Around_The_Horn posted:It is always interesting to see the response of those whose views are in direct opposition of presented data. This post was dead for about a day, then after my post there is a flurry of action. Usually a sign of some sort of emotion. I will not respond to all the comments directly, but I will respond to some of the questions here:
1) Questioning the data (always the norm when you don't like the data) - I will not give out individual information on any specific person. All the data is public information if you look for it you to can find it. Specifically to the 4 Vandy pitchers, yes that is exactly what I have, if you want Vandy 7th grade data you can find some in the 2020, 2021, 2023 commits. Yes, they have not walked onto campus yet, but their data is there and it tells us something.
2) Success Bias - Generally this argument goes, "Well yes your data is looking at the top performers, your only getting the top 1-2%. What about the others?" True, I said that the majority of my data comes from Power 5 conferences. Only 2% of high school players play DI. The Power 5 get the pick of the litter of that 2%. Now the flip side of this is that there could be a runt early on and could become a giant by the end of high school. That is true too. There is no growth police. But the data does not play that out. If it was a common occurrence then the data would show that, but it doesn't. The average would be lower in the 50's or 60's or with a much greater standard deviation. But that is not what the data shows. Sorry.
3) Throwing hard early is not a guarantee. That is absolutely true. I never stated that it did. What it does do, is give more of an indicator that the player is on track. That is all. Nothing more nothing less.
4) Humor - Then there are always those that use humor to shield themselves. It is a normal coping mechanism.
Something I learned and find fascinating. I was at the 2019 PG WS that was mentioned. At the time of the tournament the velo's for the top performers was listed. But as you pointed out, they are no longer there. I imagine this is PG trying to comply with COPPA regulations maybe. I don't know. However, you can still see the velo's if you go in to DiamondKast and look at the individual pitches.
As many have pointed out your data is not comprehensive and doesn’t tell the whole story. Some may find it interesting but you can’t build a premise on it.