High School Sports in 10 years

My two cents.....

I think high school sports will be vastly different in 10 years mostly due to the CTE concussion issues with football (in general) and some other sports.  I question whether football will be as popular or with as many participants in 10 years.  Call me crazy as football is the most popular sport today, but I see a big "chink" in their armor and it can't continue with business as usual in the NFL, college and high school. levels.  Lacrosse is growing quickly and soccer is really taking root in the US and growing in popularity among todays youth.  There are only so many athletes in a particular high school, so students will have choices beyond football.

If you read the papers, and watch Frontlines: "League of Denial the NFLs Concussion Issue" then I think it is easy to see my point.  Parents are going to think twice about letting their kids play football.   This is scary stuff, and if I'm a parent (or grandparent) with young kids this has my full attention and consideration.

As always, JMO.

The other problem with hs sports is kids who aren't going to play much just quit.  Some quit sports and others go to one of those alternate sports you just mentioned.  Then there is this 'hipster' thing.  Sports aren't cool.  Part of it I suppose is healthy and understandable.  Is the football team going to show up in mass for the art exhibit?  Pribably not.  So why should we go to the football game?  Kind of a valid point.  The average age of the baseball fan keeps increasing.  Football is vanishing before our very eyes.  Basketball is not a realistic option for most.   Make no mistake the future of sports in general is in jeopordy.  Thats why the new stadiums have so many attrations.  Its about the social event now more than the game itself!  Adapt and survive! 

+1

The cost of HS baseball is equivalent to mid level travel ball on a per player basis.  I guess the biggest difference is that you get much more practice with the HS than with travel.  Most of the travel budget goes to tournament fees ect, and most of the HS budget goes for field maintenance, travel, etc..  I would almost guarantee that paid travel ball coaches make more per hour than HS coaches!

There is and will always be a certain amount of pride in playing school sports and I hope that they thrive in the future, but some changes will have to occur. 

In our school situation, we get almost no school funding so we must do a lot of fundraising.  I would guess that 75% of the money is raised by 20% of families. Most of the 20% that raise the money  are also paying for travel ball. If travel ball continues to expand and costs continue to rise, these families will begin to divert more time and money to travel ball and the HS teams will quickly begin to deteriorate.

As I said, I truly want to see High School baseball thrive.  At least in our situation, these coaches not only serve as coaches but role models and disciplinarians when needed.  It provides playing opportunities for kids that otherwise would be left out. 

Is anyone seeing schools or states doing anything to help this?

I understand the argument that travel is more competitive, and in a lot of cases has more knowledgeable and/or experienced coaching. But there is a lot of direct and indirect good that comes from high school athletics.

I see it going that way, as well. In Colorado (though not in the small district I'm now in) it might as well be that way. For baseball and basketball it's moving that way now. In Jefferson County, where I lived before I moved to the sticks, the schools do not finance sports. Sports fees are charged and teams do a lot of fundraising. Additionally, the "C" team (mostly freshmen) aren't even handled by the high school coaching staff. They are picked at the high school tryout by the high school varsity coaches and then turned over to an outside coach (usually a dad) where they play in a recreational league. They wear the school unis, but aren't officially affiliated with the school.

I think football will continue to be a way out of the ghetto for some kids.  These kids will continue playing regardless of the risks involved . The suburban kids who have means will opt out and play other sports.

And regrettably I think baseball is slowly being replace with lacrosse. 

I hope I'm wrong.

in Fairfax County, VA, there was a school start time schedule change this year, intended to let the HS kids get additional needed sleep in the teen years.  If you are playing sports at our school, there is now time between 6:00 AM and 8:00 AM to practice before school starts.  So much for additional sleep, now up at 5:00 AM to be at practice at 6:00 AM.  Even the baseball team has taken advantage of this and started a fall weight room session at 6:00 AM.  I believe this is a loophole our administration did not expect.  I am sure this will continue into the Spring.  Yes, this preps the kids for college ball if they get that far, but bad idea for immature HS kids and the parents that have to adjust as well. Some kids will just refuse to go or not be able to go, so the sport will change.

Good topic. Let's not forget soccer.

I really wonder if football is going to be able to overcome the really serious injury and concussion issue. It seems things have to change, perhaps their will be some revolutionary advances in helmets and concussion prevention?But in fairness, although serious injuries and deaths are exceedingly rare in baseball, we all know they happen.

I can see many HS sports becoming completely non-funded in some areas of the country in the next decade, but keep plodding along.

wareagle posted:

+1

The cost of HS baseball is equivalent to mid level travel ball on a per player basis.  I guess the biggest difference is that you get much more practice with the HS than with travel.  Most of the travel budget goes to tournament fees ect, and most of the HS budget goes for field maintenance, travel, etc..  I would almost guarantee that paid travel ball coaches make more per hour than HS coaches!

 

 

It obviously varies by region. Texas does a pretty good job of funding HS sports.  With us, a kid literally doesn't have to pay a dime to play HS ball. You need basic equipment like a glove and spikes (we can get you those if needed most often), but we don't mandate our kids pay any fees or buy any specific equipment. So for us, sometimes HS ball being "free" is a much better alternative to travel or select ball based solely on finances.

If the cost to play each was similar I could see where decisions may need to be made, I just hope we never get to that point around here.

Along with Fenway's thought's I see smaller HS districts dropping football due to rising expenses.  Especially if the insurance costs to cover CTE and other injuries becomes prohibitively expensive. 

I already see some districts considering dropping sports due to budget issues (Fairfax County - largest school district in VA - is one).  Usually this is just a tactic to get the populace to be in favor a tax increase to help fund the schools.

At least one county in our region has instituted a pay-to-play policy, but how much that really helps I am not sure.

Football is already dying out in our district. Our youth football program is lucky to be able to field one team at each age level. In the past, they have easily fielded 2-3 teams per age division. That does not bode well for the future of our high school football program. There are lots of advancements in helmet technology coming down the pike. The problem is that many of these newer helmets will be prohibitively expensive for most schools. My son races MX in his very limited spare time. He has a top of the line helmet with the latest in concussion reducing technology. It is the most expensive piece of safety equipment he owns. He also owns his own football helmet for high school football. That was the only way we could assure he was getting the latest technology.

Kids in our district have to pay $160 to play each sport, unless you are on free or subsidized school lunches, which is at least half the school. However, the sports programs do not get that money. It goes to the district to pay for travel, insurance and officials. Our head baseball coach only gets enough money to pay for turfis and game baseballs for the season. Any additional monies have to be fundraised to pay for field maintenance, new uniforms, etc. Currently, they have one bucket of used balls for practice. They are hitting tennis balls off the tees. If high school baseball went away, the vast majority of kids in our district would not play. They cannot afford travel baseball. I think there may be 3-4 kids who would play club baseball if there were no high school program (those are the same 3-4 kids who are playing club ball in addition to hs ball already).

If HS sports really do go away in some areas, I worry about the overall educational impact that will have on certain populations. For the most part, only those that can afford to play will be able to. Where does that leave the kid who's sole motivation in school is getting good enough grades to play sports? I know a lot of those types of kids and it is a sobering thought.

When looking at youth participation in sports don't overlook the current generation of youth is smaller in number. Enrollment in schools is down. 

I've moved to MA since my son graduated. So I'm not in tune with what's occurring in SE PA high school sports. In MA some school districts are requiring families to fund their kid's participation. It's a killer for equipment heavy sports like football and hockey.

The problem is the school districts with funding issues are the ones where sports participation keeps kids off the streets and out of trouble. If it's $700 to play a season of football or hockey and the kid doesn't play frequently is it worth it? What if you have two or three kids in high school? So far business and personal donations have kept kids in most high schools in the game.

i believe high school football has two issues working against it's future outside the cost of equipping a team: 1) risk of concussion and 2) rising insurance liability costs for the school.

i don't see high school basketball has changed all that much. But I do know kids who didn't seem to have the focus in high school games they had in AAU games. These are kids who were good enough to go on to D1.

i believe baseball's biggest issue is the challenge of hitting a pitched ball. We have become a society of instant gratification. With all the year round sports choices kids have, if they struggle in preteen baseball they quickly move on to something else. I also blame poor coaches running boring practices competing with other sports that have kids running on the field most of practice (soccer, lacrosse). Kids have too many options now than to chose to be bored.

Chances are most high school sports will be around in some shape or form. The purpose of high school sports is not to produce college athletes. It's to provide extra curricular activities. Being part of a team, the structure, discipline and commitment are all valuable lessons for a kid even if he doesn't play past high school.

The change may be how much college prospects participate in high school sports, but given how delusional parents can be I can see high school age travel getting watered down as much as preteen travel. If someone is willing to put up the money there's always someone willing to take it.

Let's see.  10 years.  They used to have HS boxing.  In 10 years, HS football will be a thing of the past (it already is at our school only winning 1 or 2 games a year).  With the potential legal liability, It just won't be sustainable.  Other sports will be challenged by budget issues.  The non-sport people will push to put the money in the class room. 

Is it a bad thing?  IDK.  The rise of club sports will allow kids who want to, to play.  More likely than not, the "B" team kids will continue to find opportunities to play and not get funneled out.  You do loose the "school spirit."  Bottom line.  We all know it will change over the next 10 years. 

There have been multiple districts, some even high powered districts, in Southern California openly discuss ending all sports with the exception of Football.  The rationale is that all other sports you can get and compete in outside of the HS setting and that most recruiting is flowing in that direction as well.

I think that in a 100 years (or less) people will ask, "What in the world were they thinking regarding football?"  A version of how we might think of past gladiators.

Agree with 2NDMARDIV when in comes to risk / return in playing football.  It is like the economics of crime.  If a kid doesn't have much to lose, his risk / return profile is biased to take risk and therefore he is more likely to commit a crime.  If a kid is faced with bad life in the neighborhood or a longshot at succeeding via football, we know which he will choose.

The money is filtering down into youth sports as noted in AAU basketball and that will take some of the best players away from school ball.  It has been happening in soccer for a few years.  Not really hearing about kids doing this in baseball around here, but it may only be a matter of time.  Unfortunately, school sports in the US are going the way of most other countries and I wish this was not so.

Texas1836 posted:

I think that in a 100 years (or less) people will ask, "What in the world were they thinking regarding football?"  A version of how we might think of past gladiators.

Agree with 2NDMARDIV when in comes to risk / return in playing football.  It is like the economics of crime.  If a kid doesn't have much to lose, his risk / return profile is biased to take risk and therefore he is more likely to commit a crime.  If a kid is faced with bad life in the neighborhood or a longshot at succeeding via football, we know which he will choose.

The money is filtering down into youth sports as noted in AAU basketball and that will take some of the best players away from school ball.  It has been happening in soccer for a few years.  Not really hearing about kids doing this in baseball around here, but it may only be a matter of time.  Unfortunately, school sports in the US are going the way of most other countries and I wish this was not so.

Not so sure about the risk/reward theory for football.  6 of the 8 Texas 5A and 6A football state finalist schools were from relatively affluent areas.  Katy, Austin Lake Travis, Austin Westlake...

Yesterday I met with Tim Dwight, former star college and NFL wide receiver/kick returner.

We got to talking about football injuries and just how dangerous the game has become.  He said that if he had any kids he wouldn't allow them to play football.

He considers himself one of the lucky ones despite many injuries and surgeries.  Also thinks he only had a few concussions that he knew of.

Being a big football fan, I would hate to see the sport die.  But when you watch a college or pro game you're going to see some injuries.  And some injuries you don't even see happening.

The average career of an NFL running back is not enough to qualify for pension.

Football players keep getting bigger, faster and stronger. The field remains the same size. It makes for more violent collisions. John Mackey was considered a monster tight end in the 60's. He was 6'3", 225. It's the size of an average size QB now. Rob Gronkowski is 6'6", 265 and a lot faster than John Mackey could have dreamed. Linebackers who weigh 260 now run 4.6 40s.

A Texas view.  As others have mentioned, HS football is in the cross hairs.  The difficult family decision to play or not might ultimately be decided by the school district to pull Football.  Can they really afford the potential legal action and bad press associated with it.   And what happens if HS football was eliminated.  Does that make way for elite club football?  Does HS baseball, basketball and other sports receive a boost from it?  Does robotics become the next club team sport?   :-)

Western PA view,   Football here has suffered tremendously, not near what it was just 10 years ago.  our school in particular is a great example.  When my 2013 son was in 7th grade, we had two 7th grade teams, a freshman team and 80 kids or so on varsity/JV.  Last year we had one combined 7th and 8th grade team, and no freshman team.  Frosh played on JV, and the entire JV/Varsity was around 65 kids.    All this while enrollment at the school has increased.  Our youth program 7 year old- 12 year old has less than 50% of the numbers we had 10 years ago.    Similar situations at other schools in our area.     

However, baseball numbers are strong. We have 65 kids trying out from grades 9-12- more than we had last year.  I don't know if football has anything to do with the baseball numbers, but it appears that just about every other sport has more kids participating every year, or they are at least consistent.    I don't think football will go away, it's just not the king of the hill like it used to be.  Still my favorite sport!

Funny thing is sports concussions are not strictly related to football.  While football is the leader in concussions, boys hockey, girls soccer, and boys and girls lacrosse, are not all the far behind.  If parents, schools and the politicians  are truly worried about consussion risks they need to start looking at all sports and stop grandstanding on football only.

joes87 posted:

Funny thing is sports concussions are not strictly related to football.  While football is the leader in concussions, boys hockey, girls soccer, and boys and girls lacrosse, are not all the far behind.  If parents, schools and the politicians  are truly worried about consussion risks they need to start looking at all sports and stop grandstanding on football only.

 

Concussions are not really the issue.  As you say other sports have them, including cheerleading.  The real issue with football is all of the sub-concussive hits to the head.  (http://www.traumaticbraininjur...erious-brain-damage/)  These hits are not part of the other sports. 

In the large cities there are many options for players who have talent and are looking to play in college or professionally.  Youth leagues dominate from first and second grade teams all the way up. If you are not tall enough or talented enough for basketball then the kids play football. Baseball is an option for the younger kids but the teams get smaller turnouts as the age rises. The better baseball teams are located in the more affluent areas and the Private high schools, quite like the other sports, build the best programs year after year.

I have been involved in top level basketball ,baseball and football at the middle school level and the high school level for years. What I have seen is the diminishing number of kids playing multiple sports due to the time constraints and the costs. That will continue along with the parents making the hard decisions about which sport to concentrate on at an earlier age because of the costs. Baseball requires much more individual skill and development of specific skills than the other sports and less requirements for measurables ( monster size, incredible speed, and super human strength ).  

Nevertheless I have seen AAU take over in basketball and some athletes choose football with basketball height. We are beginning to see better athletes in the MLB, athletes who could play other sports professionally but chose baseball. Baseball is now the only major sport in the US that you can play professionally without attending college. That should lure better athletes from poorer backgrounds as a way to defeat poverty, and it has, from other countries. This fact is slowly being spread in the Inner cities through programs like RBI. In ten years you will see more US top level athletes choose baseball because of the earlier financial success like they have been doing in many other countries, as a means to escape poverty, instead of having to attend college for a few years while you watch your brothers and sisters struggle daily.  

@2foru, I live in Fairfax County as well, and son plays HS basketball and baseball.  So, you'll love this...with later start time, it means later end time in afternoon.  So by the time the freshman get to the opposing team's gym and get started, it is pushing back the varsity game start times.  We played at Mt. Vernon a couple of weeks ago, and I kid you not the basketball game didn't start until 8:30.  Kid got home around 11:30.  Then there is the homework on top of it.  So much for sleep.  

And let's not forget that VHSL is hemorrhaging money.  I think the new 2017-18 realignment will be the last option for change to have some financial stability, and if money continues to be lost, and if Garza continues to moan about budget, it will have significant impact on sports down the line, I think.

Like others, I think football participation will decline. It's becoming clear that the C.T.E. risk extends to at least college players -- it was just announced that former Giants safety Tyler Sash, 27, who played only two seasons in the NFL, was found to have extensive C.T.E.:   nyti.ms/23rTkLN -- and if it extends to high school, football is in trouble. Apparently, it is not just concussions that are the problem:

"Experts believe that less severe blows to the head — those not strong enough to cause a concussion — also significantly contribute to the damage that results in C.T.E. These lesser traumas are especially troubling, neurologists say, because they happen frequently in contact sports like football but go undiagnosed." 

It's starting to gain notice Tom Brady was not allowed to play tackle football until high school. There is a question regarding how much of CTE is relevant to physical development era hits to the hard.

RJM posted:

It's starting to gain notice Tom Brady was not allowed to play tackle football until high school. There is a question regarding how much of CTE is relevant to physical development era hits to the hard.

NFL quarterbacks today are still not playing tackle football.  If they are unfortunate enough to get tackled, there will be a 15 yd penalty and fine . . . . 

Just returned from the Sports Licensing trade show in Vegas where I got to spend time with one of our licensing partners, an ex-NFL D-lineman for over a decade. We talked about this very thing, and he emphatically felt that football was going to be in steep decline within ten years, and that if he had kids he would have them focus on sports other than football. 

He also noted that player culture was such that todays concussion protocols just force the players to lie about their symptoms. If you take a hit to the head don't show it - grab your knee or your arm if you need out of the game, that way you can go right back in & avoid the protocol. The careers are too short - can't afford to lose your spot. He said there were several games he played where he has zero recollection as to what happened after a hit. Full quarters & halves played where he had no recollection whatsoever as to the game when they watched it back on film. 

Was fascinating to discuss such a hot button topic with someone actually in the trenches as recently as the 2014 NFL season.