How do you know?

You will know he's a legit pro prospect if he's drafted in the top twenty rounds.  94% of American MLBers were drafted in the first twenty rounds. 84% were drafted in the top ten rounds. Being drafted later means the player is seen most likely as single A roster filler.

Those are some pessimistic statistics (if there is such a thing).  Here were are talking about how to tell whether a pre-teen is the real deal, and then we get this information.  I personally think the guy helping fill out the single A roster is the real deal, especially when you start doing the math on what percentage of pre-teen players make it to the "pros".  Not really bashing the post, just trying to put a good spin on making it past college.  Heck, making it to college is a huge deal.  I hate to think of this like climbing mountains - climb the first mountain only to see another mountain on your path.  Climb that one and you get rewarded with yet another.  At some point you should reach the valley and celebrate.  Maybe there is another mountain in the distance, but you should get some time to revel in your success. 

Dadof3 posted:

So the reason I ask, not so much now as to being able to identify later if he even chooses to continue with the sport.  I am a pretty realistic person, but some of the things he has done have even made me (inwardly) go wow.  When I say next level, that, I suppose, could mean anything, maybe even a standout in HS.  Speaking of which.  We happen to catch part of a jv game the other day.  To say I was unimpressed would be an understatement.  If my 10 soon to be 11 year old (in a couple of weeks) made some of those errors I would be disappointed.  The hitting and pitching weren't much to talk about either.  Is that typical?  There were dropped balls, missed grounders, close throws to first that were off target and in the dirt.  

It depends on the level of the school's program (obviously). Here the highest classification JV teams are decent (just by way of example, pitchers are often throwing 80-83, though this year my son's team has faced as high as 87), but you get to the lower classifications and it's a horror show. 

2017LHPscrewball posted:

You will know he's a legit pro prospect if he's drafted in the top twenty rounds.  94% of American MLBers were drafted in the first twenty rounds. 84% were drafted in the top ten rounds. Being drafted later means the player is seen most likely as single A roster filler.

Those are some pessimistic statistics (if there is such a thing).  Here were are talking about how to tell whether a pre-teen is the real deal, and then we get this information.  I personally think the guy helping fill out the single A roster is the real deal, especially when you start doing the math on what percentage of pre-teen players make it to the "pros".  Not really bashing the post, just trying to put a good spin on making it past college.  Heck, making it to college is a huge deal.  I hate to think of this like climbing mountains - climb the first mountain only to see another mountain on your path.  Climb that one and you get rewarded with yet another.  At some point you should reach the valley and celebrate.  Maybe there is another mountain in the distance, but you should get some time to revel in your success. 

 

My son is a 2017, so we are thinking about this one.  What about the kid who is not a strong college student?  What if he were to get drafted in the 25th round and spent a few years in A ball?  Worst case, it gives him an experience he would otherwise never get and the chance to mature.  Best case, he beats the odds and makes the MLB.  I look at it like joining the army, but no one is shooting at you :-)

The size of the state doesn't matter. If a state lacks talent the colleges,in that state will recruit a lot of out of state talent. If the ratio of talent to opportunities is small players will leave the state. It's why there are players from California playing all over the country.

Tony Sanchez (Pirates) grew up in Miami. Coming out of high school no one in the SEC or ACC was interested except Boston College. He went to Massachusetts, developed and became the fourth pick in the draft.

Dadof3 posted:

So the reason I ask, not so much now as to being able to identify later if he even chooses to continue with the sport.  I am a pretty realistic person, but some of the things he has done have even made me (inwardly) go wow.  When I say next level, that, I suppose, could mean anything, maybe even a standout in HS.  Speaking of which.  We happen to catch part of a jv game the other day.  To say I was unimpressed would be an understatement.  If my 10 soon to be 11 year old (in a couple of weeks) made some of those errors I would be disappointed.  The hitting and pitching weren't much to talk about either.  Is that typical?  There were dropped balls, missed grounders, close throws to first that were off target and in the dirt.  

Baseball at the HS level and JV in particular is a mixed bag.  For some JV programs having pitchers that throw in the 60's, batters that struggle to hit the ball out of the infield and defense that looks more appropriate to a little league field is not uncommon.  An average JV teams will be better than that with pitchers in the mid-70's with generally sound offense and defensive baseball.  You will still see mistakes and errors but not as much.  Top level JV programs can hold their own with average Varsity programs and are fun to watch. 

The variance between programs is huge...and vary from state to state and area to area.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

You will know he's a legit pro prospect if he's drafted in the top twenty rounds.  94% of American MLBers were drafted in the first twenty rounds. 84% were drafted in the top ten rounds. Being drafted later means the player is seen most likely as single A roster filler.

Those are some pessimistic statistics (if there is such a thing).  Here were are talking about how to tell whether a pre-teen is the real deal, and then we get this information.  I personally think the guy helping fill out the single A roster is the real deal, especially when you start doing the math on what percentage of pre-teen players make it to the "pros".  Not really bashing the post, just trying to put a good spin on making it past college.  Heck, making it to college is a huge deal.  I hate to think of this like climbing mountains - climb the first mountain only to see another mountain on your path.  Climb that one and you get rewarded with yet another.  At some point you should reach the valley and celebrate.  Maybe there is another mountain in the distance, but you should get some time to revel in your success. 

 

Does this help to understand why so many experienced posters say to enjoy the moment? Enjoy the ride. You never know when it's ending. For my son it ended a year early in a doctor's office.

I do agree with enjoying the ride.  I am very much enjoying both of my  sons tenure in baseball.   Every year gets more exciting as he (they) get better and better as does the competition.  It is becoming more like "real" baseball each and every year. 

Dadofa17 posted:

2017LHPscrewball posted:

You will know he's a legit pro prospect if he's drafted in the top twenty rounds.  94% of American MLBers were drafted in the first twenty rounds. 84% were drafted in the top ten rounds. Being drafted later means the player is seen most likely as single A roster filler.

Those are some pessimistic statistics (if there is such a thing).  Here were are talking about how to tell whether a pre-teen is the real deal, and then we get this information.  I personally think the guy helping fill out the single A roster is the real deal, especially when you start doing the math on what percentage of pre-teen players make it to the "pros".  Not really bashing the post, just trying to put a good spin on making it past college.  Heck, making it to college is a huge deal.  I hate to think of this like climbing mountains - climb the first mountain only to see another mountain on your path.  Climb that one and you get rewarded with yet another.  At some point you should reach the valley and celebrate.  Maybe there is another mountain in the distance, but you should get some time to revel in your success. 

 

My son is a 2017, so we are thinking about this one.  What about the kid who is not a strong college student?  What if he were to get drafted in the 25th round and spent a few years in A ball?  Worst case, it gives him an experience he would otherwise never get and the chance to mature.  Best case, he beats the odds and makes the MLB.  I look at it like joining the army, but no one is shooting at you :-)

A kid drafted late out of high school would most likely spend his first season in short season Gulf Coast League. He would be playing with other late high school picks and a lot of 16-18yo Carribean players. The second year would likely be in the regular short season league playing against high school top picks and 21 and 22yo players just out of college. If he survives he then moves on to playing low A where the average player is 22, 23 years old.

A kid from our high school signed after senior year. He was a 7th round pick. He was completely overwhelmed. He could have gone Power 5 D1. He spent three years struggling against former college players in short season before being released.

I talked with him when he was working in an academy and going to college at night. He called signing a big mistake. Since he was only 21 he hung on in the Atlantic League (Indy ball) for two years hoping to get another shot.

This kid could have played at Stanford. He felt he owed his grandmother for raising him. Maybe he would have washed out at Stanford. But he would have come away with an college education. Instead he signed for 175K out of high school.

I'm usually the one trying to figure out what the magical "life changing" figure is.  I will say $175k wouldn't qualify, especially if Stanford was an option (might end up snagging the perfect job and get paid $175M every year).  $175M might be appealing if you didn't think you could pull grades anywhere, but you would still have to survive and most likely have an exit strategy.    

Dadofa17 - the comparison to the Army is probably not that far off, but from a pure growing up standpoint, I might trust the Army a little more than MiLB.  Way too much time on their hands with no real opportunity to pursue other interests during season.  Way too little money with a 25th rounder not expected to get any real bonus money.  If they expect this to be their profession, than way too much pressure.  Not a good combination.  I will say that I was never in the MiLB nor do I personally know anybody well that was in the MiLB, but I'd be very wary of shipping my 17/18 yo off to some assortment of small towns to hang out with an assortment of grown men.  I still sometimes fret over his choice of friends in high school.  On the bright side, perhaps his spanish courses would come in handy.  Could be a wonderful experience for the right young man, but they'd have to have their head on straight going in and keep it on straight.  

Kids in the low minors don't have a lot of free time. They live at the park. Practice in the afternoon is very common. One of my homes is near a AA park. I walk by often. Even at that level a lot of players are on the field at 1pm when the game doesn't start until 7pm.

Perhaps the term "free time" was not exactly what I wanted to convey.  I get the impression there is lots of down time even though you are expected to be at a certain place at a certain time, but not necessarily filling all that time with activity.  Perhaps monotonous might be a better characterization wherein you had better really enjoy the baseball and hanging out at the park because that is your life for months at a time.  

RJM posted:

Dadofa17 posted:

My son is a 2017, so we are thinking about this one.  What about the kid who is not a strong college student?  What if he were to get drafted in the 25th round and spent a few years in A ball?  Worst case, it gives him an experience he would otherwise never get and the chance to mature.  Best case, he beats the odds and makes the MLB.  I look at it like joining the army, but no one is shooting at you :-)

A kid drafted late out of high school would most likely spend his first season in short season Gulf Coast League. He would be playing with other late high school picks and a lot of 16-18yo Carribean players. The second year would likely be in the regular short season league playing against high school top picks and 21 and 22yo players just out of college. If he survives he then moves on to playing low A where the average player is 22, 23 years old.

A kid from our high school signed after senior year. He was a 7th round pick. He was completely overwhelmed. He could have gone Power 5 D1. He spent three years struggling against former college players in short season before being released.

I talked with him when he was working in an academy and going to college at night. He called signing a big mistake. Since he was only 21 he hung on in the Atlantic League (Indy ball) for two years hoping to get another shot.

This kid could have played at Stanford. He felt he owed his grandmother for raising him. Maybe he would have washed out at Stanford. But he would have come away with an college education. Instead he signed for 175K out of high school.

Yep.  Son's HS teammate was drafted in the 6th round in 2012 by the Ray's.  Kid is 6'4", lanky with a "electic" arm.  Was consistently clocked at 93-94 mph.  Was also a 5 tool player.  Only his grades were not good enough to garner any D1 or even D2 interest so the scouts knew there was a good chance of him signing.  A Texas JuCo did offer a full ride.   Signed for ~$192K.  They sent him to the GCL (Rookie).  Struggled his first season, was hurt his second.  Did okay the third at Princeton (WV).  Last year they moved him to the short A team (Bowling Green) where he did better.  Looks like he's back at Bowling Green for the moment.  HIs fastball is even faster - 98 mph and has touched 100 mph.  Still struggling with his off speed stuff from what I hear.

For him, signing was his only choice.  I don't think he would have done well at the JuCo grade wise.

About ten years ago there was a six part documentary on the lives of six D'backs AAA prospects. They were Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, Dustin Nippert, Brian Barden, Bill Murphy and Casey Daigle. They were always at the park. One day Nippert and Daigle took their bows and arrows to a corner of the field for target practice. If players weren't on the field they were in the locker room playing cards. 

These were the top six prospects in the organization. Only one started for the D'backs for an entire season. You've probably heard of Young and Quentin. They were all up. Nippert ended up in Korea. Barden has been a career AAA player with injury replacement call ups. Murphy and Daigle had short MLB opportunities. You may know Casey Daigle better as Mr. Jenny Finch. 

From one numbers guy to another 2020 I wouldn't want to hang too much on rankings and ratings unless your son is going to be drafted and drafter high.   All the other kids and there are lots of future D1 kids in the "other kids" pool I have seen it be Fool's Gold far too often based on our just completed recruiting process.  Some rated high who make you scratch your head based on repeated game performance and some rated low who clearly perform above and beyond those rankings quite regularly.  

Best position player on my son's team has always been a top performer at big national events.  Nowhere to be seen on any ranking or rating service.  Rightfully so commits to one of the all time top 10 college baseball teams.  Low and behold he is one of the top 50 players in the state.  Strange how that happened don't ya think.  This kid was not a late bloomer.  He had been hiding and performing in plain sight all along.

RJM posted:

About ten years ago there was a six part documentary on the lives of six D'backs AAA prospects. They were Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, Dustin Nippert, Brian Barden, Bill Murphy and Casey Daigle. They were always at the park. One day Nippert and Daigle took their bows and arrows to a corner of the field for target practice. If players weren't on the field they were in the locker room playing cards. 

These were the top six prospects in the organization. Only one started for the D'backs for an entire season. You've probably heard of Young and Quentin. They were all up. Nippert ended up in Korea. Barden has been a career AAA player with injury replacement call ups. Murphy and Daigle had short MLB opportunities. You may know Casey Daigle better as Mr. Jenny Finch. 

 

Bolded is the clear cut winner here, she has her own money, looks and is an excellent blood line!!

Not sure I can tell you....but you may want to talk to the guy who put together the team my son played for when he was 10 and coached a team of kids starting when they were 8, up thru when they were 12.  He seems to have been a pretty good judge of youth talent (or just got lucky).

Of the 12 or 13 regulars who played on those teams over the 3 summers......every kid is (or did) play in college:  They are   4 D1's, 3 D2's, 4 JUCO's, a D2 football player and a D1 golfer (ironically, the coach's son).

BackstopDad32 posted:

From one numbers guy to another 2020 I wouldn't want to hang too much on rankings and ratings unless your son is going to be drafted and drafter high.   All the other kids and there are lots of future D1 kids in the "other kids" pool I have seen it be Fool's Gold far too often based on our just completed recruiting process.  Some rated high who make you scratch your head based on repeated game performance and some rated low who clearly perform above and beyond those rankings quite regularly.  

Best position player on my son's team has always been a top performer at big national events.  Nowhere to be seen on any ranking or rating service.  Rightfully so commits to one of the all time top 10 college baseball teams.  Low and behold he is one of the top 50 players in the state.  Strange how that happened don't ya think.  This kid was not a late bloomer.  He had been hiding and performing in plain sight all along.

Nothing of course is foolproof.  Just kind of a loose guide.  I suppose whether you pay attention to rankings or not is a choice.  Other thing you can do is look at the commits from your state.  If there are around 50 a year then you need to be too 50.  Again not an exact science but just a way of kind of figuring out where you stand.  

2017LHPscrewball posted:

I'm usually the one trying to figure out what the magical "life changing" figure is.  I will say $175k wouldn't qualify, especially if Stanford was an option (might end up snagging the perfect job and get paid $175M every year).  $175M might be appealing if you didn't think you could pull grades anywhere, but you would still have to survive and most likely have an exit strategy.    

Dadofa17 - the comparison to the Army is probably not that far off, but from a pure growing up standpoint, I might trust the Army a little more than MiLB.  Way too much time on their hands with no real opportunity to pursue other interests during season.  Way too little money with a 25th rounder not expected to get any real bonus money.  If they expect this to be their profession, than way too much pressure.  Not a good combination.  I will say that I was never in the MiLB nor do I personally know anybody well that was in the MiLB, but I'd be very wary of shipping my 17/18 yo off to some assortment of small towns to hang out with an assortment of grown men.  I still sometimes fret over his choice of friends in high school.  On the bright side, perhaps his spanish courses would come in handy.  Could be a wonderful experience for the right young man, but they'd have to have their head on straight going in and keep it on straight.  

I saw an all-in fully informed (signing bonus, 5th year, other MLB pay milestones) analysis by a D1 coach that put the number at $1.5M (for a young man able to be successful at school).

My back of napkin math put it at $2M, so I was surprised.

FoxDad posted:

RJM posted:

Dadofa17 posted:

My son is a 2017, so we are thinking about this one.  What about the kid who is not a strong college student?  What if he were to get drafted in the 25th round and spent a few years in A ball?  Worst case, it gives him an experience he would otherwise never get and the chance to mature.  Best case, he beats the odds and makes the MLB.  I look at it like joining the army, but no one is shooting at you :-)

A kid drafted late out of high school would most likely spend his first season in short season Gulf Coast League. He would be playing with other late high school picks and a lot of 16-18yo Carribean players. The second year would likely be in the regular short season league playing against high school top picks and 21 and 22yo players just out of college. If he survives he then moves on to playing low A where the average player is 22, 23 years old.

A kid from our high school signed after senior year. He was a 7th round pick. He was completely overwhelmed. He could have gone Power 5 D1. He spent three years struggling against former college players in short season before being released.

I talked with him when he was working in an academy and going to college at night. He called signing a big mistake. Since he was only 21 he hung on in the Atlantic League (Indy ball) for two years hoping to get another shot.

This kid could have played at Stanford. He felt he owed his grandmother for raising him. Maybe he would have washed out at Stanford. But he would have come away with an college education. Instead he signed for 175K out of high school.

Yep.  Son's HS teammate was drafted in the 6th round in 2012 by the Ray's.  Kid is 6'4", lanky with a "electic" arm.  Was consistently clocked at 93-94 mph.  Was also a 5 tool player.  Only his grades were not good enough to garner any D1 or even D2 interest so the scouts knew there was a good chance of him signing.  A Texas JuCo did offer a full ride.   Signed for ~$192K.  They sent him to the GCL (Rookie).  Struggled his first season, was hurt his second.  Did okay the third at Princeton (WV).  Last year they moved him to the short A team (Bowling Green) where he did better.  Looks like he's back at Bowling Green for the moment.  HIs fastball is even faster - 98 mph and has touched 100 mph.  Still struggling with his off speed stuff from what I hear.

For him, signing was his only choice.  I don't think he would have done well at the JuCo grade wise.

 

Thanks for the update...I haven't seen much on him in the Free Lance Star and was wondering how he was doing