quote:
Originally posted by Steve:
Take any kid at five or six year old and throw them a ball or ask them to throw to each other. Within 5 minutes you can separate the high potential from the average.
I defy anyone to predict - with any credible percentage of accuracy - who will be a ball player in HS by looking at them at 5 or 6YO. That is just laughable.
Predicting their later performance based on watching them at 9/10YO is just as laughable. I look back at the 14 kids who were allstars with my son at 10YO. About 12 of these kids were touted as fantastic, would be the stars in HS, heads & shoulders above the rest, bound to play in college, etc. These opinions were expressed by many, not just their individual dads. And by some ex-pros, even.
Of those 12 allstars who were "can't miss", half were washed out by HS. Either they didn't make the HS cut, or the game took them out before they even reached HS.
Lost track of one of them.
Three are highly unlikely to have much impact at their HS and appear unlikely to be starters during their four years. One is mediocre.
One is likely to be a starting pitcher as a junior.
None of the aforementioned players has played for any of the top tier select teams.
Of the two who were not considered as good as the rest, I have lost track of one as they moved years ago. The other plays for one of the top select teams in Texas (nationally known club) and has gone higher on his HS team than the rest.
So, how well did the predictions turn out?
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It takes some of both.
IAGG, you can add Nellie Fox to that list. Not considered gifted, not given much of any chance to be successful. But a HOF'er in the end.