Central Region Prognostications

For the Dominion district, if James River pitchers stay healthy and pitch to their known ability, I don't see much chance for anyone else; Cosby is going to be good, but if JR is on, they will be the favorite. Cosby is a lock for #2, and a slight chance to upset JR, given their good coaching and the Cosby swagger that can intimidate others. I think Midlo and Manchester will battle it out for 3rd. Midlo was competitive in most of the games last year and only lost a DH, 3B who didn't bat, and part-time pitcher..the core of starters last year were juniors. I think they will be very competitive, outside of JR and Cosby. I don't see Bird, Monacan, or Clover Hill doing well. With JR pitching, I have to believe they are the favorite to win the Central Region. Does anyone know of another team who has had 4 D1 ACC-level pitchers at one time ?

Atlee has to fill a ton of innings that were thrown by seniors last year. Their top two arms last year were seniors, plus one of their best relievers of the last two years (Bettinger) also graduated.

Hopefully, Jr. LHP Luke Bolka will return healthy. He was Atlee's top arm two years ago as a freshman, but missed all of last year with an injury. If he's in top form, he'll throw every big game for them. The question becomes who will they find to support Bolka.

Offensively, they return several of their top hitters (Keeler, West, Pulisic, Berry) but they'll have to replace a few guys as well. In my opinion, if a few things fall into place, they'll run neck and neck with Hanover (and L-D?) all year.

Side note- does anyone know who was hired to coach at Atlee? Elrod is no longer there, and unfortunately their AD moves at a glacial pace. He has a history of making an official hire for head varsity coach as late as January or February.

All I have to say is if James River doesn't win the Dominion and THE region with the horses they have (on paper) there should be a federal investigation. Nobody SHOULD touch them, but we don't play the game on paper and that is why we play the game. The only team that can beat JR is JR IMHO.

With that said, I think Cosby will make it interesting as Coach Lowery always seems to find a way to motivate his players and get the most out of them. The battle will be for 3-6. Bird came in 3rd last year (and the two previous years if memory serves me correctly), and I think they will repeat at 3rd place under new Head Coach Chris Walker. Bird has some talent but not a lot of depth as does Midlothian which will place 4th. Kudos to Midlothian for turning their program around last year. Monacan and Manchester will battle for 5 and 6....pickem. It is going to be another long season for Clover Hill.

Capital - Atlee over Hanover. Berry and Bulka are studs.

Central - Dinwiddie will run away with it

Colonial - Freeman over Godwin

James River should never come close to losing to anyone ... except Cosby.

Cosby has Ryan Bickford to throw a big game, and I think he has it in him to throw a shutout on any given day. The move of A.J. Nicely from Bird to Cosby hurts Bird/helps Cosby even more. Cosby has some big time bats (Luke Lowery among others) and will have no "weaker sisters" in the batting order. As strong as JR is in pitching, a couple of them have been known to walk a few, and that kind of thing plus an E here or there will get you beat. Cosby has a knack for winning those nip-and-tuck games.

I do see signs that Bird and Midlothian are on the upswing. Manchester is probably about the same as last year all in all. Monacan and Clover Hill I just don't know much about.

Every year at this time I find myself wishing Powhatan would go AAA and move into the Dominion. That would make things much more interesting.

Emanski,

What is the deal at Atlee? Isn't this their 4th head coach in, like, five years?

At what point will they just give YOU the job and let you hold it a while?

quote:

Originally posted by fenwaysouth:

Colonial - Freeman over Godwin

You dont have Deep Run in the top 2 of the Colonial? Havent seen them mentioned once yet in the thread.

They will be starting all seniors this year. Most of which got a lot of game experience last year. 3 D1 signees, 3 others that are still being recruited to varying degrees by D1 schools, 1 kid signed to Washington & Lee. If they wanted to, the other 2 starters could also play at some level in college and had an impact as Juniors last year but they are probably just going to be going to school and not playing ball.

Yes I graduated from Deep Run last year so I may be a little biased, but the talent is clearly there, and if Deep Run doesnt win the Colonial this year I will be pretty shocked.

Have to agree, seems like Deep Run will certainly have the most pitching depth with Boyle (Radford), Brooks (West Point) and Gardiner (also West Point) and some others who are also pretty good as well.

Not sure what else they have to put offense/defense on the field. Maybe you can fill in that blank?

Central District:

Dinwiddie will be hard to deal with. But, I think any of the other three that are usually in it (PG, Matoaca, TD) could knock them off depending on the pitching matchup. That being said, when Bridgeman pitches, Dinwiddie will be hard to beat. Matoaca lost a lot but as mentioned above, they reload from year to year. PG has Negron back and Coach Roberts will find a way to knock some teams off, he does it every year. Dale has 6 starters back from last year's # 3 seeded team. A lot of their success will rely on who steps up as the #2 pitcher. Gabe Togna should get it done on his turn in rotation. Colonial Heights could be a darkhorse to muddle up the 2-4 spots. They have some talented players...

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
Emanski,

What is the deal at Atlee? Isn't this their 4th head coach in, like, five years?

At what point will they just give YOU the job and let you hold it a while?

HA! No interest! I think this will be their 3rd coach in five years, 4th in six or seven years. It's absurd and extremely unfair to a very good group of kids. Elrod was practically tenured with three years as head coach. I have my opinions on the problem, but those aren't for a public message board.

I don't even have a feel as to who applied for the job. It will be interesting to see...strictly in terms of talent on the field, I think it would be a very desirable job.

Deep Run will definitely be the front runner in the colonial with all the returning talent. Also look to hear noise from Freeman and Tucker.
Deep Run has some great pitching in Michael Boyle (Radford), Stephen Brooks (West Point), Joe Lane (undecided), and Patrick Gardner (West Point)
Godwin will definitely fall back some, but get some key help from Gino Basso (G'Town) and Herm might be decent, but they lost Korey Smith and 2 juniors in Chance Pauley and Jamie Rooker to Glen Allen High School.
With Freeman getting back Godfrey I think they can maybe come in 2nd, but probably third.
Tucker returns Micah Gorman (VMI), Dylan Gonzales (undecided), and Jake Austin, 3 players that were named to all district teams last year.
My prediction is for the Colonial:
1) Deep Run
2) Tucker
3) Freeman
4) Godwin
5) Herm
6) PH
7) MW
8) JM
9) TJ

On the Atlee High School homepage, the head coach is listed as Barry Burton. I have to admit, as closely as I follow baseball locally, that's a name I've never heard. Anybody have any insight as to who he is, where he's from, etc?

If its the same Barry Burton I know then they landed a good guy. Coach Burton was at Varina (prior to Richardson who was prior to Marr) & Highland Springs in the mid to late 90's.

I played for him at Varina. Its been a long time and I know its hard to believe but baseball used to be big in the East End. We beat Lee-Davis 2 out 3 times the year they won the state. Dragum was LD's coach and he'll tell you that you don't have to win all of the games, just the right ones.

Best of luck to Coach Burton.

Rich
www.playinschool.com

As far as the Dominion it should be all James River and the only games Cosby should lose are against James River. And saying bird will finish in third is off because they have no pitching at all

If you're assuming Cosby will lose to James River, that is not a safe assumption. Historically those have been nip and tuck games and Cosby has a way of coming out on top in those types of games.

I know I'll be ringside for both of them if at all possible!

Atlee's stats for 2011 under Coach Elrod and his staff are probably some of the best in the area and the history of the school. Offensively they hit .420 as a team. Their starting 9 had a .449 BA. They averaged 10.3 runs per game. The pitching staff had a team ERA of 2.04. That was without their number 1 pitcher Luke Bolka all year. They still have most of their starters coming back and should be a tough competitor with their number 1 healthy for 2012. Hopefully they won't have to start all over again for the 4th time in what 7 or 8 years..the kids, school, and community don't deserve it. 2011 was a success for those guys. It's a shame that King William county wouldn't allow Elrod to coach at Atlee this year. I hear thats a whole novel in itself...he teaches there, but coached at Atlee. Atlee seem to finally be on the right track to be one of the top teams in the state this year. You would have thought that with the way the program has turned for the better, atlee could have done something to keep ELrod and his staff there. I think that he has produced about 6 or 7 D1 scholarships for his kids in what 3 years.. That's pretty good numbers, not counting the D2 and D3 players out of there. Atlee needs to focus on longevity, and with such a young and energetic staff there, it seemed that the kids responded well. At least the numbers speak out.. They were what first place in the capital district, won the tournament, and Elrod was district coach of the year... I dont think that has happened in Atlee it's history... Who's the responsible f

For keeping a coach there longer than 2 or 3 years? It's not good for the program..and I haven't heard of the new guy.. Did my research too, nothing...I hear that there were a few good coaches that applied,... Now I guess that this will be the 3rd or 4th set of upper classmen that will be effected by the Atlee head coach switch...

quote:

Offensively they hit .420 as a team. Their starting 9 had a .449 BA. ...The pitching staff had a team ERA of 2.04.

Whose daddy kept the scorebook on that team?

Speaking of STATS, it is going to be a different game at the Manchester field this year with the BBCOR bats.

Wasn't saying that its a given for James River over Cosby but they should win and as for Manchester and the BBcor bats, yes there will be fewer homeruns than usual but still more there than at most fields im sure.

There will be fewer HR's everywhere.

Teams that execute small ball well will not miss a beat. Cosby is always well drilled in bunting and proper base running.

quote:

Redsox65...Wasn't saying that its a given for James River over Cosby but they should win and as for Manchester and the BBcor bats, yes there will be fewer homeruns than usual but still more there than at most fields im sure.

I'll be lurking in the stands somewhere during those JR vs Cosby games. I'm hearing that Cosby got a stud transfer from AZ that may help their cause. It will be very interesting this year between those two teams.

I've played wiffle ball on fields bigger than Manchester.

no dad stats, just the stats that were in the newspaper and also the word from the all district meeting last season. Offense and pitching has never been a problem around that area of Lee Davis, Hanover and Altee. The only conflict that takes place there is Atlee can't keep their hands on good coaches, ex. charlie dragum, Tommy Harrison, Will Hicks and Kevin Elrod. There is 4 right there that slipped through their hands.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Redsox65:
As far as the Dominion it should be all James River and the only games Cosby should lose are against James River. And saying bird will finish in third is off because they have no pitching at all[/QUOTE

Bird will be fine they have pitching just nobody really has seen the lone senior pitcher Matthew Isaacs(who has some schools looking at him) and Bryce Harmen I have heard will pitch some this year. They have some young arms too so don't count them out. ]

Harman is someone to watch this year.

He's always had, IMHO, a truly elite bat.

I have heard a lot about him as a pitcher over the years, but in a handful of times I've seen him, the performances have not been strong at all. I heard some talk about arm trouble, too.

But there are reports of him suddenly hitting high 80's and dominating over the summer and fall. If the deal is that he just needed to get healthy and now he's ready to roll, this could be fun.

I can't speak of the other 3 coaches BUT Kevin Elrod was far from being a good coach.

quote:

Originally posted by justthatguy:
no dad stats, just the stats that were in the newspaper and also the word from the all district meeting last season. Offense and pitching has never been a problem around that area of Lee Davis, Hanover and Altee. The only conflict that takes place there is Atlee can't keep their hands on good coaches, ex. charlie dragum, Tommy Harrison, Will Hicks and Kevin Elrod. There is 4 right there that slipped through their hands.

quote:

no dad stats, just the stats that were in the newspaper and also the word from the all district meeting last season

I was trying to be gentle, but the offensive stats you quote are simply not credible. Neither are these particularly credible sources.

Unfortunately, those sources are going to get their stats from team scorebooks, and those stats are going to be afflicted by bias and/or lack of knowledge of scorekeeping rules.

By way of comparison, I kept a book for James River's 2007 and 2008 AAA state championship teams. In 2007, the team average was .332 as they went 26-2 and averaged 8 runs/game. In 2008, they finished 21-5, batting .357 and scoring just under 8 runs/game.

I know Atlee had a solid year, but the notion they hit .420 as a team is fantasy.

So what do yall think will be the preseason top 10

I don't know Larkin...winning the capital district, tournament, going to the region, and elrod was coach of the capital district... Sounds like he may know what he's doing. I saw them play at Manchester over spring break last year, they put up 35 runs in 3 games there. What about that bolKa kid, he was supposed to be their number 1 and he didn't play last year..they must have had something there to go as far as they did.. I guess they shouldn't be ranked high in the rankings since they weren't that talented last year. They lost a few to div 1 colleges, but should have the majority of their starters back.

And you don't have to be gentle, we are all gentlemen here, Just because a team didn't pull in a state championship doesn't mean they weren't an offensive threat. There's always a scorebook keeper at every game, you just happened to be the one keeping score for James river. So when other stats are published then there's only resason to be true. Take hanover county's baseball history, they have been known to have great offensive teams. Atlee not so much until this past year, and probably this upcoming season too, since they have most everyone coming back. With the new coach... Who knows.. should average another 10 runs a game, but I guess we will see. Hanover should keep opponents from score 1 maybe 2 runs a game. I predict at least 8 shutouts for Hanover this year. And for lee Davis, I dont think that they are going to be as strong as the other 2, but do have Michael Thomas who has a chance to carry them a ways this season. Larkin do research before hounding coaches, they are out there working hard with these kids for an entire year due to new rules for no pay. Get a clue, I think that hanover,Atlee,James river, and cosby will top off, deep run and godwin will surprise you.