Draft question about D1 College players

A senior now has the option to return to school. It’s leverage for a top ten selection (where slot money exists).

On the other hand with the draft now in mid July the minor league season is almost over. It means with the exception of maybe a week or two, assuming the player signs immediately the player who returns for a fourth year is going to be already twenty-three when he starts his pro career in Low A. A player who stays for five years of college ball will be twenty-four.

With only twenty rounds of the draft the players selected are more likely to be legitimate pro prospects. We’re in an era where there aren’t a lot of mistakes made in evaluating prospects. 84% of American MLBers come from the first ten rounds. Another 10% come from the second ten rounds. After the twentieth round players are mostly considered long shots. It’s one of the reasons the draft was cut in half.

Always thought MLB likes the younger guys. This is just nuts. But time will definitely tell how it plays out.

RJM, are you saying leverage is based on eligibility (year in school)  rather than age?  Or is it a combination of the two?  I would think the (same talent level) 21 year old would have more leverage than the 22 year old even if they are the same year in school.

@deuces wild posted:

RJM, are you saying leverage is based on eligibility (year in school)  rather than age?  Or is it a combination of the two?  I would think the (same talent level) 21 year old would have more leverage than the 22 year old even if they are the same year in school.

The greatest leverage is the team spent a draft pick versus the player returning to college. But age has a bearing. Covid may have had a short term effect. But under normal circumstances you don’t see a lot of 26yos in AA. They’re often short term roster filler due to injuries. So, the later a player signs the closer he is to the ceiling and less time he has to prove himself.

AAA: Typical Age range is 23-25.  26+ is old.**

AA: 22-24.  25+ is old.

High-A: 20-23. 24+ is old.

Low-A: 19-22. 23+ is old.

** In AAA you sometimes see older, what are called AAAA players. They’re tweeners (perpetually up and down with MLB) or former MLBers on the way down who might help a MLB team with depth when there are injures.

Dueces Wild you have a pm.

This has been my question as well. Is it better to be younger or is it just the year before your last year in school?  There are a lot of "old guys" now. Do the older covid year guys just lose leverage because they are older? We may not know the answer to this until after this years draft.  

Yeah I’ve been wondering about this, too.  Gonna start to see a lot of 24 year olds or even 25 year olds in low A ball.  Some players are in college for 6 years now (redshirt year, COVID year, 4 years of eligibility)

Better be able to accelerate through the minors quickly or they will 28-29 years old by the time they reach AAA.

This is one of the “silver linings” for the high school classes of 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023:  they will have to sit more as undergraduate players in college but will be 21-22 year old rookies in pro ball.  And/or will enter the workforce following their playing career at 22 with less student loan debt from not sticking around 5-6 years

Deuces wild;

what is your definition of leverage?

The Professional scouts and MLB teams related to the player's 6 tools and game experience to make the draft decisions. Questions: can he play"?

does he know how to win?

A College degree has value.

Bob

A college degree has value. But only about 5% of active major leaguers have one. 84% of American MLBers are drafted in the first ten rounds, another 10% are drafted in the next ten rounds. Most turn pro after junior year.

@3and2Fastball posted:

Yeah I’ve been wondering about this, too.  Gonna start to see a lot of 24 year olds or even 25 year olds in low A ball.  Some players are in college for 6 years now (redshirt year, COVID year, 4 years of eligibility)

Better be able to accelerate through the minors quickly or they will 28-29 years old by the time they reach AAA.

This is one of the “silver linings” for the high school classes of 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023:  they will have to sit more as undergraduate players in college but will be 21-22 year old rookies in pro ball.  And/or will enter the workforce following their playing career at 22 with less student loan debt from not sticking around 5-6 years

Regardless of. Covid I think pro scouts know who’s a prospect by the time they’re twenty-two.  Most conferences where the prospects are only missed part of one season.

My son — a RS junior (Covid year)  turned 22 in September. A couple of people he talked to commented that he would be a little bit older by the time the draft rolls around . He knows he's not a top round pick, but he may have some options. Got his degree last year, so he can go back to school to add some more bells and whistles to the basic degree and play another year of college baseball, or he might get lucky and get a chance at the next level.

He's working hard, making good connection and showing his best stuff when he gets the chance. We just keep telling him to keep as many options open as possible and pick what feels right when he has the opportunity.

Whenever you have choices, it's a good thing.

To answer the OP's question, a draft eligible sophomore is still at least 21, the same as most juniors.  That being said, the several draft eligible sophomores that I know that were drafted, did wait it out another year, and did very well.  If he is drafted higher the next year, as a junior, will depend on how well he plays his junior year   

If this is general question, ok.  If it is pertaining to someone you know, hopefully they have been approached by scouts and possibly advisors if they are being considered for this year's draft.   If the player is a possible 1-5+ rounder, an advisor costs nothing at the moment.  You don't contact advisors....they contact you.

A senior sign with a bonus "that wouldn't even buy a RT plane ticket at today's prices" got the call up several weeks ago.  It happens and everyone is rooting for him! 

On the Baseball Reference site, there is a column that indicates the "age" of the player in relation to the average of the other players at that level.  You probably want to be a "-" rather than a "+" at any level.