GREAT stuff, infielddad. I agree with you that time will tell on most of this, but I tend to agree with almost all of your assessments.
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Originally posted by infielddad:
"BA has an article which says the sign date moves up by about 1 month."
I need to read the BA article. I'm sure it will be more trustworthy than anything else I've read. That's an important factoid.
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"floridafan is hoping this will result in MLB teams drafting less HS players and opening more slots for college. That could happen, at least with some MLB teams, I think.
"On the other hand, could we expect a bigger MLB crunch on the process by moving the draft back a few days/maybe 1-2 weeks?"
Excellent point, I hadn't thought of that, or (as you mention later) the impact of possibly having no senior baseball money to go back to, some of these junior draftees really won't have a ton more leverage than the seniors....
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With the signing date moved up to mid July, there are a number of scenarios which could be played.
"If each MLB team has $11.5 million to use to sign 10 drafted players, ..."
I thought it was $11.5M to sign ALL draftees, with the exception of $100K per 11th round or later draftee? That's the way I read it, but I didn't read BA, though.
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"...with the change in signing date, I could envision a situation where teams draft their top 10 players and then the team uses the 4-5 weeks to leverage each pick against each other."
One way or the other, I think that is likely, too.
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"Why wouldn't a team pick the 10 best and perhaps look to sign 3-4 for $2.5 million to $3 million, and the other 6-7 are left for college?"
I don't see that happening. They're still going to want to sign more of their top picks than that, but the threat of sending the last one (or three, or four) standing back to college if they don't take a slot offer could be a real hammer, probably
especially those MLB teams know attend schools where there isn't likely to be baseball money awaiting. Maybe we're saying the same thing, though.
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"An important fact is a big difference between drafting and signing.
"I don't read this as saying MLB won't draft HS players. One read is this could result in the same number being drafted in rounds 1-10, but not signing and ending up in college."
Agreed. And if these include people the likes of Bubba Starling and Austin Jackson, who are coveted by other sports, I wonder if there won't be pressure to allow more multi-sport college athletes. We don't see a lot of them now, but at least for the first couple of years, I could see those types pressuring schools to allow them to keep their options open at least until they decide on one or the other.
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"I could also read this that more college players get drafted after round 10 and are faced with a cap of $100,000 or returning to college...where more than a few won't have baseball money waiting."
Like I said, I hadn't really thought of this, but this fits in a way with what I was saying about college seniors. Why wouldn't teams wait to draft seniors later, and force them into this $100K box? And for that matter, juniors who don't have baseball money to return to?
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"The big question is whether MLB will stop drafting HS players because of the cap limit or whether they will indeed draft them, maybe even more of them, and use the cap plus the earlier signing deadline to leverage players against each other, sign a few, and leave the rest to go to college."
Yep. To me, it is hard to see them changing who they want much. I think it is far more likely they change their negotiation in light of differing leverage points.
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"When we think there are roughly 3-5 team selections per draft who get on a ML roster, I can see teams using the cap to draft the best players and leverage them. Of course if the HS player takes himself out early in the negotiations, that leaves more for the rest, but does not free spots for a senior sign/draft pick.'
Agreed. Pretty much 100%.
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"Having $100,000 for picks after round 10 which does not count in the total could give teams plenty of opportunities to draft/sign JC players and college juniors and really leverage college juniors."
Seems likely. And if that is so, then that is how they free up the money for top HS players, no? Beginning to think it is difficult to see this as a positive for college draftees (sorry, floridafan).
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"My other effort is to analyze the overall impact of advancing the signing date.
"For college players in Omaha, they might only have 14-15 days after the end of the college season to strike a deal or be looking at heading back to college for a senior season, again perhaps with no baseball scholarship available to them. Now that would be tough. While HS players might be restricted in terms of $5,000,000 plus contracts, players in Omaha could really be in a tough bind facing a return for a senior year."
Seems so. And it would increase the pressure to align with "advisors" and the like - that can't be good.
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"Overall all, my initial read is this would be good for college coaches and college baseball. I can envision some real hardship and tough life lessons for the college players, however."
I agree. And a lot more money for veteran MLB free agents is freed up at the expense of these amateurs, both American and apparently foreign (if the link I posted before is accurate, and total foreign bonuses are limited to something close to a typical amount a top foreign signee currently gets....