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Originally Posted by Goosegg:

It's not a beat down; you need to, and indeed accomplished, one type of analysis. There are many many ways to approach the decision (assuming a decision is on the table).  Each approach may yield a different result as a family orders its priorities. The only way to reach a fair decision is to look at the potential results (the known unknowns; leaving aside the unknown unknowns) and act accordingly.

 

 

 

Sorry Goosegg, when I read that I immediately thought of this quote: 

 

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld

 

Last edited by NYdad2017
Originally Posted by 2017LHPscrewball:

Above having my kid take a shot at living out his baseball dream is to get him to a place in life where he is happy.  I could see how a stint with MiLB at a young age could be the worst thing for his long term happiness - and I can see the reverse - when I squint real hard.  In the end it appears that my simple math discussion has been put in its proper place as a small component of the decision with other life choices being the more important components by far.

^^^This is exactly how we were finally able to help our son navigate his draft experience this year.  And I think this is a fascinating thread with lots of great information, by the way. 

 

Ultimately there were a number of things that led us to counsel our son to set a very high draft "price" for himself (what we believed to be unrealistically high): maturity level (lowish), experience being self reliant (even lower), his absolute love of being a part of a cohesive team, and the uncertainty that came with having garnered very late, but furious, interest. While many knowledgeable people advised him that his potential for pro baseball success would be better being drafted out of HS we felt (and he agreed) that his potential for LIFE success was more likely via the college route.  So he set his number, went undrafted, and after some initial disappointment has moved on enthusiastically--he's playing summer ball with kids his age from all over the country and looking forward to heading to school in August.

Originally Posted by AliasGrace:
 

Ultimately there were a number of things that led us to counsel our son to set a very high draft "price" for himself (what we believed to be unrealistically high): maturity level (lowish), experience being self reliant (even lower), his absolute love of being a part of a cohesive team, and the uncertainty that came with having garnered very late, but furious, interest. While many knowledgeable people advised him that his potential for pro baseball success would be better being drafted out of HS we felt (and he agreed) that his potential for LIFE success was more likely via the college route.  So he set his number, went undrafted, and after some initial disappointment has moved on enthusiastically--he's playing summer ball with kids his age from all over the country and looking forward to heading to school in August.

Nice post. Best of luck to your son!

Enjoy the ride!

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