocre high school players starting. I'm sure it's not the only situation in the country like this.

 

A kid from our high school, who never started will leave college as a four year starter. All he had to do was get accepted to Cal Tech.

       
       
I do have to stress though I am on the side of the odds being deceiving.   Yes it is very very hard to get a D1 baseball scholarship.   But just to play college 'somewhere'?  I think this is almost a where there is a will there is a way thing.  Not trying to be mean but there are a lot of really mediocre high school baseball players out there and they all count against that 6.8 number.  I think if you are a very successful high school kid with decent measurables you will play somewhere.

LOL! Isn't that the same Cal Tech team that has 2 victories in the past 125 years? I'd rather my son be one of those kids than a good-but-not-great SEC starter. I might evne go so far as to say that I'd tell my kid to go to Cal Tech (assuming he could get in) even if he were a high D1 prospect.

Even Cal tech falls afoul of the NCAA

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/...91456397--ncaab.html

 

The baseball team really drags down the SOS for the SCIAC. 

This says it all ...

 

At a time when agents fund AAU programs, boosters bribe top recruits and shoe-apparel companies hire parents of elite prospects as consultants, it's nice to know the NCAA has its priorities in order. On Thursday, it put Caltech in its crosshairs.

 

There used to be a joke ... Notre Dame must have just done something wrong. Ball State was just put on probation.

Makes you wonder if Cal tech would ever have won a game without this infraction.  Will they be taking those wins away or should I say that one win?  Who blew the whistle? When will common sense prevail? Maybe the complaint came from Pacifica?

 

PASADENA, Calif. -- California Institute of Technology's baseball team ended a 228-game losing streak Saturday with a 9-7 victory over Pacifica -- the Beavers' first win in nearly 10 years.

After dropping the first game of its season-opening doubleheader 5-0, Caltech won the second behind a complete-game seven-inning effort by freshman Daniel Chou. Caltech hadn't won since Feb. 15, 2003.

"It was almost as if they had been there before," first-year coach Matthew Mark said.

It was a non-conference game, though, and Caltech, mainly a Division III participant, has not won a Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference contest since 1988 -- a span of 463 games.

Caltech's men's basketball team ended a 310-game conference losing streak in 2011, while the women's volleyball team ended a 56-match losing streak last year.

 

Copyright 2013 by The Associated Press

Probability of Competing Beyond HS:  100% in most parents minds when their sons are 0-8 yrs of age.

My first born son was 4 in the early 90's and I really believed he was going to be the next Nolan Ryan.  

Even though he gave up baseball in high school the memories of playing catch are priceless. 

Caltech, the school that couldn't succeed at sports if it cheated, has turned itself in to the NCAA for cheating.

 

One of the country's losingest athletic programs has chosen to vacate wins it doesn't have, shut down the recruiting it doesn't do and be ineligible for championships it never wins.

 

In an announcement as stunning as the ones that brag about a professor discovering the secrets of the universe, Caltech said this week it has joined the likes of USC and Ohio State in NCAA jail by being placed on three-years' athletic probation.

 

Probation from what, exactly, we're not entirely sure. The Beavers aren't on TV, they don't give scholarships, they rarely qualify for postseason tournaments. The baseball team will vacate all wins during a period in which it went 0-112. The men's water polo team will vacate wins achieved while going 0-66.

 

- LA Times

But isn't that the point!

 

The player at the end of the bench, or more particularly, their parent's...genuinely believe that the handful of college coaches in the stands and along the fence, are there to see him!

If I had a son who was committed to a D1 school, the view from my lense is absolutely different from the one who isn't!  

 

Also, if I coached, played, or was a parent of a top high school program, the view could be that ALL kids could find a place to play in college.  But in reality, maybe all of THEIR kids could find a place!  I'm not sure how many high school baseball programs there are in the United States, but in Virginia there are roughly 400 (give or take).  Meanwhile, there are maybe 25-30 college baseball programs?!?!  (Primarily D1 and D3)

 

I guess I just simply disagree with the idea that ANY kid could find a place to play.  I do agree that any kid with talent and the desire could find a place to play!  Hence, the 6.8%  Most kids are lacking one or the other!  Normally it's the lack of talent, which leads to a lack of desire!

Sometimes parents get confused on what a college coach is looking for in a player.   You can have a mature oversized player who can hit 25 HR's in high school playing in a small and/or weak program.  He looks to the parent and community as a "draft pick"  but his future body type, lack of bat speed, inability to hit off speed etc.... is what the college coach sees..

 

2014 had a scout ask him if he thought he was ready for Milb.... and of course he said yes.  The scout then said let me ask you in a different way, he said are you ready to go to spring training and play against 20-26 years old and take someones job? 

 

Another scout told us that while scouting they just do not look at what you do well but more importantly what you do poorly.... parents.... bless them.

This jumped out at me, bds.

 

Was he asking if your son could handle it emotionally, implying that some young men might feel bad taking their jobs? Or was he asking if your son had the confidence in himself that he could compete and win against those guys? 

 

And if you're comfortable sharing ... what did your son say?

 

That was a long converstation that day. I think he was asking him if he could handle it emotionally , but 2014 never really felt bad about taking the job, but rather can you hand the emotional highs and lows. Sure he liked 2014, he's 6'4 180 throwing 90 projects to the pro game but theres the 18 year old way of thinking and the reality.  This guy was able to replay the entire game pitch by pitch.  He knew what pitch he threw to the 3 hole hitter the second time through the order with a runner on and a 1-1 count.  He knew what his ball/strike ratios were, swing and /miss and on what pitch....

 

  He told him and I quote"  I just saw you throw a no -hitter... and you can hit your spots 3 out of 4 times and you'll dominate HS players, hell you will dominate most college players, but you have to prove to me you can get minor league guys out."

 

My point is for us anyway, when the conversations are real... they are real.... I heard

a lot of crap from college RC through the years, but the hard cold truth from the pro guys.

 

The guy was giving us great advice... Are you ready to to leave home, live on your own and still have the balls to take a guys postion?  Sure your dominating right now, but you wont be there and are you going to keep working and figure it out, or are you going to fold?  

 

Needless to say , we did not have to worry about it, and it was a good thing becasue 2014 was not even close to being mature enough.  Right now he's at a top Juco, and scouts are still coming to see him pitch, but I can tell after two years of college he will be more of a man and ready.  Some players might be ready, but most ar not.  If you are not getting life changing money go to college.

 

I know a kid that went in the 39 round, a position player, spent a short season and a full season in spring training, now he's out of the game.

 

 

 

A kid about five years ahead of my son was drafted in the 7th round out of high school. He also had a scholarship offer to a top academic, ranked program. With his family financial background the entire package was a free ride. He had been raised by his grandmother. He felt he owed her something and signed. 

 

What this all conference, all county, all metro, 7th round pick did wrong was he only looked at his talent. All these awards told him he was ready. What he overlooked was he was a 6'1", 170 pound kid who didn't even turn eighteen until after short season was over. He was competing against mostly physically developed twenty-one and twenty-two year old players just out of college. 

 

Short season was a disaster. In fact, all three of his short seasons were a disaster until he was released. This kid had the potential. He was a 7th round pick. He was an incredible athlete. But he wasn't ready physically and emotionally. In three years he never hit .200. He struck out a third of his at bats. As the pressure got to him he made a ridiculous number of errors. 

 

After being released he was only nineteen. He spent the next three years playing Indy ball hoping to be noticed. During that time I chatted with him at a baseball facility he was working. He told me he made a big mistake not going to college.

jp,

That was great advice from bds.  He gets it now, but it took him awhile, I am proud of him! That scout was right on the money!

No drafted HS player will ever take an older players job out of his first spring training as the goal for these guys is to play upper levels in a few years.  Even Bryce Harper had a lot of growing up to do, his folks lived with him during season.

The seasoned drafted college player is more likely to take the spot away from the 24-27 year old.

There are two different types of spring training, milb and MLB, two different animals. If one gets lucky to get invited to ML camp for a look from the top, that's a good thing, but that doesnt happen for everyone. 

 

JP24,

 

I would like to add that last fall 2013 was pitching against a team of Sr's that are all signed D1 or going in draft.... while they are very good HS players and have a bright future...they were 17-18.  2013 being 20 with 70 college innings, ate them alive.  

 

I suspect the same thing would happen when they go to their  school or spring training.. While they are very good high school players, he was able to win the mental game and had them guessing.  The late break on the off speed and not being able to pick up the ball fast enough threw them off.   Experience is very important.  A couple of years makes a huge difference.