1 of out 5 Kids

1-in-5 is probably about right overall, but there are a lot of factors depending on the school.

Our school had 2 freshman teams last year (A & B), I think 26 total kids.  Close to half of those players are probably out as Sophomores.

The prior year, Freshman team had 14 players. Sophomore year, 3 of them got cut & 1 moved away.

Plus, you typically have a few who don't see the field much freshman year, realize that's their best case scenario moving forward & don't try out the next year.

CBI Team Roster Turnover Insights eliminates the guess work, here is the attrition of Tennessee for 2023 season.

NCAA-D1 data collection to be completed by Monday, thus you can quickly see freshman attrition.

@Francis7 posted:

The premise: One out of every 5 freshman players starting school in the fall will no longer be in the baseball program in the following spring.

Think that's too high or too low?

(Premise is based on nothing. I just randomly picked a number to start the conversation.)

I noticed that collegebaseballinsights commented in this thread.  They have a great website for looking at each team and seeing what level of attrition happens with a freshman class.   From what I have seen, the answer to this question varies depending upon the level of baseball you are talking about.  From looking at numbers, the Power 5 programs seem to have the least amount of patients with players, and have a lot more attrition with Freshman than the lower D1 programs.   

Look we all have to recognize that College baseball is a cutthroat business.  Coaches are paid to win games, not be honest and fair with players.    This past year has really been an eye opening experience for me learning what recruiting is all about, investigating programs and how they manage their rosters etc....    I've see some D1 programs cut as much as 50% of the freshman class by Thanksgiving.   Some of those kids were committed to that school since their were 9th and 10th graders in high school, and given no more of chance to make a spring roster than a few months of college fall baseball.   

Francis;

When the Big Ten schools had Freshman Baseball, 90 players were on the roster. Four years later, only 5 players survived to play in the College World Series. The World Series team included 3 QB who played in the Rose Bowl and one Hockey Player.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Francis;

When the Big Ten schools had Freshman Baseball, 90 players were on the roster. Four years later, only 5 players survived to play in the College World Series. The World Series team included 3 QB who played in the Rose Bowl and one Hockey Player.

Bob

In 1890 my great grandfather played three college sports … football, indoor track and baseball.

@RJM posted:

In 1890 my great grandfather played three college sports … football, indoor track and baseball.

Jeff Passan wrote a book called, "The Arm" that is a deep dive into the issue of Ulnar Collateral Ligament injuries in pitchers.   In the book, he and James Andrews MD discuss something called "specialization of youth sports."  It's the idea that middle school and high school athletes no longer diversify their time and activity into different sports at different season of the year, but rather select one sport at a young age and only play/focus on that one sport.  Often it ends up being a year round commitment.   

Andrews points out that the rise in "specialization of youth sports" coincides with a lot of the injury numbers that his Orthopedic group has encountered over the years.  More Tommy John surgeries with baseball players.  More Rotator Cuff injuries in high School QB's.  More ACL injuries in basketball players.  More back and shoulder surgeries in football players etc...

Of course it's a vicious cycle isn't it?   How many D1 baseball players ended up being 3 sport athletes in high school let alone college?   

@Ster posted:

Jeff Passan wrote a book called, "The Arm" that is a deep dive into the issue of Ulnar Collateral Ligament injuries in pitchers.   In the book, he and James Andrews MD discuss something called "specialization of youth sports."  It's the idea that middle school and high school athletes no longer diversify their time and activity into different sports at different season of the year, but rather select one sport at a young age and only play/focus on that one sport.  Often it ends up being a year round commitment.   

Andrews points out that the rise in "specialization of youth sports" coincides with a lot of the injury numbers that his Orthopedic group has encountered over the years.  More Tommy John surgeries with baseball players.  More Rotator Cuff injuries in high School QB's.  More ACL injuries in basketball players.  More back and shoulder surgeries in football players etc...

Of course it's a vicious cycle isn't it?   How many D1 baseball players ended up being 3 sport athletes in high school let alone college?   

I have a personal theory on this.  Mind you... totally unencumbered by data or research...  I think this particular injury arises not so much purely from overuse but rather because kids are able to throw so hard now at younger ages without the necessary physical stability/structure; things like full development of the rotator cuff "decelerators".  I seem to see a lot of 14 y.o. kids who are 6ft, 145lbs chedding red at (just for you adbono) 85+mph.  Maybe pitchers were slower to get to those velocities before?   Perhaps... just because you can throw that hard, maybe you should wait to do so?  Admittedly I acknowledge I could be full of S#@$.

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

I have a personal theory on this.  Might you... totally unencumbered by data or research...  I think this particular injury arises not so much purely from overuse but rather because kids are able to throw so hard now at younger ages without the necessary physical stability/structure; things like full development of the rotator cuff "decelerators".  I seem to see a lot of 14 y.o. kids who are 6ft, 145lbs chedding red at (just for you adbono) 85+mph.  Maybe pitchers were slower to get to those velocities before?   Perhaps... just because you can throw that hard, maybe you should wait to do so?  Admittedly I acknowledge I could be full of S#@$.

I'm going to keep it simple, you are spot on.  Focus on core, lower half, extension.  If you enter HS throwing 78 to 80 as a freshman, with a goal to add 2 mph per yr, you will be at 88 - 90 by SR yr.

Bottom line focus on mechanics (command) and allow it to progress when viable.  Playing multiple sports will allow the student athlete to work the other muscles and relax overused muscles.

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

I have a personal theory on this.  Might you... totally unencumbered by data or research...  I think this particular injury arises not so much purely from overuse but rather because kids are able to throw so hard now at younger ages without the necessary physical stability/structure; things like full development of the rotator cuff "decelerators".  I seem to see a lot of 14 y.o. kids who are 6ft, 145lbs chedding red at (just for you adbono) 85+mph.  Maybe pitchers were slower to get to those velocities before?   Perhaps... just because you can throw that hard, maybe you should wait to do so?  Admittedly I acknowledge I could be full of S#@$.

I think if you throw really hard, the majority of those pitchers will have a torn UCL at some point. It’s just a matter of when.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

I'm going to keep it simple, you are spot on.  Focus on core, lower half, extension.  If you enter HS throwing 78 to 80 as a freshman, with a goal to add 2 mph per yr, you will be at 88 - 90 by SR yr.

Bottom line focus on mechanics (command) and allow it to progress when viable.  Playing multiple sports will allow the student athlete to work the other muscles and relax overused muscles.

This is great advice and it’s what we preach to the HS pitchers we train - especially the younger ones. But not very many of them listen. Nor do their parents. Every social media post is about velo, spin rate, or something else that’s irrelevant until you know how to pitch.

I was concerned with how hard my son throw as a preteen relative to his late bloomer size. He hit 68 on the gun as a five foot 12yo. He was at 73 at 5’2” the following year. I held him back pitching wise. He still hit 90 at 6’1” 170  junior year.

I believe the biggest cause of arm injuries is the early quest for velocity and how hard professional pitchers throw. I believe the pros have exceeded what an arm can physically tolerate.

https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-g...n-orthopedic-surgeon

Maybe a visit to the Doctor's office to learn the dangers. Player and Parent.

Adbono, did you know Dizzy Dean's grandson had his 2nd index finger stretched, so he could throw hard curve? Daffy Dean was the father.

Bob