Eligibility Question

Rick at Informed Athlete would be best to ask.

@TPMis he a member here?   If not, i can ask him and then post the answer too.   How do I find Rick?

@Rick at Informed Athlete  (I think now he'll get a notification)

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

@TPMis he a member here?   If not, i can ask him and then post the answer too.   How do I find Rick?

Oh I am sorry thought everyone knew him.

Thanks anotherparent!

Excellent. Ty. Let’s see if he replies.  

Yep, here I am. 

NCAA D1 athletes who were eligible to compete and on a roster during the 2020 Spring season were not charged with a season of eligibility used if they played during that season.  They were also granted an extension of two additional semesters on their "clock."  So they were allowed 12 semesters in which to compete for four seasons with the 2020 season not counting as the use of a season. 

In general, the same applied to almost all 2020 spring sport athletes at any college level, and the same is true of Fall and Winter sport athletes during the 2020-21 academic year - as long as the athletes were on a roster and eligible to compete. 

One other point of clarification about Gunner's original post:  (Many may know this but some others may not.)

The D1 "five-year clock" starts when an athlete first enrolls and starts attending classes while taking a full-time course load.  This is true even if a student started at a college that didn't offer an intercollegiate sports program but was taking a full-time course load. 

Rick

Rick, you are the best!

Thank you!

Thank you @Rick at Informed Athlete.  So the D1 backload due to Covid will be over in 2 years. D3 though got 2021 as well so they will be cleared out in three years I would guess.  

The biggest issue out there for all however is the one time no waiting transfer portal.  

much appreciated.

I don't think it will be that fast because for 2 more years you will have the 2020 redshirt years but you will also have a lot more guys being forced to take a redshirt year than was previously taken.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Thank you @Rick at Informed Athlete.  So the D1 backload due to Covid will be over in 2 years. D3 though got 2021 as well so they will be cleared out in three years I would guess.  

The biggest issue out there for all however is the one time no waiting transfer portal.  

much appreciated.

I never understood this.  To me, it makes sense that the biggest cause of the backlog is the extra year of eligibility due to covid and the downstream impact (i.e. bec of extra year of eligibility, more players forced to take redshirt year).  I can also see some minor impact from the fewer rounds in MLB draft (players that may have left college for MLB with 1 or 2 more year of remaining eligibility are now staying in college another 1 to 2 years and taking up a roster spot).

What doesn't make sense to me is how the transfer portal impacts the backlog.  Assuming there are no extra year of covid eligibility and reduced rounds in MLB draft, even with the no-waiting transfer portal, there is still a finite amount of players floating around in all the colleges, right?  If someone transfers, that just opens up a roster spot somewhere else.  Maybe the no-waiting transfer portal impacts opportunities in top D1 programs, but it should open up more spots downstream, right?  Or are we saying that if the no-waiting transfer portal does not exist, more players would have just quit the game altogether thus opening up more spots for HS kids?

@atlnon I meant the bigger issue in general is the transfer portal.  I didn’t mean it is creating a backlog. I agree with you.  However you bring up an interesting question, is the no wait transfer portal actually leading to more players”quitting” the game ( by not finding new home). Maybe on the margin…. I would think most of the guys not picked up would have been asked off teams maybe?  I have to think well over half in portal don’t find a home and the numbers in the portal have ballooned.  

@Gunner Mack Jr. I actually originally meant it the other way around - that if there are no "no-wait" transfer portal, more kids could be quitting bec they were unhappy and they had no where else to go and no other option beyond riding the pine.  But your point is valid also.  Kids are unhappy, they now put their name in the portal.  But given the huge amount of kids in the portal, maybe they don't get picked up and they lose their current spot (or get pushed out) due to the coach not being happy with the kid putting his name in the portal.  So in the end, maybe the "no-wait" transfer portal could end up creating more spots as a whole?

I don't have experience in college ball yet as my son is a 2023, so I may not know what I'm talking about.

@atlnon I think it’s hard to really know.  Lots of theories.  

I'm guessing 75-90% of the guys in the portal find somewhere to play.  Many of them go down while many of them go up.  The fact that they have proven themselves at a lower level allow them to move up.  And some at higher levels move down to where many should have been to start with.  They are not opening up positions but just changing positions.

I would set the o/u at 50% finding new teams and I would shade the under.  But that’s obviously a guess. I know d1 baseball transfer tracker is not official and is likely missing some new schools but eyeballing (I am not home and can’t dump data) about 33% found new homes.  But also a large number in the tracker were graduate students looking for that extra year. So maybe in normal times you are right with 75%-90%.  There is probably an article somewhere with the data but then again it’s a pretty specific thing to write about.

@PitchingFan posted:

They are not opening up positions but just changing positions.

But they are not taking up positions either, right?  The "no-wait" transfer portal should not be causing the backlog, right?

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

I would set the o/u at 50% finding new teams and I would shade the under.  But that’s obviously a guess. I know d1 baseball transfer tracker is not official and is likely missing some new schools but eyeballing (I am not home and can’t dump data) about 33% found new homes.  But also a large number in the tracker were graduate students looking for that extra year. So maybe in normal times you are right with 75%-90%.  There is probably an article somewhere with the data but then again it’s a pretty specific thing to write about.

I DID dump the latest D1Baseball.com portal data into an Excel sheet, and only 262, or 10.8%, are listed as having new schools.

But Gunner is correct that there is no way to know how many of those 2430 in the portal are Grads fishing for an extra year, or guys who already have other plans but just put their name in on a flyer to see if anything popped up.

Last year, D1Baseball noted the Grad guys, but they're not making that column available this year.

Also remember that the portal shown on D1Baseball.com does not include D2 or D3 players, so the overall numbers are larger.

To be clear when I referenced 750 at new schools I was eyeballing the 2021 tracker, not the 2022.  

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

To be clear when I referenced 750 at new schools I was eyeballing the 2021 tracker, not the 2022.  

Just did the 20-21 portal dump from D1Baseball.com, and there were 2173 total players.

695 (32%) are listed as having a new school, and 505 (23%) are listed as Graduates.

After looking at last years transfer portal, I was surprised that last year there were not as many players that transfered as I thought there actually was.

I think that  movement now is from players wanting to improve their draft stock this year and if it doesn't work out they have a place to play for next year's draft. And quite a few moving up to improve for next year's draft money. And then there is the NIL opportunities.  Perhaps guys with eligibility left but realistically the coaches from smaller programs just don't have money for grad school.

It's really hard to really know what's going on. You won't know until August rolls around

good data for all sports in transfer portal and contains 19-20 and 20-21   Drumroll - 49% find new homes,7% pull out and 43% remain actively looking.  I have to think with not sitting out a year those finding homes was worse in ‘21 due to grad students and others taking flyers

https://www.ncaa.org/sports/20...transfer-trends.aspx

I also see that about 94 names are in both portal lists (2020-21 & 2021-22)  Not sure what's happening there.  Maybe data errors, or maybe didn't find a home last year and re-entered this year?

And, there are several (~20) names repeated within the same year lists.  This would likely have to be some kind of data extraction error...

@T_Thomas posted:

I also see that about 94 names are in both portal lists (2020-21 & 2021-22)  Not sure what's happening there.  Maybe data errors, or maybe didn't find a home last year and re-entered this year?

And, there are several (~20) names repeated within the same year lists.  This would likely have to be some kind of data extraction error...

I think that the player is the one to put their name into the portal and only one who can remove their name, no one else.

@T_Thomas posted:

I also see that about 94 names are in both portal lists (2020-21 & 2021-22)  Not sure what's happening there.  Maybe data errors, or maybe didn't find a home last year and re-entered this year?

And, there are several (~20) names repeated within the same year lists.  This would likely have to be some kind of data extraction error...

If you're looking at the list on d1baseball there will be errors, etc. I know multiple players listed that are on teams. Same with what (if any) team they get on. Most people don't let d1baseball know what teams they end up on.

@TPM posted:

I think that the player is the one to put their name into the portal and only one who can remove their name, no one else.

I believe the players notify their coach, and then either the coach or the school's compliance person is the one who actually makes the entry into the NCAA database.  The players have no direct access to the NCAA site.

@nycdad posted:

If you're looking at the list on d1baseball there will be errors, etc. I know multiple players listed that are on teams. Same with what (if any) team they get on. Most people don't let d1baseball know what teams they end up on.

I know there are data set errors - that's the point I was trying to make.

But, I don't think the players are responsible for notifying D1 Baseball or anyone else when they choose a new school.  That should be done by the receiving school's compliance department.  Obviously, there are a lot of players on the D1Baseball list that actually have new schools and are not reported as such.

@PitchingFan posted:

I don't think it will be that fast because for 2 more years you will have the 2020 redshirt years but you will also have a lot more guys being forced to take a redshirt year than was previously taken.

And I believe that all 2019 grads who attended JUCO got 2 years free eligibikity so if they are now at a D1 or D2, they are athletically a Freshman and academically a Junior starting this fall.  So potentially it will still take 3-4 years for all this to clear itself out if I am not mistaken...

@T_Thomas posted:

I know there are data set errors - that's the point I was trying to make.

But, I don't think the players are responsible for notifying D1 Baseball or anyone else when they choose a new school.  That should be done by the receiving school's compliance department.  Obviously, there are a lot of players on the D1Baseball list that actually have new schools and are not reported as such.

Schools are not notifying d1baseball. To them they are a random website. As an example, son's school has players in the portal. The players that notified d1baseball about where they are going have updated info, kids that didn't, nothing is updated.

Obviously for big name players it's updated. I'm sure Tommy Tanks or Christian Little didn't need to let them know.

@T_Thomas posted:

I know there are data set errors - that's the point I was trying to make.

But, I don't think the players are responsible for notifying D1 Baseball or anyone else when they choose a new school.  That should be done by the receiving school's compliance department.  Obviously, there are a lot of players on the D1Baseball list that actually have new schools and are not reported as such.

Ok yes school's compliance enters their name after the students request. Wording on Wikipedia threw me off.

The NCAA portal is not for public viewing.

The athlete can  withdraw there name at anytime.

D1 baseball has nothing to do with the portal other than having some sort of access from someone and selling subscriptions and for us to keep talking about it.

@nycdad posted:

Schools are not notifying d1baseball. To them they are a random website. As an example, son's school has players in the portal. The players that notified d1baseball about where they are going have updated info, kids that didn't, nothing is updated.

Obviously for big name players it's updated. I'm sure Tommy Tanks or Christian Little didn't need to let them know.

If D1 baseball is going to publish the portal data, either update or delete previous year. 

JMO.

@TPM posted:

If D1 baseball is going to publish the portal data, either update or delete previous year.

JMO.

I  agree because you do need to pay for a d1baseball subscription, but does the transfer portal data where they are pulling from contain info for where players end up?

paging @CollegebaseballInsights seems like an opportunity here ;-)

@nycdad posted:

I  agree because you do need to pay for a d1baseball subscription, but does the transfer portal data where they are pulling from contain info for where players end up?

paging @CollegebaseballInsights seems like an opportunity here ;-)

From a data perspective, we would have similar issues as d1baseball.com.  a couple of years ago, we created an enhanced version of the d1baseball.com transfer portal by including position and graduation class, thus allowing a juco program to quickly identify qualified candidate whom they might want to target.

Since this is behind the d1baseball.com paywall, we shy away from cutting off our nose...

Since the transfer portal is not available for public consumption, our process builds transfer view based on the actual spring rosters.   Note, IMHO this is more accurate and includes all transfers (excluding club ball) within college baseball universe.

For example,

Below is the 2022 player attrition insights for Ole Miss , it shows who from their 2021 roster left and potential reasons why they left.   The current information gap is, "Were the individuals listed in the "reasons for leaving unknown" in the transfer portal .

On the incoming side, we tell you where they came from.

Understanding, the current college recruiting cycle (Jun/July) provides a lot of conversation, it opens up a lot of speculative analytics.

The real outcomes would be available in the following spring.

So yes,  we've been thinking about this for a while, but there are some logistical issues at play.

Good stuff.

I don't think grad students should be in transfer portal because that is a different category.  D1Baseball is way off.  I knew over 30 guys last year in it that had moved on, most before they were listed on there that never had their end destination listed.