Originally Posted by Bum:
Edgar. Bum, Jr. pitched against a few of those D1 guys in Washington and did pretty well. But I hear what you're saying.
I thought I remembered reading that Bum, Jr. Was a Washington pitcher! We're in KingCo 4A.
I thought about your post and it's possible I succumbed to the natural human tendency to remember the better pitchers more. It's not like I actually averaged velocities or anything, just a general feeling that the vast majority of pitchers threw somewhere in the 80-85 range (with the inevitable couple in the 90 range) at Varsity in that league. Then I realize I am thinking pretty much of starting pitchers only, and pretty much only RHP at that (LHP in our league were easily 5 mph slower on average last year, mostly used in middle relief, and most were able to succeed even though throwing slower than most RHP). My generalizing in the first place was probably not a very helpful response.
I'll put it this way: when my son was a freshman, as a RHP, he sat 79-83 and touched 85, with a good curve and a show-me change (which he has since improved - I would add that to my advice to the OP: keep working on that good change, it's a really underrated pitch, especially in HS). He was a couple inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than the OP as a Frosh, with a bit more velocity but otherwise what seems like a similar arsenal. His team was stacked with Juniors and Seniors, and a fair number of pitchers (several PO's). He got a good look, but never saw Varsity. Now, had he been on one of 2-4 other teams within the same league, he might've been in their Varsity rotation.
As it is, he was one of three primary starting pitchers on JV (two by the end of the season), hit in the three hole all year, and caught every game he didn't pitch. He got WAY more time and experience at JV than he would've at Varsity (if he'd made V, he would have seen a few innings as a backup C or 3B, but mostly sat and served as a bullpen catcher; he might've gotten a few mop-up innings). Last year, as a soph, he was an everyday starter at either 3B (shared with the KingCo 1st team 3B), DH, or pitcher. That team had SEVENTEEN seniors, and 9 pitchers, 7 of them POs (my son and the other 3B being the only two-way players), and spent most of the year ranked as a top ten 4A team in the State. This year, he'll be the only returning Varsity pitcher. If he was coming in as a freshman THIS year, he would easily make Varsity, probably in the starting rotation. Context is everything.
The OP to me seemed a little undersized - not for a freshman, but for a V player - but with a great attitude and good stuff if as reported. At many, maybe even most schools, he'd have a shot, but might want to consider whether playing V is what's best for his development (though if there are good local summer programs, I wouldn't worry too much about that as summer is the bigger part of most players' development these days). At others, depending upon the quality of competition in his league and on his own team, he probably won't. If I were the OP's Dad, I'd advise him to look really carefully at his competition and realize that upperclassmen with similar skill sets will almost always get the first chance. Compete and play hard, keep that good attitude, and good things will eventually come - maybe sooner than later!