Decline of West Coast BB?

I doubt it very seriously.  Mostly an anomaly.  But SE and midwestern schools are recruiting much more actively and successfully in the West now and that is probably one of the bigger reasons.

 

I'm sure PGStaff may have something to say about this.  Pretty sure more prospects come from CA than any other state by more than just a little bit.

And to piggyback on that, I noticed in the draft there were a good number of "cold weather" kids being selected in the 1st round of the draft. I don't follow the draft too closely year to year so Im not sure if this is typical or not.I couldn't help but think that with the amount of games that "warm weather" kids can play bc of their geography that their projection is easier to see as apposed to "cold weather" kids. If you take equal skill player from the different geographical groups can it be said that once the cold weather kid is exposed to the opportunity of more reps will they surpass the kid that has always been exposed to more reps throughout his playing days?

Check the rosters of the teams who are in.  Better yet, check rosters in general across all divisions.  Those schools who bring in out-of-state players are far more likely to be littered with California kids than kids from any other state. With the advancement of the information age, I think it has become a bit easier to place the better players in various places throughout the country.  This has leveled the playing field but has not reduced the high number of good players coming out of the West (and other sunbelt regions where it is still feasible to play year 'round.  And yes, that gap has narrowed a little bit with more and better indoor facilities elsewhere.  But it is still significant.

I think the west coast is having a drought

There were 10 west coast teams in the the round of 64, including 3 #1 seeds.  The fact that two of those #1's, including the #1 seed in the country,  laid eggs in their regionals is just baseball.

PA2016Backstop - PGStaff will certainly have some data on whether thats true or not.  Hopefully he will be able to share it at some point.

You blaming me???? 

I wonder if the change of the ball shifted the balance back to hitting vs West Coast small ball, at least a little bit.  Seems like UCLA, CS Bakersfield, UCSB, SD St., USC got knocked out by teams that could put runs up in a hurry.

LOL.  Yes.  For the drought too.

Except for CSF being predominantly Cal kids, surprisingly there are only 6 Cal kids total on the other 7 teams combined

 

Over the last 10 years hasn't cali lost 12-15 + million in population ?That certainly can't help.

CA population decreasing?  I don't think so.

That's right.  CA has added 3 million in the last 10 years and is the fastest growing state.

How many of that increasing population are looking to attend college and play ball?

-6

 

We left last year. Couldn't be happier with that decision. 

I don't know about division 2 or 3 but the problem with division 1 is there are no SEC schools on the west coast. Hahaha sorry had to post that for a pac 12 loving friend of mine.

       
       
Well that destroys that argument lol.

Justbaseball,

 

Wow ! Where on earth could be better than The Bay Area besides San Diego I was up there over the weekend. My son is playing summer ball and working part time for The City of Alameda.

Well that destroys that argument lol.

I think it diminishes it, but far from 'destroys' it.  10 years ago I think the number would been 0 or 1.

 

Recruiting in general has diversified.  When our 2011 HS son was picking a college, he had  a fascination with UNC.  His HS coach was more than willing to call them and try and get them to take a look, but when we looked at their roster, there was 1, 2...maybe 3 kids from outside of NC.  This past year there were 16.  UVa has 15 outside of Virginia this year, LSU 12...Arkansas' best player and Golden Spikes finalist is from Cincinnati.  That would not have happened in all likelihood just 10 years ago.

 

In my view, a school in Southeast now routinely reaches beyond its own rich talent fields to get the extra dozen or so players it needs from anywhere and everywhere.  CA/West Coast schools may(?) have a harder time attracting kids from the Midwest and North (its a LOOONNG way to CA for mom and dad to travel to watch son) than a SE school does - and lets not kid ourselves, the dominance of SEC football has probably played a part in this too!

 

So why has this happened (aside from SEC football)?  The NCAA did all kinds of things to try and level the field for northern schools by adjusting the schedules and other such things.  I think its had some effect, but I suspect the biggest things to have shifted recruiting to be more regional/national than local is due to 3 things primarily:  1) the internet, 2) TV coverage (ESPN and the conference networks) and 3) PG and other with the showcase circuit.  You can even throw in that I think today's kids are more interested in getting at least a little away from mom and dad than previous generations.

 

I'll also throw in the emergence of some terrific college coaches...Corbin, O'Sullivan, O'Connor and others...that has certainly had an impact as well.

 

Anyways, thats all hypothesis and not much data to support it.  Just part of my guess, not much more.

Justbaseball,

 

Wow ! Where on earth could be better than The Bay Area besides San Diego I was up there over the weekend. My son is playing summer ball and working part time for The City of Alameda.

We spent 31 years in CA, most of it being very happy.   But when you reach 50 and start thinking about retirement we concluded that CA was not a very good place to be.  In fact, a recent article rated it the worst state in the country to retire in.  High taxes, cost of gas (over $1 more per gallon)...heck the cost of everything and eventually it just didn't outweigh the constant sunshine.  We lived in a nice 1800 sq. ft. house in CA in a nice neighborhood - but we 'cashed-out' and now live in gigantic house that stretches back into the woods in Cary, NC...home of USA Baseball.  I can't see my neighbor but I can see deer, foxes, squirrels...cardinals...turtles and snakes frolicking in our backyard property on a routine basis.  Carolinians go out of their way to be nice - every man, woman and child will say 'hi!' and hold the door open for you wherever you go.

 

I do miss our network of friends that was 30+ years in the making, but having been here for nearly a year, we love it - absolutely love it and have not regretted the decision for one microsecond.  Our biggest worry is that this area will turn into a mini-CA in our lifetime - we've already had more than one friend from CA either do the same thing and actually buy a house here too or are contemplating it.

 

Is it better here in Cary than the Bay Area?  I dunno, I suppose it depends on who you're asking.  But you asked me (sort of) and I'd say for us, yes.  Absolutely and unequivocally....YES!!

California still has about 1/8 of the US population.  By itself it is a global powerhouse in almost every conceivable enterprise.  I think in the last Olympics for example it would have been on Par with Germany as a nation.

 

I would suggest that similar to what happen in basketball 40 years ago, the west coast kids do look at moving east as more of an option than east coast kids look at moving west.  I have no proof of that but as the SEC, Big 10 and other eastern conferences get on TV more, it is natural.  Think about what happened with the Big East in Basketball.  These conference TV deals might be doing the same kind of thing with baseball.

I'm curious about the financial side of this shift. A 50% scholarship at LSU for an out of state kid still leaves him with a bill for almost $20K/year. A 50% scholarship at an in-state public university would cost the student about half of that in most cases. Every player's situation is probably unique, but the money must figure into the equation for most.

It's not that big a difference.  50% of Cal, UCLA etc still leaves $15k, so it's a $5k difference.  Plus, there's only about 300 D1 scholarships in the state with 38M population so players have to cast a wide net and they look for and see what's out there.  I can tell you that the amazing facilities and popularity of college baseball in the south east is attractive to kids.  And, for whatever reason, traveling from California to the east coast doesn't seem nearly as far as it does for an east coast kid thinking about going to California.

 

I wasn't thinking so much about CA. I know the CA public universities are expensive, and academic scholarship money is extremely tight.

 

I was thinking more about schools like LSU and ULL drawing kids from Texas, Florida, Georgia, etc. In those cases, the money is pretty significant.

I visited the Raleigh/Durham area last year as my son was fortunate enough to participate in the USA Baseball NTIS. Our hotel was in Cary and during our multi-day stay, we got to see a lot of the area and neighborhoods. luv baseball is spot on - it would be a wonderful place to live and/or retire. The people were out-of-their-way friendly and the area was beautiful. Lots of new tract homes going up in certain parts of Cary (several around the USA Baseball Complex) as well as older, established neighborhoods with beautiful homes.

 

There are great places to live (and to go to school) all over this great country of ours. I believe the "sunny-weather" states, like California, Texas, Florida, etc. will continue to thrive and produce ballplayers. But certainly, other parts of the country (population shifts, more indoor facilities, the web, etc.) have definitely joined the party. The MLB draft was a good example of that.     

Justbaseball: the argument that I read was, the reason the non west coast teams were in the college World Series was because they were and I quote "littered" with California kids. Because there is no way they could compete without a bunch of Cali kids. Well 6 kids on 7 teams isn't "littered" by any stretch of the imagination. And yes that destroys that argument because that argument doesn't hold water. Now if the argument was more Cali kids are playing across the country now. Well that maybe true but those teams littered with Cali players didn't make the final 8. Either way that's not the argument I read. I read a Cali is still king argument but that was shot down.

Yes, Scotty, I was lazy with that part of my comment... assumed and didn't even check the rosters.  You win.  Where do I send the soda pop?

 

JBB and others... pretty insightful stuff. 

West Coast teams have won the CWS 6 times in the last 12 years and have won 2 of the last 3 CWS.  While I would tend to agree there are teams in the West which are "down" this year(Stanford (lost their top 3 pitchers for all or most of the year) and Arizona at the top or bottom depending on your view) and a few who are seeming to tread water but are still good (Oregon and USD being examples), one post season does not equate to any trend, in my view.  

Appears to be a sore point with you - certainly is not with me.  But the Pac12 has more national championships than all of the other conferences combined.  Thats nothing to sneeze at.  Recently, as in the last 2 years (Pac12 had back-to-back titles just 2 years ago), the field has tilted to the SE.  I have no problem with that - I live in the SE now!!

 

I think others were just trying to answer the original question - no big deal.  Lots of ideas have been thrown out there - is it real?  Or is it a 1-2 year anomaly?  We will see I guess.

 

Did your Pac12 friend get under your skin or something? 

       
       
Nope the only sore spot at all is with assinine broad brush statements in a discussion. Like teams need Cali kids to make it to the World Series. I have no problem with west coast teams. In fact I didn't like the fact that 5 of the 8 teams in the softball WS were from one confrence and don't like the fact that 4 of the baseball teams are. I don't think its good for either sport. I have always believed one of the reasons for the NFL's popularity is its parody. I wish a couple of pac 12 teams were in the World Series. IMO it would be better for fans which in turn is better for the game.

Also no my friend doesn't get under my skin but apparently I get under his. He HATES the SEC hahahaha.

I have always believed one of the reasons for the NFL's popularity is its parody.

That's quite a funny comment...if taken at face value!! 

 

People are just throwing out ideas, it was an interesting question I think - I guess I don't see anything 'asinine' about any of them?

       
       
You know your probably right. Just not big on stereotype coments and jumped to the conclusion that was one.

Speaking of just throwing out ideas.... I'm wondering if kids looking for elite academics at a top D1 baseball school used to limit their search to Stanford, Cal, and UCLA.  But now Vanderbilt, UVA, Rice, and  before long Duke and UNC have got those kids widening their horizons.

 

Oh, and Cary, eh?  My wife spends about 5 hours a day figuring out where we're moving to when we semi-retire in a few years so I'll have to put that on her radar.

 

Raleigh is one of the nicest places on the Atlantic Seaboard.  Affordable housing, excellent Hospitals, climate is seasonable and on the mild side, you get all 4 and not a lot of snow, mountains and ocean are not far away. 

 

If you come from some high energy place you might find the pace a little on the slow side but if you are retired do you want to be a go-go person anyway?

JCG, I think there are schools you identified which have not changed in 15-20 years and won't and some who are rapidly changing.

On the one side, Stanford has recruited nationally forever and for well known combinations of baseball skill and admissions/academic acceptance selectivity.

Rice has similar standards to some extent on the admissions side but they have recruited since Coach Graham came on board largely from the Houston area and perhaps 60-90 miles outside Houston.  There are occasional recruits from other areas of TX and even a few from outside TX. but there are few and far between and Rice has succeeded at very high levels with that approach. Houston is a hotbed.

UCLA, for a number of reasons I believe, recruits only CA.  I would guess the cost of out of State tuition plays a factor and how that cost would impact 11.7.  If there is any subtle change, it could be  UCLA has a number of Northern CA players, seemingly coinciding with Coach Peters arrival from UC Davis.

On the other hand, I think you are very correct in pointing to Duke especially, Vandy and some others who built quickly and did so with a much less established approach to recruiting and perhaps with bigger budgets than their predecessors.  In that vein, I don't know if there is any program which changed their approach to baseball and its NCAA importance than Maryland.  While the reasons are not transparent, it has to be $$$$ and the infusion from Maryland and the Big 10 contract.  Just a few years ago, Maryland was not fully funded, it provided a facility that was at the bottom of the ACC and the AD gave their coach little to no support.

Maryland's momentum started with Erik Bakich. He learned the ropes at Clemson and Vanderbilt before becoming the head coach at Maryland. Even though he's left for Michigan those are his recruits at Maryland. I warned people to look out for Michigan's rise with Bakich at the helm. They won the Big 10 tournament this year.

I once had dinner with Erik when he was an asst. at Vandy - he does indeed have a lot of energy.  At first I wondered about his trek to Michigan, but he has built that program as well and he certainly does seem to know what he's doing.

Well it started with Bakich, but more than that it started with a fundamental change in the way baseball was viewed, or not. With Bakich they invested in ways they had not for many years before, from a facility, scholarship and resource allocation perspectives.

Coaches don't get to build much if the school does not support and invest in them and the program. Bakich got and made something with support and resources his predecessor did not.

Well I think you're right.  MD happens to be my alma mater, and even though I'm lifelong baseball fan,  if you asked me back then where the baseball field was located, I wouldn't have been able to tell you.  I went to lots of basketball, football, and lacrosse games, but not a single baseball game.  That was the culture then. Obviously it has changed.  It's changed for the better academically as well.

JCG,

 

I thought that the flag on your avatar was a clue for your retirement destination. Lots of Guinness,Bushmills,Lamb,Oysters, and Salmon to keep you and your wife happy