College attrition rate

What I have noticed is that a few recruits will not qualify grade wise, and will be forced to do something else. This is probably not uncommon throughout the country.

From my perspective the coach tasked with recruiting has to do a great job in finding kids with strong academics and playing ability, then he needs to sell them on his school. Tough job to do in this very competitive environment. Over 4 years I have seen kids get hurt, suffer grade issues or get drafted after thier junior year. There are numerous reasons for attrition in college ball as it is not for everyone. It is very tough to keep up with school, workouts, games, studyhall and travel.

Lefty
Keep swingin it...

Not baseball-specific, but four-year institutions graduate only about half of incoming freshmen within six years. Assuming that baseball players have no significant differences than other students, your incoming class of 10-15 becomes 5-8.

quote:

Originally posted by Sdlefty:
What I have noticed is that a few recruits will not qualify grade wise, and will be forced to do something else. This is probably not uncommon throughout the country.

From my perspective the coach tasked with recruiting has to do a great job in finding kids with strong academics and playing ability, then he needs to sell them on his school. Tough job to do in this very competitive environment. Over 4 years I have seen kids get hurt, suffer grade issues or get drafted after thier junior year. There are numerous reasons for attrition in college ball as it is not for everyone. It is very tough to keep up with school, workouts, games, studyhall and travel.

Lefty
Keep swingin it...

"Not qualify grade wise"?
Do you mean college or NCAA requirements?
Don't the coaches check transcripts before making offers?
We've already had a couple ask for transcripts

quote:

Originally posted by stage4survivor:
"Not qualify grade wise"?
Do you mean college or NCAA requirements?
Don't the coaches check transcripts before making offers?
We've already had a couple ask for transcripts

Sure but transcripts are no guarantee that their players will continue to get good grades in a college environment over 4 years.

This is an important and interesting issue that can shed a lot of light on what type of situation a kid may getting himself into. There is no doubt that some programs routinely bring in a boatload of kids each fall while others keep their incoming number at or right around 35. Having just finished the recruiting journey I would strongly recommend looking at rosters and doing the math and, obviously, talking to the coach about this issue.

As an example, Washington has 5 seniors on this year's roster and has announced an incoming 2011 class of 16. Those numbers don't add up.

quote:

Originally posted by hitithard:
This is an important and interesting issue that can shed a lot of light on what type of situation a kid may getting himself into. There is no doubt that some programs routinely bring in a boatload of kids each fall while others keep their incoming number at or right around 35. Having just finished the recruiting journey I would strongly recommend looking at rosters and doing the math and, obviously, talking to the coach about this issue.

As an example, Washington has 5 seniors on this year's roster and has announced an incoming 2011 class of 16. Those numbers don't add up.

Yep, you're looking at it through the same lens I am. We were at a tryout that has 7 early offers to pitchers but, the pitching coach told my son they still have open spots.
Hmmm?

When this is an issue you really start to get into how much you trust the coach and how much your kid may want to play at a particular school.

Part of the situation may be that the school you are looking at has a relatively new coach. What he is doing is cleaning out, what he considers "dead wood." Schools in this situation would appear to be bottom loaded, or heavy with sophomores and freshman.

quote:

Originally posted by birdman14:
Part of the situation may be that the school you are looking at has a relatively new coach. What he is doing is cleaning out, what he considers "dead wood." Schools in this situation would appear to be bottom loaded, or heavy with sophomores and freshman.

A few of these schools have coaches with 3 years or more in residence.
If you've signed 10-12 freshman haven't they checked the 3 yr HS transcript first?
I'd sure like to see the stats of signed incoming freshman that actually show up in September

Been wondering a similar thing...on The Diamond Prospects site (South Carolina high school baseball), it shows the the University of South Carolina has 19 commits for 2011 from South Carolina. That doesn't take into account anyone from outside the state that has committed/signed. There's NO WAY there are 19 available spots. I've got to believe that come spring roster time, there are going to be a lot baseball players who's dream either comes to an end, or they have to move on to some where else if they want to continue.

Here is another one for you. The University of Maryland brought in 22 this year:

http://www.umterps.com/sports/...c-rel/082810aac.html

They still have not posted a 2011 roster. It should be interesting to see how many of those 22 end up on the new roster.

Maybe an Old Timer could weigh in. Are large recruiting classes (18+) every year a sign of the times or business as usual. With huge recruiting class every year it would seem that incoming players are really only being offered an extended try-out

Mine is a Junior this year, but he hopes he will help open a spot up for a player on next years roster.

Attrition is variable from college to college, coaching staff to coaching staff and player to player.
Most college coaches do not recruit and make offers to players they don't feel can play and contribute.
Despite those efforts and goals, some players don't work out.
Some of this is due to the difficulty in projecting from baseball played below college to playing in college.
So, some of it can be an issue with the judgment of coaches.
A few coaches over-recruit.
Some attrition is due to the MLB draft. Taking the Washington situation, they lose 5 seniors, and likely could have 3-5 of their juniors drafted. They have a highly talented recruiting class including a few JC players. Some of the HS and JC players may also be drafted and chose MLB rather than UW.
The coaches and players won't know that until next August.
It is also a risk some 1-3 of the NLI players and returning players will either have a grade issue/injury or, in this climate, economic issue that could cause a change in plans.

Finally, there is the student/athlete responsibility.
Despite the efforts of a coaching staff, study hall and the like, some get to college and either do not or cannot get it done in the classroom. FO had a great post in another thread on some of the reasons.
Alcohol, women, gambling and online gambling, video games, freedom and independence, procrastination, choosing what they want, and many others are factors.
Yes indeed, there can be attrition. Being a ticket holder for Stanford, there is not much attrition for other than baseball reasons. With the 35 player roster, they are forced to cut. A few transfer when they see the talent in front of them and playing time is a big issue.
At our son's DIII, 89% of those entering as a student/athlete graduate in 4-4.5 years, but not all of them are still competing.
Attrition is multi-factorial.
Are there schools that over-recruit? This board is filled with threads about that and the known schools where it exists.
Is over-recruiting a fact based on UW signing 16. Can't tell. If they lose 5 seniors, have 5 juniors drafted and sign, lose 2-3 of their class to the draft and 1-2 for other reasons, the answer is no.
If none of the juniors are drafted and all 16 show up, one can argue "yes." But this latter scenario is not the norm in college baseball, by any means.
With this said, college coaches want the best competition on the field to create an environment for success when "play ball" begins in 2/2012.
Some players quit. Some transfer for baseball and non-baseball reasons. Some players get released or cut. No program is exempt and every player should know this during recruiting, when they step on the field for the first time and keep it in mind until they walk off the field following their final inning of their college career.
Inter-mixed with all of this is the fact that talented players who work hard on the field and in the classroom usually do just fine. For most it takes a very singular focus.
Parents and players need to be aware of attrition and the various reasons. They also need to recognize college baseball is about competition, performance and success. It is equally important to appreciate each of these occur inning by inning and game by game and season by season.
And then when a player gets on a Summer league roster, it starts all over.

It's also good idea to differentiate between a program like Maryland that has a new coach and who is bringing in his first class and an established program that brings in a large number each year.

The answer to this depends a great deal upon the overall quality of the players being recruited by a program. Here's why:

There is a layer of Division I college baseball where the coaches' employment depends not only upon winning games, but also upon winning enough games to make them consistently capable of reaching at least the Super-Regional level in the NCAA post-season tournament.

Baseball is the ONLY major sport whose best players may choose to go pro out of high school. As a result, the coaches at the programs referred to above are consistently competing directly against professional baseball for the same players.

To be consistently capable of reaching at least the Super-Regional level in the NCAA post-season tournament, a team must consistently recruit the best players it possibly can. However, a substantial percentage of the best players choose to become professional players after their senior year in high school.

Some of those players who choose to become professionals out of high school believe and say that they intend to go to college first; but, when the signing bonus is made available to them, they change their minds. It happens quite a bit.

The best players who forgo professional baseball out of high school tend to go to the best Division I programs; although, every year, there are notable exceptions to this. Virtually all of them hope to be drafted highly enough once they turn 21 to be drafted again while they're still in college. For many of them, that happens; but, some percentage of those either aren't offered enough bonus or they aren't drafted once they turn 21. As a result, every class at the best programs has a high percentage of players whose future is highly uncertain once they turn 21.

Meanwhile factors such as academic difficulty, injury, illness, the departure of coaching staffs, and inability to compete at the highest level take their toll on every class.

Because of all of this, the uncertainty around the composition of the roster is constantly high, and the coaching staffs at the best programs are expected to identify and recruit the most talented players they can. If they fail to do so on a consistent basis, they lose their jobs.

I, for one, can't stand much of the structure I've just described; and, I'd change it if I could. However, the men who have accepted coaching positions at the best college programs have no choice but to do the best they can with the hand they're dealt.

The "best they can" includes an ongoing responsibility to do as well as they can to predict their needs adequately and recruit accordingly. I know a number of these coaches quite well (not only at UNC), and have discussed this issue at length with them. I've come away from those conversations convinced that they're sensitive to the negative consequences of "over recruiting" and do their best to avoid it. However, every single one of them will tell you that, try as hard as they can, it's exceedingly difficult to make the numbers come out as desired every year.

The alternative for these coaches is to coach at programs where the best players are not consistently sought. The athletic directors at those schools expect their baseball coaches to win more games than they lose; but, there is not an expectation that they routinely compete at the highest levels. Coaches may tell recruits that they're aiming at Omaha, but it simply isn't the ongoing expectation.

At those programs, classes are recruited with much greater certainty. Players there tend to stay for four seasons because they aren't drafted or they aren't drafted highly enough to warrant election to go pro early. This creates a recruiting environment that is extraordinarily different from that at the top levels.

In favor of changing the current mess that is college recruiting at the highest levels? I'm with you 100%.

Sympathetic in the meantime with the horrendous challenge that is recruiting at those levels? Absolutely.

Until the competition between professional baseball and the best college baseball is alleviated, the coaches involved at the epicenter will have to deal with this challenge...as well as they can.

quote:

Originally posted by igball:
It's also good idea to differentiate between a program like Maryland that has a new coach and who is bringing in his first class and an established program that brings in a large number each year.

I thought I did. I was showing an example.

Large recruiting classes have been around since our sons went through the process over 10 years ago. In fact, it seems like recruiting classes are getting smaller, due to NCAA regulations. I remember when some programs would sign 30+ players.

quote:

Originally posted by infielddad:
Some of this is due to the difficulty in projecting from baseball played below college to playing in college.

Looking back at things, that would be the biggest factor imho. My son's recruiting class had 13 players and only four had significant playing time during their careers. I suspect most leave of their own accord when they realize the coach does not have enough faith in them to pencil their names on to the lineup card.

This is a cold, hard reality. Luck is involved. Many times, nobody is certain about a player's ability until everyone is certain - including the 80 year old great grandmother sitting in the stands.

These are all excellent replies and IMO that is the reality of college baseball. Parents and recruits need to do their homework when checking out programs. Research previous rosters and track the players that return (and don't return). You may never know why some left but you can look @ trends with that coaching staff.

The life of a college athlete, my experience is with D1, is that it is all encompassing with every aspect of a normal college experience being overshadowed by baseball. But for those that persist and play they obviously love it above all else or they wouldn't still be playing.

quote:

Originally posted by stage4survivor:
If you've signed 10-12 freshman haven't they checked the 3 yr HS transcript first?

Colleges vary a lot in their requirements to be admitted. Coaches are motivated to recruit very talented players who may be marginal for admission. Players are motivated to try to get into colleges which wouldn't accept them without baseball.
Taken together, a player may commit to a college that is a stretch, with the understanding that if his senior year grades or test scores aren't up to snuff, he'll go to a JUCO instead.

I know a talented player who committed to a high profile program at the beginning of his junior year. Part of his thinking (or more realistically, his parents') was the hope that he would try harder in the remaining two years of high school, so that he can be admitted. If it doesn't work out, he'll go to a CC. Meanwhile, the college has recruited a player to be "Plan B". The kid who is "Plan B" is betting he'll prove to be a better player than projected, and will be successful regardless of whether the first player makes it to campus or not.

The numbers are not all that surprising.

Assume that Power University (a strong D1 program), recruits 18 players per year. That does not mean that even given an unlimited roster there would be 4x18=72 on the roster.

Two sign pro contracts = 16 freshmen make it to school.

Two don’t make grades/don’t like school=14 make it through fall freshman practice

Two are redshirted due to injuries/playing ability=12 make it through freshman spring season

Two transfer out before sophomore year=10 make it to fall sophomore practice. Assume all make it through sophomore spring season.

Two more transfer/suffer career suspending injuries after sophomore year=8 make it through junior year spring season.

Five are drafted as juniors and sign=3 left for all 4 years.

Thus, a typical team may look like this: 3 seniors, 8 juniors, 10 sophomores, 12 freshmen=33 players + 2 redshirted players who play 5 yrs.

Give or take a player here and there (some programs lose more to the hs draft, some (like Stanford) don’t lose even two) and you can see that Power University needs up to 20+ commits per year just to keep a 35 man roster stocked.

Compare that to lower D1’s – like an IVY where only 7 – 9 players are brought in per year and the retention rate (over 4 years) is over 80% and you understand why some programs are competitive and others will never be competitive.

Terps' fall roster has 37 on it, so they don't seem far from where they need to be.

Take into account a redshirt or two....or any one of a number of other reasons.....and they will be good to go.

Redshirts count on the roster in the 35 total.