D1 One time Transfer

I was just reading that approximately 25% of all D1 Basketball players are already in the transfer portal due to the belief that the NCAA will pass the rule that doesn't require players to sit out a year.   That number will most certainly trend higher.  We are not at the final 4 and there are over 1,000 players in the portal.   The future may be big annual turnover in college rosters in Basketball and Baseball.   A player sees a big recruit coming in at his position, or feels slighted in playing time so they will go into the portal.  I have to think a large percentage of these players will either not find an opportunity or will end up in the exact same type of situation playing wise at the new school.  It will be interesting to see how it develops over time.  I am personally not against the rule, this is just an observation.

As of yesterday, a third of those were grad transfers/COVID seniors so I think that’s in play as well.

Great point on grad transfers and Covid seniors.  I think I am just steamed that my college has three transfers already who don't fit that bill and two of them were great this year, plus another testing waters.   arrrrgggggggg......

If you are testing the waters, you better be pretty sure you will get bites. I would think you are off the team the minute you put your name in.

@baseballhs posted:

If you are testing the waters, you better be pretty sure you will get bites. I would think you are off the team the minute you put your name in.

sorry.  I was talking about Basketball and testing waters, meaning the draft.  College basketball coaches support this clearly and the player can decide not to sign with an agent and stay in college.  I will go back to talking baseball....

Yes. Thought you meant the transfer portal

Most of the time once they enter the transfer portal they’ve closed the door behind them at their existing school. Regardless of the sport. Some have entered the portal after their coaches have a talk with them about their future on the team.

For the draft, it depends on the sport. WNBA and NFL once you declare you can’t go back to college. NBA and MLB you can put yourself in the draft but you still have eligibility if you don’t sign.

Good article in the Washington Post, pointing out that all four Final Four men's basketball teams are full of transfers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com...aga-ucla-final-four/

40% of those team's points and minutes are from transfers.

Here is the player attrition rates for the ACC from 2019 - 2021.

Note, one caveat, will be how the coach documents players on their website. A redshirt can be rostered or non-rostered.

Some coaches will include the player on their website and tag the player with 'RS', whereas some will just leave them off the website (ghost effect)

Sometimes, the coach will delete an active player from their website (even if there are stats), this is not common, but I've observed this situation often.

Anyway, due to Covid, PAR decrease for most universities.

2021 Season

2020 Season

2019 Season

@anotherparent posted:

Good article in the Washington Post, pointing out that all four Final Four men's basketball teams are full of transfers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com...aga-ucla-final-four/

40% of those team's points and minutes are from transfers.

Baseball and basketball are not comparable. A baseball player can’t go to the plate every time his team needs to score. A basketball team doesn’t have players who only play Friday, Saturday or Sunday. It takes 18-20 players to build a championship baseball program. It only takes 7 or 8 in basketball. A dominating basketball player can dominate every game. He can handle the ball every time down the floor. A dominating pitcher only pitches once a week. A dominating hitter only bats four times a game. And you can’t double team a hitter with two pitchers.

RJM is correct, you can't compare basketball with baseball.

The point is that some coaches are good at recognizing talented players at other schools who will fit with their teams, and such coaches have had success in this year's basketball season.  It's easier to do that than to identify and train high-schoolers - Sampson says it in the article, "Transfer portal is like a menu. You’ve got appetizers and desserts. You’ve got your entrees. You kind of just say, ‘What do you need?’ It’s like one-stop shopping looking at that transfer portal."

The article says that the current (good) players welcome the transfers. It doesn't say anything about the players who were recruited and then dropped in favor of the transfers.  I wonder what Sampson said to them during recruitment?

That's the part that works the same way in baseball.