Exposure -- by time or ability?

2019Dad posted:

I'm going to use some fantastic advice from PGStaff posted on another thread to frame this topic:

PGStaff posted:

Message to all parents... Find out how talented your son is from someone honest that you trust.  Not how good he is on his team, but how good he really is.  That will tell you what to do and whether you should spend much money.  No showcase, no recruiting service, no one on earth, can help him enough unless he has enough ability.  Not batting average or ERA, but ability!  Even then, there's more to it than ability alone.

My older son is a freshman. Up until now, everything -- wiffleball, little league, travel ball, junior high baseball, high school baseball, his high school travel team -- has been about having fun and getting better at baseball (well, maybe not the wiffleball, that was 100% about fun). 

Recently I find myself running into people who assume that 2019Son is on his travel team for exposure, or asking about tournaments for the same reason. Heck, his high school varsity coach asked me about a tournament this summer as an opportunity for exposure.

This is going to sound unhinged, I suppose, on this board and in this community, but I don't care about exposure -- at least not yet. 2019Son wants to dedicate his summer to baseball. He has very specific goals that he wants to get to by next spring (in terms of velocity, weight, etc.).  We'll see. Anyway, that's going to be the focus, not exposure.

To use a hypothetical pitcher as an example, what is the point of a young kid (say, a freshman or rising sophomore) going to a showcase and throwing 75 or 80 mph? Or a hypothetical middle infielder running a 7.8 sixty? Why would anyone do that? Why not use the dollars (and time) and work on getting better at baseball?

To the old-timers on the board, two questions: (1) when did you first showcase your kid? and (2) was the timing of that a function of age (for example, "well, he's a junior so I guess it's time to showcase") or ability (for example, "hey, he's 85+ from the mound, it may be worth showing")?

Thanks in advance.

I think it is tempting to take a youngster to a showcase and let people see how he is advanced for his age or size or what ever.  However that doesn't work.  Scouts and coaches want right now guys.  They aren't going to project on a 5'10" 150lb kid who throws 80- 82.  They aren't the Kids parents with hopefully thinking and frankly they don't have enough time or ability to look past older and bigger Kids who present "right now" skills.    Also, coaches looking through PG or a.similar site prob aren't going to stop and examine a young, not yet developed, kid with measurables that need to improve.   

You and your son are on the Best course of action.   

Fwiw. You might do a couple of smaller, less expensive, "money grab" showcase just for the experience.  

We did a money grab showcase after his freshman year for exactly the reason TeacherElder said — first to see where he stacked up, because we had never put a radar gun on him and had no idea how fast he was; and second, to get the experience and see what was involved. All we knew was that coaches (those separate third parties that we trust, mostly retired so with no skin in the game) were telling us he had skill and could "play at the next level." But no one wants to quantify that with "he should be a D2 pitcher" or "this kid will never play at anything bigger than the small D3 down the street."

I don't blame them, because too many people would see those words as a promise rather than a reason to work harder, but it's hard when  you're not an expert in this area.

I still don't know where he stacks up. I do know he's having fun and getting better, and occasionally, going to a showcase.

2019Dad.  Despite the advise of many (Don't showcase until you have something to showcase). I took my oldest son to his first showcase at the age of 14 (Jan of freshman year). He was an average HS player with "above average" ability for his age.  I took him for he sole purpose of having a "starting point" for his measurables.  He threw 74 across the infield and about the same off the mound (76 max). His 60 was 7.4.  Up side to this, it was local and only cost $99 and it was one day.  Down side to this, his numbers were posted for all to see.  He didn't have anything to showcase.  Hindsight, I should have had his HS coach or another third party take his measurabls and provide one on one feedback, privately.  He didn't attend another showcase until last summer When he in fact had something to showcase.  FWIW: I'm not making he same mistake with my 2020.  He will be measured/evaluated by private third parties and won't attend a showcase until he has something to showcase (if he wants to).  

Both play/played competitive summer and fall tournament circuits, seperate from individual showcases like PG Sunshine or PBR events. 

Hope his helps. 

Matt

May I add that I think playing competitive travel type ball is a plus, especially for pitchers once in high school?  Here's why.

Kid gets to have fun playing.   

He gets to compete and see where he needs to improve.

He can work during the week on his game while playing ball.  Win/win.

If involved with the right program, he can get the exposure he needs and wants on a budget.   I'll put it this way.  It's $1800 to be a PO with East Coast Baseball.  Drop in for one game and head back out.  Directors are busy talking to the numerous college and pro scouts in attendance about your son, and others.  They are able to say, "Hey, ol' Bobby here", your son wouldn't happen to be named Bobby would he?  Any way, "Ol' Bobby here is struggling with command today, but he's in the process of adding 5 mph to his fastball."  Or, "He's just grown 4 inches."  Or, "He's been working hard to develop a new off-speed pitch."  

The scouts will get the radar readings, plus more personal information, "We expect him to grow to be 10'3".  His mom's an amazon."  "He's one of the hardest battlers we've seen."  "Last week he was 3 mph faster."

You may well not even need a PG showcase for having played on a good summer team.  He'll still play in many of the PG events.

I have better punctuationally, grammmor and spehling in this post since I'm not doing it on my phone.

bballdad2016 posted:

2019Dad.  Despite the advise of many (Don't showcase until you have something to showcase). I took my oldest son to his first showcase at the age of 14 (Jan of freshman year). He was an average HS player with "above average" ability for his age.  I took him for he sole purpose of having a "starting point" for his measurables.  He threw 74 across the infield and about the same off the mound (76 max). His 60 was 7.4.  Up side to this, it was local and only cost $99 and it was one day.  Down side to this, his numbers were posted for all to see.  He didn't have anything to showcase.  Hindsight, I should have had his HS coach or another third party take his measurabls and provide one on one feedback, privately.  He didn't attend another showcase until last summer When he in fact had something to showcase.  FWIW: I'm not making he same mistake with my 2020.  He will be measured/evaluated by private third parties and won't attend a showcase until he has something to showcase (if he wants to).  

Both play/played competitive summer and fall tournament circuits, seperate from individual showcases like PG Sunshine or PBR events. 

Hope his helps. 

Matt

Great, thanks, very helpful. I have radar readings from the mound and a good idea of what his 60 time is.

Funny thing is, his travel team tryouts were like a showcase -- run the 60, pitcher velo in bullpens, infielders got grounder right at you, to your right and left, and slow roller, all while measuring velo across the infield, outfielders were measured on velocity from the outfield, pop times, etc. -- they gathered all these measurables and used them to make cuts, but didn't share the numbers with the kids or parents. 2019Son did learn, however, that there is apparently a lot of standing around at showcases!

What PG said in this quote was exactly how I felt about this as it was important to me to determine just how good he really was.  I had people (parents and coaches from his teams) telling me he was really good, but when I asked "compared to what",  I'd get answers that were simply inadequacy and mostly a comparative to the players he was playing with.  So I figured the only way to test his skill level was to raise the bar and see how he played against players that were way better than the players he's been playing with.  That's where travel ball came into play for us and in choosing one that not only offered a higher level of play but also one that put some emphasis on development.  Though son and I had heard about showcasing, it wasn't something that seemed to present all that much value for us (mostly because we lived in a area where high level teams tend to get good exposure).  In addition to that we were able to choose a private school for HS that not only was a very good college prep school but also had a very high level of athletic development and success.  It wasn't until the end of son's freshman year that I was convinced that was at a level that warranted some focus on recruiting efforts.  I considered showcase events like Perfect Game, but after some study we just couldn't justify additional expenses for such showcasing (we were already stretching our budget for the travel team and the private school). 

As it turned out his travel team signed up a a few "showcase" events.  The coaches of the team pointed out that though the event was set up as a baseball tournament with exposure, the goal of the team was to showcase ALL the players on the team, putting much less emphasis on "winning" at the event.   That was something I really appreciated as a parent as I empathized with parents of players who typically didn't get a lot of playing time under the more competitive environments.  So, it wasn't until after son finish his freshman year that he attended his first "showcase" event.

Other than that, there were only two showcase events we chose to attend for "exposure" purposes, which took place after son's sophomore year.  One was the Stanford Camp in July and the other was Area Code where he was an invitee.  Those were the only two cases where our intent was very much for exposure (though my son found it "fun" to play with and against top level players).  All the other was really for fun and development. (BTW: son was a 2010 HS grad)

PS:  On some further reflection, I now remember one other small showcase event son chose to attended after his freshman year and that was one of Trosky's.  It was a one day showcase event and we were invited to and it was designed for HS Jr's and Sr's.  and son was curious as to what a "showcase" event might be like AND he really wanted to see how his skill set as an underclassman compared to such a group of upperclassmen.  So, it was really nothing more that a curiosity trip to a small local showcase event. 

First showcase was fall before Freshman year. Wasn't too costly and gave him his baseline measureables. Son is one of those players/students who benefits from knowing the process (How a showcase is run), before it really "counts, "i.e. junior year. He got to compare his low measurables (arm strength) with kids that were 2-3 years older in attendance. Son was a raw, though athletic undersized player at this point. 

In addition to working on arm strength (which he improved 16 mph in 2 years), he also sought to strengthen a strength--his 60 time. He was told in that first showcase that 6.89 was really good. So his sophomore year he ran indoor track (not hoops)--learned technique from coach and eventually lowered 60 to 6.4 by junior year (which not surprisingly was recorded in a Florida December showcase in the middle of indoor track season). If he hadn't attended showcases early (and found his speed to be such a recruitable tool), I am not sure he would have run indoor track.

Unlike recruits who pitch 90 or hit consistently 350 ft, we also knew son had time as the high academic schools (which he targeted from start) wait longer to see transcript for several years and test scores. Good luck!

FWIW...

Everything we did was geared around preparing him for the next level, e.g.,

• To get him used to the HS tryout process, we had him participate in 8-10 13U-14U tryouts.
• To get him used to the tryout process for the national travel programs, we had him tryout for the more regional programs.
• To get him used to the college camp environment, we had him go to one very early in his career.
• To get him used to the combine/showcase event, we had him participate in a smaller, more local event.

Served two purposes:

1. It established a frame of reference upon which he could rely as he moved forward.
2. Each event was a comparative exercise.

Quite quickly we were able to ascertain his comparative skill set, as well as identify the weak spots for focused development.

Make no mistake: the PG events blew the door wide open.

I have a theory that showcasing is often more useful for position players than for pitchers--if they have something to show.

A pitcher playing in a tournament game of sufficient importance can attract an audience, and the coaches and scouts can see his whole package--velocity, command, and quality of all his pitches--in a single game. They can tell real quick what he has and if they want him. My son and several of the pitchers on his travel team got multiple offers on the strength of single game performances in front of the right people without ever attending showcases.

It was different for the position players. It seemed that coaches wanted to check more boxes with position players, and no one game seemed to create opportunities for the coaches to see everything they wanted. No matter how good a game they had, they always wanted to know if they can make one more type of play or how they handle one more type of pitch.

One particular player especially comes to mind in this regard. We who saw him all the time knew he was a top player, with excellent character, work ethic and academics, but it seemed to take forever for the school he was most interested in to come around to realizing it. 

I just looked him up, and he never did a PG showcase. He did end up with a pretty good ranking, but if I remember right, his ranking rose very late, after making all-everything his senior year and someone on this board asking Jerry why he wasn't ranked better.

In retrospect, I think he would have been well served to have showcased because he had plenty to show. 

He finally won over the coach at his preferred school at the very end of summer before his senior year. If he hadn't been real patient, real sure of his preferred school, and real confident, he might have settled for a lesser school.

He went on to have a truly great 4-year college career and is now in MiLB. 

Like others, son's first showcase was summer after Freshman year, which was just last summer. It was a local showcase that was relatively inexpensive, but run by a reputable group in our region. Here are my thoughts in hindsight.

1. Our goal was to get initial measureables and let him have a "practice" run at a showcase. Prior to this, he had no idea what a showcase was or what he would be doing. It was a great learning experience, but his lack of understanding of the process, what was being measured and how things would be run, really showed. I tried to prepare him based on my research, but it would have been best to actually do some practice runs of the 60, etc. At least he will be prepared from this point forward.

2. The results from that showcase, along with video, lives on the internet forever. He is not particularly happy with the results, but it was a good lesson and motivation for him to do better next time.

This summer (as a rising Junior) is planned to be a big summer for him. He'll be playing in 3 showcase tournaments with his club team and participating in 2-3 showcases. However, we'll only do the showcases if it looks like he'll do well. I don't see the point in spending the money if he is going to be a middle of the pack type of kid. As a LHP, my understanding, from talking to people way more knowledgeable than me, is that his timeline for recruitment has a little more leeway than a RHP. There always seems to be a spot for lefty pitchers somewhere, assuming they aren't throwing 80. We'll work with his club coach to make a final determination about the showcases this summer.

FWIW, our top HS pitcher is a junior. He has gone to zero showcases and hasn't really played much tournament ball since he started high school. Maybe one tournament and nothing PG related. He is lefty sitting about 85 mph. Even with his lack of exposure, he is listed as a top prospect by our regional showcase group and scouts are starting to come to our HS games. He's had little exposure and "they" are still finding him.

What PG says is correct.  Fish in the right pond.  Go where the schools on your player's vetted list will be.  Don't waste time or money going anywhere else unless it's purely for the fun or experience of it.

My 2012 and 2016 both did a low cost camp as rising Sophs.  Got them experience with how a showcase or college camp is run.

Good topic 2019.

Two sons - I'm not sure the older one is a good example for today, because the time line is so different as I've explained in other threads.

For the younger one (2011 HS - and yes, the time line has changed even more since then), the only showcase he ever attended was one run by his travel team - NorCal Baseball.  He did it after his sophomore year in HS and only because they asked all of their players to do so.  He had a good HS sophomore season in a very competitive varsity program, but we knew his velocity was average at best.  Something like 84.  For a smallish (5-10) RHP, I didn't expect anything to come from it.

And nothing did.

The rest of the summer was playing on an excellent travel team that included 4 eventual 1st round draft picks (3 out of HS, 1 out of college).  He/we just focused on getting better against great competition.  16U USA Baseball tournament in AZ and other highly competitive tournaments and vs. other good teams.

We did not send him to other showcases.  Why not?  I knew, that for someone to recruit him they would have to spend a little time to figure out why they should recruit him.  It wasn't likely at all to happen from blowing 84/85 past good HS players in 2-3 innings at a showcase.  He had an excellent HS coach and and excellent travel program and we thought they would do some of the legwork to explain why he was worth their time.

And they did.

Ultimately he was recruited by 5 or 6 schools.  They were all schools that spent the time to figure him out.  The PC for the school that he ended up choosing asked me early what showcases he would attend?  I answered 'probably no more' and received a puzzled look back - but then I explained why and he seemed fine with it - and kept recruiting him.  The next thing I knew that PC was showing up at his travel games during the summer.

I do believe our (my?) strategy was a good one in finding a group of schools that knew what they were getting and in the end they were all good choices and good fits.  I do not think a showcase woulda helped him and may have in fact, hurt him.

He 'committed' to his eventual school early in his Junior HS season - but he/we told no one except his travel and HS coaches (and other coaches who had recruited him) and he had one of the two most successful and fun baseball  seasons he ever had...all with a little secret held inside.

Hope that helps.

My son has a late April birthday (actually tomorrow) and had always played up a year from 9U thru 12U, meaning he could be 5 days short of 2 years younger than some of the kids.  He was also small for his age.  Fortunately he was a baseball junkie by the age of about 6.  He and another friend (almost same age and size) went to a camp at a D1 here in Ohio the summer after their 8th grade year.  It was a camp...coaches worked with kids, etc....not just a showcase, but the "big name" coaches were there.  They were the only 2 kids there that were 8th graders and by far the 2 smallest kids.  An assistant from an SEC school saw us waiting around before the camp started and came over to talk.  The kids about peed their pants.  Fortunately he took a liking to them and spent at least 3 hours of the 8 hour first day with them.  There were top level HS juniors there from all of the big name HS's here in Ohio....teams that made my son and his friend envious when they saw them walk in with those jerseys on.  The SEC guy put them at SS and 2B while the big guys were batting.  They held their own.  He talked to me afterward for about 20 minutes.  Said he was impressed to see 2 kids that age/size that weren't afraid to go up against the older kids.  They obviously didn't get any real looks that day, but they left knowing that they could play.  From that point on my son had no fear of playing older kids (started HS as a freshman).  He also had no thoughts of playing anything other than D1.....and it ended up working out.  I guess I would suggest a camp type setting for a younger kids then showcase later.   As others have said, 70mph by a freshman isn't going to get noticed....unless of course he is 6'2 and 180.   Good luck

Allow me to say why we do showcases for underclassmen, even some kids as young as 13 or 14.

There's no question that one of the reasons we do those is so our business profits.  However there are other good reasons involved.  We want data, as much as we can produce.  We want to compile a history on as many players as possible.  This history then becomes a tool we can use for projection.

Dan Jennings former GM and Manager for the Marlins was a scouting director for the Rays years ago.  He called me to talk about a player one day and I told him we planned to start doing events for kids that were still a few years away from becoming draft eligible.  He said, why, we don't care about kids that young and we don't have the ability to follow them.  I said, You should care!  Once again he said, Why?

So I gave him an example of two pitchers both draft eligible that were very similar in most every way. During the last year your scouts saw both of them throwing 93mph, with a good breaking ball and average command. Both were 6'2 and similar body type.  Which one would you choose first in the draft?  He said, we would figure it out.

I went on to tell him, what if you had a 4 year history on each pitcher?

pItcher A was 5'8 and throwing 75 mph 4 years ago

pitcher B was 6'1 and throwing 85 mph 4 years ago.

pitcher A was 5'10 and throwing 82 mph 3 years ago

pitcher B was 6'2 and throwing 90 mph 3 years ago

pitcher A was 6'0 and throwing 87 mph 2 years ago

pitcher B was 6'2 and throwing 92 mph 2 years ago

Now they are both HS seniors

pitcher A is 6'2 and throwing 93 mph

pitcher B is 6'2 and throwing 93 mph

Who would you think will be better next year?  If you had to guess, which one has the better work ethic?  Which one is the most projectable.

I will never forget Dan's answer, he didn't say pitcher A or B.  He said Jerry I think you're on to something here.  When I heard Dan say that I knew we were going to move forward.  Dan Jennings is not someone you can fool about baseball.

We have been compiling information ever since.  We now have kids that we first graded a 6 that are now 10s.  And we noticed from years past that some kids we only saw once when they were freshman or sophomores that we gave lower grades to, that have since pitched in the Big Leagues.

So the whole idea behind MLB following or scouting younger players might have started back then.  After all, we do have several MLB clubs that purchase access to our database in addition to the scouting service (Crosschecker). It makes it so much easier for them to add that information to their own database.  I think some draft decisions are made these days based on knowing more about the history of players.

The same information is helpful to colleges.  

I agree PG.  As a math-oriented/engineering person, more data is a very good thing in this case for MLB clubs.  Perhaps they should subsidize/pay for that data they're trying to collect from our sons?

As a parent, however, I have to balance MLB's need to have that data with my understanding of my son and what he really was...and my wallet.  If I was 6-4 myself and he had a realistic chance of growing a bit more, I can see where it might(?) be worth it.  Even then, I'm not too sure.  But that wasn't the case.

So I used my own assessment and other factors to make decisions that I'm awfully satisfied about where it got our younger son.

Allow me to say why we do showcases for underclassmen, even some kids as young as 13 or 14.

There's no question that one of the reasons we do those is so our business profits.  However there are other good reasons involved. - PGSTAFF

You have got to love the sincerity here.  I know I am off topic, but I remember the quote from Dr. Andrews about having to perform 36 TJ surgeries.  I'm thinking one of them might have been Luzardo.  He is a guy that has 20 PG events and clocked by PG at 93 mph back in July 2015 (I think he is up a few mph since) that has since gone under the knife.  Does anyone really think PGSTAFF is responsible for this kid throwing close to 100 mph and as a result had to get TJ surgery?  Yes - there is a profit motive (motive may not be the best choice - maybe saying PG is not a non-profit is better) and because PG runs the best overall program, kids like Luzardo happen to get in their system.

I prefer kids mature a little more before flying off to Atlanta or Ft. Myers to get gunned at 75 mph or baselined at 7.5 for the sixty (somewhat different for kids traveling locally), but at least PG seems to be above board.  The simple fact that PGSTAFF hangs out here (a site that is known to bash scammers and "instructors" promising the moon) ought to reflect well on him.  If you read the comment carefully, PGSTAFF is somewhat selfish in wanting to get more data.  He says he selfishly wants more data on younger players while charging to do so - all above board.  With that said, I once again say it is my opinion that parents are responsible for their children in all aspects of their child's life.  Please don't blame abusive travel ball coaches, much less PGSTAFF, for some kid having to get TJ surgery - take responsibility as a parent.  If an abusive travel ball coach "caused" it, then the correct wording as a parent is "I allowed an abusive travel ball coach to harm my child".  

My son joined a showcase team or travel team that did tournaments with colleges coaches in attendance (whatever you want to call it) after his soph year of high school. The teams of this nature pursued him. The coaches of the 16u teams of these programs were familiar with him from 16u ball and recommended him to the 17/18u team. The travel team also recommended he participate in two specific individual showcases. 

With the 16u exposure had programs not pursued him after soph year I would have figured it was too early. After freshman year he did a local college showcase for $125 just to get a feel for the process.

2019Dad,

You've got it right. I like your approach and the questions you are asking  There will come a time when you know he is ready, but it takes a lot of time getting him ready for the right showcasing opportunity.  Every post in this thread I agree with and understand in their own context, but everybody is different.  Understanding those differences and when your son is ready is the key.  Fish in the right pond as one poster said.  I would do this to optimize my exposure and focus my dollars where it is most efficient.

To answer your question....My oldest son starting showcasing when he was a rising freshmen in high school.  His travel team won the 16U 2008 PG WWBA in East Cobb when he was a rising sophomore.  He was the starting pitcher in the semi-finals and got the complete game "W".  He pitched a great game.  You'd think the phone would ring off the hook or his travel coach would be contacted by a hordes of college coaches.   Not so much.  Sure a handful of college coaches did reach out, kept in touch, or kept him on their recruiting lists....but in hindsight it was not the right time.  The "market" opened his junior year.  So, in understanding your son's skill level you also need to understand when those schools will be looking for recruits like your son, and where and how they recruit.  It is a very diverse "recruiting market" out there.  Once you find those great fits, I always suggest contacting other schools in the same conference.

Good luck!

PGStaff posted:

Allow me to say why we do showcases for underclassmen, even some kids as young as 13 or 14.

There's no question that one of the reasons we do those is so our business profits.  However there are other good reasons involved.  We want data, as much as we can produce.  We want to compile a history on as many players as possible.  This history then becomes a tool we can use for projection.

Dan Jennings former GM and Manager for the Marlins was a scouting director for the Rays years ago.  He called me to talk about a player one day and I told him we planned to start doing events for kids that were still a few years away from becoming draft eligible.  He said, why, we don't care about kids that young and we don't have the ability to follow them.  I said, You should care!  Once again he said, Why?

So I gave him an example of two pitchers both draft eligible that were very similar in most every way. During the last year your scouts saw both of them throwing 93mph, with a good breaking ball and average command. Both were 6'2 and similar body type.  Which one would you choose first in the draft?  He said, we would figure it out.

I went on to tell him, what if you had a 4 year history on each pitcher?

pItcher A was 5'8 and throwing 75 mph 4 years ago

pitcher B was 6'1 and throwing 85 mph 4 years ago.

pitcher A was 5'10 and throwing 82 mph 3 years ago

pitcher B was 6'2 and throwing 90 mph 3 years ago

pitcher A was 6'0 and throwing 87 mph 2 years ago

pitcher B was 6'2 and throwing 92 mph 2 years ago

Now they are both HS seniors

pitcher A is 6'2 and throwing 93 mph

pitcher B is 6'2 and throwing 93 mph

Who would you think will be better next year?  If you had to guess, which one has the better work ethic?  Which one is the most projectable.

I will never forget Dan's answer, he didn't say pitcher A or B.  He said Jerry I think you're on to something here.  When I heard Dan say that I knew we were going to move forward.  Dan Jennings is not someone you can fool about baseball.

We have been compiling information ever since.  We now have kids that we first graded a 6 that are now 10s.  And we noticed from years past that some kids we only saw once when they were freshman or sophomores that we gave lower grades to, that have since pitched in the Big Leagues.

So the whole idea behind MLB following or scouting younger players might have started back then.  After all, we do have several MLB clubs that purchase access to our database in addition to the scouting service (Crosschecker). It makes it so much easier for them to add that information to their own database.  I think some draft decisions are made these days based on knowing more about the history of players.

The same information is helpful to colleges.  

Speaking of data, someone posted earlier that 30 pitchers (2020's, 2019's and even one 2021) were between 80 - 86 mph over the weekend in 14U PG Invitational. It was mostly a local tournament. I can only imagine the numbers in the national tournaments later in the summer. I also know of 2020 who touched 91 yesterday. Who knows what it all means but kids are definitely throwing harder than ever sooner than ever. Hopefully, the pitch smart guidelines will help protect their arms. 

hshuler posted:

Speaking of data, someone posted earlier that 30 pitchers (2020's, 2019's and even one 2021) were between 80 - 86 mph over the weekend in 14U PG Invitational. It was mostly a local tournament. I can only imagine the numbers in the national tournaments later in the summer. I also know of 2020 who touched 91 yesterday. Who knows what it all means but kids are definitely throwing harder than ever sooner than ever. Hopefully, the pitch smart guidelines will help protect their arms. 

Then the data is showing that the increase in arm injuries will continue to increase.  The physical facts are that 2019's and younger don't have their growth plates fused yet and throwing at those velocities on a regular basis is simply a recipe for injury at an early stage.  Apparently, strict guidelines are needed.

Truman posted:

hshuler posted:

Speaking of data, someone posted earlier that 30 pitchers (2020's, 2019's and even one 2021) were between 80 - 86 mph over the weekend in 14U PG Invitational. It was mostly a local tournament. I can only imagine the numbers in the national tournaments later in the summer. I also know of 2020 who touched 91 yesterday. Who knows what it all means but kids are definitely throwing harder than ever sooner than ever. Hopefully, the pitch smart guidelines will help protect their arms. 

Then the data is showing that the increase in arm injuries will continue to increase.  The physical facts are that 2019's and younger don't have their growth plates fused yet and throwing at those velocities on a regular basis is simply a recipe for injury at an early stage.  Apparently, strict guidelines are needed.

Agreed - hopefully they will be universally enforced by all sanctioning bodies. 

There is no way to track all TJ surgeries.  But something very few people know is that in professional baseball TJ surgeries peaked in 2012 and have been decreasing since then.  In fact, some are trying to figure out why so far in 2016 there have been so few.

Of course, this doesn't really mean much yet.  There could be a big increase over the next 6 months.

No matter what, it is still a good thing that people are doing things to improve safety.

For my 2016, his first showcase was freshman year. As KandK mentions it was our travel teams coach's thought that it would be good experience. In retrospect however, if you don't run fast or throw hard, it can do more harm than good. Everyday 2016 lost a bit of confidence that day with poor measurables. Keep the pressure off as long as you can. Just play ball and work at getting better in your own comfort zone.

It's interesting how this thread has changed directions.

It started with a very good question from a parent requesting information to help decide the best time for his son to start attending showcases.

It is shifting to discussion of the value of longitudinal data for baseball execs and other decision makers in the baseball world.

What baseball wants and what's best for individual players don't always coincide.

For the overwhelming majority of parents--the ones whose children aren't pro prospects and who don't show college-level tools until late in their high school years--early showcases may not help create the college opportunities they seek.

Looking at the hypothetical Player A/Player B scenario offered by PGStaff through the eyes of the parents of these two players instead of the eyes of a baseball exec facing a draft decision, it's possible neither player would have faced diminished opportunities by waiting until junior year to showcase, and it's likely Player B would have had better opportunities by waiting.

Outstanding post swampboy!!

One coach told me that the first time he sees a player, he starts a file. If it's a good first sight, file stays on top. If it's bad, it goes to the bottom and it's tough to get him to reopen it. 

There have been some very talented 14u local kids that attended PG showcases, their grades were around a 7.  This isn't to say they aren't talented 14u players but when being compared to grown 18 year old men it's hard to compete to get a good projection grade.

I personally know a 2016 who attended his first PG Showcase December of his Freshman year, he got a grade of a 7.5.  He attended December of his sophomore year and received a grade of 9.5! He attended another showcase December of his Junior year and got a 10 and the D1 offers rolled in.  He attended 2 more his senior year.

He said he did so many showcases to get his numbers down, that he would go in with a plan to focus on his pop, or focus on his 60 time, he always had a plan.  On his main page his best pop time is from 2013, his best outfield speed was 2016 and his best 60 time was 2015.  Going early didn't seem to hurt this kid because it showed he improved over time and the final picture showed he was VERY capable.

Swampboy posted:

...What baseball wants and what's best for individual players don't always coincide.

For the overwhelming majority of parents--the ones whose children aren't pro prospects and who don't show college-level tools until late in their high school years--early showcases may not help create the college opportunities they seek....

 

If you only read one part of this thread, this is some solid advise and probably applies to 95% of HS players.

CaCO3Girl posted:

There have been some very talented 14u local kids that attended PG showcases, their grades were around a 7.  This isn't to say they aren't talented 14u players but when being compared to grown 18 year old men it's hard to compete to get a good projection grade.

I personally know a 2016 who attended his first PG Showcase December of his Freshman year, he got a grade of a 7.5.  He attended December of his sophomore year and received a grade of 9.5! He attended another showcase December of his Junior year and got a 10 and the D1 offers rolled in.  He attended 2 more his senior year.

He said he did so many showcases to get his numbers down, that he would go in with a plan to focus on his pop, or focus on his 60 time, he always had a plan.  On his main page his best pop time is from 2013, his best outfield speed was 2016 and his best 60 time was 2015.  Going early didn't seem to hurt this kid because it showed he improved over time and the final picture showed he was VERY capable.

yea, the question becomes can he play? As I have gotten closer to the college game and know many kids personally who are part of it I am already being jaded by what I see.

It isn't for the weak and you had better want to be there badly, from there you better pick a program you fit into and school you are comfortable with...and then you hope the coach stays for your time there, assuming you wanted it bad enough and were told the truth and you were player they thought you might be...stay healthy, confirm that the commitment is worth the rewards - you could have an amazing experience!!

Sadly me and some other guys from old boys network here have started booking bets with each other based on if a kid will make it, if they will play, what year they will transfer... it is kind of sad actually but seeing some of the schools that some of the boys I know are committing to play for - I believe there are several train wrecks in the process of happening.

you have to really want it - a nice set of times and rating won't help you a little bit once you enroll.

kandkfunk posted:

 

FWIW, our top HS pitcher is a junior. He has gone to zero showcases and hasn't really played much tournament ball since he started high school. Maybe one tournament and nothing PG related. He is lefty sitting about 85 mph. Even with his lack of exposure, he is listed as a top prospect by our regional showcase group and scouts are starting to come to our HS games. He's had little exposure and "they" are still finding him.

You have to be careful with this notion, though, that if you have the talent, "they" will find you. This may be true if you're in a major metro area or near colleges. This is definitely not true for many others. I've mentioned it before, but we had a RHP last year who never attended a showcase or tournament of significance. He spent summers on a local team playing local tournaments. He sat 87-88 touching 90 on several occasions. 96 K's / 8 BB's and a 0.60 era. Fantastic secondary stuff. Not an ounce of interest. he ended up playing for the local J.C., but that was mainly because the J.C.'s HC's son was his teammate, so he saw him plenty. This same coach also told him not to pitch over the summer at all. I wonder why?

As to timing. My son attended a college camp during Christmas break of his freshman year. At the time he was 6'3" / 170 lbs. and throwing 82-85. He didn't attend his first showcase until that summer. Actually, I never really even thought about doing a showcase until I thought he had something of interest.

CACO3GIRL - I personally know a 2016 who attended his first PG Showcase December of his Freshman year, he got a grade of a 7.5.  He attended December of his sophomore year and received a grade of 9.5! He attended another showcase December of his Junior year and got a 10 and the D1 offers rolled in.  He attended 2 more his senior year.

He said he did so many showcases to get his numbers down, that he would go in with a plan to focus on his pop, or focus on his 60 time, he always had a plan.  On his main page his best pop time is from 2013, his best outfield speed was 2016 and his best 60 time was 2015.  Going early didn't seem to hurt this kid because it showed he improved over time and the final picture showed he was VERY capable.

I would suggest this is a reason to NOT do multiple showcases starting when you are a freshman.  To begin with, getting a baseline 60 as a freshman is pretty easy - grab your coach and head out to the football field.  You will know whether speed is one of your tools long before you get an actual 60 timed.  If I saw these stats over time (ignoring the final values for the time being - I assume they are all still pretty good), I would think the kid was slowing down - I'd be looking at his height/weight progression and see if he was starting to get fat (best pop 2 years prior, best 60 last year, best Of arm this year as he bulked up???). As a coach, I am not going to recruit a catcher based on his pop time from 2 years ago - especially if it is heading south - and documented accordingly.  I can only guess that he wanted to get drafted and that is why he did two more his senior year.  If I have my figures correct and all of these were PG, then I assume he dropped $3,000 over the course of 36 months (assume he had zero travel expense).  Maybe the senior year showcases got him into the school he wanted, but I highly doubt either the freshman or sophomore showcases had much impact (other than to demonstrate slower times).

Also, while grad year is very important as you approach the summer after your junior year, you should take into account your son's physical maturity.  While age is certainly one factor (and this can easily vary by 18 months from youngest to oldest in any graduation year), other factors are important also.  When you read about some 6-3 225lb rising sophomore heading out to a showcase, please take a moment to consider their progression on the maturity scale.  I would suggest that there can be an additional 12 month lag (in the early years) in physical maturity - add that to the underlying age gap and we are talking about some kids being 2+ years "older".  No complaints here, but simply stating a fact and saying that sometimes you need to wait another 12-18 months and not try to "keep up" with the Jones' post-pubescent 14 year old.  Save some money along the way and make your list before selecting the showcase (avoid the expectation of shotgun exposure - shoot enough buckshot and you are sure to hit something - good or bad).

2017LHPscrewball posted:

CACO3GIRL - I personally know a 2016 who attended his first PG Showcase December of his Freshman year, he got a grade of a 7.5.  He attended December of his sophomore year and received a grade of 9.5! He attended another showcase December of his Junior year and got a 10 and the D1 offers rolled in.  He attended 2 more his senior year.

He said he did so many showcases to get his numbers down, that he would go in with a plan to focus on his pop, or focus on his 60 time, he always had a plan.  On his main page his best pop time is from 2013, his best outfield speed was 2016 and his best 60 time was 2015.  Going early didn't seem to hurt this kid because it showed he improved over time and the final picture showed he was VERY capable.

I would suggest this is a reason to NOT do multiple showcases starting when you are a freshman.  To begin with, getting a baseline 60 as a freshman is pretty easy - grab your coach and head out to the football field.  You will know whether speed is one of your tools long before you get an actual 60 timed.  If I saw these stats over time (ignoring the final values for the time being - I assume they are all still pretty good), I would think the kid was slowing down - I'd be looking at his height/weight progression and see if he was starting to get fat (best pop 2 years prior, best 60 last year, best Of arm this year as he bulked up???). As a coach, I am not going to recruit a catcher based on his pop time from 2 years ago - especially if it is heading south - and documented accordingly.  I can only guess that he wanted to get drafted and that is why he did two more his senior year.  If I have my figures correct and all of these were PG, then I assume he dropped $3,000 over the course of 36 months (assume he had zero travel expense).  Maybe the senior year showcases got him into the school he wanted, but I highly doubt either the freshman or sophomore showcases had much impact (other than to demonstrate slower times).

All good points 2017, just to clarify his 2013 pop was 1.88, current is 1.91, but I do think he wants to be drafted. 

Only for the experience did my 2018 attend a PG Showcase & College Camp in the Fall of his Sophomore year (Sept 2015).  Son was 5'9 155; we knew his measurables weren't quite there, but, he can play, and he's determined to play in college.  Son's determination and passion made it easy to justify the cost of attending both Showcase and Camp.  Wife and I thought it would help prepare him for his recruiting journey.

And, he has improved. Since the September 2015 Showcase & Camp 2018 has grown an inch and gained 15lbs from his strength program.  His IF velo has gone from 78 to 85, and his Exit velo has gone from 80 to 86. He made his HS Varsity team and joined his 2016 brother as a starter.   

My son has truly utilized his Showcase and Camp experience as insight and motivation.  Son was disappointed with his grade by PG, but he knew he could do better, he knew he had to. He wants to play college ball.  Son used the PG web site to show me lots of kids have gone from a 7.5/8.0 to 9.0/10.0 over a one and two year period.

He's now focused on reps and preparing for his summer tournaments.  I think he's understanding that it is a process.  He'll be attending his next Showcases and Camps July through Sept.  He knows what to expect.  

Here are my thoughts on this. Anyone can take exit velocities, mound velo, positional velo, 60 times, pop times etc.  I get the laser timed 60 may be more accurate.  And maybe you are using a pocket radar from behind for exit velo rather than a stalker from the front.  So there may be some variation. But generally you have a good idea where your son stands. And until my son fits in well with others who showcase he simply won't do it. Right now it serves no benefit for him. However I will say that by junior year he will probably showcase for better or for worse. Because at that time of things aren't the best he will need something verified to use with lower level programs just to give him the best shot at playing in college. So let's say you are throwing 82 as a junior. Not much to brag about. But might be just enough to get that d3 a state over to take a flyer on you. Or at least take a look.  PG would know best obviously but that's how I see it. 

roothog66 posted:

kandkfunk posted:

 

FWIW, our top HS pitcher is a junior. He has gone to zero showcases and hasn't really played much tournament ball since he started high school. Maybe one tournament and nothing PG related. He is lefty sitting about 85 mph. Even with his lack of exposure, he is listed as a top prospect by our regional showcase group and scouts are starting to come to our HS games. He's had little exposure and "they" are still finding him.

You have to be careful with this notion, though, that if you have the talent, "they" will find you. This may be true if you're in a major metro area or near colleges. This is definitely not true for many others. I've mentioned it before, but we had a RHP last year who never attended a showcase or tournament of significance. He spent summers on a local team playing local tournaments. He sat 87-88 touching 90 on several occasions. 96 K's / 8 BB's and a 0.60 era. Fantastic secondary stuff. Not an ounce of interest. he ended up playing for the local J.C., but that was mainly because the J.C.'s HC's son was his teammate, so he saw him plenty. This same coach also told him not to pitch over the summer at all. I wonder why?

I totally agree Root. We are not a baseball school, but we are in a major metro area. More people around to talk about kids. I don't think this approach would work for any other player on our team. I just find it interesting that most of us on here are spending our time and money trying to develop a plan, and some kids just need word of mouth.

bballdad2016 posted:

Swampboy posted:

...What baseball wants and what's best for individual players don't always coincide.

For the overwhelming majority of parents--the ones whose children aren't pro prospects and who don't show college-level tools until late in their high school years--early showcases may not help create the college opportunities they seek....

 

If you only read one part of this thread, this is some solid advise and probably applies to 95% of HS players.

+1....good post Swampboy.

FWIW - and this is purely anecdotal - I grew up with several super stars in the 13-15 year old age range.  I was not one of them.  By the time all of us were 16-17 and juniors in HS, the subset of area players that were considered potential college players shifted dramatically to a different group.  I can't think of many of those 13-15 yo studs that were still the best players late in their high school careers.  Some weren't even starters.

So although my experience is slightly outdated, I'll echo the sentiment of others on the thread who have pointed out that fall of junior year through spring of senior year (even into the summer) is a key time period. 

Matt Reiland posted:

bballdad2016 posted:

Swampboy posted:

...What baseball wants and what's best for individual players don't always coincide.

For the overwhelming majority of parents--the ones whose children aren't pro prospects and who don't show college-level tools until late in their high school years--early showcases may not help create the college opportunities they seek....

 

If you only read one part of this thread, this is some solid advise and probably applies to 95% of HS players.

+1....good post Swampboy.

FWIW - and this is purely anecdotal - I grew up with several super stars in the 13-15 year old age range.  I was not one of them.  By the time all of us were 16-17 and juniors in HS, the subset of area players that were considered potential college players shifted dramatically to a different group.  I can't think of many of those 13-15 yo studs that were still the best players late in their high school careers.  Some weren't even starters.

So although my experience is slightly outdated, I'll echo the sentiment of others on the thread who have pointed out that fall of junior year through spring of senior year (even into the summer) is a key time period. 

It depends on the player's potential. Anything beyond post junior year summer is too late for a D1 mid major. For a higher level D1 waiting until post junior year could very well be too late. Into fall of senior year is ok for D3. Later than fall of senior year is risking (high risk) walk on status.

roothog66 posted:

kandkfunk posted:

 

FWIW, our top HS pitcher is a junior. He has gone to zero showcases and hasn't really played much tournament ball since he started high school. Maybe one tournament and nothing PG related. He is lefty sitting about 85 mph. Even with his lack of exposure, he is listed as a top prospect by our regional showcase group and scouts are starting to come to our HS games. He's had little exposure and "they" are still finding him.

You have to be careful with this notion, though, that if you have the talent, "they" will find you. This may be true if you're in a major metro area or near colleges. This is definitely not true for many others. I've mentioned it before, but we had a RHP last year who never attended a showcase or tournament of significance. He spent summers on a local team playing local tournaments. He sat 87-88 touching 90 on several occasions. 96 K's / 8 BB's and a 0.60 era. Fantastic secondary stuff. Not an ounce of interest. he ended up playing for the local J.C., but that was mainly because the J.C.'s HC's son was his teammate, so he saw him plenty. This same coach also told him not to pitch over the summer at all. I wonder why?

Did the JC HC tell him not to pitch the summer prior to his freshman or sophomore college season?  I wasn't sure if that was rhetorical...but why would a JC HC tell a pitcher not to pitch in the summer?  I'm honestly curious...