Brent Rooker, Talent, Recruiting, and the MLB Draft

I played college summer ball one summer with the leading D1 hitter in the nation. He wasn't drafted junior or senior year. He didn't have power or blazing speed. He played 1B.

Rooker can mash and he projects as a 30-40 HR guy in the pros.  I assumed he would be a top 10 pick.  I agree with 3and2 that his bat speed stands out.  It seems like he hits every ball on the screws 

RJM posted:

I played college summer ball one summer with the leading D1 hitter in the nation. He wasn't drafted junior or senior year. He didn't have power or blazing speed. He played 1B.

Understood.  But Rooker has power.  And is now being projected to be drafted in Round 2 or 3, some are saying he might go at the end of the 1st Round

I suppose my question is: how did so many miss on this kid early on?  He was only ranked in the Top 1000 by Perfect Game.  Classsic late bloomer type?  He had a 4.1 GPA and 30 on his ACT too.

And are a bunch of MLB teams about to miss on him again?

We hear "the bat will play" but is that really true?

https://www.perfectgame.org/Pl...ofile.aspx?ID=261849

Only other scholarship offer he had was from Memphis coming out of high school.  A lot of programs missed on this kid

What a great story! This is one of many reasons why baseball is so cool. As for teams missing him out of HS, who knows. Not much data there to tell us anything.

As for him going later in draft (maybe 2-3 round), he is already 22 so tough to project a higher ceiling. Limited defensively it seems to 1B.

Pulling for this kid for sure though!

I could see him going in the first round.  He has really stepped it up this year, but was a good hitter last year too.  He did get drafted last year... 38th round by the Twins.  He played in the Cape Cod League and did well there.  But this spring he has taken it to another level all together.  And he isn't hitting against sub par pitching. Possibly he has become the best college hitter in this draft class.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

Strasburg went undrafted as a HS senior with a 91mph fastball.  

hsbaseball101 posted:

Strasburg went undrafted as a HS senior with a 91mph fastball.  

Back then he was called Slothburg. He was lazy, overweight and out of shape. A friend's son**roomed with him in AAA. He said at that point Strasburg had his head on as straight as a veteran.

** a career AAA player who was assigned to several top prospects as a roommate.

3and2Fastball posted:

I find Brent Rooker and his story going into the MLB Draft fascinating.   Here's a kid who is 6'4" 200, hitting .420 with a .520 OBP and leading D1 in HR's, draft eligible and looking like he's not gonna get taken in Round One.   Maybe that'll change.   

Why?  He is a right hand hitter, he's not that fast.   He only plays 1B/LF and neither of them at an elite level.  Apparently scouts question his ability to recognize offspeed pitches.  

The kid...flat...out...rakes.  His bat speed in games looks fantastic.  Again I find it fascinating.  Not a super high priority recruit (I mean, it is relative, he's playing in the SEC but still), went undrafted last year after hitting .320 so came back for another year.  Relative to forecasting college success, at the very least, it would appear a ton of people missed on him

It would not surprise me in the slightest if Rooker ends up having a much better pro career than a bunch of players that will be taken in the Top 15 picks.  Am I crazy to hope the Brewers take him at #9 overall?

What am I missing here?

An important thing in these days with high round picks is floor. The bar for a first baseman/dh is very high.

Yes there is a chance he becomes paul goldschmidt (90th+ percentile outcome) but he could also bust. 

Now a bust is not super likely but there is a good chance that he is "only" like a league average mlb hitter. Now mlb average hitter is incredibly good but a 1b (or very bad lf) who hits league average is a 1 WAR player and that is well below average.

When you draft a guy like lindor he can be a 90 ops+ hitter and still be a 3 war player whike rooker likely needs to be a 115 ops+ guy to be a 2 win player.That increases his floor a lot.

Basically if you draft a 1b that high you are betting on like a 95th percentile outcome. It has worked before (adrian Gonzalez) but more likely it ends like justin smoak who is not a terrible hitter but never fulfilled the promise after raking in college and being drafted high.

Also rooker is already 22 soon turning 23 which means he likely is like 25 in his mlb debut if he makes it.

I like polished college bats and would take a chance signing him cheap in the second round but a top30 pick on a 23 year old likely 1b/dh is risky.

He likely will have a better career than some guys ahead of him but overall the risk to reward profile is not as appealing as other guys. His flame out in AA ball risk is very low but his being ok but not hitting enough to compensate for his defense risk is a little higher.

Good pick but not in round 1.

Also eric longenhagen said that college doesnt necessarily have the best defensive athletes.

College first basemen and even corner of often project more as DHs while college 3b often become 1b in mlb and the best shortstop and centerfield athletes often don't make it to college at all because they are drafted highly.

There are simply not many success stories of college 1bs succeeding in the majors and even college 3b are not very likely to stay there in the majors.

It can work you you are basically betting that 1-2 tools land in the very highest percentile of outcome and if they don't there is not much to fall back on.

Dominik85 posted:

3and2Fastball posted:

I find Brent Rooker and his story going into the MLB Draft fascinating.   Here's a kid who is 6'4" 200, hitting .420 with a .520 OBP and leading D1 in HR's, draft eligible and looking like he's not gonna get taken in Round One.   Maybe that'll change.   

Why?  He is a right hand hitter, he's not that fast.   He only plays 1B/LF and neither of them at an elite level.  Apparently scouts question his ability to recognize offspeed pitches.  

The kid...flat...out...rakes.  His bat speed in games looks fantastic.  Again I find it fascinating.  Not a super high priority recruit (I mean, it is relative, he's playing in the SEC but still), went undrafted last year after hitting .320 so came back for another year.  Relative to forecasting college success, at the very least, it would appear a ton of people missed on him

It would not surprise me in the slightest if Rooker ends up having a much better pro career than a bunch of players that will be taken in the Top 15 picks.  Am I crazy to hope the Brewers take him at #9 overall?

What am I missing here?

An important thing in these days with high round picks is floor. The bar for a first baseman/dh is very high.

Yes there is a chance he becomes paul goldschmidt (90th+ percentile outcome) but he could also bust. 

Now a bust is not super likely but there is a good chance that he is "only" like a league average mlb hitter. Now mlb average hitter is incredibly good but a 1b (or very bad lf) who hits league average is a 1 WAR player and that is well below average.

When you draft a guy like lindor he can be a 90 ops+ hitter and still be a 3 war player whike rooker likely needs to be a 115 ops+ guy to be a 2 win player.That increases his floor a lot.

Basically if you draft a 1b that high you are betting on like a 95th percentile outcome. It has worked before (adrian Gonzalez) but more likely it ends like justin smoak who is not a terrible hitter but never fulfilled the promise after raking in college and being drafted high.

Also rooker is already 22 soon turning 23 which means he likely is like 25 in his mlb debut if he makes it.

I like polished college bats and would take a chance signing him cheap in the second round but a top30 pick on a 23 year old likely 1b/dh is risky.

He likely will have a better career than some guys ahead of him but overall the risk to reward profile is not as appealing as other guys. His flame out in AA ball risk is very low but his being ok but not hitting enough to compensate for his defense risk is a little higher.

Good pick but not in round 1.

Good points but according to his PG profile Rook is 21.5, which, if true, puts him about where most college juniors are age wise. 

I'm not sure what Rooker's speed is in the timed 60, but he is leading the SEC in stolen bases. That would lead me to believe he has above average speed. Am I wrong here?

younggun posted:

I'm not sure what Rooker's speed is in the timed 60, but he is leading the SEC in stolen bases. That would lead me to believe he has above average speed. Am I wrong here?

The only thing I've read is that he ran a 4.6 40 as a senior in high school.   Haven't seen any 60 times posted.   A 1B who can steal bases obviously adds value (think Bagwell/Goldschmidt).  Maybe it isn't flat out speed, maybe it is jumps and Baseball IQ.  Some of his SB totals is because of his .500+ OBP....Either way it is not as if the guy moves like Ortiz or Fielder.

hshuler posted:

Dominik85 posted:

3and2Fastball posted:

I find Brent Rooker and his story going into the MLB Draft fascinating.   Here's a kid who is 6'4" 200, hitting .420 with a .520 OBP and leading D1 in HR's, draft eligible and looking like he's not gonna get taken in Round One.   Maybe that'll change.   

Why?  He is a right hand hitter, he's not that fast.   He only plays 1B/LF and neither of them at an elite level.  Apparently scouts question his ability to recognize offspeed pitches.  

The kid...flat...out...rakes.  His bat speed in games looks fantastic.  Again I find it fascinating.  Not a super high priority recruit (I mean, it is relative, he's playing in the SEC but still), went undrafted last year after hitting .320 so came back for another year.  Relative to forecasting college success, at the very least, it would appear a ton of people missed on him

It would not surprise me in the slightest if Rooker ends up having a much better pro career than a bunch of players that will be taken in the Top 15 picks.  Am I crazy to hope the Brewers take him at #9 overall?

What am I missing here?

An important thing in these days with high round picks is floor. The bar for a first baseman/dh is very high.

Yes there is a chance he becomes paul goldschmidt (90th+ percentile outcome) but he could also bust. 

Now a bust is not super likely but there is a good chance that he is "only" like a league average mlb hitter. Now mlb average hitter is incredibly good but a 1b (or very bad lf) who hits league average is a 1 WAR player and that is well below average.

When you draft a guy like lindor he can be a 90 ops+ hitter and still be a 3 war player whike rooker likely needs to be a 115 ops+ guy to be a 2 win player.That increases his floor a lot.

Basically if you draft a 1b that high you are betting on like a 95th percentile outcome. It has worked before (adrian Gonzalez) but more likely it ends like justin smoak who is not a terrible hitter but never fulfilled the promise after raking in college and being drafted high.

Also rooker is already 22 soon turning 23 which means he likely is like 25 in his mlb debut if he makes it.

I like polished college bats and would take a chance signing him cheap in the second round but a top30 pick on a 23 year old likely 1b/dh is risky.

He likely will have a better career than some guys ahead of him but overall the risk to reward profile is not as appealing as other guys. His flame out in AA ball risk is very low but his being ok but not hitting enough to compensate for his defense risk is a little higher.

Good pick but not in round 1.

Good points but according to his PG profile Rook is 21.5, which, if true, puts him about where most college juniors are age wise. 

This site has him as november 94 birthday.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...e.asp?P=brent-rooker

Is that a different brent rooker?

He also has a bit of swing and miss in his game. Not super high but around 17% is not low for a college and points to about a 25% k rate in pro ball.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/h...ikeouts-is-too-many/

That is not terrible if you hit 30 bombs but it does mean an extra risk.

For comparison adam haseley also hit 14 dongs but only struck out 8%.

He still is an excellent prospect but probably not that kind of blue chip hitter that warrants a top15 pick especially given his age and position.

Still he might be a great sandwich pick or early second rounder.

Dominik85 posted:

hshuler posted:

Dominik85 posted:

3and2Fastball posted:

I find Brent Rooker and his story going into the MLB Draft fascinating.   Here's a kid who is 6'4" 200, hitting .420 with a .520 OBP and leading D1 in HR's, draft eligible and looking like he's not gonna get taken in Round One.   Maybe that'll change.   

Why?  He is a right hand hitter, he's not that fast.   He only plays 1B/LF and neither of them at an elite level.  Apparently scouts question his ability to recognize offspeed pitches.  

The kid...flat...out...rakes.  His bat speed in games looks fantastic.  Again I find it fascinating.  Not a super high priority recruit (I mean, it is relative, he's playing in the SEC but still), went undrafted last year after hitting .320 so came back for another year.  Relative to forecasting college success, at the very least, it would appear a ton of people missed on him

It would not surprise me in the slightest if Rooker ends up having a much better pro career than a bunch of players that will be taken in the Top 15 picks.  Am I crazy to hope the Brewers take him at #9 overall?

What am I missing here?

An important thing in these days with high round picks is floor. The bar for a first baseman/dh is very high.

Yes there is a chance he becomes paul goldschmidt (90th+ percentile outcome) but he could also bust. 

Now a bust is not super likely but there is a good chance that he is "only" like a league average mlb hitter. Now mlb average hitter is incredibly good but a 1b (or very bad lf) who hits league average is a 1 WAR player and that is well below average.

When you draft a guy like lindor he can be a 90 ops+ hitter and still be a 3 war player whike rooker likely needs to be a 115 ops+ guy to be a 2 win player.That increases his floor a lot.

Basically if you draft a 1b that high you are betting on like a 95th percentile outcome. It has worked before (adrian Gonzalez) but more likely it ends like justin smoak who is not a terrible hitter but never fulfilled the promise after raking in college and being drafted high.

Also rooker is already 22 soon turning 23 which means he likely is like 25 in his mlb debut if he makes it.

I like polished college bats and would take a chance signing him cheap in the second round but a top30 pick on a 23 year old likely 1b/dh is risky.

He likely will have a better career than some guys ahead of him but overall the risk to reward profile is not as appealing as other guys. His flame out in AA ball risk is very low but his being ok but not hitting enough to compensate for his defense risk is a little higher.

Good pick but not in round 1.

Good points but according to his PG profile Rook is 21.5, which, if true, puts him about where most college juniors are age wise. 

This site has him as november 94 birthday.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...e.asp?P=brent-rooker

Is that a different brent rooker?

Same one but the 21.5 or 22.5 will make a difference  

https://www.perfectgame.org/Pl...ofile.aspx?ID=261849

I think 22.5 is the correct one other sources also said november 94.

Dominik85 posted:

I think 22.5 is the correct one other sources also said november 94.

I believe that you are correct, sir!

We have Nov 1994 in database.  His profile birthdate lists him a year younger.  That info is entered by the team he played for back then.

Rooker is old for a top draft prospect and was "passed over" last year (not really, he would have been drafted if he wanted to be - look at his JR year stats, for god's sake - but told teams he was going back to school to develop).

He's a very good prospect. Just not an elite one. He doesn't really play a position.

Maybe he's Kyle Schwarber; that's possible. But overall, older college 1bs who mash don't have the best track record in the draft when taken very highly.

I say this as a guy who loves Rooker and thinks the world of his development story.

I could see a team with one or two sandwich picks taking him in the first round.

He doesn't have much leverage and you could sign a solid quick moving bat relatively cheap and then go over slot with the sandwich picks to get a talented high schooler.

I'm watching the Florida-Arkansas game. Rooker came up in conversation. The scouts the announcers talked to said he's a top fifty pick, probably second round. They said Spanberger is rated higher as an SEC hitter. 

RJM posted:

I'm watching the Florida-Arkansas game. Rooker came up in conversation. The scouts the announcers talked to said he's a top fifty pick, probably second round. They said Spanberger is rated higher as an SEC hitter. 

Spanberger is in a world of his own right now. Seven taters in three games this week...and it's not like they're barely leaving the yard. 

RJM posted:

I'm watching the Florida-Arkansas game. Rooker came up in conversation. The scouts the announcers talked to said he's a top fifty pick, probably second round. They said Spanberger is rated higher as an SEC hitter. 

Haven't seem spanberger in any draft boards. He had good stats but a lot of Ks and not many walks, plate discipline doesn't seem to be very good.

But with a strong finish and playoff run he might move up the boards.

hshuler posted:

RJM posted:

I'm watching the Florida-Arkansas game. Rooker came up in conversation. The scouts the announcers talked to said he's a top fifty pick, probably second round. They said Spanberger is rated higher as an SEC hitter. 

Spanberger is in a world of his own right now. Seven taters in three games this week...and it's not like they're barely leaving the yard. 

I saw one of his homers yesterday. The pitcher had to be muttering, "Damn! That's my best pitch." At the point I was watching he had ten consecutive extra base hits.

RJM posted:

hshuler posted:

RJM posted:

I'm watching the Florida-Arkansas game. Rooker came up in conversation. The scouts the announcers talked to said he's a top fifty pick, probably second round. They said Spanberger is rated higher as an SEC hitter. 

Spanberger is in a world of his own right now. Seven taters in three games this week...and it's not like they're barely leaving the yard. 

I saw one of his homers yesterday. The pitcher had to be muttering, "Damn! That's my best pitch." At the point I was watching he had ten consecutive extra base hits.

Yep. That was a good pitch but he got his back knee below the baseball and was still able to drive it.