D1 Baseball Roster Comparison, VA v. NC, Spring 2012

quote:

Originally posted by joemktg:
During a discussion a few days ago, someone mentioned that, as a percentage, more NC players are recruited by D1 NC Schools as compared to VA players recruited by D1 VA Schools.

As it is almost always the case, data is the final arbiter. So I did a quick analysis of D1 rosters in both VA and NC to determine if this statement is true.

Data and summary located at https://docs.google.com/spread...NckF4Q2J3bkVuLTJKUmc

Have fun with it.

Good post.

I think the final choice comes down to scholarship money and how much it will cost to attend college. A friend of mine from the military sent both of his daughters to NC State because it was cheaper than paying for a school in Virginia. He was a North Carolina resident and his wife file Virginia taxes because of her job.

Also, Chowan(D2)is in North Carolina but has the same tuition whether you are in-state or out-of-state. Of the 20 players listed on their baseball team, more than half are from Virginia.

Chowan Roster

Not that full rides happen much in baseball, but North Carolina schools can't offer an out-of-state student more than the equivalent of a full ride to an in-state student. For example, UNC in-state tuition is $21,000 and out-of-state is $41,000. The maximum UNC could offer a student athlete from Virginia is $21,000 which would still leave $20,000/year. That's about the equivalent of not getting any athletic scholarship money at a school in the state of Virginia.

"The maximum UNC could offer a student athlete from Virginia is $21,000"

I don't know what makes you think that, but it ain't so. Equivalencies are expressed in terms of fractions of that student's cost of attendance. A VA guy getting a 25% ride to UNC would therefore, under your numbers, get $10,250, while a NC kid on a 25% ride would get $5,250.

It is true that some programs are not fully funded, so the uptick in costs matters. Also, it's just a fact that when the player's family looks at the bottom line, staying in state is the better bargain.

The previous practice of using a weighted average for developing a dollar limit was done away with some years ago. But there was never a limit by rule on what could be given towards an individual player's bill, except that you can't give more than 100%.

The real problem is that NC's state schools face legal requirements for a very high percentage of their student bodies to be from NC. I don't know how that filters down to the athletic departments, but it has to limit how much recruiting they can do out of state. VA schools are allowed much greater percentages of out-of-staters, so they can do a lot more in the recruiting world as well.

My niece received a "full ride" to play volleyball at UNCW, however they were told (by UNCW) that amount could not exceed that of an in state student athlete which was $16K. In her case that left $12K as her responsibility for the $28K out-of-state cost. Using that example, the most an out-of-state student athlete could receive at UNC is the equivalent of an in-state student athlete or $21K. If it's wrong, then they were misinformed or misunderstood. But, they were led to believe there was legislation in the state of North Carolina that prevented UNCW to give more than they could give an in-state student.

True "full rides", in the sense they are given for football or basketball, are very rare in baseball, though I have heard of a few such offers this year for some reason.

But I've heard a lot of talk about coaches using the phrase "full ride" as salesmanship, and not always in a manner that could be described as reflecting well upon them. Some use the phrase to mean "full tuition" (but not including room, board or books). I can't explain the UNCW coach's use of it as you say, except that he may be unable to offer more than that to any one player for budgetary reasons.

The other possibility is that sometimes parents like to brag, and the phrase's use sometimes originates with them and not with the coaches.

Correct. NC public schools are limited to 18% out of state - and look for such a law to be passed in VA very soon, and for good reason.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
The real problem is that NC's state schools face legal requirements for a very high percentage of their student bodies to be from NC. I don't know how that filters down to the athletic departments, but it has to limit how much recruiting they can do out of state. VA schools are allowed much greater percentages of out-of-staters, so they can do a lot more in the recruiting world as well.

Albeit a snapshot of today's environment, the data suggests that the legal requirements do not filter down to the NC baseball programs. 53% of the NC rosters are comprised of NC residents, and VA rosters with VA residents are higher at 58%. So clearly that 18% out-of-state cap applies to the mix of all students, and is not applicable to the baseball program. Don't know if the 18% cap applies to the whole AD. If this is the case, then the other sports are compensating for the large percentage of non-NC players.

Should a law be passed in VA, I'd look to see the applicability to the whole student population and not specific to the baseball program.

"the data suggests that the legal requirements do not filter down to the NC baseball programs."


The data "suggest" no such thing - without further information (in the form of comparisons w/other states or over time) we cannot track NC's 18% law impact - for example, one could view the same data & come to the conclusion that were there no such law, there would be even more out of state students in NC programs - especially if (another variable) NC schools are/were of some notoriety in the given field, thus attracting more attention across state lines.
FWIW, other states also have OOS caps for undergrad/public schools - IIRC California is @ 10%

I mixed apples and oranges, so dug a bit deeper. When isolating PUBLIC NC and VA schools:

1) in NC Public Schools:
*328 rostered players, 220 residents, 67%
*98 rostered freshman, 71 residents, 72%
*Fairly certain 82% is greater than 72% or 67%, so I don't know how one can say that the 18% OOS cap has been applied to baseball

2) in VA Public Schools:
*308 rostered players, 205 residents, 67%
*90 rostered freshman, 57 residents, 63%

BTW: if anyone is interested in the raw data, PM me with email address

I can say anything @ the cap as there's no evidence - a one year snapshot of enrollment in a particular subset is indicative of just that - a one year snapshot of a particular subset.
Now, if you had a trend of players @ the various levels in both states prior to & after the cap was put in place and are able to account for other variables (total costs, attractiveness of programs,etc.)then you could begin to make a general statement about the (relative) movement of players across the border.

Now back to the original statement @ recruiting - a statement of "recruiting" is unmeasurable (AFAIK) as there's no database of "recruiting", so the discussion is unprovable - either way. Call it a barstool argument.

Your last post says that there's a difference, but you then post that the % of D1 players in & from each state are w/in .5.

As an aside, if I were a NC coach, I would likely have to put more effort into ensuring that my program was recruiting sufficent in state players so that I would run less of a risk of recruits being denied admissions due to the cap.

Here's a fun question: How many VA players are recruited by NC schools who later do not attend those schools? How 'bout the reverse?