College Baseball and Covid

Son left last Wednesday.  Moved into his dorm with three other 2020's. Classes start Monday. Nothing official concerning baseball has started for him, no practices, meetings or anything. Athlete's gym has not opened yet. They are allowed to go to the field on their own and throw at any time, but groundskeepers sometimes run them off if they are doing any maintenance to the field.

I know they put the fear of Covid into him. If any of the four in his room test positive, they are all quarantined. He said he would be pissed if one of his roommates got it.  I'm sure they said the same about him, so definitely some peer pressure to follow precautions.

I umpired a local college wood bat league team and one of their Ivy league players said that he would be surprised if they have a spring season in 2021.

@umpin757 posted:

I umpired a local college wood bat league team and one of their Ivy league players said that he would be surprised if they have a spring season in 2021.

I was just looking at the Ivy commits for 2021 this morning. Some of them have surprisingly small numbers. I wonder if they had any kids choose to go a different direction as a result of them being a little more aggressive with cancelling than other schools. 

I think the PR nightmare is becoming real for colleges that cancel as well.  They will lose recruits and players and parents are starting to stand up and be heard as well.  Michigan State just announced they weren't letting kids come after requiring them to pay for room and board 2 weeks ago.  That is a complete breakdown of the administration and gives kids no choices.  I would think twice about ever sending my kid to a school that did that.  My son's friend was set to leave tomorrow and got an email last night.  Terrible leadership in my opinion.

I think I can speak for everyone when I say that we all are hoping that college baseball is played in the spring.  Truth be told, I am worn down at this point - to the nub.  I've been optimistic, I've contributed and I've had hope.  But it's been eroded again and again over the last 6ish months.  I'd LOVE to hear someone make a realistic argument for why they believe baseball WILL happen in the spring.  To be clear, I am not really interested in hearing how it COULD happen.  Mostly because that's been said time and time again and none of it has been realistic in my opinion.  Is there any realistic argument to be made right now that it actually WILL happen in the spring?  If so, please, indulge me.  I need something realistic to recharge my hope.

Here's hoping for some convincing arguments, DanJ.

Ok, here is my argument for why baseball will happen in the spring.  

The election will be long over and the 24 hour news cycle will lose interest as Covid will no longer be a political bludgeon.  The positive trends will actually be allowed to see the light of day and more people will realize that life should go on, particularly for people 18-29 who have close to zero chance of having any lasting effects from Covid.

@DanJ posted:

I think I can speak for everyone when I say that we all are hoping that college baseball is played in the spring.  Truth be told, I am worn down at this point - to the nub.  I've been optimistic, I've contributed and I've had hope.  But it's been eroded again and again over the last 6ish months.  I'd LOVE to hear someone make a realistic argument for why they believe baseball WILL happen in the spring.  To be clear, I am not really interested in hearing how it COULD happen.  Mostly because that's been said time and time again and none of it has been realistic in my opinion.  Is there any realistic argument to be made right now that it actually WILL happen in the spring?  If so, please, indulge me.  I need something realistic to recharge my hope.

A few ways:

A vaccine will be approved in October timeframe.  Just too many shots on goal for me to think otherwise.  It won't get ramped quick enough to get to everyone but if high risk people are getting the vaccine, and 20% of the population has the virus (and studies are now showing the antibodies do work out 3+ months),  plus better behaviors and also people who are actually immune - this combo can make it safe to gather during late winter.   All has to fall right but it's not a complete long shot.  I think this will happen but I am an optimist.

Outside of that, these could work too:

If a good number of colleges work through the predictable early covid outbreaks and are able to have any semblance of a semester that will pressure more schools to get kids on campus.  We will know even more about the virus in 4 months (when spring decisions will be made).  There will be better therapeutics too.  

If ACC, SEC and Big10 have full seasons or close to it, that will assist.  I just saw the Big10 has 5-6 schools looking to put together a 10 game season too. That would be cool.  I do worry about Football though with the travel but could happen.   Remember the coronabro panic on the Marlins - MLB stuck it out and so far it's working.

Schools could decide to send kids home and keep athletes in a bubble in Fall and Spring.   That would be interesting.  As a father of a baseball player that would be great.  As a father of a nonathlete daughter this would also annoy me.

Baseball is an outdoor sport so I am confident that league play and other local competition could occur if schools allow kids or athletes on campus.

Also, the election will calm some things down no matter who wins (not a political statement).

There will be a spring season.

@DanJ posted:

I think I can speak for everyone when I say that we all are hoping that college baseball is played in the spring.  Truth be told, I am worn down at this point - to the nub.  I've been optimistic, I've contributed and I've had hope.  But it's been eroded again and again over the last 6ish months.  I'd LOVE to hear someone make a realistic argument for why they believe baseball WILL happen in the spring.  To be clear, I am not really interested in hearing how it COULD happen.  Mostly because that's been said time and time again and none of it has been realistic in my opinion.  Is there any realistic argument to be made right now that it actually WILL happen in the spring?  If so, please, indulge me.  I need something realistic to recharge my hope.

What is realistic?  No cases?  That's not going to happen.  It's not going away and a huge portion of the population has no desire to be a guinea pig with the new vaccine. The realistic way we play is that people realize that the death rate has leveled off to be similar to flu and we stop freaking out every time someone has it.  There are people that are scared and it's not ever going to be safe enough for them and they should monitor their own risk.

I don’t have any skin in the game since my kids are past college ball. They’re working adults. I work part time out of my house. It’s actually easier I don’t have to visit clients.

The only issue is I haven’t seen my better half for five months now. She’s in FL with her elderly mother. I can’t travel down and walk in. I’m at the point I’ve considered quarantining in a hotel for two weeks. 

I’m falling back to an old hsbaseballweb saying ... Control what you can. Figure out how to deal with the rest.

i can’t control COVID. I can only control my odds of getting it. Like it or not, I can only wait to see what happens. 

Other than not seeing my “other” my life is reasonably normal. I dine out, outside. I just spent a long weekend at the lake with friends. I know they’re being cautious. However,

I have come up in five COVID strings due to the irresponsibility of their twenty-something kids. None of the parents have tested positive.

My point is unless you like arguing the only thing to do is sit back and see what follows.

@baseballhs posted:

What is realistic?  No cases?  That's not going to happen.  It's not going away and a huge portion of the population has no desire to be a guinea pig with the new vaccine. The realistic way we play is that people realize that the death rate has leveled off to be similar to flu and we stop freaking out every time someone has it.  There are people that are scared and it's not ever going to be safe enough for them and they should monitor their own risk.

Yes, but I think at that point, the two choices will be "get a vaccine" or "too bad if you get it," just as it is with the flu, and that will put pressure on things to open.

I agree with Gunner, but he does have some big "ifs".  "If" things go well at some schools . . . we will see.  Maybe some of these idiot kids will realize that consequences for many people, not just students, actually depend on their behavior.  Preliminary decisions about spring semester have to be taken by October, when registration for spring classes happens; the question is, will things be going in enough of a positive direction by then? 

@DanJ posted:

I think I can speak for everyone when I say that we all are hoping that college baseball is played in the spring.  Truth be told, I am worn down at this point - to the nub.  I've been optimistic, I've contributed and I've had hope.  But it's been eroded again and again over the last 6ish months.  I'd LOVE to hear someone make a realistic argument for why they believe baseball WILL happen in the spring.  To be clear, I am not really interested in hearing how it COULD happen.  Mostly because that's been said time and time again and none of it has been realistic in my opinion.  Is there any realistic argument to be made right now that it actually WILL happen in the spring?  If so, please, indulge me.  I need something realistic to recharge my hope.

Sorry, I really wish I could help you, but there are many more reasons to think we won’t see college baseball in the spring.
It’s very unlikely that millions of college students and faculty will be vaccinated before the spring semester begins.
Colleges are not likely to be any more amenable to hosting more outbreaks than they have shown to be this fall.
College sports are not likely to happen unless most of the general student population is back on campus.
Baseball and other spring sports only generate significant revenue at a handful of schools.

I am optimistic that the 2021/2022 school year will be much closer to normal than this one.

Thanks for all the contributions.  Sincerely.  I actually feel a little bit better.  While I disagree with some pieces of things people have contributed, I commend everyone on not going dark/political to a point where divisions happen quickly and everything devolves.  A few thoughts:

-When I say “realistic,” I actually mean PROBABLE.  For example, there was some mention of kids being idiots and being irresponsible.  That is true.  It’s also static for all Covid intents and purposes.  If de-idiot’ing college-aged kids and getting them to be responsible over the next 6 months is part of a plan, go back to the drawing board and try again.  This is not at all realistic/probable.  Being irresponsible and idiotic is a product of years of learned behavior and age.  It’s what they do and we have zero chance of stopping that train on a dime.  We can ask for their help, but must plan to receive zero from them.

-While I think the election result could help baseball happen, I think it highly dependent upon who wins.  For the record, I will not vote for either of the major party candidates and I don’t want to get sucked into who is better or who sucks less.  There’s already plenty of that out there.  I am skeptical that a trump win would make baseball more likely.  Whether you feel he’s earned it or not, I’d hope we all could agree that no one will take it any easier on him if he’s reelected.  If anything, it stands to strengthen his opposition’s resolve.  Trump could give someone CPR and bring them back from death and there are tens of millions who would find serious problems with that.  I’m saying that would be justified or not, but it would certainly be PROBABLE.

-There is confidence one of the current vaccines in trial (I only know of 2) will work well (I’ve read 60% effective would be a win).  I honestly don’t know.  I know that the flu vaccine is simply our doctor’s best guess for the coming flu season, so I am assuming any Covid vaccine would also simply be our best guess as well.  But surely after this many years, our guesses with the flu vaccine are highly educated and refined.  Can we assume we’ll guess as accurately on try #1 for Covid?  I hope so, but is that PROBABLE?  I have no idea, but someone does.  Speak up if you do!

-It makes sense to me that if some schools stick with in class learning no matter what, that it could help others follow suit, but does anyone seriously think that’s PROBABLE at this point?  We’ll know a lot more in the coming weeks, but as of right now, doesn’t it look most likely that schools will pull back versus stay the course?

-There is a certain percentage of the population that is freaked out.  Some are every bit as freaked out today as they were earlier in the year.  I do not think it’s PROBABLE that many of them quickly get un-freaked out.  Especially when more infections and deaths are 100% guaranteed to happen and for a while.  If expecting people to stop being freaked out within the next few months is part of the plan, we’ll need a new plan.

-While I’d agree we will one day get to a “get the vaccine or take your chances” place, that is not PROBABLE to occur in time to help baseball happen in the spring, hence cannot be part of any realistic plan.

Good dialogue by all.  Yes, I am scrutinizing some of it, but I promise I'm asking in good faith. Thank you all and keep it coming and as politically benign as possible!

@DanJ posted:

 

 

-It makes sense to me that if some schools stick with in class learning no matter what, that it could help others follow suit, but does anyone seriously think that’s PROBABLE at this point?  We’ll know a lot more in the coming weeks, but as of right now, doesn’t it look most likely that schools will pull back versus stay the course?

 

I absolutely believe many schools will stick with the plan.  While there might be a two week quarantine from time to time with everyone learning online I do think many colleges and universities will stay the course.   Other colleges may allow students to stay on campus with only online learning.  You will hear about the issues loudly but not the successes.  

We just packed our SUV up with our son's dorm stuff and as I write this I feel very good about his school's opportunity to get the full semester in (home at Thanksgiving).   It's not a huge school (2,400 students).  The testing and tracing plan is good as are the isolation plans.  The baseball coach has sent some great messages about how the players need to follow plans and be leaders.

I just hope everyone gets the flu shot this year and that when the vaccine comes people do take it.  I will have no issue taking the vaccine.  I thought about signing up for the trial too.

Good luck to your son!

I also think some schools stick with the plan. I think overall the 3 conferences that decided to play football fare better, PR wise, than the ones who didn’t. That is obviously up for debate, but I think it gives others pause on pulling the plug quickly. Most of the really scared are home.  Universities need to appease the ones who showed up and paid.  Most of those do not want their kids sent home. They want a college experience.  Im tired of our lives being up to other people and I don’t think I’m alone. 

@DanJ posted:

I think I can speak for everyone when I say that we all are hoping that college baseball is played in the spring.  Truth be told, I am worn down at this point - to the nub.  I've been optimistic, I've contributed and I've had hope.  But it's been eroded again and again over the last 6ish months.  I'd LOVE to hear someone make a realistic argument for why they believe baseball WILL happen in the spring.  To be clear, I am not really interested in hearing how it COULD happen.  Mostly because that's been said time and time again and none of it has been realistic in my opinion.  Is there any realistic argument to be made right now that it actually WILL happen in the spring?  If so, please, indulge me.  I need something realistic to recharge my hope.

the day after election day it is going to magically start to diminish...by the holidays it will a footnote in hysteria history. 

I hope you took the opportunity to get invested back in March and April, it was literally the 2nd great crisis of the last 15 years, history will look at this in a monumental way...and it isn't going to be pretty what it records. 

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

 

Schools could decide to send kids home and keep athletes in a bubble in Fall and Spring.   That would be interesting.  As a father of a baseball player that would be great.  

 

I think you have a better chance of being hit by a tidal wave in Kansas then this happening. 

@old_school posted:

I think you have a better chance of being hit by a tidal wave in Kansas then this happening. 

That is exactly what Michigan State did.  Athletes remain on campus for workouts in the Fall even though no one else is allowed on campus. 

@old_school posted:

I think you have a better chance of being hit by a tidal wave in Kansas then this happening. 

Well, my daughter's school changed course last week and said no students on campus except for 500 of them.   Who are the 500?  An important group of the 500 are kids who don't have access to reliable internet/WiFi.  The school is doing right by that group.   The rest are athletes.   So her school has many athletes on campus and regular students at home (or renting off campus and partying).    Fall sports at her school have been canceled however.   But this shows the school is willing to house athletes. 

Did UNC send students home?  I am still a bit confused about what they did but press reports say they sent students home.  They didn't send their football team home, did they?   Nope.  Is the ACC playing, yes.   So looks like this is being done at a power 5 school already.   

So if you live in Kansas maybe its time to start getting quotes on flood insurance?