I’ve scored 382 HSV spring games. In all those games there were 4,822 hits. 978 of them(20%) came on the 1st pitch(0-0) count, more than on any other count.
Should HS players be more patient or less?
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Interesting stat. How big is the differential between 1st pitch hits and other counts? Within the margin of error?
You need to summarize all the stats to include balls put into play. Were the balls put into play on the first pitch more likely to result in a hit?
Can't answer your question without yield comparisons. Everyone sees 0-0, so raw total pitches seen will be the highest for any count. What are the out vs hit ratios for each count? That would exclude foul balls on 2 strike counts.
Are there some letters missing on your keyboard...?
Of course there are more hits with an 0-0 count, 100% of the hitters start with that count. With each pitch thrown, your pool of hitters will diminish.
So does that mean 80% swing and miss, swing and hit foul, or just look? In any case, that means 80% are delaying the game longer than necessary. Multiplied by 39 or 42 outs per regulation game - it adds up. Yes, it's facetiously stated. I think there's a video somewhere of Mo Vaughn stating it simply - "See the ball, hit the ball" ;-)
I see at least a few people gave the question some thought, and that’s a good thing. In response to those who think other things could/should be included and/or looked at, all I can say is there are many way to look at just about any metric one can think up. Since I wasn’t trying to prove anything one way or the other, I didn’t bother trIn response to those who think other things could/should be included and/or looked at, all I can say is there are many way to look at just about any metric one can think up. Since I wasn’t trying to prove anything one way or the other, I didn’t bother trying to prove anything to the Nth degree to cover any and all questions. The truth is, that particular stat is left over from something that was really hot stuff some years back, BA on count. Now-a-days it’s rare for anyone to use that metric, but there are still parts of it that can be useful.
This one came out of a continuing discussion about how if the previous batter got a hit it could be “infectious”. I didn’t believe it when I began looking, but as you can plainly see, for whatever reason one hit follows another more often than pure chance. Please see attached.
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Yeah, that's not at all plain to see in that chart, though I think I've figured out what all that says now.
Hits should occur more often after hits, given that hits will be more likely to be given up by lesser pitchers (whether due to talent or fatigue), so giving up a hit is, in a vacuum, an indication that a pitcher is more likely to be hittable at that point in time.
As an analgous situation, MLB batting performance (batting average, but also other stats) are inversely related to the number of outs in an inning. Not having recorded any outs in an inning (again, in a vacuum) can mean that the innings just started, or it can be a bad sign that the pitcher's losing it. Having recorded 2 outs in an inning already is an indicator that the the guy pitching has things under control.
Steve A. posted:Are there some letters missing on your keyboard...?
ROFLMAO
Yeah, this is kind of analogous to Benford's Law.
Do you have any stats on what percentages of hits where in the air versus ground ball?
See attachment. That's as close as I get to computing percentages on it.
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"True Story"
During a MLB All Star game, Ted Williams asked Mickey Mantle a question. "Mick when you hit left handed is your right hand stronger and when you hit right handed is your left hand stronger"?
What happened?
After this question, Mickey went into a two week slump, thinking about Ted's question.
What is the role of the hitter? SEE THE BALL!!!!!!!
BOB
Matt13 posted:Yeah, this is kind of analogous to Benford's Law.
What does Tim "the Tool Man" Taylor have to do with baseball esoterica? I am guessing there might be 1 or 2 connections but start losing steam at 3 or more......
Stats4Gnats posted:Should HS players be more patient or less?
High school and lower the only pitch thrown for a hittable strike more than a first pitch is a ball three pitch. I always encouraged the kid to be ready to pull the trigger first pitch. I mean what are pitchers told from day one? Get ahead in the count. It's not rocket science.
I've always taught my son to be aggressive at the plate. If he sees something getting close enough to hit, hit it. But the problem sometimes with this approach is the pitchers/coaches are also learning as much as the hitters. Once the pitchers understand the hitter is aggressive and hitting on first pitch they're probably not going to throw first pitch fast ball strikes most likely they're going to go to their off speed breaking balls. So hit anything that comes close enough to put a bat on.
Florida State Fan posted: I've always taught my son to be aggressive at the plate. If he sees something getting close enough to hit, hit it. But the problem sometimes with this approach is the pitchers/coaches are also learning as much as the hitters. Once the pitchers understand the hitter is aggressive and hitting on first pitch they're probably not going to throw first pitch fast ball strikes most likely they're going to go to their off speed breaking balls. So hit anything that comes close enough to put a bat on.
I happen to agree except for a couple things. Unless the pitcher has complete control to throw what he wants, it’s up to whoever is calling the pitches to figger out what’s going on and call pitches accordingly. Also, there’s a difference between a “cookie” 1st pitch FB strike and a well-executed 1st pitch FB strike.