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Height, Age vs Velocity - Results

CADadCADad5,000+ posts
After looking at the inputs several different ways the way the data seemed to best fit reality was to put both height and velocity into a third order equation and then use that to plot velocity vs. height for given ages. If someone wants to I can send them an image of the plot and they can upload it and send me the url and I'll then add it to this post.

Please be aware that this data reflects a fairly elite pitcher. For example a 5'10" just turned 13yo is predicted to cruise at 69 mph. This is within a couple mph of the hardest throwing pitcher in this year's LLWS (who would have just turned 13) and probably typically for a very good select pitcher of that age.

Results:

Increase in velocity from age:
(No height increase)
12 to 13 ~ 3.3 mph
13 to 14 ~ 4.0 mph
14 to 15 ~ 4.0 mph
15 to 16 ~ 3.4 mph
16 to 17 ~ 2.0 mph
17 to 18 ~ 0 mph

Increase in velocity due to height:
(No age increase)

12yo .65 mph/in
13yo .61 mph/in
14yo .58 mph/in
15yo .70 mph/in
16yo .76 mph/in
17yo .76 mph/in

What does this mean?
If your player doesn't grow for a year he could still expect to get the velocity increases over that year as shown above. If your player also grows a few inches as is normal you can also expect some additional velocity gains.

For example a pitcher who goes from 13yo to 14yo and grows 3" during that time would be expected to have a velocity increase of about 4.0 mph due to maturity and an additional increase of a little under 2 mph due to increased height for a total increase of about 5.8 mph.

Another example would be a pitcher who goes from 17 to 18yo and grows 2". No increase due to age would be predicted but a 1.5 mph increase would be predicted due to a gain in height.
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Bighit15Bighit155,000+ posts
Ca,

Interesting study. It doesn't take into account training,fitness and nutrition. some guys just grow differently.

Example: A player that I followed was at 84-85 in September after his 17th birthday(jr year). The following fall at Jupiter PG WWBA tournament he was 91. That was one year and 1 month later(sr year). He was 94 in the spring of his senior year. Everybody is different. Training was the difference in this kids velocity.
CADadCADad5,000+ posts
PG & Bighit,
Both right. Like anything statistical it is just an overall trend and can't be expected to predict any one individual's progress. Because of the source of the data I'd say that it reflects pretty good mechanics going in and a fair amount of training.

However, it isn't going to account for the player who becomes significantly more fit, successfully embarks on a rigorous arm strengthening program or who makes a significant improvement in their mechanics.

In addition the results tend to be a bit suspect on the low and high ends of the data since we didn't have players older than 18 in the data base or players younger than 10. This type of curve fit will tend to level out at the high end and low end of the data. Even so I'd say that small increases after 17yo are more the norm than large increases even though a local DIII pitcher went from mid 80s to mid 90s while he was there.
Last edited by CADad
gratefulgrateful1,000+ posts
I think most pitchers make significant increases in velocity between 16 and 18, whether or not they train properly, simply due to physical maturity (ie. 3-sport HS athletes who only throw spring/summer). Training though the year, obviously, can help make that increase even more pronounced.

In my experience as a small college coach, I think the average college pitcher will increase his velocity at a rate of 1-2 mph per year. I was not dealing with the nation's premier pitchers, but some of these guys were pretty good pitchers, a few of whom were drafted after college.

After age 17, I would also say that their body type (lanky vs. stocky) will have an impact on future increases in velocity. That, as we know, is what scouts call 'projectability'.
CADadCADad5,000+ posts
One reason for putting this together was to see where my son fit on the curves. When he turned 13 he was about 4 mph below the curve for his height. If he ends up at about 6' when he turns 17 he'd be cruising at about 80 mph. Pretty typical for a HS pitcher, however if he wants to go beyond HS as a pitcher or be an above average HS pitcher he'll have to do something to pull himself ahead of these curves or develop a heckuva change up and excellent command. Preferably, all of the above.
CADadCADad5,000+ posts
Rollerman,
There wasn't anywhere near enough information at the lower ages for that to make sense. 12yo was the earliest I was willing to use and even that is probably a bit off. On the other end although there was a bit more data I probably shouldn't have included the 17 to 18yo changes as they are too close to the end of the data and therefore tend to artificially level out. Although the gains from 17 to 18 are typically fairly small and in line with what grateful has mentioned, they aren't zero and there isn't usually enough of a height increase to account for the typical velocity increase from 17 to 18 years of age.
Last edited by CADad

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