2011 national district predictions?

Yes, 0-4 in the first round of the Regional.

This one of those Districts that will be competitive amongst themselves, but unless a dominant pitcher emerges during the season they really can't compete against the other Districts to get to the regionals. Baseball is just not that big in the areas these schools are located. I HATE saying this, as I grew up in that area (minus Loudoun), but that is the way I see it. PLEASE, someone prove me wrong...I mean that...

Edison
Falls Church

Loudoun Valley
Mount Vernon
Stuart, JEB
Wakefield
Washington Lee
Yorktown

I'll take a stab...Edison, Loudoun, Yorktown, W & L...pick the rest...

I think Hayfield will compete for the title in the National District.

quote:

Originally posted by golfball:
I think Hayfield will compete for the title in the National District.

VHSL has Hayfield listed in the Patriot...maybe I got an old version. If so, I agree...Hayfield would be right up top of that district.

Hayfield left the Patriot last year and Woodson joined.

quote:

Originally posted by novabball:
Hayfield left the Patriot last year and Woodson joined.

You are right...this what came up in google...
http://community.digitalsports.com/html/p_hs_vhsl.asp

That website is either outdated or inaccurate. Hayfield hasn't been in the Patriot district for over a year. Woodson took their place. Hayfield should dominate the National district this year, and may be the only team from this district to get a Regional win.

They switched last year.

You are correct, novabball -- Woodson's switch to the Patriot District became effective at the beginning of the school year, in September 2009.

Hayfield was in the National starting in Fall 2009 as well. There was a prediction on this forum that they would dominate the National in baseball in 2010. That didn't happen as they finished in the middle of the pack. They have some very good returning players and may end up winning it this year, but I wouldn't necessarily expect them to run away with it. The National did win in last year's regional first round as W&L beat Stone Bridge.

BTW, Loudoun Valley's stay in the National was brief and they haven't been in it for baseball since 2007, I believe.

Its true that traditionally the National never gets very far in regionals, but they did represent themselves well last year imo. Not only did W&L knock off Stone Bridge, but Yorktown took Fairfax to the brink as well, with Fairfax eventually winning a rain-shortened contest.

Fairfax went on to take WS to extra innings in the next round and WS ended up being state champs.

All Im saying is that there are years where the National district produces teams that can play with good teams from other districts in the postseason.

Uh....I agree?

I dont see where anyone in this entire thread discounted either game because of rain.

I posted only to stick up for the National and say that they had some teams play good teams tough in last years regional tournament. Didnt even know that W-Ls win over Stone Bridge was shortened by the rain, but thanks for educating me.

Transitive property of inequalities? Save it friend. I wasn't trying to "persuade anyone with my logic". Was only saying that the National deserves at least a little credit when you look back at how last years' NR tournament shook out. Other posters on this thread have been very dismissive of the National, so I was just trying to point out some recent small scale successes.

Also, Id be careful about calling the Liberty weaker than the Concorde was last year. Traditionally? Sure. Last year? Im not sure the facts support that statement. The Concorde had two teams in the entire district with winning records.

I certainly don't want to be "hostile", but felt like you twice responded (rather condescendingly) to statements that I never actually made (i.e. Yorktown must be almost as good as the state champs...).

I like this message board but its odd being taken to task on something that was neither said said nor insinuated in the first place. Yorktown playing Fairfax tough and Fairfax playing WS tough just means to me that the National didnt get embarrassed altogether last year, which we both seem to agree on anyway like you said.

Moving on.........

OK, then...moving on...back to the original question that was asked, and now that we have established that Hayfield is in the National District, here is my prediction: Hayfield will take the district easily this year, on the back of its returning players. They have at least 2 DI players (I will not ever mention names in this forum, but most who are familiar know who we're talking about) that will carry them, along with a handful of other decent players. They will also be the only National team that will win a Regional game this year, as this district will be paired against a much stronger district in 2011. The next three National teams? -- probably Edison is going to be second, then it's a total crapshoot from there -- could be Yorktown and W&L..

I can agree with hayfield, but I think there are going to be some unexpected and short lived surges by a few surprising teams in the national district. For instance I hear that Stuart has 7 returning seniors and has added a very reliable pitcher from O'connel. Not only that but they apparently have been having crazy offseason work done as a team since the begginning of summer 2010... Meanwhile other teams like Yorktown and w&l are both losing basically their whole starting roster from last season.

Yorktown and W&L lost some real good players, but they both have a number of starters returning. In W&L's case, I believe they have about 4 all district players returning, including 1 all district pitcher and another who was all district at another position but was also probably their best pitcher at the end of the season. Both those teams have a chance to give Hayfield a run for their money. Mt. Vernon shouldn't be counted out either.

Stuart was much-improved last year and may indeed be ready to be a factor this year. They definitely should win more games than last year but it's hard to picture them finishing in the top 3. They certainly could pass Edison and make a run at 4th, though, and if the transfer pitcher from O'Connell is good, who knows?

Haha it is hard to see Stuart in the top 3 but who knows is right, baseball is capable of many crazy things. But as for hayfield, last year they should have easily won the district but I don't know if winning goes to their head or what but they had attitude issues last year and lost a couple of sure fire "win" games including one to Stuart.

If what you say about w&l is true then they're obviously strong contenders for the title, as well as hayfield.

My predictions:
W&L
Hayfield
Stuart/Yorktown
Yortown/Stuart
Edison
Mt Vernon
Wakefield
Falls Church

very solid picks SmokyMcPot. I think Stuart could be extremely talented this year given the return of several all district players and other talented players. Who knows, they could really turn some heads. Yorktown and Hayfield are gonna be sick and W and L is gonna be good too. Why is everybody putting Edison so high on their list they lost several players from an average team no?

My pick is Stuart.

Young and hungry. I heard, having played against them, this group of young players are a cohesive group that have played together since little league.

For the record, here are the regular season standings and district records from last year.

W&L 13-1
Mt Vernon 12-2
Yorktown 10-4
Hayfield 7-7
Edison 7-7
Stuart 4-10
Wakefield 3-11
Falls Church 0-14

Yorktown beat Mt Vernon and W&L in the tournament to take the championship.

I mentioned some of what I believe W&L has returning. I believe Yorktown is returning the 4 hitters with the highest batting averages of last year's starters, and 5 of the top 6. Among those is Shaun Wood, who hit over .500. On the other hand they lost the district pitcher of the year, who threw almost half their innings last year, and some other key senior leaders. The baseball talent pool at Yorktown is deep (though probably not as deep or strong at the top as some of the schools in other districts) and other players can be expected to step up given the opportunity.

I don't feel plugged in enough to make more specific predictions, but I'm comfortable positing that the regular season winner will be Hayfield, W&L, or Yorktown. I would also expect those teams to finish as the top 3 in the regular season, though I can see arguments for Mt Vernon and Stuart. It could easily be another year where the regular season champ doesn't win the tournament. Redsoxfan4615, like you I'm not sure why some are picking Edison high but they may know something we don't.

Other than interloper Loudoun Valley's short run in 2007, I don't believe any National team has done much in the regional since Yorktown made the semis in both 2003 and 2004. I'm not venturing an opinion whether this year will be different. I believe they'll be matched against the Concorde in the first round.

Several good points by brewball, all of those teams look to be tough. The national district is traditionally a weak district, but any of the top 4 teams are gonna pull an upset in regionals, count on it. And stuart's group isn't young, they have 7 senior starters on the squad who have been playing with each other since youth league except for the o connell transfer and a lake braddock transfer. They'll certainly be tough nonetheless. The records at the end of district play aren't going to be indicative of talent because the top teams are going to be killing each other on and off all season; it'll be grueling schedules all around. The regional tournament will be interesting to say the least.

I know of at least two players who have the potential from Stuart: John Harrison and their all-around exceptional center fielder Ryan Herron. I know from a confirmed source Mr. Herron is looking to college for diving, but have not heard anything of Mr. Harrison. I know Logan Harris of Falls Church has the potential but I have not heard anything of him either. and im pretty sure there are at least 3 on each of yorktown w&l and hayfield who must have the potential.

Josh Eldridge from Hayfield can play and Id be willing to bet will get some scholarship money from a D1 school somewhere.

I think the point LowChange was making is that there are players from most other northern districts, as well as private school conferences, that already have 2011 and 2012 grads with verbal and written commitments to D1 schools. The National District teams show zero commited players at any level, for baseball, on any of the reputable scouting/recruiting sites.

After some digging I found 1 National district 2011 signing, according to the Washington Post:

Spera, Cory Hayfield 2011 P signed Lafayette

I agree that Eldridge should get some attention. He has the tools. Needs to get on a summer team that will give him the exposure he needs. I'll copy and paste what the Post and PerfectGame has for commitments...

Area college commitments from Washington Post:

Player name High school Year Pos. All-Met Status Colleges
Britton, Kory Atholton 2011 P/Util second team, 2010 signed Maryland
Clarke, Taylor Broad Run 2011 P signed Towson
Gandee, Zach DeMatha 2011 OF verbal Sacred Heart
Morris, Zach DeMatha 2011 P signed Cincinnati
Vanderplas, Joseph Fairfax 2011 P signed Tennessee
Shaklee, Shaun Gar-Field 2011 P signed Virginia Commonwealth
Spera, Cory Hayfield 2011 P signed Lafayette
Owens, Ryan Lake Braddock 2011 OF verbal Mount St. Mary's
Towns, Kenny Lake Braddock 2011 SS/P HM, 2010 verbal Virginia
Saleck, Tyler Loudoun County 2011 3B/P verbal Air Force
Sborz, Josh McLean 2012 1B/P verbal Virginia
Skidmore, Tyler North Stafford 2011 SS verbal Mount St. Mary's
Carroll, Chad Oakton 2011 SS signed James Madison
Willis, Luke Oakton 2011 OF verbal Coastal Carolina
Aker, Mitch Paul VI Catholic 2012 RHP/Util verbal William & Mary
Garner, Ben Paul VI Catholic 2011 RHP/OF signed James Madison
Kianka, Matt Paul VI Catholic 2011 OF HM, 2010 signed Virginia Commonwealth
Kidd, Robbie Paul VI Catholic 2011 RHP/OF signed Cal State-Fullerton
Veeder, Lansing Paul VI Catholic 2011 SS HM, 2010 signed St. Joseph's
White, J.J. Penn State 2011 C signed Penn State
Estrain, Brandon River Hill 2011 P signed UNC-Pembroke
Bouey, Will Sherwood 2011 P signed Maryland
Beal, Evan South County 2011 P signed South Carolina
Frazier, Tyler South County 2011 INF signed UNC-Greensboro
Perez, Michael South County 2011 C HM, 2010 signed Old Dominion
Putnick, Stephen Stone Bridge 2011 P offer Towson
Hough, Bryson W.T. Woodson 2011 P offers George Washington; Davidson
McGillicuddy, Joe W.T. Woodson 2011 P verbal Marshall
McGillicuddy, John W.T. Woodson 2011 3B/P verbal Marshall
Hoover, Aaron Westfield 2011 P/IF signed James Madison
Tatum, Kevin Woodbridge 2011 2B verbal Cornell

Josh will definitely play D1. Justin Dreschal definitely signed and I think it was a D1 school. So, that is 3 from Hayfield.

...and again, without naming names (although the above postings all do so already), I think it's obvious that Hayfield has the cluster of upper-classmen talent that will be able to lead them to the National District title this year. Although you can never be sure about how things will play out, they clearly have the inside track. I should emphasize that I have no kids that play for Hayfield, so I'm not I'm only an outside observer who has some knowledge about the baseball in that area. If they do so, they will line up against Concorde District #4 seed and have a very good chance to at least take one game in the Regionals. The other National teams will line up against higher seeds in the much stronger Concorde District, and be significant underdogs. That doesn't mean that there can't be a surprise upset somewhere; it's just very unlikely.

I am not a MV expert or even a National dist expert by any means, but I do think that the relatively new coach at MV has done a very good job getting that program on track. They've had a nice run the past couple of seasons and really turned themselves around.

That said, Ive only seen them play once in the past couple of years and that was in the 1st rd of last years NR tournament when they were beaten soundly by a very talented McLean team. I believe their best player was the coaches' son and he has since graduated if Im not mistaken. Judging from that one particular game (which is often dangerous), there just didnt seem to be a vast amount of talent there that would indicate that they'd be competitive against good teams this coming year.

As I said before, from what Ive heard their coach has an excellent reputation and that certainly can go a long way.

quote:

Originally posted by novabball:
Josh will definitely play D1. Justin Dreschal definitely signed and I think it was a D1 school. So, that is 3 from Hayfield.

I hope you are right about Eldridge, or any other player worthy of playing in college, but to assume any player will play in D1 without being signed, sealed and delivered is very premature...IMHO

dblemup, agree in general on your assumption. On this one I am not assuming. Josh will play D1, mark it down.

quote:

Originally posted by novabball:
dblemup, agree in general on your assumption. On this one I am not assuming. Josh will play D1, mark it down.

I'll mark it down when I read on Perfect Game and/or Washington Post...and I will be very happy for Josh if that happens.

Coach Sable has done a great job at MV in the past and while they lost their top 3 players, they'll return 6 starters. Andrew Sable is on the roster at George Mason, and I'm not really sure what happened to Murdock who was their ace and kept them in alot of ballgames. It's hard for me to say that Stuart is going to be in the mix for the district based off their track record and last season's performance. Seniors are great but they still gotta play. Watching MV I don't see any dominant players this year but they'll be solid internally in the distric

Thompson32, thanks much for giving an informed answer to lowchange's question. I think I made more positive mention of Mt Vernon than the other prognosticators have, but I think my predictions nevertheless invite criticism for underrating Mt Vernon. I respect their coach very much. Some had suggested he would leave when Andrew did, but that apparently is not the case and that is good for Mt. Vernon. They did lose their top 3 players and a lot of their pitching. Those 3 were their only 1st team all district players. I don't know as much about their returners as I do those at some of the other schools. Looking back at last year's all district teams, it looks like they had 7 non-seniors make 2nd team all district. Presumably those will all be returning. That would seem to indicate they should be real tough. On the other hand, this forum noted that the national district 1st team was really like a combined 1st and 2nd team because it had multiple kids at many positions. Therefore, 2nd team all district may not mean that much.

It would surprise me if Mt Vernon finished 1st, but it wouldn't be surprising if Coach Sable's team is right up there in the top 3.

mount vernon is going to be a toss up this year. they lost those 3 really talented seniors, but their junior and sophomore class from last year is all over the second team all district list. if those players step up mount vernon is going to be a tough game for everybody, if they struggle its going to be a long season. this is true with edison and stuart as well, if their players who were above average last year grow into great players this year both of those teams are going to compete. i can almost guarantee you that the regular season champ and the tournament champ will be different, there just isnt a weak spot in this district in the top 6 teams

Mike Murdock went to South Carolina, and may or may not play Club ball.

Andrew Sable is, in fact, at GMU.

They lost several other seniors and that was the core of the talent pool for this team. They have several other players (Quigley, for example) who will have to step up in a big, big way if they are to have ANY success this year.

The pitching pool is depleted and Coach Sable, a miracle worker EVERY year, will have to have his best season to make the team competitive for that top three list.

That said, Coach Sable can take a group of 10 or 12 decent athletes who have standard Little League backgrounds, no more, and turn them into a competitive team if they have the right attitude. He will adapt his style to his talent pool and his opponents. Don't forget that he took a rag-tag bunch of Woodlawn Little Leaguers to the World Series a few years back (at the Juniors level). Most people thought they'd not even win District, much less State and Regional Championships. He can coach as well as any coach I have ever known.

So, while all signs would point to a down year based on a lean talent pool, Coach Sable will probably end up winning the District or something.