I started to post this as a reply to a thread listing 2016 recruits, but realized that would have been hijacking a good thread rightfully celebrating the accomplishments of some amazing baseball players.
As seen at top programs like UVA, TCU and many others, there seems to be a growing trend toward recruiting younger players and I can't get my mind completely around this. Obviously the young men getting recruited are absolute cream of the crop ball players so not taking anything away from them in the least, but programs rise and fall based on the effectiveness of their recruiting classes. Miss on a few key guys each year and you could have problems quickly. And obviously with a rising HS soph, even the best of the best, things can and do change. A catcher with a cannon can unfortunately ding that arm and lose impact, guys mashing the ball all their lives can suddenly struggle as they face tougher HS and club competition, guys who develop earlier and are far ahead of the curve sometimes see the curve catch up to and even begin to pass them by, etc. Maybe not the norm but certainly it happens.
So wondering what happens in those types of scenarios... when the best bat in the region commits to XYU heading into his sophomore year and then inexplicably hits .220 his jr and sr years? And what I'm really trying to get at is, what is driving this trend overall? Hasn't there always been fervent competition among top programs to land top HS recruits? Is there more competition today than 5 years ago such that the best programs are having to 'commit' to recruits earlier? The cynic in me wonders if there is a calculation developing whereby coaches are more willing (or finding it necessary) to be a little more hit and miss on recruiting out of HS... ie "swinging for the fences and not worry so much about strikeouts". After all, there's always a steady stream of seasoned juco talent to backfill any "misses" from the past couple of recruiting classes. And there aren't a lot of freshman cracking the lineup at top programs in the first place. We all know how quickly athletic scholarships can go away unfortunately. Also can't help wondering if the changes in recruiting rules, designed to curtail stockpiling of players, are maybe having an unintended effect on this trend somewhat?
Again, I'm not casting any shadows whatsoever on the talented players who are getting these offers... there's no doubt that these are phenomenal ball players and more power to them as they work their way up the baseball ladder. And NO doubt that it's a lot of natural talent, hard work and serious dedication to developing their games that has earned them these great opportunities. Likewise, coaches at these top programs know exactly what they are looking for and they know the quality and projectability of next level ball players. This is what they do for a living and there's a reason they are coaching the best teams in the country. So not suggesting that coaches aren't making highly considered and educated decisions when they make these offers; obviously they are only trying to recruit guys who will help advance their teams and programs.
I'm just trying to understand what's driving the overall trend toward signing younger recruits;
A) Are HS ball players simply getting better developed earlier and therefor are easier to identify and recruit?;
B) Has recruiting at top programs become even more competitive over the past few years, requiring earlier decisions to land the most promising talent? (and if so, what's driving that verses past years?);
C) Is there some other primary factor(s) driving all the earlier signing activity?
All of the above and more?
All of the above and more?
