Draft Trends

First off, I think the assigned slot values - especially top 5 - have included in them a built-in under-slot bias where a team not only benefits from picking early but is reasonably assured of saving some dollars to aid in signing others.  Saving $100k on some 9th and 10th rounders is nice, but it doesn't add up quickly.  Saving $1-2 million on an early pick gives a team lots of flexibility.

It looks like most of the signability issues are related to guys that are still being offered 7 figures.  While this figure mist start with a "1" instead of a "2" or "3", these kids still need to weigh their options carefully.  If they were thinking $1 million 6-8 months ago and just happened to start climbing since then, are they really going to pass on the $1 million.  

Lastly, saw a comment here that one should go back and re-order the draft based on bonuses.  Some folks think teams should pick the best available still on the board, however I think teams are much more strategic.  If a SS on the best available and the team doesn't need another SS (3-4 good prospects down on the farm), then they might choose a player who is more economical.  Odds are stacked against the vast majority of these kids making it to the MLB for any length of time, so the risk of picking the 8th best remaining available instead of best available - especially after the 2nd or 3rd rounds - is a minor risk IMO.

Still trying to figure out how the Red Sox are going to scrape up enough money to sign Groome.  They didn't save a whole lot of bonus dollars on their #2 pick if memory serves.

BA has an article on that topic

http://www.baseballamerica.com...10-round-pick-signs/

Dominik85 posted:

One interesting Thing is that some top prospects slid a Little but almost no real top guy slid out of the first round. Teams seem to be more willing to take a signability risk. especially the Yankees and red sox took big risks with groome and rutherford. is signability less of an issue now?

 

The assigned slot values removes much uncertainty, so signability is less of an issue. And signability is well-vetted before the draft. Bear in mind many, many deals with draft prospects were made before the draft started, which further reduces the uncertainty.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

 

Still trying to figure out how the Red Sox are going to scrape up enough money to sign Groome.  They didn't save a whole lot of bonus dollars on their #2 pick if memory serves.

Interested to see how this one unfolds, especially with the pre-draft decommit from Vandy and commit to Chipola. I find it hard to believe that Boston did not have an agreed-upon figure in place before the pick.

joemktg posted:

2017LHPscrewball posted:

 

Still trying to figure out how the Red Sox are going to scrape up enough money to sign Groome.  They didn't save a whole lot of bonus dollars on their #2 pick if memory serves.

Interested to see how this one unfolds, especially with the pre-draft decommit from Vandy and commit to Chipola. I find it hard to believe that Boston did not have an agreed-upon figure in place before the pick.

Okey did not have a pre agreement with Cincinnati. I dont think he even spoke with them. It was done 5 minutes before he was called as i suppose it is with many.

I just dont think its the same for everyone and I definetly think Groome had signability issues thats why he slid.

Was the former CBA different in a way that caused more players to not sign?

Groome has issues that's correct.

If Groome doesn't sign this year's 12th pick is replaced with a 13th pick next year. The only loss is one year of a player's development.

RJM posted:

If Groome doesn't sign this year's 12th pick is replaced with a 13th pick next year. The only loss is one year of a player's development.

It can also affect the Red Sox draft because the slot money is lost. Of course they get that money next year but it prevent them from signing some guys this year.

Groome, if signed, will be over slot and therefore does not impair the Red Sox's ability to sign others this year.  The selection of Groome, knowing he would require over slot money, probably had a pretty significant influence on some of their later picks as they had to focus in on some under slot guys.  If they had passed on Groome, they probably would have picked a kid who would have signed at or under slot which would have then provided some opportunity to go after guys in later rounds.  

There was an article in one of the Boston papers of the signing they've already done and how it affects bonuses for other players. Duce managed to sign most under slot. One player was signed for 200k over slot. They believe they have plenty of money to sign Groome. But if he's unreasonable they'll pass.

Groome has the leverage of going year to year in JuCo ball. Had he stuck with Vanderbilt he would have lost the year to year leverage.