How do you tell you are not pro material( reality check)

First question,


What was the level of his competition?

A 21/22 yr old with a fastball of elite HS level, a "decent" change-up and NO breaking ball?

Sounds to me like he has maxxed out his potential. If your assement of his stuff is correct, it would appear he is not being honest with himself about how he sizes up with other pitchers looking to play pro ball.

Reality Check...If he got some or all of his education paid for, he is WAY ahead of the game.

E-6

The description indicates a pretty solid pitcher-- who knows if he will or will not be drafted?--do you ?-- I sure don't-- and perhaps his college coach knows a scout or two who will take a chance on the kid in a late round

Every year kids get drafted that surprise everyone supposedly "in the know" and others who were looked upon as early picks do not even get a sniff

Unless he's planning a career like that guy in Seattle with his 82-84 mph fastball, he should call it a career and get on with life.

Big difference....Jamie Moyer has more than 2 pitches!

it's only my opinion but it has been said many times the magic number is 90 mph.now i am only guessing that most guys drafted threw 90 when they were looked at.watching the college world series last year i saw quite a few guys that threw in the 80;s but i'm guessing they have some giddiup when needed.if a ml scout telling you are not what they are looking for doesn't do it reality isn't in your future.

TRUTH--there is no magic number---

IMO as a LHP don't believe velocity (84-87) was his problem in as much as only having a decent change and no breaking ball. If he had an excellent CU and decent CB to go along with his velocity he could be the next Glavine

A breaking ball can be taught

4 years of college and 4 years of HS, what was the player doing in all that time.
No fastball, no curve, NP, he is 22 not 18,

Footnote, the mention player graduated from a VERY TOP College will be making $80,000 a year

The only thing thats very very weird is the no breaking ball thing.

he threw a curve it just does not break much

He has his degree and is still hoping to get an opportunity with a team. I see nothing wrong with that. I assume he doesn't have a family to support yet. If he doesn't get drafted next week and doesn't get any free agent offers, then he can fall into his career that his academic background has prepared him for.

It's his life, guys......no need to criticize him for his goals and dreams. He obviously has prepared himself well for life.

The guy has something that a lot of guys don't. Determination.
You must have misswed the Jim Morris movie.
I have been around souts for years and most are nice guys but when it comes to guesing who will succeed it is a **** shoot. A lot of great talent is passed over.

And a lot depends on the teams he may be contacting ... let's face it, some clubs draft a lot differently than others. We spoke with an Orioles' scout after our son had signed ... he happened to be scouting Yakima players at the time and we discovered that he was the So Cal scout for them and had actually watched our son many times in 3 years at college. He said he really liked his stuff but unfortunately, being with Baltimore, they draft their pitchers differently because they are competing with the big guns in New York and Boston. So that may have something to do with the lack of interest this kid is seeing.

Personally I give him credit for following his dream ... nothing wrong with trying and there may be an indy team that could give him a leg up.

Grateful & Bobblehead,

Noone is doubting that he "could" still make it. We all have dreams & determination. Hell, we all would love to have a job that would make us and our off-spring wealthy enough to do anything we all would like. Eventually dreams, heart & determination run into car payments, mortgage/rent payments, grocery bills, ...etc.

As I stated earlier, if he got some or all of his education paid for, he is WAY AHEAD in life already.

Even at the MLB level, reality cathces up with players. Roger Clemens will turn 44 this year.
Randy Johnson has looked ordinary at times. Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Tommy John...All pitched well into their forties. Many pitchers have the heart & the determination to do so, but the reality is very few do. Occassionally there is that rare guy would does the incredible. It's great to see, but its so very rare.

The FACTS for this young man are simple. He has very little chance with a mid 80s FB, a "descent" change and virtually no curve. He can certainly go and try to sign on with a team as a free agent, but my guess is it will not be a MLB organization. His best chance may lie with an independant team. If he can prove to be successful there, perhaps a MLB team may take him on.

(TR...yes the curve can be taught, but why will a organiztion take on a 22 yr old pitcher who has not got one? Especially considering he is not a flame thrower, or in possesion of a high end change-up either.)

The scout was doing his job and being up front and honest with the kid. It doesn not mean he should give up, but he should put everything in its proper perspective too.

E6

Sat behind both guns at a Florida State League game recently. Never saw a pitch thrown harder that 88. The 2005 RHP 10th rounder who was named Pitcher of the Week two weeks ago worked from 84-87 throwing 8 shutout innings.

Somebody is signing them. They are playing and winning.

My son is a 80-84mph FB lefty and he is on atleast 4 ML prospect databases.
I have seen several lefties who have been drafted at that velocity. There is no doubt velocity is king but not everything. This guy has to develop his other pitches. ML guys are learning all the time. All the guys I know in the minors are still learning and some times have to relearn everything they do.
CB can be taught as well as many other pitches. You can also increase your velocity by hard work and proper training. If he gets a job and keeps playing ball he still can have a shot. Jim Morris did it and so have other.

Dad04,

Im betting these pitchers you are talking about have more in their arsenal than a descent change and a non-fuctional curve.

Why would a team take a chance ?--simple a late round pick costs them nothing and who knows what can happen--as noted abopve the kid has DETERMINATION--for some teams that means a lot

TR,

It does cost the team something. Teams do not have unlimited resources when it comes to teaching. Exactly how many determined yet unskilled (BY MLB standards) players should a team take. There is no doubt there are success stories, but your not going to take a college .250 hitter with no power, descent fielding skills, and virutally no speed into your MLB organization just because he is determined.

Just having Determination is NOT enough. You have to have some actual skills to go along with it.

If he had an MLB level change, or curve, or a killer split-finger pitch, then certainly a team would look at him more seriously. I am basing my opinion here on the presented facts.
A 22 yr old college pitcher with an average at best FB, a "descent" change, and a curve that does not work. He has already had 4 yrs of high level coaching and development. The men who earn their living evaluating players are being honest and telling him he is not there.

If he is an 18 HS pitcher with these qualification, you can see a team taking a chance that they could develop him. Hence the predicament that he finds himself in now.

He sould certainly not give up, but should begin to place things in a proper perspective. He may need to get a job, and find a coach to work with to further develop his skills. There are many independant teams across the country where he best chances lie to prove himself.

I hope this young man succeeds, but what are scouts supposed to do? They are evaluating his talent, skill level AND determination.

NHF

They throw virtually nothing straight and hit spots with 3 pitches. Their stuff is effective. Obviously, velocity is nice, but command and good stuff required for success. We've all seen good high 80's and bad high 80's.

Dad04,

Completely agree!

Velocity is not everything, but if you do not have it you had better have an arsenal of pitches you can control very well.

NH

I said the player has a chance to be picked in the real late rounds--someone might like his makeup

My son has a 29YO teammate. He is a RHP and I saw himthrow Monday night for the 1st time. He was hitting 92 and was throwing strikes. He pitched 4 years in NAIA and broke several pitching records at his college. I couldn't believe this guy didn't make it. I was told he had control problems but I saw no signs of that on Monday. This is a guy I think might have given up too soon.

TR,

I would agree, if has an 18 yr old HS pitcher.

Unfotunately , for him being 22, there are literally hundreds of clones of him (including determination) coming of of HS across the country. There is more potential in those 18-yr olds to succeed. He has already shown that he is behind the "norm" that the teams are looking for with the benefit of having 4 yrs of college ball.

Bottom line....He had to come to the table with a better skill set.

NH

You believe what you want to---I respectfully disagree with your thinking

I believe it was stated this guy was very succesful at a D3. He must have something working for him.

TR,

The premise of the thread was how do you tell
when your not pro material?

This could easily be translated downward to every level of ball or in any sport. There is a point for EVERYONE where you have to face that fact that you cannot continue to play.

Again I state he should not give up, but he needs to be realistic too. I was just looking back at the thread, E-6 had posted he had an $80,000 a year job lined-up.

Best Advice possible for him...Accept the job and continue to work your baseball skills and perhaps you can catch on somewhere down the road. Obviously his college coaches connections did not supply him with any "ins" to help him get a shot at pro ball.

As far as him being very successful, We have not heard what that means. Was he a 4-yr starter with a great record? What was th equality of play in his conference? Was he a closer? Was he the long guy out the the pen?

I know many guys who are pitching in D3 or headed to D3, and they have outstanding curves or other offspeed pitches to complement a FB in the mid-80s. These young men have no illusions about playing pro ball. They feel fortunate that that skills are helping them pay for their education.

I know of 2 pitchers graduating from Philips Exeter Academy that can hit over 90 with outstanding complemetary pitches. They are both headed to D1 schools on scholarships. There is a chance they may get drafted in the lower rounds.

These are the guys the pros take a chance on TR, not a college senior from D3 bringing only one real pitch to the table.



TR, you have not come up with a answer to the main premise of the thread. How do you tell when its time to stop?

quote:

How do you tell when its time to stop?

Well, obviously it isn't by coming here and reading about how you can't be successful at the next level, by people who have never seen you in a game

All kidding aside, I think that the decision to quit is entirely the player's decision. After all, scouts have been known to be wrong occasionally. I believe that he should follow his dreams until he hits the block wall ... not just a fork in the road. I have heard people criticize kids who are playing indy ball ... why doesn't he just give it up? why doesn't he see the writing on the wall? Perhaps it is because the writing on the wall is in a language he doesn't understand.

And if these kids want to go out there and play for a few hundred dollars a month, as long as they don't have obligations that can impact a child's future (i.e., family responsibilities), I say just let them do what they want. I know one mom whose older son was the typical 'organizational player' in the White Sox organization and she told him several years ago that it was time to hang up the cleats. He didn't follow her suggestion but chose instead to keep playing until there were no more options for him. He came to that block wall and hung up the cleats ... but it was his decision to stop looking for another place to play ... and I personally think we need to just let our young people follow those dreams as long as they are not responsible for others or draining someone else's wallet while they are doing it.

Money isn't everything ... and altho $80K is a great entry level salary (unless you are trying to buy a home in So Cal), some guys aren't ready for that yet. I am sure our son would make a heck of a lot more money if he finished his chem degree and got a job in the "real" world ... but he is doing what he loves, not necessarily what others think he should do.

Maybe I look at things differently because I was raised by one who had me convinced that her dreams were my dreams and then had to deal with the emotional consequences of not continuing down that road. Maybe that is why I enjoy watching these young men who are so determined get out there and play the game they love. If and when it is time to hang up the cleats, I believe they will know in their deepest being. Until then I say ... play ball.

quote:

TR, you have not come up with a answer to the main premise of the thread. How do you tell when its time to stop?

From my view, I am not sure this is too important. Professional baseball will tell you when you are done. If someone wants to keep dreaming, stays in shape and attends all the tryouts that are offered, why is it any one else's business. Scouts and player development directors send the message "you are done" all the time. It is their message that counts.

players bypassed in the draft and try to show their skills in independent league baseball.

one thing Jim Morris was LHP and threw 98 mph, aint too many of those out there

TR,

On that point we agree....he should not give up if he can continue to work at it and improve.

The young man's problem now is he has to earn his way in the world now too. Unless he is going home to live with his folks while he coninues to persue his dream, he now has all the real world financial issues to deal with as well.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
The guy has something that a lot of guys don't. Determination.
You must have misswed the Jim Morris movie.
I have been around souts for years and most are nice guys but when it comes to guesing who will succeed it is a **** shoot. A lot of great talent is passed over.

What most people don't know is that Jim Morris was a 1st round pick of the Brewers in the 1983 January draft. He pitched a few years and hurt his arm and went on to teaching school. His arm rebounded, and that is where the movie picked up on his story. He was noticed by scouts, and was a fine prospect well before the movie story took place.

Yes Jim Morris developed his FB by a heavy weight program long after he was turned down in his quest to be a pro.
Jim is proof that you can develope long after people said he was done. This is where determination can come into play. If you want something bad enough go for it. Great pitchers are a stubborn breed.
Jeff Francis barely touched 80mph in his freshman year at the University of Britsih Columbia.(NAIA). Hard work and determination has got him where he is today.

Yes Jim was a great prospect until his injury. The movie icked up the real story of a guy who worked hard and was determined to make it back. He pumped up his weight program and according to the story went to a ML camp on a bet he had with his students.
He was considered washed up and shows you can get where you want to go even if the odds are against you.