Hot Stove 2013

I like that the Reds have resigned Broxton which gives flexibility on whether to make Cahpman a starter or closer and that they resigned Ludwick for LF. Still need to shore up either CF and maybe #B. I wish they have made a play for Michael Young. Phillies got a steal on that one

Fenway,

We are somewhat puzzled here in Yankeeland. Letting Russell Martin go raised many eyebrows. I don't think anyone here wants the yankees to sign Hamilton. the general consensus is that despite the show he put on in the old stadium and that some of his pop-ups would reach the short porch, it would be a train wreck waiting to happen. Besides, I think the way he finished the season - unable to hit a barn and dropping the fly ball to cost the Rangers their season may have cost him a lot of $. I have heard that they are close with Ichiro, but the old regime would have had Michael Young playing third base to open the season.

Remember the collusion that occurred in the 1980's? How is a lot of this cost cutting any different? Some of the large market teams are seeing what teams like the Giants are doing and figuring how about us..

I believe teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox have seen the light and both will be moving towards cost cutting ways. Speaking of the Yankees and repeating history, this current team reminds me a lot of the Yankees of the 1980's through the middle 1990's. Lots of ugly years await before they will clear their current salary obligations!

I've seen opinions all over the place on this one. There is the old bird in the hand two in the bush theory which would seem to give KC the edge. On the other hand, Will Meyers alone may have been a good trade let alone getting the other pitching prospects so that would seem to favor the Rays.

If you have one pitcher on staff that can win 10 more games than he loses, if all the other pitchers around him go .500 that puts you at 91 wins and probably in the playoffs. That is why pitchers like Shields have great value even though he technically might not be a #1 guy who would command all those prospects. A few years ago, the Indians traded Bartollo Colon and received Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips from the Expos. In hindsight, that was highway robbery. We'll see if this trade turns out like that one.

My thoughts:
1. I wouldn't trust Broxton to wash my car... i think he's done.
2. The Royals HAD to give away the store to get pitching... the fanbase has had it... if this doesn't work they won't be able to draw flies with a pile of poo.
3. Josh Hamilton... yes, apparently he's been diagnosed with leprocy... someone will get him cheap and get lucky i think.

That giant s u cking sound you hear are the Dodgers....

Some of the over-spending blows me away. I thought we were still in a tough economy. I like Greinke and he is very good but not "highest paid RHP ever" good. Same for Victorino. 44M? Really? At this stage of his career with the recent injury history?

If you were to use Greinke and his salary as a baseline for paying pitchers and Victorino for position players - pay proportionately more or less based on track record and trending, I think you would have several $400-500M teams. Crazy. There has to be a better way.

Similarly, it is exciting to see the Dodgers as relevant again but apparently the luxury tax is not harsh enough.

I think the Rays are picking up some the salary on Shields as well. Losing Meyers is like getting a xmas present taken from you but this move had to be done. This trade will make or break Dayton Moore

Parts of the country may be in a tough economy, but that doesn't include baseball with its new TV contracts, hence the money to burn on free agents.

Yankee fans shouldn't get too worried that the Yankees are changing their ways. By lowering their payroll to under $189 million by 2014, the Yankees would reset the luxury tax equation to a very low figure of some 14 million instead of the 50 plus million they pay now. This will free up plenty of cash when a much more desirable free agent class is available in 2015 including people like Verlander. Watch the Yankee budget then!

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Same for Victorino. 44M?

cabbagedad - it was actually $39M / 3years for Victorino, but what is $5M among friends. Without question, Victorino is an insurance policy and leverage against (cue the evil music)....Scott Boras. They had to take the best value (notice I didn't write "best player" available), and I think they got it. It makes sense for the Red Sox at this time, in this market. Truthfully, I'm just glad they didn't do something stupid like take Josh Hamilton

Threebagger - think about what you just wrote. My point is the Yankees are actually thinking about money. WTF? This thought of fiscal responsibility has entered their collective consciousness. We're talking about an organization that is the poster child for the luxury tax. It is absolutely crazy, and I think this may be another Mayan calendar sign that the world is about to end. What is next..Yankees front office as the go between for Obama and Boehner to avoid the fiscal cliff? I just don't know what to think they are up to.

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BOF posted...That giant s u cking sound you hear are the Dodgers....

Boy, you're not kidding.

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Originally posted by fenwaysouth:

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Same for Victorino. 44M?

cabbagedad - it was actually $39M / 3years for Victorino, but what is $5M among friends.

Oops, that's right. $44M was what my Tribe was offering. Maybe some sour grapes on my part

With the Phillies getting Michael Bourne lite from the Twins and the Rangers paying $10mil of Young's $16mil contract they still have plenty of money for a decent outfielder and some good relievers.

Maybe Hamilton has to sign a one year deal to prove he's healthy and straight. Cody Ross is out their and his clutch hitting is exactly what the Phils need. I don't know what relievers are available but the Phillies definitely need one of two of them.

Seems most teams are slow playing this FA market.

I try to look at each offseason deal as objectively as possible, and look at it from financial terms for the team.

1) I like the Napoli signing, He is waning into a non-durable asset who will be necessitated into a platoon situation. However, Napoli's value is in OBP...which is a very good asset to have. Is he a bargain? No. But his wRC+ is in line with Adrian Gonzalez's and better than James Loney's (the two 1B that Boston gave up). He'll provide some solid offensive production.

2) I don't like the Victorino signing. $13mil a year for an aging platoon outfielder who can't hit RHP? Sure, he's decent defensively and kind of speedy on the base paths. But the Red Sox retain the rights to Ellsbury for another year at least, and have Jackie Bradley, Jr. and a few others coming up the ranks quickly. I can't see any justification for spending that much money on a player that will provide Victorino's kind of output. One year contract? Sure, go get 'em....then you move Ellsbury, load up on some young talent and rebuild a few years down the line. But that's a lot of money, and a lot of years, to invest into that kind of player.

Just one note: Greinke is the richest RHP ever *to date*. That'll change in the next few years, I promise. Estimates indicate that a single win is valued at $5.5 million for 2013, and will only increase into the future.

I also think the Rays won the Myers-Shields trade, although I don't think its as huge as some reporters have made it seem. Shields and Davis will not make the Royals a playoff team. They need a lot more help than that- from Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas et al. They won 72 games in 2012...16 wins behind the lowest playoff-bound win total in the AL. Shields and Davis won't get them there. BUT, the Royals will be better. Definitely.

The reason I think the Rays got the better end of the deal is simply because of financial security and years of control. Myers, Odorizzi and Montgomery are all under control by the Rays for 6 years, and are all 3 years away from any arbitration. Shields and Davis are already under MLB contracts, and only have 2 years of control remaining. So unless the Royals are looking to bounty up a hefty amount of money (which Shields will be demanding), they traded 6 years of 3 prospects (one stud, one mid-rotation guy and one reliever) for 2 established big leaguers (one quality #2 and one back-end rotation guy).

In my opinion: The best offseason thus far goes to the Nationals. Alex Meyer is a good pitching prospect but still needs to develop a 3rd pitch. Denard Span is an established above average defensive outfielder who is a leadoff hitter, which they need. In my opinion, this avails them the opportunity to lowball Laroche, because they can maneuver Span in CF, Harper in RF and Werth in LF with Morse at 1B.

The Nationals also signed Dan Haren to a 1 year, $13 million deal. If Haren is healthy, I think that could be one of the biggest bargain free agent contracts of the last few years.

I heard on the radio this morning that the Phillies offered Hamilton a 3 year, $80mil contract. This is according to sports talk show host.

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JH posted....In my opinion: The best offseason thus far goes to the Nationals. Alex Meyer is a good pitching prospect but still needs to develop a 3rd pitch. Denard Span is an established above average defensive outfielder who is a leadoff hitter, which they need. In my opinion, this avails them the opportunity to lowball Laroche, because they can maneuver Span in CF, Harper in RF and Werth in LF with Morse at 1B.

The Nationals also signed Dan Haren to a 1 year, $13 million deal. If Haren is healthy, I think that could be one of the biggest bargain free agent contracts of the last few years.

Absolutley 100% agree. They could lowball Laroche, but I would offer Laroche a competitive offer. He was Mr Everything last year, and his glove saved their bacon a number of times. Morse at 1st base gives me the Willies which is why he is mostly in LF. They need LaRoche, but they have a backup plan. I love the Haren 1yr signing.

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fillsfan posted...I heard on the radio this morning that the Phillies offered Hamilton a 3 year, $80mil contract. This is according to sports talk show host.

Good luck with that! I love the idea of somebody else taking Hamilton off the market, so my teams (Red Sox & Nats) don't do anything stupid. If it is the Phillies, so be it. What are the Phillies plans if Chase Utley continues this quick decline. They must have someone in their farm system that is almost ready. He'll be a free agent in 2014.

The infielder in waiting is Freddy Galvis. Great fielder, not so good hitter. Can play 2B, SS and 3B very well. A Hamilton signing would replace Utley's bat if his knees don't hold up, and Galvis is defensive improvement over Utley.

I'm more concerned with the Phils getting capable bullpen help. Their setup guys were horrible last year. I'm on the fence about Hamilton. A lot of money but not a lot of years. He could hit 35-40 and 100 rbi a year very easily if he's healthy and clean. Three years goes by real fast and the timing will correspond with a couple of other contracts they have (Hallady, Lee & Rollins). Make a run while you can rebuild in three years.

Big three team trade today between Cincinnati, Arizona and Cleveland. I really like the potential that Cleveland got even if Stubbs has been somewhat of a disapointment to me. Too many K's. Great CF though. Still time to breakout. Bauer still has a great chance to be a top pitcher, especially under a guy like Francona. I feel Cincinnati addressed a big need in getting a leadoff guy who actually does get on base and has some pop in his bat too. We'll have to see about the guys Arizona got.

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Originally posted by BOF:
That giant s u cking sound you hear are the Dodgers....

That's usually the Cubs!

Hamilton to the Halos!?!?

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Originally posted by TromblyBaseball:
Hamilton to the Halos!?!?

Quite a lineup indeed. I hope Arte Moreno is no Wayne Huizenga. Hope he can afford to do more than sign people to large contracts, then tear it all down after one championship, and the funds dry up.

Done, Hamilton, 5 years/$125M. Now who's the odd man out in the Angels outfield - Bourjos or Trumbo?

How would you like to be Vernon Wells on that Angel's roster?

I have a feeling that Artie might be hurting in about three years as he will be paying $50,000,000 a year to TWO players who will definitely be on the downside of their careers by then. But he may feel a shot at a World's Championship over the next two or three years was worth it. At least he is not afraid to spend his money.

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Originally posted by J H:
2) I don't like the Victorino signing. $13mil a year for an aging platoon outfielder who can't hit RHP? Sure, he's decent defensively and kind of speedy on the base paths. But the Red Sox retain the rights to Ellsbury for another year at least, and have Jackie Bradley, Jr. and a few others coming up the ranks quickly. I can't see any justification for spending that much money on a player that will provide Victorino's kind of output. One year contract? Sure, go get 'em....then you move Ellsbury, load up on some young talent and rebuild a few years down the line. But that's a lot of money, and a lot of years, to invest into that kind of player.

Agreed. And with that in mind, I sure would love to know the back story on why they just did not sign Cody Ross, a much better alternative in my mind.

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Originally posted by Three Bagger:

I have a feeling that Artie might be hurting in about three years as he will be paying $50,000,000 a year to TWO players who will definitely be on the downside of their careers by then. But he may feel a shot at a World's Championship over the next two or three years was worth it. At least he is not afraid to spend his money.

Keep in mind that the value of a win will increase year-by-year, so $20 million now is worth more than $20 million in 5 years.

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Originally posted by RedSoxFan21:

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Originally posted by J H:
2) I don't like the Victorino signing. $13mil a year for an aging platoon outfielder who can't hit RHP? Sure, he's decent defensively and kind of speedy on the base paths. But the Red Sox retain the rights to Ellsbury for another year at least, and have Jackie Bradley, Jr. and a few others coming up the ranks quickly. I can't see any justification for spending that much money on a player that will provide Victorino's kind of output. One year contract? Sure, go get 'em....then you move Ellsbury, load up on some young talent and rebuild a few years down the line. But that's a lot of money, and a lot of years, to invest into that kind of player.

Agreed. And with that in mind, I sure would love to know the back story on why they just did not sign Cody Ross, a much better alternative in my mind.

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The Sox believe Victorino is in great shape and will return to form as an every day productive outfielder. While the Sox won't discuss it he'll be moved to center when Ellsbury is traded. Ellsbury will be gone by the trading deadline.

The Sox paid market value for Victorino. This says other teams believe he has three years left in the tank. Ross can't play center. Ellsbury has never said he wants to stay in Boston. He just married a west coast girl. Boras is his agent. Boras will market Ellsbury based on 2011 which he will probably not repeat. The Sox are concerned Ellsbury might be more like the player from '10 or '12.

RJM - Exactly. Victorino gives the Sox options, hence market value. I like Ellsbury, but he has proven he is a china doll. Boras isn't going to discount or put him on lay-away. I can't wait to see up and comer (Virginian) Jackie Bradley play at Fenway at some point. He has the arm to play center or right. The Sox are making small, measured moves to improve the club. I think this may be the year that their farm hands see the field, and possibly win some jobs.

I tend to agree that the Sox will move Ellsbury this season and Victorino will move to center for the next couple of years although I agree with JH that Victorino is going to have to eventually be platooned if he keeps up his massive splits on RHP vs LHP. He can still be a valuable role player on a good team but that is the question. Will the Red Sox be a good team for the next couple of years?

I believe the Sox moves are designed to get 82-85 wins for a couple of years until a group of serious prospects are ready. 2015 is the target year. By then some prospects should be in their second full year with more ready to come up. Victorino can be a quality fourth outfielder and mentor on the bench and in the locker room. Napoli will be the DH by then. At that point the Sox will look at a top free agent signing that turns them into winners.

Bradley (of) Bogaerts (ss) Marrero (ss) Brentz (of) Cecchini (3b) Owens (p) Webster (p) Barnes (p) de la Rosa (p) are all top prospects expected to be called up sometime between the end of 2013 and 2015. Also the Sox haven't given up on Iglesis and Kalish. Kalish was on his way before shoulder surgery. These has been talk Cecchini can be moved to first. With top three shortstop prospects there has been (crazy) talk of trading Pedroia for prospects and moving one of the shortstops to second. Not all these prospects will pan out. But there's plenty of them. Plus in the next two years other players will move into top prospect status. Plus there will be whatever Ellsbury brings in trade.

I'm not sure Farrell will survive two 82-85 win seasons in that town! Speaking of which--besides Lasorda, refresh my mind on this--what former pitchers have guided teams to the World Series in the past? Bob Lemon of the Yankees in the 1970's comes to mind but not too many others.

I think Victorino will be an asset. I just don't think he will be as valuable of an asset as he is being paid to be. The one optimistic outlook is that his actual salary equals his AAV, so the increased win-share value will not be reflected upon within his contract. However, a player his age, with his skill set and limitations is not an expendable player. I would imagine the Red Sox would be hard pressed to find another home for him several years down the road when they are looking to add that "one extra piece". Teams won't bite at a backup outfielder in his mid-30's with massive platoon splits. Is he good? Yes, definitely. But he won't help the team win now...not enough. And he won't be a viable trade option in the future because he platoons and lacks power.

For the Sox to spend that kind of money on a player, I think they need to ensure they can get some value for him towards the end of his contract. Unless they know something I don't (which could be true), I find it hard to imagine they project him to be able to adequately perform and stay in CF long term. If the assumption is made that they may have had to move him to a corner role, why not have re-signed Cody Ross?

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Originally posted by Three Bagger:
I'm not sure Farrell will survive two 82-85 win seasons in that town! Speaking of which--besides Lasorda, refresh my mind on this--what former pitchers have guided teams to the World Series in the past? Bob Lemon of the Yankees in the 1970's comes to mind but not too many others.

The fan expectation level isn't high for 2013. When the fans see the prospects called up at the end of the 2013 season and early 2014 the excitement will return.

The only loss of interest will be the bandwagon, party jumpers who came out of nowhere starting with game seven of the 2004 ALCS. But when the team starts winning big again they will return. They are derisively called the pink hat crowd. While it started as women who would try to convince men they were big Sox fans, the title conveniently fit any bandwagon jumper regardless of gender.

The Red Sox wanted Ross on a two year deal. Ross wanted three and got it elsewhere. Ross is 32. He doesn't exactly have an athletes body. These kinds of guys fade fast. A recent example would be Youkilis. Victorino can be valuable in any one of three outfield positions even if he turns out to be as a fourth outfielder starting 80-90 games. I expect Victorino to be a backup by the third year.

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Originally posted by fenwaysouth:
I like Ellsbury, but he has proven he is a china doll.

I can see why people would assume that, but how many of us could absorb a collision with Adrian Beltre? I think we will find he is not as much the china doll as one might presume, despite last year's injury on top of the 2010 one.

But yes, I agree his days here are numbered. Likewise, I doubt the recent acquisition of Hanrahan is long term. More getting ready for the future rather than establishing the present.

Ellsbury is a very good player--it's just ironic that a team is expected to pay for what he has done in his one truly outstanding season like he can do that every year, when most years he has a hard time just staying on the field. I guess that's one of the good things about being in the Major Leagues. J. D. Drew made a career out of that.

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J. D. Drew made a career out of that.

Ironically, Steven Drew (JD's younger brother) will be competing for the starting SS position in 2013. JD was persona non grata in the Fenwaysouth household, and was affectionetly referred to as "Nancy" (Drew) by my wife. The Red Sox signed Steven to a one year $9.5M deal last week after batting .223 returning from an ankle injury with the Diamondbacks. That sound you now hear is Red Sox Nation swallowing hard. While I don't agree with the business side of this deal, I don't write the checks. The Red Sox had to do something as it appears they are not ready to hand the franchise over to light hitting Jose Iglesias.

I think that Stephen Drew could be a decent pick up as long as he shows a little more love for actually playing than his brother did. I think the 9.5M was a little steep though, considering the year he had and what he has accomplished so far in his career. But Boston was in need of a SS for this season while waiting for the young talent in the system to develop.

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Originally posted by fenwaysouth:

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J. D. Drew made a career out of that.

Ironically, Steven Drew (JD's younger brother) will be competing for the starting SS position in 2013. JD was persona non grata in the Fenwaysouth household, and was affectionetly referred to as "Nancy" (Drew) by my wife. The Red Sox signed Steven to a one year $9.5M deal last week after batting .223 returning from an ankle injury with the Diamondbacks. That sound you now hear is Red Sox Nation swallowing hard. While I don't agree with the business side of this deal, I don't write the checks. The Red Sox had to do something as it appears they are not ready to hand the franchise over to light hitting Jose Iglesias.

Iglesis isn't ready at the plate. But he has Bogaerts right behind him and Marrero behind Bogaerts. It's put up or get out of Dodge time for Iglesis in 2014. As for Drew, I don't care what the Sox pay anyone for one or two years. It doesn't harm the future.

Are the Rangers going down the path of the other teams who made a run at the WS championship, then let the talent go? Lee, Napoli, Hamilton, Young...or is it just tweaking to stay (get back) in contention?

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Originally posted by twotex:
Are the Rangers going down the path of the other teams who made a run at the WS championship, then let the talent go? Lee, Napoli, Hamilton, Young...or is it just tweaking to stay (get back) in contention?

With each player you named there are valid reasons not to give them long term contracts. The Red Sox are balking on three years on Napoli. Rumor is his physical raised questions on him lasting three years.