MK,
It's great that it worked out well for your family, but based on few stories I've read here on HSBBW in public and private, as well as some local anecdotes from the non-digital world, your strategy carries some risk. If the coach fails to get the kid through admissions, then you're left to scramble to get other applications in, with or without baseball. If my 2017 up going that route, at the very least we'll have the other apps teed up.
I 100% agree with you - I left that part out. We were worried right up till he got the call from the coach and there were many here who helped me with my 1000s of questions at the time. It would have been a scramble for sure but he had time to get applications in and with the common app it's a little easier now. I did hear stories (directly here via PM) from people whose sons did not get in to their top choice after applying ED1.
We did have a list of several more schools (with baseball involved) where he could have applied regular decision and got in - at least in theory based on what I received from Admissions at those schools. He was not as interested in those schools for a variety of reasons (most of which were not baseball related).
None of it is easy, that's for sure.
I think the soundness of this strategy depends a LOT on both the selectiveness of the school and the competitiveness of the student's application for that school. At highly selective schools -- I'm thinking the ones with single digit acceptance rates -- MANY very fine students who apply ED may be deferred to regular decision. Some of them still don't get in via regular decision necessarily. I know of two cases first hand where the students were deferred to regular and then wait-listed. Both were baseball players. Both were "recruited." Both schools are highly selective. One ended up going to the relevant school off the wait list and actually played a fair amount as a freshman. The other decided to go for the big state school experience in the end and gave up baseball. So you never know. You definitely have to have a fall back plan.
On the other hand, the acceptance rates together with the yield rates at some of the less selective schools means an academically strong student athlete has a really good chance of being accepted ED. But then the question is that really and truly the school you want to go to? Is it a school you'd be perfectly happy to be at if baseball doesn't work out -- which it may well not.
No simple formula here.
I was going to give this its own topic but I think it fits here:
The situation is hypothetical as of now, but could be very real very soon.
Bird in the hand:
Offer from strong program in lower level D1 conference. Not a highly selective school academically but good match for intended major, great campus, size, location, etc. Generous merit aid makes it very workable for family.
Bird in the bush:
Good program in fine D3 conference. Very highly selective school academically. A dream school that frankly 2017 would have little chance of getting into without baseball. Great campus, location, etc. No merit aid. Generous need-based aid, but nothing guaranteed until after admission, and likely to be more expensive than bird #1. Coach wants kid, will try to get him through admission (ED), but there's no guarantee.
Fallback plan:
If D1 offer is not accepted, and D3 school doesn’t work out, 2017 would then decide whether to attend state school as student only, or attend very good nearby JC in order to get to next level.
No simple formula indeed.
What would you want your kid to do?