Accepting and the Clock

I'm not entirely sure what the point of his rant is

@PABaseball posted:

I'm not entirely sure what the point of his rant is

Didn't read like a rant to me, read like advice given from an insider's perspective.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Didn't read like a rant to me, read like advice given from an insider's perspective.

Agree 100%. If someone thinks it’s a rant they are probably the person that needs to read it the most. What it is, I can tell you from experience, is the expression of frustration over seeing kids make bad decisions over and over because they don’t understand the process.

I read it as: It's fine to look around and try and get that "better" off but keep in mind that the offer you got from the school that checks most of your boxes won't be there forever because that school has finite slots and their clock is ticking. And, most importantly, don't lose sight of the fact that it's musical chairs and there's more players available than is needed.

The tweet is from the head coach of Millersville (PA). It’s a very strong D2 program. I’ll bet he deals with players holding out for D1.

@RJM posted:

The tweet is from the head coach of Millersville (PA). It’s a very strong D2 program. I’ll bet he deals with players holding out for D1.

I’m sure he does and that would explain the frustration that was evident in his message.

My 2021 was given a good Juco offer in June of 2020.  It came with a 30-day clock.  What has surprised me the most over the last year, is how people reacted when I told them the offer had that 30-day clock.  I have 2022 parent friends who say things like "I'm glad College X didn't put any clock on my son's offer."  Viewed through one specific lens, I can appreciate their mindset.  But I now look back on that 30-day clock as possibly the greatest thing that happened in my son's recruiting process.  My son - like 99.99% of other recruits - was blinded by the bright lights of D1.  Utterly fixated on it.  Unwavering.  He only targeted Jucos because I demanded a wider net be cast.

The Juco coach - which he starts playing for this coming Monday - wasn't at all trying to pressure my son with that 30-day clock.  He was simply doing what was best for his program.  The guy doesn't want to be anyone's "fall back plan."  If you accepting his offer is you "settling," you're not the type of player he wants in his program.  He told my son to take the 30 days and do whatever he needed to do.  Think about the offer deeply.  Explore any options you feel you should.  Ask any questions you haven't already asked, but other than that, you won't hear from me.  If you don't accept the offer, zero hard feelings.  Best of luck to you and I will continue filling my class.

My son knew it was a good offer and a good fit for him, so he spent roughly the next 2 weeks or so continuing to play with his travel team.  Those 2 weeks were his best stretch of the summer performance-wise and he got video of all of it.  He kept in close contact with the D1 schools that had shown real interest in him.  After 2 weeks or so, he made tough calls to his top 2 D1 targets.  They couldn't/weren't ready to offer him at that point.  After those 2 calls, he called the Juco coach and accepted.  And thank God he did.  Because he wasn't going to be loved at those D1s; just liked.  Both programs continue to follow him and he may well end up at one of them post-Juco ball.

For me, any kid that needs more than about 2 months to decide, doesn't really need any time at all.  Saying you can't/won't commit in less than 2 months means you're not interested.  MAYBE 0.01% of kids actually use the time to think deeply about right fit and all that.  The rest are clearly out there trying to find a "hotter" girl to go to the dance with.  But few think about the message it sends to the first girl who was willing, but was told to hold on.

@adbono posted:

I’m sure he does and that would explain the frustration that was evident in his message.

I coached 16u (the kids were all fifteen) when my son was playing. We played a 16u tournament sponsored by one of the colleges in the same league. My son was playing high school ball for one of the coach’s former All Americans. We had an interesting chat in the stands. He wanted to know if I had any players I felt had D1 potential but were likely to be overlooked due to size or missing a metric D1s would be looking for.

My top guy for him to watch was a 5’9” kid I felt was done growing who could play anywhere from catcher to short to center. The kid had speed and power.

Unfortunately, the kid started dabbling in drugs soph year and got in trouble. He didn’t play high school ball. He only played one more year of 16u the following summer.

I actually came here to post this. Could have gone in the white vs red wine thread. The answer to the question posed there is in this twitter post. Whether the offer stays good or goes bad depends so much on the timeline of the college because in the end, the have a job to do—fill their roster with the best available talent.

As a parent of a player I'd prefer a deadline for an offer, and I suspect the coach would end up feeling more in control of the process too.  My son got an offer with no deadline and there was always this feeling that it might be gone tomorrow.  It felt like he was given a lot of love by the coach, but at the same time it gave a sort of "easy come, easy go" feeling, i.e. the opposite of love.  He also got an offer with a 1 week deadline (with a very good explanation as to why the deadline mattered), and son knew exactly what his situation was and the coach knew when he had to move on.

@adbono posted:

Agree 100%. If someone thinks it’s a rant they are probably the person that needs to read it the most. What it is, I can tell you from experience, is the expression of frustration over seeing kids make bad decisions over and over because they don’t understand the process.

I'm definitely not the person who needs to read it the most. I have one currently at a P5 and another who committed two weeks ago.

I understand what he's saying, I don't understand why he's saying it. All of this should be made obvious by him when he puts these offers out.

Translation: I'm a strong D2, keep chasing that low level D1 offer, I'm going to keep recruiting.

@PABaseball posted:

I'm definitely not the person who needs to read it the most. I have one currently at a P5 and another who committed two weeks ago.

I understand what he's saying, I don't understand why he's saying it. All of this should be made obvious by him when he puts these offers out.

Translation: I'm a strong D2, keep chasing that low level D1 offer, I'm going to keep recruiting.

  Okay, good for you. What P5 program is your son at?
  It’s easy to understand why he is saying what he said. He is tired of seeing kids make bad decisions. So am I. The marketplace tells kids where they belong but very few accept it if it isn’t the message they want to hear.

@adbono posted:

  Okay, good for you. What P5 program is your son at?
  It’s easy to understand why he is saying what he said. He is tired of seeing kids make bad decisions. So am I. The marketplace tells kids where they belong but very few accept it if it isn’t the message they want to hear.

I see it. I know a lot of 2022s who want to play college baseball and think they are going to play college baseball but who don't have a solid offer...and NLI day is 100 days away. Many of them are still of the mindset of D1 only. Reality hasn't set in for them yet.

@Francis7 posted:

I see it. I know a lot of 2022s who want to play college baseball and think they are going to play college baseball but who don't have a solid offer...and NLI day is 100 days away. Many of them are still of the mindset of D1 only. Reality hasn't set in for them yet.

That’s all true. I notice that you don’t want to tell me what P5 school your son plays for. Why is that?

My bad. Inappropriate response to you Francis. Sorry!

My son had four offers from D1s that he was serious about, along with several jucos and D2s. We basically ruled out the jucos because he had a significant amount of college credit coming in from high school. But he and I spent summer and late fall heading into senior year visiting his top choices one last time. He went to practices, spent the night with players, toured the campuses, went to classes and visited with professors. At that point, he knew what he was looking for, knew basically what each school had to offer and was just doing his last gut check before committing. I was ready to be done, the coaches were ready, he wasn't.

The last visit was with a dream school that hadn't yet offered, but made it clear they likely would if he attended one last camp.

He was very clear with each school about who he was visiting and when and when he planned to make a decision. I was really shocked by how much each school argued against the other schools rather than for their own. One coach told him that if he was serious about their school, he wouldn't need to visit any of the others. There might have been some truth to that.

It's hard process on all sides, but the coaches are going through it multiple times every year. Players and parents, hopefully, go through it once per kid. Thats why this site is so important — it lets those of us who don't know anything learn from the experiences of those who do.

@PABaseball posted:

I'm definitely not the person who needs to read it the most. I have one currently at a P5 and another who committed two weeks ago.

I understand what he's saying, I don't understand why he's saying it. All of this should be made obvious by him when he puts these offers out.

Translation: I'm a strong D2, keep chasing that low level D1 offer, I'm going to keep recruiting.

I think you are mostly spot on here, he is a strong program and recruiter, to the best of my knowledge he isn't an over recruiter but to a large degree that is in the eye of the beholder...35 -37 isn't a small number but whatever. For the most part he is 4 year guy and not overly involved in the D1 dropdowns. One of his biggest competitors is West Chester who historically takes many dropdowns, I think last year alone was 10 or 11.

I do believe he has a number and stops at it, i actually am almost 100% he is being completely truthful there.

My guess is he has a kid or 2 that he really wants, his roster is filling and he doesn't have exactly what he is looking for, i could be totally wrong but that would be my guess.

@Iowamom23 posted:

My son had four offers from D1s that he was serious about, along with several jucos and D2s. We basically ruled out the jucos because he had a significant amount of college credit coming in from high school. But he and I spent summer and late fall heading into senior year visiting his top choices one last time. He went to practices, spent the night with players, toured the campuses, went to classes and visited with professors. At that point, he knew what he was looking for, knew basically what each school had to offer and was just doing his last gut check before committing. I was ready to be done, the coaches were ready, he wasn't.

The last visit was with a dream school that hadn't yet offered, but made it clear they likely would if he attended one last camp.

He was very clear with each school about who he was visiting and when and when he planned to make a decision. I was really shocked by how much each school argued against the other schools rather than for their own. One coach told him that if he was serious about their school, he wouldn't need to visit any of the others. There might have been some truth to that.

It's hard process on all sides, but the coaches are going through it multiple times every year. Players and parents, hopefully, go through it once per kid. Thats why this site is so important — it lets those of us who don't know anything learn from the experiences of those who do.

Nobody could ever fault a decision that was made after doing that much diligence. But 95% of the kids I have seen go thru the process only do a fraction of what you described - and furthermore they don’t recognize a good offer when it’s presented to them because their expectations are so unrealistic.

@adbono posted:

My bad. Inappropriate response to you Francis. Sorry!

No worries!

@adbono posted:

  Okay, good for you. What P5 program is your son at?
  It’s easy to understand why he is saying what he said. He is tired of seeing kids make bad decisions. So am I. The marketplace tells kids where they belong but very few accept it if it isn’t the message they want to hear.

I had a kid play for me through 16u. Then he played with my son on a 17u team. I knew the kid’s strengths and weaknesses well. He got 1 major conference offer and several ranked D2 offers. He took the dream school. He never saw the field.

The problem was the kid and dad were too caught up in he was the top slugger in his high school conference. What the blinders didn’t expose to them was he couldn’t get any more bulked up. He had maxed his body. My son was suspicious along with one of his high school teammates PEDs got him where he was in high school. He developed noticeable symptoms. Also, he wasn’t hitting any bombs off top pitchers.

After committing the kid started going to MLB camps to enhance his nonexistent draft status. The pros saw what I saw.

I’ve mentioned in the past girls get offered sooner since they physically mature sooner. Girls start playing 18u Gold (softball) as soon as they are capable. There are fourteen year olds in 18u Gold.  

My daughter started getting offers the summer after freshman year. The coaches didn’t put a time table on the offers. But they warned if she waited until the next summer she would be competing against more prospects and half the class was already committed.

I advised my daughter if one school was the top school in her major and she wasn’t worried about playing time accept. She had grossly over performed (15-17, all laser shots) in a tournament the school attended. This was one of those “here to scout player A on the other team and discovered player B” situations.

My daughter accepted in March. She was a fourth outfielder for four years. But she got on the field enough to enjoy the experience. She wasn’t leaving the school.

@RJM posted:

I had a kid play for me through 16u. Then he played with my son on a 17u team. I knew the kid’s strengths and weaknesses well. He got 1 major conference offer and several ranked D2 offers. He took the dream school. He never saw the field.

The problem was the kid and dad were too caught up in he was the top slugger in his high school conference. What the blinders didn’t expose to them was he couldn’t get any more bulked up. He had maxed his body. My son was suspicious along with one of his high school teammates PEDs got him where he was in high school. He developed noticeable symptoms. Also, he wasn’t hitting any bombs off top pitchers.

After verbally the kid started going to MLB camps to enhance his nonexistent draft status. The pros saw what I saw.

I think most guys like you and me have a story like that. During 14U & 15U in North Texas there was a kid that was widely recognized as the best position player in this region. Guest played for us when we could get him and at that age was the best hitter I had seen. Had all the PG accolades yada, yada, yada. He was an early D1 commit. But he never got any bigger, any stronger, or any better and other players passed him by in 16U & 17U seasons. His D1 school honored their commitment but it was obvious to baseball guys that he wasn’t good enough to play there. They redshirted him for a year and then sent him off to a good Texas JuCo, and he wasn’t good enough to get on the field there either. He is out of baseball now. The saddest part of the story (to me) is that, if his expectations would have been realistic & people would have been honest with him about his abilities & he would have accepted the truth, he could have been a really good D3 player.

I have a habit of noticing kids who are the same grad year and who play the same position as my son.  (I suspect that a lot of other fathers do the same thing, as a gauge on where their kid falls on the talent and skills scale.)  And, I am very objective.  What do I see?  In my state, I see a lot of kids in his grad year and position who are very talented.  Give me some time and an internet connection and I can probably come up with 40 kids at his position and his grad year who are more than capable of playing college ball at some level.  But, that’s just our state.  Bring it out to the nation level and that projects to around, give or take, may close to 2,000 kids at his position and grad year who are really good players.  Granted, some are sincerely and truly elite – in a class my themselves.  But, the others aren’t bad and, again, are probably capable of playing college ball, somewhere, if they wanted to do it.  The point here is that the competition is steep for the non-super-elite player.  If someone makes you an offer, and really wants you, and the school and program check your important boxes, then don’t think long because you will think wrong.  And, this doesn’t even factor in the COVID and extra eligibility thing.

What I’m about to say doesn’t apply to RCs and coaches of P5 or top D1 mid majors - but it does apply to college coaches at every other level. I understand the frustration of all those coaches when it comes to the recruiting process. They deal with so many players & parents that are delusional about the level of college ball where they belong - if they belong at any level at all. I will relate a story that happened to me this last weekend as an example.  I’m working with some HS and college pitchers this summer. A kid that has worked with me for over 3 years brought one of his travel ball teammates to a bullpen session a couple weeks ago and I saw potential in this kid. So I went to see him pitch in a game along with a JuCo HC that’s a good friend. The coach of this travel ball team happened to be a guy that played summer ball with my middle son years ago so I know and like him. Because of that me and my friend made a point to talk with him before the game started. His Asst. Coach saw this as an opportunity to come over and push some of his other players on us as prospects. After 4 innings we knew the kids he was pushing were not prospects for JuCo Region 5. I figured that when we showed no interest that would be the end of it. But this Asst. gave our cell numbers to the kid and his dad and all 3 of them started blowing up our phones. As a favor to the coach I know I agreed to take one more look.  Keep in mind I had seen a lot of video already. On Saturday the kid was exactly what I had seen before- low 80s FB that he didn’t command very well, a get me over slider, and an okay change up. He had mechanical flaws in his delivery that created command problems on everything except his slider. He is a tall, skinny kid that has the frame to get bigger and stronger and that is the best thing he has going for him. In this area of the country he fits the description of a D3 project that might become a decent D3 player. Soon as the game was over Asst. Coach, player & dad all blowing up my phone wanting feedback - so I gave it to them, very constructively thank you very much. Crickets. Not thank you or appreciate you coming out. Nothing. Why? They didn’t like the message. Dad has apparently spent a lot of money on little Johnny and his instructor has lied to him about his ability in order to keep the lesson money coming in. Now dad & player don’t have proper perspective and expectations are very unrealistic. This is a common experience for the majority of kids playing travel ball and my experience was typical of college coaches that deal with these kids/parents. I go out of my way to do the kid a favor because I know his coach and he is ungrateful b/c he doesn’t like the message. I’m sure that he won’t heed my advice. Coaches know where kids fit but kids and parents won’t listen and having that dance over and over will frustrate any sane person.

More on the delusional thing: I see a lot of 22s reclassified now, recently, to 23s because they are not getting the offers they expect as 22s.

@adbono posted:

What I’m about to say doesn’t apply to RCs and coaches of P5 or top D1 mid majors - but it does apply to college coaches at every other level. I understand the frustration of all those coaches when it comes to the recruiting process. They deal with so many players & parents that are delusional about the level of college ball where they belong - if they belong at any level at all. I will relate a story that happened to me this last weekend as an example.  I’m working with some HS and college pitchers this summer. A kid that has worked with me for over 3 years brought one of his travel ball teammates to a bullpen session a couple weeks ago and I saw potential in this kid. So I went to see him pitch in a game along with a JuCo HC that’s a good friend. The coach of this travel ball team happened to be a guy that played summer ball with my middle son years ago so I know and like him. Because of that me and my friend made a point to talk with him before the game started. His Asst. Coach saw this as an opportunity to come over and push some of his other players on us as prospects. After 4 innings we knew the kids he was pushing were not prospects for JuCo Region 5. I figured that when we showed no interest that would be the end of it. But this Asst. gave our cell numbers to the kid and his dad and all 3 of them started blowing up our phones. As a favor to the coach I know I agreed to take one more look.  Keep in mind I had seen a lot of video already. On Saturday the kid was exactly what I had seen before- low 80s FB that he didn’t command very well, a get me over slider, and an okay change up. He had mechanical flaws in his delivery that created command problems on everything except his slider. He is a tall, skinny kid that has the frame to get bigger and stronger and that is the best thing he has going for him. In this area of the country he fits the description of a D3 project that might become a decent D3 player. Soon as the game was over Asst. Coach, player & dad all blowing up my phone wanting feedback - so I gave it to them, very constructively thank you very much. Crickets. Not thank you or appreciate you coming out. Nothing. Why? They didn’t like the message. Dad has apparently spent a lot of money on little Johnny and his instructor has lied to him about his ability in order to keep the lesson money coming in. Now dad & player don’t have proper perspective and expectations are very unrealistic. This is a common experience for the majority of kids playing travel ball and my experience was typical of college coaches that deal with these kids/parents. I go out of my way to do the kid a favor because I know his coach and he is ungrateful b/c he doesn’t like the message. I’m sure that he won’t heed my advice. Coaches know where kids fit but kids and parents won’t listen and having that dance over and over will frustrate any sane person.

Glad we were in Arizona this weekend.............  Hope all is well.

@russinfortworth posted:

Glad we were in Arizona this weekend.............  Hope all is well.

Ha! Hope it went well. How is your son?

Made bracket.  Burnt most of pitching getting there.  Lost to Show twice after having leads late in both games.  We do well with what we have. 

Imagine a college baseball world where 90%+ of players and parents understood a kid's true abilities and fished in the right ponds from the get go.  How great would that be?  Its so sad that we seemingly stand a better chance at locating unicorns than we do a world like that.  I think its the product of a LOT of things, but it does make me think back to a phrase I've heard from a few coaches over the years.  It's often used when a tryout is in play.  A selection of some and not others.  It goes something like "We're human and we make mistakes.  If you weren't chosen, get back to work and come back and prove us wrong."

I've usually thought of that sort of thing as virtuous advice.  Encourage kids to get back to work but harder and go fight for what you want, right?  But with this thread, it's got me wondering if its not so virtuous.  I'm not sure.  You want kids to go back to work and  work harder, but I think the "I'm not a quitter and I'm going to prove them wrong" helps perpetuate their resolve to get D1 offers (or whatever the goal is).   Something to chew on.

I agree that many things contribute to the problem and most of them have to do with the monetization of a boys dream. Travel ball orgs are more about making money than making kids better players. Same is true for lots of private instructors. Scouting services are ALL about making money and have brainwashed most of the amateur baseball playing public into believing that their showcases and events are a necessity to advance in the game. Parents equate spending money on training and travel to guarantees of college opportunities, and they are encouraged to think that way by travel ball orgs and scouting services. All of these things perpetuate players and parents having the “D1 or bust” mentality” when their talent level says they should be looking elsewhere.

This happens when there's 10 million kids playing baseball and trying to get recruited, yet they play mostly within 20 miles of home and have seen hundreds of ball players they can compare themselves to.  How can they possibly know how good they are compared to kids from all around the country?

Want to emphasize that it's not always a step down to D2 or D3. Many realize it. But usually those who don't are the ones with a D1 or bust attitude.

Most kids that advance to college baseball end up playing within a 6 hour drive from home. And the overwhelmingly majority are not gonna play top 50 D1 baseball. What difference does it make how they compare to kids from all around the country? That’s only relevant to the elite players (top 5% -10%).

s

A good point, @adbono.  Check this out.  We're in Omaha.  The travel org my 2021 played for last summer puts a lot of time and money into having their kids compete against competition across a wide swath of the country.  PG and PBR events and as far away as Florida.  On this map are the 6 cities in red that they took their top 2022 team to this summer.  The large green circle covers all the college programs that 98% of their 2021s are committed to.  Believe it or not, there are D1s, D2s, D3s, NAIAs and JUCOs within that green circle.  You'll see the one red dot (KC) within the green that actually makes sense.  So tourneys in KC make sense to a lot of the programs these kids end up getting offers from and playing for.  In my mind, their money would be far better spent playing 6+ times in KC or anywhere within the green.  But that's not what sells.  Players and parents want to believe that flying out to Atlanta, Fort Meyers and the like could result in offers outside that green circle.  Never mind that only about 2% or so of kids from the org have ever committed outside of the green.

Great thread -

Single most difficult thing to do in sports is take a round bat and round ball and hit it square - heard that somewhere before....

Second most difficult thing to do in sports is to have an arsenal of pitches that are thrown into an area approximately 24X18 inches at varying speeds between 75-95 with movement that confuses the hitter but is obvious to the umpire that is was inside the designated area...

Single most difficult thing to do in evaluating/scouting/selecting/coaching athletes is to figure who can do 1 of the 2 things above at a rate that allows you to win a lot more games than you lose...

"You think you do, but you don't" - Billy Beane

@DanJ posted:

s

A good point, @adbono.  Check this out.  We're in Omaha.  The travel org my 2021 played for last summer puts a lot of time and money into having their kids compete against competition across a wide swath of the country.  PG and PBR events and as far away as Florida.  On this map are the 6 cities in red that they took their top 2022 team to this summer.  The large green circle covers all the college programs that 98% of their 2021s are committed to.  Believe it or not, there are D1s, D2s, D3s, NAIAs and JUCOs within that green circle.  You'll see the one red dot (KC) within the green that actually makes sense.  So tourneys in KC make sense to a lot of the programs these kids end up getting offers from and playing for.  In my mind, their money would be far better spent playing 6+ times in KC or anywhere within the green.  But that's not what sells.  Players and parents want to believe that flying out to Atlanta, Fort Meyers and the like could result in offers outside that green circle.  Never mind that only about 2% or so of kids from the org have ever committed outside of the green.

Boom! Graphics are a beautiful thing!

Danj, are you saying the coaches in that green bubble only recruit kids who live in that green bubble?  I can't imagine they'd be very good programs if that were the case.

No, he's saying that 98% of kids in his son's travel program commit to colleges within the green bubble, even though they play in travel tournaments designated by the red circles.  That's true of most kids, I think, certainly true of my son's organization.

@Smitty28 No, I am not saying those coaches only recruit from with that green bubble.  But yes, the vast majority of their rosters are filled with kids from within it. 

First off, "good" is relative and subjective.  Do you consider Nebraska (Lincoln) any good?  The won the Big 10 this year for whatever that's worth to you.  24 kids of the 38 on their roster come from within that green bubble. 9 of their 14 2021 commits came from within that green bubble.  How about Iowa Western CC?  Perennial top 20 D1 JUCO that is 15 minutes from here.  28 of the 47 on their roster came from inside that bubble.  D2 powerhouse Central Missouri in that green as well.  Do programs within that green bubble recruit from outside of it?  Absolutely, but the bulk of their rosters are from within it.  Those are just 3 examples.  So it MAY be the case that the talent in our area is somewhat better than you'd anticipate?  I don't know.  But all of this is beside my point.  My point is that given that 98% of the kids in our area end up playing for programs within a 4-hour drive give or take, traveling to play in front of coaches in Atlanta and Florida produces juice that arguably isn't worth the squeeze.  For 1-2% of the players around here, yes, there is some value traveling far and spending lots of money.