Another strategy question

The base runner made the right decision.

We just had a long discussion on this very situation in the thread called "Quiz-Base Running."

If you go by probability of scoring in various situations, the base runner at third in a first and third situation is well advised to break hard for home on a come backer to the mound regardless of the number of outs.

This is probably the worst strategy ever, assuming the defense is semi-competent

Thanks for your answers, Iron Horse and SwampBoy.

I'm not understanding this, I guess.  Why is a 60 ft throw that a pitcher makes all the time (the throw home) a better scenario for the runner to break for home? Woudn't staying put and letting the play develop, a play where the pitcher makes a routine play to first, or makes a more difficult throw to second to try to start a double play. I guess I don't assume the double play is likely.  But, probability wise, you're suggesting it's more likely?  I didn't know that. 

I'll check out the other thread.  Don't mean to start a new one if it's been thoroughly discussed earlier.

I agree with the strategy basically because their's going to be at least out #2 (assuming the pitcher doesn't screw up making an out play) there's either going to be a runner in scoring position on 3rd or 2nd.  A single will drive in a runner from 2nd with 2 outs.  So, putting pressure on the pitcher to make a decision and then execute a good fielding  play under that pressure (especially if it's a high slow chopper).    And if you've got a good base runners you could very well wind up with two base runners in scoring position during a rundown between 3rd and home.

Truman, truth be told, that's exactly what happened!  runner was out at home but the rundown he ended up in allowed the other two runners to advance to third and second, respectively.  We didn't end up scoring, but now I have seen the light!!  The Quiz Base Running thread was awesome.

I meant the waiting until the P threw to first and then running was bad. Either break when you read it down or don't go at all. It'll be a 1-3-2 double play every time.