How many D-1 spots are there in Va. for Va freshman?

I understand and agree with the point you make at the bottom, but where on earth are you getting these numbers?

I believe UVA currently has 13-15 Virginia kids on the fall roster. Not sure how you got to two??

VT = 0? Huh? Chad Pinder?

I believe he is just talking about the class of 2011 VA hs graduates currently on a d-1 program.

UVA would have Towns and Abel

quote:

Originally posted by vabaseballfan:
I understand and agree with the point you make at the bottom, but where on earth are you getting these numbers?

I believe UVA currently has 13-15 Virginia kids on the fall roster. Not sure how you got to two??

VT = 0? Huh? Chad Pinder?

He said Freshmen... Only 63 Virginian 2011 grads were given the opportunity to play at a D1 VA school.

Ahhh.....guess all I had to do was read. Thanks for setting me straight.

Good data can-o-corn. Definitely eye opening.

That's 63 Freshman from VA that are playing D-1 ball in Virginia schools. Now let's count up how many are playing at non-Virginia schools.

I agree that the numbers are interesting but they don't tell the entire picture unless you go out and find out where all the OTHER VA kids are playing...

I do agree that they'd better be special. But isn't that sort of the point when it comes to D-1 baseball?

Ah, they're playing out of state? :-)

Anyway, great research. Would be interesting to see a nationwide breakout on that...

PG has listed no less than 28 more from the class of 2011 that are at Division I schools out of state.

My guess would be that around 100 - 125 players per year who play their baseball in Virginia find themselves on D-I rosters their freshman year in college.

Just a guess though.

I went to VaPreps and looked at their list of 2011 commits (155 Total):

Those commited to Virginia Schools:
D1 52
D2 1
D3 20
NAIA 2

Out of State:
D1 40
D2 12
D3 9
NAIA 2
JUCO/CC 13

For several schools that I wasn't familiar with, when I went to CollegeBoard to verify, 2 were to an Intramural Baseball School (College of the Albemarle); 4 "intercollegiate" (Northwestern in IA, and Tenn. Wesleyan) which I now see are NAIA.

****Disclaimer: I could have counted wrong and CollegeBoard could have the incorrect designation (classification?). I also included players that were listed by Va Preps as committed to college but were later drafted. Also, VaPreps could have missed one or two that snuck in on the VA rosters.

Keewart,

Curious as to whether you included only players playing at NCAA schools or whether you included NAIA schools, such as UVA Wise.

I included all schools that VaPreps listed. After going to the NAIA site, it looks like the "intercollegiate" schools (Tenn. Wesleyan and Northwestern in IA) are the only NAIA schools that I saw. I missed UVA-Wise and put them as D3. I will correct above.

http://naia.cstv.com/member-se...es/about/members.htm

I also believe 2 players from Keewartson's school are planning to play ball in the Virginia community college system. When those rosters are posted in the spring, I will try to remember to report back how many Virginia players on on rosters.

I wonder how those numbers compare to other states in our area.

Regardless, it does underline how difficult it is to move forward. How many thousands of kids are playing HS baseball in this state?

quote:

Regardless, it does underline how difficult it is to move forward.

From http://www.ncaa.org/wps/portal...-+Prob+of+Competing:
-Approximately three in 50, or about 6.4 percent of high school senior boys interscholastic baseball players will go on to play men's baseball at a NCAA member institution.
-About nine in 100, or about 8.9 percent of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.
-Approximately one in 200, or 0.44 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic baseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team.

Validating aforementioned 6.4%...
There are approximately 350 high schools in VA. Assume 20 Varsity players per HS: 7000 players. Assume 30% are seniors: 2100. 155 collegiate ballplayers (see keewart's estimates) / 2100 seniors: 7.4%.

Close enough. I think you can say a VA HS senior has about a 7% chance of playing collegiate ball.

There are a lot more collegiate players than 155. In particular, a lot of recruiting goes on that isn't broadcast on the web. This is particularly true when the hype dies down and you get into spring, and even the following summer, with kids who had their sites set on D-1 ending up at JuCo's and D-3's.

In addition, the percentages vary from place to place. In 2008, James River had 5 of 7 seniors move on to Division I baseball. Cosby had 5 out of maybe 8-9 seniors move on to Division I baseball that year. In the class of 2012, James River has three guys who're about to sign with either UVA or VT, and at least one more commitment imminent.

Part of that is the strength of the feeder programs and the programs themselves. Part of that is also that when you are drawing one team out of 2,200 students, you get more talent concentration than when you are at a single-A program drawing your team out of maybe 700 in your student body.

Meaning no disrespect to the smaller schools, but you just can't expect them to have quite as many high level players. And when they do, those guys are often not tested against high level competition, so sometimes they don't develop quite as they might. So, the percentages are going to be much lower in that context.