I know this will probably start a fight, but here goes. What do you guys think is an acceptable % of first pitches that are swung at?
I understand there are many factors that go into this question.
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Remember Eddie Murray statement - "you will get only one good pitch each time At bat" It maybe the 1st one.
If runners on base and your "3 run HR hitter" is up and the pitch is a fast ball down the middle - ABSOLUTELY!
The "3 run HR hitter" is a special hitter with special coaching.
There are 4 situations in a game that determine the final outcome.
Bob
Originally Posted by IEBSBL:
I know this will probably start a fight, but here goes. What do you guys think is an acceptable % of first pitches that are swung at?
I understand there are many factors that go into this question.
It’s a damn shame if a question like that starts some kind of melee.
When you say “% of 1st pitches”, can you be more explicit about what you mean? FI, do you mean 5 of all 1st pitches or only 1st pitch strikes?
And, how do we judge what “acceptable” means? Do you measure % of 1st pitches swung at, and if so what does your data show? If not, why are you asking the question? Is it because you think your guys are swinging at too many or too few?
As a hitter, it depends on how many first pitches are in my wheelhouse. 
Depends.. Are you a top of the order hitter who can work the count/see a number of pitches? (may take a pitch). Are you the power hitter/RBI who is prone to strikeout (may want him swinging at first good one he sees). Some coaches go in "take mode" if his team is chasing a run or two and the starter has racked up a number of pitches. A bottom of the order guy may need to have a few attempts to catch up to a fastball; taking a good first pitch may not be beneficial. I would tend to think that when a pitcher has lost control, such as throwing several balls in a row, take until you get a strike. Watching HOF, now Phillies Mgr. Ryne Sandberg for years when I lived in Illinois.. he was known for taking the first pitch in the AB.
These are just a few of the factors.
The first ball - fast ball approach has value but should not be confused with chasing one down or just off the plate.
If you want to go up there at 0-0 and take a 2-0 or 3-1 approach and zero in on location and pitch and come out of your shoes if you get it then that is fine. But just taking a swipe because it is a fastball is terrible and you see a lot of rollover grounders and pop ups on balls out of the zone by being overly aggressive.
My curiosity got the better of me. I looked up my son's HS games on Gamechanger from this spring. Although they have not uploaded all of the games, there are 16 games, 48 at bats/61 plate appearances listed right now. The numbers break down like this:
61 plate appearances
Of those:
16 first pitch swings
Of those:
5 hits
5 foul balls
4 swing & misses (2 were to cover runner stealing)
1 fly out
1 groundout
But I'm not sure how data like this can help unless you compare apples to apples. He hits in the 3 hole and does not always get a first pitch fastball. As you know, 9 hole hitters are often pitched to differently. And as others have stated, there is a lot more to think about.
Agree situations will dictate.
However mostly depends on the pitcher.
If he's good and has good stuff and control.
Don't get behind in the count. Jump on it.
It's not about swinging at the first pitch. At the high school level (and lower), my approach is to hit the first fastball that is in the strike zone, including the edges. The likelihood is that may be the first pitch. That is probably the best pitch you will see before the off speed stuff and the umpire's crappy zone take over.
Originally Posted by NYdad2017:
My curiosity got the better of me. I looked up my son's HS games on Gamechanger from this spring. Although they have not uploaded all of the games, there are 16 games, 48 at bats/61 plate appearances listed right now. The numbers break down like this:
61 plate appearances
Of those:
16 first pitch swings
Of those:
5 hits
5 foul balls
4 swing & misses (2 were to cover runner stealing)
1 fly out
1 groundout
But I'm not sure how data like this can help unless you compare apples to apples. He hits in the 3 hole and does not always get a first pitch fastball. As you know, 9 hole hitters are often pitched to differently. And as others have stated, there is a lot more to think about.
I plan to look at the the numbers when I get a chance, but I'm pretty sure how it's going to play out. My kid is a soph who started the year in the 7-hole. He moved to the 2-hole when a senior was injured. He did well there for a while, but then started to struggle and the senior came back, and now he's in the 6 hole. He's always tended to take a lot of pitches, and his coaches tell him to see a lot of pitches, but I'm guessing that his BA is at least 100pts. higher when he goes after the first pitch he sees, and I'm guessing that it's at least 150pts. higher when he does that when in the 6 or 7 hole because, like you say, you see a lot more 1st pitch fastballs, and fastballs in general, when you hit down in the order.
I always felt like my son did better when he jumped on the first good pitch he saw I ran across this article a few weeks ago
Originally Posted by therookie:
I always felt like my son did better when he jumped on the first good pitch he saw I ran across this article a few weeks ago
I know my son is a big believer in that. But an at bat doesn't always go that way, right? Some pitchers love their breaking balls. But throw too many and you'll hang one at some point. I know he's swung first pitch at a few hangers.
Originally Posted by NYdad2017:
Originally Posted by therookie:
I always felt like my son did better when he jumped on the first good pitch he saw I ran across this article a few weeks ago
I know my son is a big believer in that. But an at bat doesn't always go that way, right? Some pitchers love their breaking balls. But throw too many and you'll hang one at some point. I know he's swung first pitch at a few hangers.
Well that's really at the core of it, isn't it? The numbers will say that you have a better average at 0-0, even better at 2-0, and a worse average on 0-2, but swinging at any old 2-0 fastball doesn't earn you a hit. The point is to swing at the first mistake you see, whether that's a 0-0 hanging curve or an 0-2 fastball that catches too much of the plate.
Too bad it's so much easier said than done.
Originally Posted by NYdad2017:
My curiosity got the better of me. I looked up my son's HS games on Gamechanger from this spring. Although they have not uploaded all of the games, there are 16 games, 48 at bats/61 plate appearances listed right now. The numbers break down like this:
61 plate appearances
Of those:
16 first pitch swings
Of those:
5 hits
5 foul balls
4 swing & misses (2 were to cover runner stealing)
1 fly out
1 groundout
But I'm not sure how data like this can help unless you compare apples to apples. He hits in the 3 hole and does not always get a first pitch fastball. As you know, 9 hole hitters are often pitched to differently. And as others have stated, there is a lot more to think about.
Great stuff, but I don’t think an individual has a lot to do with the OP. What do the numbers look like for all the players?
Here’s what all the players in all our games look like on the various pitches when the PA was over.
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A good swing at a hitter's pitch is a hard hit ball.
Originally Posted by Go44dad:
A good swing at a hitter's pitch is a hard hit ball.
Sounds good, but how does one measure it in such a way that the results are valid? I know I’ve seen a lot of good hitters swing at a “hitters” pitch and miss it, foul it off, or hit it weakly just as often as hitting it hard.
Originally Posted by JCG:
Originally Posted by NYdad2017:
My curiosity got the better of me. I looked up my son's HS games on Gamechanger from this spring. Although they have not uploaded all of the games, there are 16 games, 48 at bats/61 plate appearances listed right now. The numbers break down like this:
61 plate appearances
Of those:
16 first pitch swings
Of those:
5 hits
5 foul balls
4 swing & misses (2 were to cover runner stealing)
1 fly out
1 groundout
But I'm not sure how data like this can help unless you compare apples to apples. He hits in the 3 hole and does not always get a first pitch fastball. As you know, 9 hole hitters are often pitched to differently. And as others have stated, there is a lot more to think about.
I plan to look at the the numbers when I get a chance, but I'm pretty sure how it's going to play out. My kid is a soph who started the year in the 7-hole. He moved to the 2-hole when a senior was injured. He did well there for a while, but then started to struggle and the senior came back, and now he's in the 6 hole. He's always tended to take a lot of pitches, and his coaches tell him to see a lot of pitches, but I'm guessing that his BA is at least 100pts. higher when he goes after the first pitch he sees, and I'm guessing that it's at least 150pts. higher when he does that when in the 6 or 7 hole because, like you say, you see a lot more 1st pitch fastballs, and fastballs in general, when you hit down in the order.
Think about this.
The coach tells him to see a lot of pitches?
If they're strikes he won't see many, because he'll on the bench in a heartbeat.
Originally Posted by Everyday Dad:
Originally Posted by JCG:
Originally Posted by NYdad2017:
My curiosity got the better of me. I looked up my son's HS games on Gamechanger from this spring. Although they have not uploaded all of the games, there are 16 games, 48 at bats/61 plate appearances listed right now. The numbers break down like this:
61 plate appearances
Of those:
16 first pitch swings
Of those:
5 hits
5 foul balls
4 swing & misses (2 were to cover runner stealing)
1 fly out
1 groundout
But I'm not sure how data like this can help unless you compare apples to apples. He hits in the 3 hole and does not always get a first pitch fastball. As you know, 9 hole hitters are often pitched to differently. And as others have stated, there is a lot more to think about.
I plan to look at the the numbers when I get a chance, but I'm pretty sure how it's going to play out. My kid is a soph who started the year in the 7-hole. He moved to the 2-hole when a senior was injured. He did well there for a while, but then started to struggle and the senior came back, and now he's in the 6 hole. He's always tended to take a lot of pitches, and his coaches tell him to see a lot of pitches, but I'm guessing that his BA is at least 100pts. higher when he goes after the first pitch he sees, and I'm guessing that it's at least 150pts. higher when he does that when in the 6 or 7 hole because, like you say, you see a lot more 1st pitch fastballs, and fastballs in general, when you hit down in the order.
Think about this.
The coach tells him to see a lot of pitches?
If they're strikes he won't see many, because he'll on the bench in a heartbeat.
Or he could lead the team in hitting because he attacks good pitches in his ABs.
I'm all for working pitchers and seeing a lot of pitches if the P is nibbling or painting corners, but a hitter's job is to hit the ball hard, which usually is a result of putting a good swing on a pitch he can handle. If that is pitch #1 in your AB, don't miss it.
I believe in cutting and hacking from the on deck circle!! Be aggressive. As others have stated never hit a pitchers pitch with a fresh count but if its there rip it.
That was my point as well redbird.
The approach to take pitches is never a good idea.
If that first pitch is good. crush it.
Originally Posted by redbird5:
If that is pitch #1 in your AB, don't miss it.
Definitely this. If hitters are facing a pitcher with known tendencies (first ball fastball down the middle)....go get that pitch! Same deal if you know a pitcher always throws 3 and 4 batters a get-me-over curveball, stroke that sucker.
The higher the level, the fewer "good pitches" you're going to get to hit. Even Ted Williams, who by all accounts was Mr. "take the first pitch", said he would go up looking for a first ball fastball if he knew the pitcher was going to "groove" one to him.
One more thing: If you see a manager/pitching coach go out and have a conference, look for that fastball down the middle on the next pitch. Unless the pitcher is really struggling to throw strikes, more often than not you're going to get a gift. Don't miss it.
Big issue with the guys I sit with at HS games.
The 1st pitch is often the only hittable pitch as deeper in the count you are at the mercy of the umpire's widely varying zones (a different discussion).
Personally, Son was hitting middle of the order and crushing it, 2 weeks ago he was moved to leadoff as the other players tried there reallky struggled.
Also, in HS the 1-2 batters get an extra at-bat each game (4 vs3)
Consensus, Fans liked move.
however,
it has been negated by having to take 1-2 pitches to start the game so players see the opposing P stuff.
Puts one in quite a hole.
Then the requests to bunt started.
Bit odd to have best power hitter sac/squeeze bunt and hit a grounder to 2b to move over a runner later in games.
So average has suffered for what it's worth though still at/shared top in team RBI
Advice to son was 1st good pitch hammer it.
As other's said, it is often the only good one and pitchers know most kids aren't allowed to swing at the 1st pitch so usually right down Broadway.
True Story:
I asked Charlie Silveria the old Yankees catcher about Ted. He told me the story of catching for the Tigers [traded from Yankees] and Ted at bat. Ed Rommel was the umpire and the 1st pitch down the middle. Rommel said "ball". Charlie turned and looked to the umpire with a question?
Rommel said "shut up
"Charlie these people came to watch Williams hit not you catch"!
Yes, the umpire, the coach, the pitcher, the opposing manager and your preparation
play a role in your 1st pitch hitting.
Visual success in your approach". "Look for the red seams on the ball".
Bob
2009-2012
Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:
Originally Posted by Go44dad:
A good swing at a hitter's pitch is a hard hit ball.
Sounds good, but how does one measure it in such a way that the results are valid? I know I’ve seen a lot of good hitters swing at a “hitters” pitch and miss it, foul it off, or hit it weakly just as often as hitting it hard.
Sorry, not interested. Bait someone else.
Originally Posted by GHHS-2016LHP:
One more thing: If you see a manager/pitching coach go out and have a conference, look for that fastball down the middle on the next pitch. Unless the pitcher is really struggling to throw strikes, more often than not you're going to get a gift. Don't miss it.
Yes, and that's why they real answer is "it depends." Last week 2019Son was batting second. The first hitter of the game was hit with the first pitch of the game, just barely brushed his uniform. As you might expect, 2019Son got a first-pitch fastball right down the middle. That situation is almost like a 3-0 count, just without the take sign from the coaches. 
Overall, I fall into the "be ready to hammer the first pitch" school, with the exception that I have a soft spot for when a leadoff hitter in the game works, like, an 8-pitch at bat, and his teammates get to see the pitcher's repertoire.
Originally Posted by Go44dad:
Sorry, not interested. Bait someone else.
What is it that I’m supposedly baiting you for? You made the statement not me, so how is anyone supposed to measure it to judge the credibility of the statement, or should everyone just assume every good swing at a hitter’s pitch always produces a hard hit ball?
Have the courage to at least attempt to support your convictions with some kind of evidence rather than try to make the problem the person challenging you.
Originally Posted by GHHS-2016LHP:
Definitely this. If hitters are facing a pitcher with known tendencies (first ball fastball down the middle)....go get that pitch! Same deal if you know a pitcher always throws 3 and 4 batters a get-me-over curveball, stroke that sucker. …
What percentage of HS pitchers do you really believe call their own pitches, making their tendencies valid? Now if you scout a pitcher on team “A” on Friday and you know the guy calling the pitches is his coach and you’re gonna play that same team next Friday, that’s one thing. But if you scout him while he’s pitching for team “A” but you’re playing him while he’s on team “B” with someone different calling the pitches, it’s something else again.
Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:
Originally Posted by GHHS-2016LHP:
Definitely this. If hitters are facing a pitcher with known tendencies (first ball fastball down the middle)....go get that pitch! Same deal if you know a pitcher always throws 3 and 4 batters a get-me-over curveball, stroke that sucker. …
What percentage of HS pitchers do you really believe call their own pitches, making their tendencies valid? Now if you scout a pitcher on team “A” on Friday and you know the guy calling the pitches is his coach and you’re gonna play that same team next Friday, that’s one thing. But if you scout him while he’s pitching for team “A” but you’re playing him while he’s on team “B” with someone different calling the pitches, it’s something else again.
Why do you believe pitchers have to call their own pitches to have tendencies (coaches have tendencies too)? What area do you live in that allows HS players to move from team "A" to team "B" during the season?
Originally Posted by GHHS-2016LHP:
Why do you believe pitchers have to call their own pitches to have tendencies (coaches have tendencies too)?
I believe I said that.
What area do you live in that allows HS players to move from team "A" to team "B" during the season?
Almost every good pitcher around here plays on a HS team and at least 2 different teams during the year, so if you go by his tendencies during the HS season in the summer or vice-versa and the same person isn’t calling the pitches, it’s a fool’s mission counting on tendencies. But even on a HS team pitchers often move between the FR, JV, and V teams during the season, and there always someone different calling the pitches on each team.
Look, I’m not saying pitchers don’t have tendencies because they do. What I’m saying is, I doubt those tendencies can be counted on, or even that there’s many people tracking such things at the HS level.
Actually, you specified HS pitchers...which is how I framed my response.
Quick story: recently, GHHS Jr faced a very tough young LHP (Jr is also a lefty). Well, this kid was OWNING the boy with a very good curveball in the 1st 2 at bats. Well, when it came time for AB #3, guess what Jr was looking for? Yep, 1st ball bender....he hit one of the longest home runs he's ever hit. Knowing tendencies and making adjustments (and having the skillset to do something about it) can often be the difference in getting to the next level.
Quick story: recently, GHHS Jr faced a very tough young LHP (Jr is also a lefty). Well, this kid was OWNING the boy with a very good curveball in the 1st 2 at bats. Well, when it came time for AB #3, guess what Jr was looking for? Yep, 1st ball bender....he hit one of the longest home runs he's ever hit. Knowing tendencies and making adjustments (and having the skillset to do something about it) can often be the difference in getting to the next level.
Interesting discussion. My son has always been a pretty aggressive hitter. So this past summer, when he was playing in a summer collegiate league, I decided to track it. In approximately 160 ABs (usually batting in the middle of the order), he swung at the first pitch almost 18% of the time, hitting .450 (for the season he hit around .315). His best count, by far, was 1-0. Ironically, he did not do particularly well in traditional hitters counts (2-0, 3-1), I think because his eyes got too big!
there is a time and a place for all hitters to be swinging and taking...couple RBI out there with a big hitter or somebody who is hot at the time is not a place to take a strike, down 2 or 3 leading off late innings might good time to think about taking one.
Bottom line is IMO seldom should the middle of your line up not be swinging at a first pitch fast ball in the wheelhouse or close to it. The top and bottom of the lineup has many more variables as I see it.
"You only get three strikes. Why would you ever watch a good one go by?" Coach Ray Tanner
Originally Posted by GHHS-2016LHP:
Actually, you specified HS pitchers...which is how I framed my response.
Quick story: recently, GHHS Jr faced a very tough young LHP (Jr is also a lefty). Well, this kid was OWNING the boy with a very good curveball in the 1st 2 at bats. Well, when it came time for AB #3, guess what Jr was looking for? Yep, 1st ball bender....he hit one of the longest home runs he's ever hit. Knowing tendencies and making adjustments (and having the skillset to do something about it) can often be the difference in getting to the next level.
Before responding I have to admit to something. I just noticed that I’ve been confusing you with Go44dad. My bad. That’s the trouble with responding to multiple people at the same time.
Yes, I specified HS pitchers, but I wasn’t thinking only pitching in HS games. A pitcher who pitches for his HS team in the spring and a travel team in the summer is still a HS pitcher. At least that’s how my mind sees it.
I’ve never said pitchers don’t have tendencies. In fact, pitchers who have obvious tendencies often find themselves in various degrees of trouble as they get to higher levels. However, I maintain that in amateur ball, far more often than not it isn’t a “pitcher’s” tendency on pitch selection, but rather whomever is calling the pitches. Pitcher tendencies to me would be more along the line of dropping the arm angle on certain pitches, or throwing a sinker in obvious FB situations rather than a 4 seamer.
Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:
I’ve never said pitchers don’t have tendencies. In fact, pitchers who have obvious tendencies often find themselves in various degrees of trouble as they get to higher levels.
how is anyone supposed to measure it to judge the credibility of the statement?
Have the courage to at least attempt to support your convictions with some kind of evidence rather than try to make the problem the person challenging you.
Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:
I just noticed that I’ve been confusing you with Go44dad.
Well, my only response to that is that Go44dad must be a damn good looking man!
Anyway, back to the discussion....what was it again? Oh yeah, 1st pitch swinging!
I still maintain if you feel comfortable/confident as a hitter, there's absolutely nothing wrong with squaring up the first pitch (if it's the pitch you're looking for). Nobody is saying get up there and hack at the first offering, no matter where it's located.
If a player (or a team) takes every first pitch in every at bat, folks are going to notice and that team is going to be behind in the count more often than not.
Originally Posted by GHHS-2016LHP:
Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:
I just noticed that I’ve been confusing you with Go44dad.
Well, my only response to that is that Go44dad must be a damn good looking man!
Anyway, back to the discussion....what was it again? Oh yeah, 1st pitch swinging!
I still maintain if you feel comfortable/confident as a hitter, there's absolutely nothing wrong with squaring up the first pitch (if it's the pitch you're looking for). Nobody is saying get up there and hack at the first offering, no matter where it's located.
If a player (or a team) takes every first pitch in every at bat, folks are going to notice and that team is going to be behind in the count more often than not.
GHHS....I clean up well...
Originally Posted by skraps777:
Interesting discussion. My son has always been a pretty aggressive hitter. So this past summer, when he was playing in a summer collegiate league, I decided to track it. In approximately 160 ABs (usually batting in the middle of the order), he swung at the first pitch almost 18% of the time, hitting .450 (for the season he hit around .315). His best count, by far, was 1-0. Ironically, he did not do particularly well in traditional hitters counts (2-0, 3-1), I think because his eyes got too big!
Your thinking pretty much parallels mine on measuring aggressiveness(see attached), but it’s amazing just how many different definitions people come up with.
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Originally Posted by Go44dad:
how is anyone supposed to measure it to judge the credibility of the statement?
Have the courage to at least attempt to support your convictions with some kind of evidence rather than try to make the problem the person challenging you.
Obviously you’ve never seen the Babe Ruth Story starring William Bendix.
Now that you’ve sunk to the level of 6 YOs repeating what the other person says in an argument, I’ll concede that you win the battle.