Do these stats imply that smallball hasn't increased with BBCOR?

freddy,

 

It’s hard to tell anything without a couple things. Defining “small ball” is the 1^st, and then providing data for it is the other. Unfortunately there isn’t a lot that can be told from merely looking at sac bunts. To me that would be part of the equation, but bunt hits and total bunts would also be a part of that.

 

Hard to say what the decrease in steals comes from. In order to have a better idea, you’d need to know the number of each “situation”, i.e. runner on 1^st with 0 outs, 1 out, 2 outs, runners on 1^st and 2^nd with 0 outs, 1 out, 2 outs, … Without knowing that, it’s really impossible to know whether the steals have gone down because of a lack of runners or lack of trying.

Good points. For example, if one could prove that the number of baserunners in the situations that usually lead to sac bunts were down significantly, then an increase of sac bunts per game per team from 0.58 to .076 would actually constitute a large increase in the percentage of sac bunts in "sac bunt situations."

Good points. For example, if one could prove that the number of baserunners in the situations that usually lead to sac bunts were down significantly, then an increase of sac bunts per game per team from 0.58 to .076 would actually constitute a large increase in the percentage of sac bunts in "sac bunt situations

 

Root,

I thought had addressed your reservations with this line in my original post:

 

"Batting average is down 35 points, which implies a ~3.5% decrease in the # of baserunners, a decline which seems negligible in explaining the decreased # of steals."

 

Further,   the decline in slugging--decreased HRs and XBH's; increased no. of singles--might actually result in a net increase the #'s of runners who need to be moved up.

That doesn't mean anything as to how many times teams had a batter up with men at 1&2 and two outs. My musings were strictly hypothetical and and meant to explain that there are a lot of ways to look at statistics. For example, you look at the increase in sac bunts from 0.58 to 0.76 and conclude that this shows very little change. However, someone else could look at that same stat and say it shows a 31% increase in sac bunts, which is a significant increase. See my point?

Root,

My main point is that the decreased # of successful steals (per team per game) more or less matches--and therefore cancels out-- the increased # of successful sac bunts (per team per game).

 

Since those are the two prime indicators of smallball, it seems that the numbers of runners advanced via smallball hasn't increased because of BBCOR.

 

Considering the widespread expectation that there would be a burst of smallball with BBCOR, I think that  this counterintuitive statistical scenario deserves a look.

I think players have adapted to BBCOR since it's introduction...

I don't know Bolts, it seems like the opposite:

D1 batting avg.

2010--.305

2011--.283

2012--.277

2013--.274

2014--.270

2015--.267 projection?? (maybe the low-seam ball will end the decline)

Maybe pitching has improved over that period?

Originally Posted by freddy77:

…Since those are the two prime indicators of smallball, it seems that the numbers of runners advanced via smallball hasn't increased because of BBCOR….

 

Where is it written that those are the “two prime indicators of smallball”? Maybe they are to you, but certainly not to everyone, and that’s the problem. I’ve always been told bunts of all types, not just sacrifice bunts, hit and runs and run and hits are also a major indication.

 

Ii just think trying to find an answer to something without defining what it is you’re trying to find an answer for doesn’t make a great deal of sense.

OK, SK, you "got me." You should have been a lawyer instead of an accountant.

 

I should have said sac bunts and steals are the two "available metrics" to measure smallball.

The other elements of smallball--bunt for basehit, hit and run, etc.--aren't tracked and recorded in the available data.

 

"It’s hard to tell anything without a couple things. Defining “small ball” is the 1^st,"

 

You need a definiton of smallball?  I think you're just being a troll with that.

OK, re-start.

With BBCOR as compared to BESR,

Sacs are up--there's about 1/5th of a sac bunt more per game.

Steals are down--there's about 1/5th of a steal less per game.

 

IMO, you'd have to watch a lot of games very attentively to notice these small changes.

 

But over the course of a season, these small increments add up. In 60 games, a typical team sac bunts an additional 12 times, and steals 12 fewer times, than they did with BESR.

 

Originally Posted by freddy77:

…You need a definiton of smallball?  I think you're just being a troll with that.

 

I need a definition if you want a real answer because small ball means different things to different people. If that makes me a troll, I guess I’m a troll.