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http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080606&conten...=draft2008&fext=.jsp

Here's an article about the 2008 draft.

The article indicates that 485 high school players were in the 2008 draft, with a "flurry of high school players in the last few rounds".

And, a link to information on past drafts.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft

The talent levels each year at the high school and college levels has an impact on the percentage of players drafted from each group.

The talent levels can skew the results in the early and late rounds from the approximate overall 1/3 ratio indicated in the 2008 results.

Certainly not what many prospective high school players want to hear, but, "statisically" the odds of reaching MLB are enhanced coming our of junior college or three years of college.

And, as I've said in other posts, I think it is, overall, more difficult for high school draftees, because, in the case of the 2008 draft, 2/3 of the players drafted have 1 to 3 years more experience in baseball.

Escpecially catchers, Rob..............
Last edited by FormerObserver
The draft has gone more and more towards college players over the past few years.

However, the odds/percentages of making it are slim at best once you get past the first few rounds. It doesn’t make any difference if it’s a HS player or a college player.

The best way to check is to go back to previous draft classes and see what has happened. In order to get a good feel you would need to check back 6-7 years ago. If you go to the 2002 draft (it’s available on MLB.com) look at all the high school picks that are now in the Big Leagues, then look at all the college picks who are in the Big Leagues.

While this won’t tell the whole story, it will give an idea of which picks (HS or College) have been the most successful from that (2002) draft class. Then check 2003 for the same information. Obviously using most recent draft classes will not give enough information, because so few will have reached the Major Leagues yet.

In no way should anyone consider this post as favoring one way over the other. I could give hundreds of examples that would make either way seem like the best way to go.
quote:
However, the odds/percentages of making it are slim at best once you get past the first few rounds. It doesn’t make any difference if it’s a HS player or a college player.


The early rounds (1-3) are the most accurate prediction of who will make it to MLB.


PGStaffs exercise on reviewing the outcomes of earlier drafts is a very useful exercise for those closely following the draft.

Obviously the draft indicates that those coming our of college are preferred, and, I think the college experience gained is important for all players, but especially for catchers because of the difficulty of learning the position.

It has been fascinating for me to be able to observe this process by actually putting names on lists with faces and actually see them move through the system.
Last edited by FormerObserver
jerseydad,

Good point, guess I should have said "Early Round Money" instead of just the first few rounds.

For the sake of this discussion, it is easier to look at (and to find) the rounds players are drafted in rather than the signing bonus.

Here is the first 10 rounds 2002 Draft, Red = HS MLB, Blue = College MLB... Sorry for any mistakes, I'm sure I missed some, but this gives a general overview of the top 10 rds in 02

Rnd. Pick Name Position Drafted By School
1 1 Bryan Bullington P Pirates Ball State University
1 2 B.J. Upton SS Devil Rays Greenbrier Christian Academy HS (Chesapeake,VA)
1 3 Christopher Gruler P Reds Liberty HS (Brentwood,CA)
1 4 Adam Loewen P Orioles Fraser Valley Christian HS (Surrey,BC)
1 5 Clint Everts P Expos Cypress Falls HS (Houston)
1 6 Zack Greinke P Royals Apopka HS (FL)
1 7 Prince Fielder 1B Brewers Eau Gallie HS (Melbourne,FL)
1 8 Scott Moore SS Tigers Cypress HS (CA)
1 9 Jeff Francis P Rockies University of Lethbridge
1 10 Drew Meyer SS Rangers University of South Carolina
1 11 Jeremy Hermida OF Marlins Wheeler HS (Marietta,GA)
1 12 Joe Saunders P Angels Virginia Tech
1 13 Khalil Greene SS Padres Clemson University
1 14 Russ Adams SS Blue Jays University of North Carolina
1 15 Scott Kazmir P Mets Cypress Falls HS (Houston)
1 16 Nick Swisher OF Athletics Ohio State University
1 17 Cole Hamels P Phillies Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA)
1 18 Roger Ring P White Sox San Diego State University
1 19 James Loney 1B Dodgers Lawrence Elkins HS (Missouri City,TX)
1 20 Denard Span OF Twins Catholic HS (Tampa,FL)
1 21 Bobby Brownlie Cubs Rutgers University
1 22 Jeremy Guthrie P Indians Stanford University
1 23 Jeff Francoeur OF Braves Parkview HS (Lilburn,Ga)
1 24 Joe Blanton P Athletics University of Kentucky
1 25 Matthew Cain P Giants Houston HS (Germantown,Tenn)
1 26 John McCurdy IF Athletics University of Maryland
1 27 Sergio Santos SS Diamondbacks Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana,CA)
1 28 John Mayberry H Mariners Rockhurst HS (Kansas City,MO)
1 29 Derick Grigsby P Astros Northeast Texas Community College
1 30 Ben Fritz P Athletics Fresno StIdaho Vandals Zephyr Headwear DHte Univer
1 31 Greg Miller P Dodgers Esperanza HS (Yorba Linda,CA)
1 32 Luke Hagerty P Cubs Ball State University
1 33 Matt Whitney 3B Indians Palm Beach Gardens HS (FL)
1 34 Dan Meyer P Braves James Madison University
1 35 Jeremy Brown C Athletics University of Alabama
1 36 Chadd Blasko Cubs Purdue University
1 37 Stephen Obenchain P Athletics University of Evansville
1 38 Matthew Clanton P Cubs Orange Coast College
1 39 Mark Teahen 3B Athletics St. Mary's Collegiate
1 40 Mark Schramek P Reds University of Texas
1 41 Micah Schilling 2B Indians Sillman Institute
2 42 Blair Johnson P Pirates Washburn Rural HS (Topeka,Kan)
2 43 Jason Pridie OF Devil Rays Prescott HS (Ariz)
2 44 Joey Votto 3B Reds Richview Collegiate Institute
2 45 Corey Shafer C Orioles Choctaw HS (OK)
2 46 Darrell Rasner P Expos University of Nevada-Reno
2 47 Adam Donachie C Royals Timbercreek HS (Orlando,FL)
2 48 Joshua Murray SS Brewers Jesuit HS (Lutz,FL)
2 49 Brent Clevlen OF Tigers Westwood HS (Cedar Park,TX)
2 50 Micah Owings Rockies Gainesville HS (GA)
2 51 Zachary Hammes P Dodgers Iowa City HS (Iowa City)
2 52 Robert Andino SS Marlins Miami HS (Fla Southridge Sr)
2 53 Kevin Jepsen P Angels Bishop Manogue HS (Reno,NV)
2 54 William Johnson 1B Padres Clemson University
2 55 David Bush P Blue Jays Wake Forest University
2 56 Brian Dopirak 1B Cubs Dunedin HS (Dunedin,FL)
2 57 Jon Lester P Red Sox Bellarmine Prep HS (Puyallup,WA)
2 58 Zachary Segovia P Phillies Forney HS (TX)
2 59 Jeremy Reed OF White Sox Long Beach State University
2 60 Jonathan Broxton P Dodgers Burke County HS (Waynesboro,Ga)
2 61 Jesse Crain P Twins University of Houston
2 62 Justin Jones P Cubs Kellam HS (Virginia Beach,Va)
2 63 Brian Slocum P Indians Villanova University
2 64 Brian McCann C Braves Duluth HS (GA)
2 65 James Greene SS Braves Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (Plantation,FL)
2 66 Fred Lewis OF Giants Southern University
2 67 Steve Stanley OF Athletics University of Notre Dame
2 68 Christopher Snyder C Diamondbacks University of Houston
2 69 Joshua Womack OF Mariners Crawford HS (San Diego)
2 70 Mitchell Talbot P Astros Canyon View HS (Cedar City,UT)
2 71 Brandon Weeden P Yankees Edmond HS (Okla Santa Fe)
2 72 Pat Osborn 3B Indians University of Florida
3 73 Taber Lee SS Pirates San Diego State University
3 74 Elijah Dukes CF Devil Rays Hillsborough HS (Tampa,FL)
3 75 Kyle Edens P Reds Baylor University
3 76 Val Majewski OF Orioles Rutgers University
3 77 Larry Broadway IF Expos Duke University
3 78 Dave Jensen 1B Royals Brigham Young University
3 79 Eric Thomas P Brewers University of South Alabama
3 80 Curtis Granderson OF Tigers University of Illinois
3 81 William Crockett P Rockies Harvard University
3 82 Jason Cooper H Indians Stanford University
3 83 Trevor Hutchinson Marlins University of California
3 84 Kyle Pawelczyk P Angels Chipola Junior College
3 85 Kennard Jones OF Padres Indiana University
3 86 Justin Maureau P Blue Jays Wichita State University
3 87 Matthew Pender P Tigers Kennesaw State University
3 88 Scott White Red Sox Walton HS (Marietta,GA)
3 89 Kiel Fisher 3B Phillies Riverside HS (Calif Poly)
3 90 Josh Rupe P White Sox Louisburg College
3 91 Michael Nixon C Dodgers Sunnyslope HS (Phoenix)
3 92 Mark Sauls P Twins Bay HS (Panama City,FL)
3 93 William Petrick P Cubs Morris HS (IL)
3 94 Dan Cevette P Indians Elkland HS (Pa Area)
3 95 Charles Morton P Braves Joel Barlow HS (Redding,Conn)
3 96 Matt Craig IF Cubs University of Richmond
3 97 Daniel Ortmeier OF Giants University of Texas
3 98 William Murphy P Athletics University of California-Riverside
3 99 Jared Doyle P Diamondbacks James Madison University
3 100 Eduardo Martinez-Estevez RF Mariners Westminster Christian HS (Miami)
3 101 Rory Shortell Astros San Diego State University
3 102 Calvin Hayes SS Cardinals East Rowan HS (Salisbury,NC)
4 103 Wardell Starling P Pirates Lawrence E Elkins HS (Missouri City,TX)
4 104 Wes Bankston OF Devil Rays Plano East Sr HS (Plano,TX)
4 105 Camilo Vazquez P Reds Hialeah Senior HS (Hialeah,FL)
4 106 Tim Gilhooly OF Orioles University of the Pacific
4 107 Jon Felfoldi P Expos Glendale Community College (CA)
4 108 Daniel Christensen P Royals Xaverian HS (Brooklyn,NY)
4 109 Nic Carter OF Brewers Campbell University
4 110 Robbie Sovie OF Tigers Stratford Academy HS (Macon,Ga)
4 111 Jeff Baker Rockies Clemson University
4 112 Richard Hill P Cubs University of Texas-San Antonio
4 113 Joshua Johnson P Marlins Jenks HS (Tulsa,OK)
4 114 Jordan Renz OF Angels Union HS (Broken Arrow,Okla)
4 115 Aaron Coonrod P Padres John A. Logan College
4 116 Adam Peterson P Blue Jays Wichita State University
4 117 Bobby Malek H Mets Michigan State University
4 118 Chris Smith P Red Sox University of California-Riverside
4 119 Nick Bourgeois P Phillies Tulane University
4 120 Ryan Rodriguez P White Sox Keller HS (TX)
4 121 Delwyn Young 2B Dodgers Santa Barbara City College
4 122 Alex Merricks P Twins Oxnard HS (Calif)
4 123 Samuel Rick C Cubs Palatka HS (FL)
4 124 Fernando Pacheco 1B Indians Montgomery HS (San Diego.)
4 125 Stephen Russell Braves Cimarron-Memorial HS (Las Vegas)
4 126 Alan Bomer P Yankees University of Texas
4 127 Kevin Correia P Giants Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
4 128 John Baker C Athletics University of California
4 129 Lance Cormier P Diamondbacks University of Alabama
4 130 Randall Frye P Mariners Lake Orion HS (Mich)
4 131 Mark McLemore P Astros Oregon State University
4 132 John Boyer SS Cardinals Dixie State College
5 133 Alex Hart P Pirates University of Florida
5 134 Mark Romanczuk P Devil Rays St Marks HS (Newark,Del)
5 135 Kevin Howard Reds University of Miami
5 136 Hayden Penn P Orioles Santana HS (Santee,CA)
5 137 Willard Pearson P Expos Jackson State University
5 138 Donald Murphy SS Royals Orange Coast College
5 139 Jarrad Page SS Brewers San Leandro HS (Calif)
5 140 Bo Flowers OF Tigers Walther Lutheran HS (Maywood,IL)
5 141 Neil Wilson C Rockies Vero Beach HS (FL Senior)
5 142 Doug Johnson P Rockies Bryant College
5 143 Nick Hundley Marlins Lake Washington Sr HS (Redmond,WA)
5 144 Javier Rodriguez SS Angels University of Miami
5 145 Sean Thompson P Padres Thunder Ridge HS (Lajunta,Colo)
5 146 Chad Pleiness P Blue Jays Central Michigan University
5 147 Jonathan Slack OF Mets Texas Tech
5 148 Chad Spann 3B Red Sox Southland Academy HS (Albany,Ga)
5 149 Jake Blalock OF-3B Phillies Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA)
5 150 B.J. LaMura P White Sox Clemson University
5 151 Michael Megrew P Dodgers Chariho HS (Hope Valley,RI)
5 152 Michael Thomas CF Twins A Crawford Mosley HS (Lynn Haven,FL)
5 153 Shawn Scobee H Cubs Rio Linda HS (Calif)
5 154 Louis Francisco OF Indians University of California
5 155 Bryan Harvey C Braves Bandys School HS (Catawba,NC)
5 156 Matt Carson OF Yankees Brigham Young University
5 157 Kevin Kelly SS Giants Duke University
5 158 Mark Kiger IF Athletics University of Florida
5 159 Mark Rosen P Diamondbacks Salisbury School HS (Randolph,Mass)
5 160 Kendall Bergdall P Mariners Cimarron HS (Lahoma,Okla)
5 161 Pat Misch P Astros Western Michigan University
5 162 Josh Bell Cardinals North Side HS (Jackson,Tenn)
6 163 Bradley Eldred IF Pirates Florida International University
6 164 Cesar Ramos Devil Rays El Rancho HS (Pico Rivera,CA)
6 165 Walter Olmstead 1B Reds Texas Christian University
6 166 John Maine P Orioles University of North Carolina
6 167 Chad Chop OF Expos Vanderbilt University
6 168 Brandon Jones SS-LF Royals Wewahitchka HS (Fla)
6 169 Khalid Ballouli P Brewers Texas A&M University
6 170 Chris Maples 3B Tigers University of North Carolina
6 171 Sean Barker OF Rockies Louisiana State University
6 172 John Barnett P Rangers Florida Southern College
6 173 Scott Olsen P Marlins Crystal Lake South HS (Lake In The Hills,IL)
6 174 Chris Walston 1B-OF Angels El Capitan HS (Lakeside,CA)
6 175 Adam Shorsher C Padres San Jose State University
6 176 Jason Perry 1B-OF Blue Jays Georgia Tech
6 177 Adam Elliott P Mets Clayton Valley School HS (Concord,CA)
6 178 Gary Browning P Red Sox Wayne County HS (Jesup,Ga)
6 179 William Gwaltney P Phillies Louisiana Tech University
6 180 Chris Getz White Sox Grosse Pointe HS (Mich South)
6 181 Marshall Looney P Dodgers La Pine HS (Ore)
6 182 Pat Neshek P Twins Butler University
6 183 Chris Walker OF Cubs Georgia Southern University
6 184 Mike Hernandez P Indians Fresno StIdaho Vandals Zephyr Headwear DHte Univer
6 185 James Jurries IF Braves Tulane University
6 186 Brandon Harmsen P Yankees Grand Rapids Community College
6 187 Jesse English P Giants Rancho Buena Vista HS (Vista,CA)
6 188 Brian Stavisky OF Athletics University of Notre Dame
6 189 Brian Barden 3B Diamondbacks Oregon State University
6 190 Troy Cate P Mariners Ricks Junior College
6 191 J.P. Duran P Astros St. Mary's University
6 192 Cody Haerther 3B Cardinals Chaminade Prep HS (Chatsworth,CA)
7 193 Matt Capps P Pirates Alexander HS (Douglasville,GA)
7 194 Jeff Autrey P Devil Rays University of North Carolina
7 195 Corey Wachman P Reds Valdosta State University
7 196 Paul Henry P Orioles Ball State University
7 197 Mike O'Connor P Expos George Washington University
7 198 Jonah Bayliss P Royals Trinity College (CT)
7 199 Thomas Wilhelmsen P Brewers Tucson HS (Ariz High Magnet)
7 200 Wilton Reynolds OF Tigers Oral Roberts University
7 201 Ryan Spilborghs OF Rockies University of California-Santa Barbara
7 202 Andrew Tisdale P Rangers Chapman University
7 203 Xavier Arroyo OF Marlins Antilles HS (San Juan,PR)
7 204 Jeff Leise OF Angels University of Nebraska
7 205 Matt Lynch P Padres Florida State University
7 206 Brian Grant P Blue Jays C B Aycock HS (Goldsboro,NC)
7 207 James Anderson Mets University of California-Riverside
7 208 Jason Neighborgal Red Sox Riverside HS (Hillsborough,NC)
7 209 Robby Read P Phillies Florida State University
7 210 Micah Schnurstein 3B White Sox Basic HS (Henderson,NV)
7 211 David Bagley DH Dodgers University of San Diego
7 212 William Barrett P-C Twins University of San Diego
7 213 Joey Monahan IF Cubs Liberty University
7 214 Brian Wright OF Indians North Carolina State University
7 215 Pat Clayton Braves Walton HS (Marietta,GA)
7 216 Ross Michelsen 1B Yankees Lamar HS (Arlington,TX)
7 217 Michael Musgrave P Giants Ocala HS (FL)
7 218 Brant Colamarino 1B Athletics University of Pittsburgh
7 219 Matthew Henrie P Diamondbacks Clemson University
7 220 Evel Bastida-Martinez 2B Mariners
7 221 Scott Robinson Astros Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA)
7 222 David Williamson Cardinals University of Massachusetts-Lowell
8 223 Bobby Kingsbury OF Pirates Fordham University
8 224 Joey Gomes OF Devil Rays Santa Clara University
8 225 O.J. King P Reds Northwestern State University
8 226 Ryan Hubele C Orioles University of Texas
8 227 Friedel Pinkston P Expos Hart County HS (Hartwell,Ga)
8 228 Kenard Springer OF Royals Nettleton HS (MS)
8 229 Stephen Kahn Brewers Servite HS (Anaheim,CA)
8 230 Troy Pickford P Tigers **** Roberts University
8 231 Jeff Salazar OF Rockies Oklahoma State University
8 232 Chris O'Riordan 2B Rangers Stanford University
8 233 Ryan Warpinski P Marlins Texas A&M University
8 234 James Holcomb P Angels University of Nevada-Reno
8 235 Luke Steidlmayer P Padres University of California-Davis
8 236 Chris Leonard Blue Jays University of Miami
8 237 Tyler Davidson Mets University of Washington
8 238 Brandon Moss 2B Red Sox Loganville HS (Monroe,Ga)
8 239 Steven Doetsch OF Phillies Dunedin HS (Dunedin,FL)
8 240 Sean Tracey P White Sox University of California-Irvine
8 241 Jamaal Hamilton P Dodgers Monterey HS (Lubbock,TX)
8 242 Adam Lind Twins Highland HS (Anderson,IN)
8 243 Jason Fransz OF Cubs University of Oklahoma
8 244 Blake Allen P Indians Union University
8 245 Jon Schuerholz SS Braves Auburn University
8 246 Brad Halsey P Yankees University of Texas
8 247 Clay Hensley P Giants Lamar University
8 248 Levi Burton P Athletics Western Carolina University
8 249 Ryan Mahoney H Diamondbacks Carmel HS (Patterson,NY)
8 250 Brandon Perry P Mariners Graham HS (NC)
8 251 Bill Westhoff P Astros University of Dallas
8 252 Tyler Parker C-1B Cardinals Georgia Tech
9 253 Joe Hicks OF Pirates Forest Brook HS (Houston)
9 254 Chris Leroux Devil Rays St Joseph SS HS (Mississauga,Can)
9 255 Steven Booth C Reds University of San Francisco
9 256 Trevor Caughey P Orioles Cuesta College
9 257 Christopher Barlow P Expos LeMoyne College
9 258 Matt Tupman C Royals University of Massachusetts-Lowell
9 259 Edwin Walker P Brewers Highlands HS (San Antonio)
9 260 Marcos Hernandez P Tigers Juan Ponce De Leon HS (Sabana Hoyos,PR)
9 261 John Tetuan P Rockies Wichita State University
9 262 Steven Herce P Rangers Rice University
9 263 Eric Reed OF Marlins Texas A&M University
9 264 Caleb Maher OF Angels Ceres HS (CA)
9 265 Brian Burgamy 2B Padres Wichita State University
9 266 Russell Savickas P Blue Jays Johnston HS (RI)
9 267 Christian Colonel SS Mets College of Southern Idaho
9 268 Tyler Pelland P Red Sox Mount Abraham HS (Bristol,Vt)
9 269 Rob Harrand P Phillies San Diego State University
9 270 Todd Deininger P White Sox Texas A&M University
9 271 Denver Kitch IF Dodgers University of Oklahoma
9 272 Doug Deeds OF Twins Ohio State University
9 273 Adam Greenberg OF Cubs University of North Carolina
9 274 Shaun Larkin IF Indians Cal State Northridge University
9 275 Nicholas Starnes P Braves Graham HS (NC)
9 276 Eric Verbryke OF Yankees Cal State Northridge University
9 277 Paul Walter OF Giants Wichita State University
9 278 Shane Komine P Athletics University of Nebraska
9 279 Klent Corley P Diamondbacks Grand Canyon University
9 280 Terry Forbes P Mariners Auburn Drive HS (Dartmouth,NS)
9 281 Andy Topham IF Astros Stanford University
9 282 Travis Hanson SS Cardinals University of Portland
10 283 David Davidson P Pirates Denis Morris HS (Thorold,ON)
10 284 Jason Hammel P Devil Rays Treasure Valley Community College
10 285 Frankie Keller P Reds Abilene Christian University
10 286 Matt Bolander P Orioles Pendleton Heights HS (Anderson,IN)
10 287 Justin Azze P Expos Orange Coast College
10 288 Alonzo Atencio P Royals Lamar Community College
10 289 Jeremy Frost C Brewers University of Central Florida
10 290 Luke Carlin C Tigers Northeastern University
10 291 Isaac Pavlik P Rockies Seton Hall University
10 292 Nate Gold 1B Rangers Gonzaga University
10 293 Robert Word OF Marlins University of Virginia
10 294 Howard Kendrick 2B Angels St. John's River Community College
10 295 L.J. Biernbaum OF Padres Florida Atlantic University
10 296 Eric Arnold 2B-3B Blue Jays Rice University
10 297 Matthew Lindstrom P Mets Ricks Junior College
10 298 Greg Stone IF Red Sox Bacone Junior College
10 299 Ryan Barthelemy IF Phillies Florida State University
10 300 Orionny Lopez P White Sox Forest Hill HS (West Palm Beach,FL)
10 301 Ryan Williams P Dodgers Old Dominion University
10 302 Kyle Phillips C Twins El Capitan HS (Lakeside,CA)
10 303 Keith Butler OF Cubs Liberty University
10 304 Keith Ramsey P Indians University of Florida
10 305 Yaron Peters 1B Braves University of South Carolina
10 306 Gary Bell P Yankees University of South Carolina
10 307 Glenn Woolard P Giants Kutztown University
10 308 J.R. Pickens P Athletics University of Mississippi
10 309 Mike Pierce C Diamondbacks Clovis HS (CA)
10 310 Brian Stitt P Mariners Indian River Community College
10 311 Brad Chedister Astros Panola College
10 312 Matt Lemanczyk OF Cardinals Sacred Heart University
Last edited by MN-Mom
This is an interesting list, as much for the demonstration of how hard it is to make it to MLB as for the proportion of HS to college players.

I think there may be a few players drafted and made it to the show that got missed. I searched the list for "giants" and saw Fred Lewis and Kevin Corria in black rather than red/blue. Clay Hensley also showed up in black, and he's done a stint with the Padres. So here's my request to each reader of the thread: search (Ctrl-F in your browser) on the name of the team with which you are most familiar, and look for guys who have played in MLB. Then we'll impose on PGStaff to add some color to his post.

Jesse English also showed up. He hasn't made it above high A, but he only turned 24 last September! The point is that if we are going to compare mid and lower round guys, it may be best to use a draft that is 3 years earlier for the HS school guys, or wait another three years to compile the results.

The list is surprising to me-- I hadn't realized how long the odds are for a player chosen below the second round.
What that list says to me is, even being a high round pick doesn't guarantee you MLB riches. Every one of those guys still in black on the list above was thought of at the time as a big stud player.

We all think our sons are the next Babe Ruth, but the moral of the story is, if the signing money offered isn't awesome, maybe you should get that education first.

(But if the offer IS awesome, hey, don't be stupid!)
FormerObserver,

You're welcome, I'm glad you liked that. Wish I had time to do that for every year. Actually wish I would have had the time to make that list more accurate.

quote:
I think there may be a few players drafted and made it to the show that got missed. I searched the list for "giants" and saw Fred Lewis and Kevin Corria in black rather than red/blue. Clay Hensley also showed up in black, and he's done a stint with the Padres. So here's my request to each reader of the thread: search (Ctrl-F in your browser) on the name of the team with which you are most familiar, and look for guys who have played in MLB. Then we'll impose on PGStaff to add some color to his post.


3FingeredGlove,

I knew I missed several. That was actually kind of tough to do in the amount of time I had and be totally accurate.

I would be happy to color them in as people post players they know have been in the Major Leagues from that list. In the end we might end up with a list that might be accurate and actually tell us something. Everyone can read what they want into that list.

Slugger,

Most of those draft picks are still in baseball and some will still make it to the top. But typically HS players are on a 5 year plan to make it. I'm not sure, but I think around 24+ is the average age of a MLB rookie. Some in the list have been hampered by injuries. Some are even out of baseball. Some did not sign that year and went to college.
Good stuff PG!
I saw one you missed also, Jeff Baker, #128 I do beleive.

5 years for the HS player is correct, very high draft picks (top of the first round) is less, using examples of Andrew Miller, Joba and Tim L (however you spell his last name). Smile

Another interesting thing that I noticed, is the drafting teams. A HS player has a much better chance when drafted by a small market team or one that relies heavily on their farm system. Back in the early 2000's, many teams traded more heavily for more experienced FA.

Would you agree?
Last edited by TPM
When I was a boy, a 25 year old MLB player had a book on him. If he is now a rookie at that age, then MLB is scared by retaining 35 year old proven has-beens/hanger on'ers

I am not a big fan of MLB these days because of this. I rather see the kid than the same old crapola .255 hitter out there because he can field a ground ball?

I can still field a grounder, and throw out the lazy bum who refuses to show us that 4.1 speed to 1st base.
Last edited by OLDSLUGGER8
TPM,

Correct… I will color Jeff Baker Blue

Joba Chamberlain was actually the 41st pick of the draft in 2006 (sandwich pick)
Lincecum was the 10th pick in 2006
Andrew Miller was the 6th pick that year.

3 Pitchers making it that quick is very unusual, but not in 2006 when at least 10 draft picks pitched in the ML this year. And one winning the Cy Young!

Also already making it to the Big Leagues from the 2006 draft class…
Luke Hochever the 1st pick
Greg Reynolds the 2nd pick
Evan Longoria the 3rd pick
Brandon Marrow the 5th pick
Clayton Kershaw the 7th pick (out of high school)
Max Scherzer the 11th pick
Ian Kennedy the 21st pick
Chris Perez the 42nd pick
Brett Anderson 2nd rd (out of high school) (Dad the coach at Oklahoma State) was traded in the Dan Heren deal to the A’s. He’s about ready to make it.

quote:
Another interesting thing that I noticed, is the drafting teams. A HS player has a much better chance when drafted by a small market team or one that relies heavily on their farm system. Back in the early 2000's, many teams traded more heavily for more experienced FA.


The top college drafts also have a better chance with a small market team. However, some have made it recently with teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.

The top high school kids generally go very early in the draft. For example BJ Upton #2, Justin Upton #1, Delmon Young #1, Joey Mauer #1, Tim Beckham #1, Eric Hosmer #3, Matt Bush #1, Adrian Gonzalez #1, Josh Hamilton #1, Josh Beckett #2, etc. all went to small market teams.
What (I think) this is saying is that all early picks (college or HS) generally go to the small market clubs because they are the ones usually getting the earliest picks in the draft. (The worst record the previous year) However, as recently as 2007 17 of the first 30 picks were high school kids.

Slugger,

There are lots who make it before age 24. Heck, my son was 22 when he first appeared. But most college players are 22 when they’re drafted. Very few go directly to the Major Leagues.

BTW, I would love to see you fielding those ground balls in the major leagues? Smile Why not go for a tryout?

I bet if your son debuts at 25 you’ll once again become a big fan of Major League baseball. The guys playing at that level at 35 are there because they have proven they can play. Most young players around 20-21 just aren’t quite ready. Others are already up there at that age. Plus there’s the business side of things that makes bringing young kids up too early unwise at times.

As to having a book on someone... These days the book is so complete that opponents know everything earlier than ever. Modern technology didn't miss baseball!
Yes, but this was the 02 list and he was drafted in 02 out of high school in the 2nd rd by the Rockies. In 2005 he was drafted by the D'Backs in the 3rd round. I mentioned there were some on the 02 list who did not sign (in 02), he was one of them. Pick #28 (1st rd) John Mayberry didn't sign either. Later he went again in the 1st rd out of Stanford. There were several others who did not sign in 2002. A few of them were not even drafted later on. Then some like Adam Loewen were Draft & Follows and went to Junior College for a year. It's just hard to explain all the various situations.
Well, 2002 was the Athletic's Moneyball draft, and since I'm a Northern California guy, I checked them using Google on each name drafted.

Now, I figure MLB is MLB, even if it's only for a cup of coffee.....

98 William (Bill) Murphy D'backs 2007
128 Already noted by TPM-- but John, not Jeff (Clemson Smile) Baker. Both were drafted in 2002. Marlins 2008
158 Mark Kiger A real oddity--only 2 games total in MLB, but both in the ALCS! A's 2006
248 Levi Jared Burton Rule 5 pick up by the Reds 2007/8
278 Shane Komine A's 2006/7

Oakland had 16 picks in the first 10 rounds that year, with 8 in the first two rounds. Of the 16, 8 have played in the show. Of the 8 picked in rounds 1 and 2, 3 have made it.

I'd like to see this list filled out, but it ain't easy. For example, the name Levi Burton didn't ring any bells with me. But I suspect the name Jared Burton (100 IP in relief, ERA under 3) is familiar to quite a few in the Midwest.
The one guy I know who follows the history of the draft more than anyone is Allan Simpson. He just did a short article about the 1998 draft on pgcrosschecker.

Some interesting things from that article...

Sabathia, a first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians, and Teixeira, an unsigned ninth-round selection of the Boston Red Sox, were two of 1,445 players that were drafted that year. Of that total, 188—or 13.0 percent—have played Major League Baseball. Some like Sabathia, Teixeira, Matt Holliday (Rockies, seventh round) and Brad Lidge (Astros, first round) have excelled; many others have not.

Of the 188 future big leaguers that were products of that draft, 139 were among 833 players who signed at the time they drafted. That represents a success rate of 16.7 percent. Of the 611 players who did not sign, 49—or 8.0 percent—were subsequently re-drafted and still reached the big leagues. One selection was voided.

The since-abandoned draft-and-follow rule was a key draft strategy 10 years ago, and 48 such players were signed prior to the next year’s draft. Of the 48, eight (or 16.7 percent) became future big leaguers, including Chicago White Sox lefthander Mark Buehrle, a lowly 38th-rounder. Catcher Gerald Laird, a second-round pick of the Oakland A’s, signed for $1 million and in the process became the first draft-and-follow selection ever to sign a seven-figure deal.


Interestingly, the 16.7 percent success rate of 1998 draft picks signing at the time they were selected was identical to the rate of players signing as draft-and-follows.

By the time the dust had settled on the 1998 draft, the six largest package deals ever given to draft picks signing with the teams that drafted them had been doled out. No. 2 overall pick Mark Mulder received a $3.2 million bonus from the Oakland A’s; No. 3 pick Corey Patterson was given a $3.7 million bonus from the Chicago Cubs; and No. 5 pick J.D. Drew received a guaranteed $7 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals that included a $3 million bonus.


The Cardinals also agreed to a $3.4 million deal with Chad Hutchinson in the second round that included a $2.3 million bonus, and the New York Yankees forked over $3.9 million in guarantees, including a $2 million bonus, to third-rounder Drew Henson. Both those deals were made to steer the players away from potentially promising football careers as quarterbacks, but they ended up playing in the NFL anyway.


Though the baseball (and football) careers of both Hutchinson and Henson fizzled, Burrell, Mulder, Patterson and Drew all played in the big leagues in 2008. In all, 22 of the 30 first-rounders (or 73.3 percent) in 1998 reached the big leagues, and 14 were still active this season.


The 1998 draft played a prominent role for the Phillies as they won this year’s World Series. Not only was Burrell, who has since departed as a free agent, a prominent member of the team, but so were Lidge, the team’s ace closer who was acquired from Houston prior to the 2008 season, and valuable set-up man Ryan Madson, a ninth-round pick of the Phils in 1998.


On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Pirates endured their 16th straight losing season in 2008 and the 1998 draft was indicative of their continued lack of success. None of the first 14 players the Pirates drafted that year ever played in the big leagues, and the first player that did was someone they didn’t even sign.


With Burrell and numerous other prominent 1998 draft picks either involved in trades or declaring their free agency this year, only four players from the ’98 draft remain with their original teams—Buehrle, Madson, Detroit’s Brandon Inge and Milwaukee’s Bill Hall.


The list of players who did not sign that year is noteworthy, as well, as it includes Teixeira, American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (Orioles, 20th rounder) and former AL Cy Young winner Barry Zito (Rangers, 3rd round). Teixeira lasted until the ninth round of the 1989 draft, but almost certainly would have gone in the top half of the first round had he been more agreeable to signing rather than honoring his commitment to Georgia Tech.


Righthander Mark Prior, a supplemental first-round pick of the Yankees, also went unsigned in 1998. He elected to attend Vanderbilt as a freshman, before later transferring to Southern California. Though he eventually reached the big leagues, only three of the 10 highest unsigned picks that year ever did emerge as big leaguers. Righthander Ben Diggins, a supplemental first-round selection of the Cardinals who opted for the University of Arizona, and Zito, who chose to pitch at USC, were the others.


While the ’98 draft has produced its share of big-league talent, it’s apparent that a number of teams would like a do-over as eight of 30 first-rounders never reached the big leagues and several low-round selections became stars.

For the whole article http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/

Here is how the first 10 picks of the 1998 draft went...

1 - Pat Burrell 1b U of Miami
2 - Mark Mulder LHP Michigan State
3 - Corey Patterson OF HS GA
4 - Jeff Austin RHP Stanford
5 - JD Drew OF St Paul/ Northern League
6 - Ryan Mills LHP Arizona State
7 - Austin Kearns OF HS KY
8 - Felipe Lopez SS HS FL
9 - Sean Burroughs 3B HS CA
10 - Carlos Pena 1b Northeastern

Among others available that year were...
CC Sabathia
Mark Teixeira
Matt Holliday
Barry Zito
Mark Buehrle
Cliff Lee (Cy Young this year)

This was 10 years ago so it has pretty well played itself out regarding draft results. Just goes to show what an inexact science scouting and the draft are.
Last edited by PGStaff
quote:
While the ’98 draft has produced its share of big-league talent, it’s apparent that a number of teams would like a do-over as eight of 30 first-rounders never reached the big leagues and several low-round selections became stars.

PG - thanks for posting that.

I know a little about CC. For starters, he is a fine human being. It might seem obvious now that he would blossom into a great star, but it was far from obvious several years ago. Same for Cliff Lee. Early in his career, CC seemed like a guy who's physical conditioning was going to prevent him from excelling. He was continually going on the DL. Those problems are long gone and he is just one of those guys who is never going to have a svelte body-type when he pitches. Cliff Lee has also suffered from physical and to a lesser extent emotional issues.

One little anecdote I have about drafting comes from the New England Patriots and Mel Kiper. One pre-draft episode on ESPN someone was raving about how the Patriots were brilliant for drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. Mel Kiper correctly noted that if they were in fact that bright, they would have drafted him in the first round Big Grin
quote:
One little anecdote I have about drafting comes from the New England Patriots and Mel Kiper. One pre-draft episode on ESPN someone was raving about how the Patriots were brilliant for drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. Mel Kiper correctly noted that if they were in fact that bright, they would have drafted him in the first round


Just another Flyer pick Cool
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/ makes it fairly easy to find out who made it to the MLB afer signing in a particular draft year. For the 2002 June draft, they have recorded 117/1482 MLB players. Thre are some players who made the show in 2008 but aren't in their list, and I suspect it is only really accurate through 2006, the last year of the Lahman database.

Anyway 117 players matches up well with the 139 that PGStaff quoted for the 1998 draft (eventual MLB players who signed out of that draft), considering that a few more players will be recorded in the next 4 years.

What is interesting to me is the fall off in the number of player who make it from the lower rounds.

Rounds......."made it"
1-10..........83/312
11-20.........25/300
21-30.........5/300
31-40.........3/300
41-50.........1/270

Some (40%, if 2002 is similar to 1998) of these players were drafted again, and perhaps the lower rounds contributed more to the group of player who signed later and made it to MLB. But it does appear that a player drafted in the lower 30 rounds will need a lot to go right in order to make the bigs.
Last edited by 3FingeredGlove
PG

Thanks for the earlier post with the 2002 picks. Even though you know these odds, when you actually look at them together like that, it is eye opening.

I'm going to print this out and show it to my players. Maybe they will work harder in school.

I'm also going to see if I can find what players made it in the rest of the rounds. That should be a big reality check. We tell them all the time but this visual should sink in.
Last edited by wvmtner
The mathematics lead to the next question.

Other than organizational needs/depth, what individual factors do you think separate the ones who get to MLB and those that don't?

Remember, they all have tremendous baseball talent, but can anyone try to isolate some common denominator amongst MLB players that trigger a GM/organization to make the "call-up"?
OLDSLUGGER,

That is an easy one and I think you would agree.

Other than the obvious investment in early round picks... everything else is based on production and to a certain extent makeup. The more production the less important the makeup.

Other than some of the early round investments, players make it by producing at the lower levels. Sometimes one level at a time. "Tools" become secondary, in regards to making it to the top, once the player enters the system.

Then of course there is "need" at the MLB level and there is also a certain amount of luck involved (being in the right place at the right time).

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