2021 commit

I think coaches and parent have to consider the two sides to the equation. Academics and Athletics!

It is easy to evaluate the physical statistics of an 8^th grader.  All you have to do is look at them and their parents and in general get some sense of a projection of size.  At a showcase evaluate their pitching, offense, and hitting measurable one can generally get a sense of skill level and make a projection although not as easy.

How do you measure their academic measurable in the 8^th grade?   At schools like UVA, Duke, Vandy, Ivy and Patriot schools, to name a few, both parents and coaches need to consider the academics.  Coaches must be cautious that an 8^th grader progresses academically and can stay on pace to get admitted as a student and not just a baseball player. Keeping the player academically eligible can be challenging as well.

When my 2015 was being recruited, every high academic school requested transcripts and grades before they wasted any time on evaluation at tournaments.  Asked coaches why such a request and they said “why get him her if he can’t stay here”

Nuke83 posted:

I wouldn't think that UVA is changing anything with their academic requirements.

Remember, the entire risk of this falls on the kid.  If the kid has peaked, declines, gets injured, tanks grades, can't pass admissions, gets into trouble, etc., the school isn't on the hook in any way until NLI is offered and signed (November of the kid's senior year).

All this does is put a scarlet letter on the kid with regard to other programs.  In the current baseball recruiting environment, the kid is pretty much off limits to the other schools in that most any school that is anybody will not initiate any contact with the kid.

My prediction is (and has been) that the verbals will continue to get earlier and in greater abundance.  The gentleman's agreement of not recruiting verbals in baseball will go by the wayside and the wild west of commits, decommits, visits after commit, etc, that exists in football and basketball today will become the norm in baseball.

This is only the beginning.

I hope that doesn't mean we'll be getting all those looney twitter announcements, too.

I wouldn't blame Virginia for recruiting the kid.  Most every top program would want that kid to commit to them.  He is one of the very best in his class. Sure things can change, maybe he doesn't get any better.  However, there is also the chance he gets even better than they expect and he becomes an early first round draft pick. Or maybe he just improves at a slower rate and becomes a starting pitcher at UVA.  Virginia is one of the top college programs, this kid is one of the best at his age.  Seems like a pretty good fit to me.  If something changes that fit, so be it.  But the way I see it, UVA beat their competition in this particular case.  This isn't your ordinary situation of a young player committing real early.

Still, I wish these things wouldn't happen.  Wish there were rules against it. However, there is no rule against it, so the top college baseball programs almost have to go out and be the bird that finds the early worm.  

PGSTAFF,

I mean this as an honest question. From your point of view, why should this not happen?

Thanks.

Ted,

I know you asked PGStaff his opinion, and I'm certainly not him, but as the parent of a 2017 class kid, I'll share why I don't like it.

First, simply looking at the "risk" factor, all the risk is on the kid.  Once he commits, contact with other schools pretty much comes to a complete halt.  The opportunity to meet other coaches, make contacts, build relationships, visit other campuses, etc., ends, so if the original commitment falls through, there may be little to fall back on and paving the way to do so will be more difficult as the kid doesn't have a rolodex of solid contacts to reach out to.  Saw this first hand with the change in the Auburn coaching regime.  Several kids were on outside looking in after having given their verbals.  Some found homes at much smaller schools/conferences and almost all landed with less athletic money than they had committed to prior.

Second, the kids simply don't know what they want in a school, coach, environment, major, etc., etc.  A kid that hasn't even gotten a learner's permit is supposed to know what he wants in secondary education?  If so, that's a rare kid.  The further out the commitment occurs from the kid landing on campus, the greater chance of a mismatch.

Finally, the NCAA hasn't caught up with what's going on in the recruiting front.  This is why I believe the landscape will begin to look like other sports.  Case in point, baseball players cannot go on official visits until classes being their senior year.  Most top prospects have verballed long before then.  So they go on one of their five allowable official visits as more of a victory lap to the school in which they've committed, and typically don't use any of the other officials allowed.  In my kid's case, we didn't make any visits to any schools outside of a one-day drive from home.  Although many schools that would have required a flight had high interest, I wasn't going to foot the bill unless it was a HIGH desire on my son's part to attend that school.  So you rule out even visiting some great places and schools and fish in the pond in your neighborhood.  Also, official visits are a reward to kids that have worked hard and have nurtured their talent.  They are robbed to a degree by not being able to take advantage of these visits.  In the other two major sports, you see committed kids taking official visits long after their commitment.

Just a few reasons that I don't like it  All the downside is to the kid and none to the schools.  As PG mentioned, a high draft kid will be a high draft kid, regardless of when he committed, so the schools are going to lose those players anyway.  Kids who don't develop as expected simply won't get their NLI come signing day (or a reduced one). 

A solution to all this could take place in three steps.

• No offers allowed to students prior to first day of classes sophomore school year
• Official visits allowed following completion of freshman school year
• Verbal offer must be accompanied with NLI at time of offer.  This means whatever a school offers on that day, can be binding (if player signs), and the school is on the hook.  This adds significant risk to schools to offer early.

Too much can happen in four years. I'd be VERY surprised if he goes there. I know it's another sport, but a kid committed to USC (football) before entering high school and ended up "decommitting."

Nice post. I think you will see increases in breaking of verbal agreements by players for some of the reasons you listed. I also think the hands off approach from other teams will be less adhered to. I would like to see the whole timeline pushed back some.

I don't think a high profile player should have to spend so much energy on recruiting during high school. That is the thing I like about this verbal with UVA. Unless things change the kid can relax and be a high schooler without worrying or being worried by all the coaches. If things change either way he may have to address it, but unless he is injured, he is in a good spot to play with UVA or go possibly go pro.

Verbal commitments are just that, verbal. I've  seen plenty of players in recent years commit between freshman and sophomore year, only to be told weeks before they were to report, "you may continue your education at our university, but you won't be playing baseball for us".

Remember, many of the schools/coaches continue to court many players at the same position. It's a lot like committing to your first girlfriend and she then tells you to stay faithful, while she courts other "dudes"! 

In the end, the coach either wants a player or he doesn't. 

I know a lot of college coaches that don't like all the extremely early recruiting. However, as long as their competition is doing it, they are almost forced to do it as well.

It really turns into a lot more work when you need to know who the best kids are at 14-15 years old. Especially when you need to stay on top of the outstanding players that show up when they are 16-17 years old.

Maybe the only good thing about it is it gives some smaller DI's an advantage in sewing up some young talent within their own state, before the power out of state programs are on those kids. Still they have to be concerned with keeping them under their wing.

Personally I doubt if the early commitments will ever stop. Even if it would be better for both the recruiters and the recruits. Competition is the driving force

Early recruiting is easy to stop. All it takes is a rule that any contact between the college and the athlete before a certain date will result in the loss of one scholarship for three years. I realize college sports are a business. But if the NCAA is going to broadcast ads every weekend about athletes being students let's give academics some thought. The ad says only 2% will have any pro career at all.

College sports won't crumble if athletes can't be approached until June 1 after their soph year of high school. Let them sign NLI's that fall (junior year). The early recruiting thing is a sore spot for me.  I have a daughter who went through it. Girls physically mature sooner making them quantifiable sooner. Recruiting junior high school girls is very common.

i don't see where kids committing at fourteen is a positive. When my daughter was fourteen she wanted to be a teacher. By the time she verballed during her soph year she said you couldn't pay her enough to be a teacher. She majored in forensic science. She never spent a day in the field. She went to law school. 

So if these are student-athletes with a 2% shot at a pro career how is it in their best interest to commit to a college before they have any idea what direction they prefer for a career?

Add: I recognize all college athletes odds of turning promare not equal. But we're talking about 14yos. Does anyone remember can't miss 90 mph at 14yo Robert Stock?

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...e.asp?P=Robert-Stock

2005 BA Youth Player of the Year

http://www.baseballamerica.com...#kKQLxIYW03GAGese.97

Not sure Robert Stock is an example of failure with early signing.

When he should have been a HS senior he was a starter as a freshman at Southern Cal.  Question was he a better pitcher or position player.  He was drafted in the second round.

Now maybe he did receive a lot of hype when he was younger.  He didn't make it big in professional baseball.  Still he was what colleges look for in a young player.  He wouldn't have been a mistake of early recruiting.  He might not have been as successful as they thought he would be, but he produced very well right away when he got to USC.  Those are exactly what college programs are looking for with these early commitments. Kids that will end up on campus, be able to contribute right away, and then get drafted in the 2nd round.  Every college would hope that was the type they recruited and got committed early.

My point is he was as stud of a 14yo as it gets. Yet he still didn't end up a first round pick or make MLB. You can never be sure what the future brings.

Nuke83 posted:

Ted,

I know you asked PGStaff his opinion, and I'm certainly not him, but as the parent of a 2017 class kid, I'll share why I don't like it.

First, simply looking at the "risk" factor, all the risk is on the kid.  Once he commits, contact with other schools pretty much comes to a complete halt.  The opportunity to meet other coaches, make contacts, build relationships, visit other campuses, etc., ends, so if the original commitment falls through, there may be little to fall back on and paving the way to do so will be more difficult as the kid doesn't have a rolodex of solid contacts to reach out to.  Saw this first hand with the change in the Auburn coaching regime.  Several kids were on outside looking in after having given their verbals.  Some found homes at much smaller schools/conferences and almost all landed with less athletic money than they had committed to prior.

Second, the kids simply don't know what they want in a school, coach, environment, major, etc., etc.  A kid that hasn't even gotten a learner's permit is supposed to know what he wants in secondary education?  If so, that's a rare kid.  The further out the commitment occurs from the kid landing on campus, the greater chance of a mismatch.

Finally, the NCAA hasn't caught up with what's going on in the recruiting front.  This is why I believe the landscape will begin to look like other sports.  Case in point, baseball players cannot go on official visits until classes being their senior year.  Most top prospects have verballed long before then.  So they go on one of their five allowable official visits as more of a victory lap to the school in which they've committed, and typically don't use any of the other officials allowed.  In my kid's case, we didn't make any visits to any schools outside of a one-day drive from home.  Although many schools that would have required a flight had high interest, I wasn't going to foot the bill unless it was a HIGH desire on my son's part to attend that school.  So you rule out even visiting some great places and schools and fish in the pond in your neighborhood.  Also, official visits are a reward to kids that have worked hard and have nurtured their talent.  They are robbed to a degree by not being able to take advantage of these visits.  In the other two major sports, you see committed kids taking official visits long after their commitment.

Just a few reasons that I don't like it  All the downside is to the kid and none to the schools.  As PG mentioned, a high draft kid will be a high draft kid, regardless of when he committed, so the schools are going to lose those players anyway.  Kids who don't develop as expected simply won't get their NLI come signing day (or a reduced one). 

A solution to all this could take place in three steps.

• No offers allowed to students prior to first day of classes sophomore school year
• Official visits allowed following completion of freshman school year
• Verbal offer must be accompanied with NLI at time of offer.  This means whatever a school offers on that day, can be binding (if player signs), and the school is on the hook.  This adds significant risk to schools to offer early.

Great suggestions. Especially the third bullett.  I've seen several kids "decommitted "  by the school in the late weeks just prior to signing.   All the risk is on the kid in this system as it stands today.     if an NLI came at the time of the offer then it would stop most of this early craziness.   

Bottom line is - it is very hard to fix stupid. At some point the risk isn't worth the reward, apparently we haven't hit that point yet. maybe some day we will, in the mean time there will players that suffer from poor choices...and that is the way it is.

My guesses regarding this situation are as follows:

He will honor his commitment to UVA and vice versa unless he's drafted very highly and signs.

He's not done growing by looking at his parents and will end up between 6'4" and 6'6". I don't know if that will correlate to more velo. 

The kid will have no problem academically qualifying for UVA with or w/o baseball. 

Interesting (but long) read here on a lacrosse player who committed very early to Maryland and then de-committed.  Take out the word "lacrosse" and insert "baseball" throughout article and it is the same issues, but with a twist.  Would love to read a story like this about a baseball player.  It seems so much more a taboo in baseball, with back stories never shared or publicized.  Hard to fault a kid de-committing for these reasons:

http://uslaxmagazine.com/high_..._zappala_walked_away

Just saw this on PBR and thought it fits in well with the discussion.

http://www.prepbaseballreport....In-A-Rush-2189067453

My 2022 is ready To verbal.  He's seen how much work his 2017 brother had to do. 

College Baseball is headed in the same direction as football and basketball. Middle school rankings and middle school recruiting....

nxt lvl posted:

College Baseball is headed in the same direction as football and basketball. Middle school rankings and middle school recruiting....

So some HGH may help?