#39.... Interesting fact

Wow, .390 sounds high. I would have never guessed there was that large of a discrepancy.

.390 sounds VERY high. Where did this "fact" come from?

Also, very few MLB games have the #3 hitter getting a 5th AB. If so, there are probably 5-7 runs scored so, of course, the winning percentage would be lower.

Probably sounds close. Consider the various different offspeed pitches. I would guess that offspeeds outnumber fastballs throughout the course of a game- but just a guess. Let's say they were even and average the 2 averages. Comes out to .287. That is close enough to be believable for me.

Chinny,

I find that .390 hard to believe. Is that documented somewhere?

Don’t know the answer for sure, but think the MLB average hitter is between .250 and .260. maybe a bit higher, but not much.

It’s obvious that the b ave would be higher against fastballs. However there are many reasons for that. One explanation is that in the prime hitting counts (2-0) (3-1) etc. fastballs are thrown for the most part. For most pitchers the fastball is their strike pitch. Most hitters look for fastballs to hit.

I think if MLB hitters “averaged” .390 against fastballs it would mean the very best hitters are hitting much higher than that against fastballs.

Then there are many pitchers that are predominantly fastball pitchers. Not many of those guys throw fastballs straight. In fact, some of the best rely on sinking, running or cutting fastballs and they can locate, hardly anyone will hit .390 off of them let alone have that be the average.

In this age of statistics for most everything, it’s still the high velocity fastball pitchers who are going in the early rounds and getting the big money. No matter what the statistics say, the fastball is still the most important pitch and the pitch used the most. And of course there are several types of fastballs used by various pitchers.

However, I do believe good high school hitters will hit an average high school fastball hard at a very high percentage.

These are just my opinions, have no facts to back them up.

I have the "filthy pitching" book at home where Perry Husband has gone through all of the MLB stats and summarized them. I will dig it out and post something tomorrow on the subject.

The .390 against fastballs is way too high. First assuming that fastballs are thrown at least twice as often as other pitches, that would make the league average for hitting an incredible .322. Actually fastballs are probably thrown a greater percentage than that even. The ML hitters have not hit even .287 as a group since the early 1930's. During the great hitting steroid era, the ML averages was in the mid .270's. But here is the definite proof .390 is not right:

In 2010, according to Inside Edge on the ESPN site Pujols hit .364 against fastballs, Holliday hit .329, Hamilton hit .329, Cano hit .319, Votto hit .341, Rodriguez hit .319. A weak hitter like Pedro Feliz, known as a fastball hitter hit .282 versus fastballs. This means that Hamilton and Cano actually hit for HIGHER averages on pitches thrown that were NOT fastballs. The number are there for what each guy hit against sliders, changeups, curves and "other"(knuckleballs?).

The .185 on offspeed pitching is too low. Just go to that page and you can look at any player in the majors.

quote:

Originally posted by Chinnychinchin:
Probably sounds close. Consider the various different offspeed pitches. I would guess that offspeeds outnumber fastballs throughout the course of a game- but just a guess. Let's say they were even and average the 2 averages. Comes out to .287. That is close enough to be believable for me.

Lol...this has gone from "fact" to "probably sounds close."

IMO, it's nowhere close. Fastballs are thrown WAY more than offspeed pitches.

I'll ask again...where did you see or hear this?

Another thing, and remember, this is all in fun Chinny, the writer didn't prove much of a point about the 39th hitter being key for STARTING pitchers because according to Retrosheet even the great Roy Halliday NEVER once threw to 39 hitters in a game in 2010. Starters rarely get to face that many hitters nowadays. Now if you're just talking about pitchers in general facing the 39th opposing hitter, there could be something to it, but to me that is just a cutoff point for .700 win percentages if a team faces 36 or fewer opposing batters in a game.