How much do stats REALLY matter?

I think that the answers you will get (at least from parents) will depend on their kid's stats. Personally, I think that HS stats are almost useless because it is virtually impossible to compare HS stats between players unless they are both playing the same competition. Even then it's tough because even if two kids play in the same league, if one kid plays for the top team, he's probably going to see the top pitchers, and another kid plays for the bottom team, he's probably not going to see the other team's ace.

As for summer stats, again, it is incredibly dependent on who and where you play. I have seen some summer teams that were flat out amazing. I have also seen some so-called 'select' teams that were worse than some of the HS teams that my son plays against.

Personally, I think that coaches look at present ability level and projected ability level more than anything else. That's where showcases and trusted evaluators like PG come in.

Not much. They provide some stuff to be put in the college media guide, but not much else, and the high school accomplishments writeup grows shorter as the college career and accomplishments grow longer. A local pitcher with very average high school numbers got a scholarship to an ACC school because of one solitary stat: the mph he showed on a radar gun.

What we saw after seeing our son play all over the US on select travel teams, at national showcases and at a very good high school baseball program, was that it mattered greatly if you were a varsity player - then for pitchers, how hard they threw, and then how fast you ran - then height and weight. No one ever asked what you were hitting or what your record was. It is not as if stats don't matter, because they do open the doors to getting a look, and will garner some local honors, like all league or even regional or state honors, but those just open the door for you. A coach or scout must put his eyes on you and like what he sees. Stats won't matter if you look bad - and inflated stats make you look stupid.

Provi Celtics 08
Very good question and the answer is obviously different for different college coaches. I would guess stats could be important to not important at all. Recruiting of a player usually starts with a single thing and usually ends after the coach has been influenced by many different things. Recruiting could start from a showcase, an internet article, a summer team, a call from a summer or HS coach, a newspaper article, a rumor, word of mouth, a letter sent by the player, an email, or a reference by a baseball person. If you’ve ever filled out a questionnaire you will know a common questions is: “Name the best players you have played against?” So recruits are even a source for other players. Stats COULD factor in with all the other influences but stats are notoriously unreliable when trying to determine a player’s talent. I KNOW when my son’s college coach signed him to an NLI he had no idea what his HS stats were. (they never used them) Being the HS statistician I was contacted by the College media dept wanting his stats AFTER he had signed the NLI. I referred them back to the college coach and they said they had already contacted him and he had no idea. He told them to call the HS and they in turn gave them my number.
To sum up my feeling I think most good players have good stats --- average players have average stats --- and poor players have poor stats but everyone knows it is so easy to manipulate (or mess up) the stats that coaches cannot put a lot of faith in those numbers.
Fungo

Stats REALLY matter if the coach is recruiting from his office!

I can relate to Fungo's post, not one coach asked about son's HS stats. They were interested in his velo and that did open many doors, the same way power and speed opens doors for position players.

There are a lot of other things that are just as important, example, GPA!

My son is the ace on a 4a-league team. My friend's kid couldn't compete so he put him on a 2B league-team where he is #2. My kid just got clocked at 87 the other day (LHP) and my friend's kid I think 81 (RHP). My friend's kid is 7-1 in league this year. My kid 5-3.

Guess who's kid is being most actively recruited?

For pitchers, I've been told they look at ratios more than hard numbers. No one I talked to really cared much about W-L, but many were interested in the K/BB ratio, K/IP ratio, and WHIP. The kid being 6'5" didn't hurt him any either

Going back 10 years when my guy came out they never asked about stats---when they made the offer all they told him was" We want you to be with us. We know all about your ability."

Stats do matter: arm speed, foot speed, bat speed, height, weight. . .

dominick


Most people do not consider them to be stats

it was tongue-in-cheek.

As for position players, unless a kid is hitting with abnormal power (HOME RUNS), stats do not matter. There was a kid last season at a local high school who batted around .200, probably led the league in errors at shortstop, and could not hit a curve ball if his life depended on it. He did not make all-league, and he was a disciplinary problem for his coach and school with a poor attitude. However, he is 6'4" with a very athletic body, very good speed, great arm strength, a very athletic swing, and hit a few home runs. There were multiple scouts at every game drooling over him. He ended up getting drafted in the second round and signed for close to $1 Million. Why? He was projectable. He has size, strength, speed, and an athletic body. That is what matters. Projectability. Not stats. If a kid wants to make it past high school, the best thing he can do is get bigger, faster, and stronger. In other words, relentlessly work his tail off.

KnightTime,
I think the information in your post could be misleading. I checked on BA and there were only two high school shortstops taken in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft and neither signed for anywhere close to $1,000,000. They got a lot of money but far less than that.
Of those two, one is only 6' and the other, who is 6'2", reportedly hit .425 as a junior in high school and .427 with 7 homers as a senior. Also listed as having a 2.8 GPA. Neither is from the West Coast.
Maybe there is something lost in the round, money and stats, but I would find it hard to believe that a senior in high school who hits around .200,
is a disciplinary issue, and makes a huge number of errors would be worth the risk and cost of a 2nd round pick, even if it isn't $1,000,000.

Infielddad,
you have a pm.
catchersdad

CD,
I am not sure about signing bonus, but I do agree the above post is misleading. If the player was average but drafted on being projectible, one doesn't need to relentlessly work their tail off to get a million dollars, correct?

In the broadcast booth last night they interviewed the GM from the Washington Nationals. He was asked what other factors go into deciding on a top pick. His answer was.... good makeup, healthy, good attitude, family, who they hang out with, GRADES, interests outside of baseball. I would imagine most GM's who are going to spend a lot of money on a player would feel the same way. The above player doesn't fit that profile. JMO.

But then again, I could be wrong.

quote:

Originally posted by infielddad:
KnightTime,
I think the information in your post could be misleading. I checked on BA and there were only two high school shortstops taken in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft...Maybe there is something lost in the round, money and stats, but I would find it hard to believe that a senior in high school who hits around .200, is a disciplinary issue, and makes a huge number of errors would be worth the risk and cost of a 2nd round pick...

Sorry, without researching, I was rambling off the top of my head and was a bit misleading. Without using names, this particular player was a shortstop in high school, but was drafted in the second round as an outfielder because that's where they projected him playing. He did in fact move to the outfield in rookie ball last season, where he batted about .180ish.

The fact is, he had 11 hits his entire senior high school season, with 8 singles, 2 doubles, and 1 hr. That's hardly eye-popping numbers that would get a kid recruited by every scout in the area. I am not trying to trash this kid, and that's why I won't name him. The fact is, his stats in his senior year of high school were horrible. He got suspended for a couple games during the season because of disciplinary problems. He still got drafted in the second round. Why?

My point is, stats really don't matter (much). This kid was a great high school athlete, had the right tools, and was very projectable as a pro prospect. That is what got him a number of D-1 offers, and subsequently got him drafted in the second round. By the way, I understand the signing bonus was more in the range of $750K. Sorry.

quote:

Originally posted by Tiger Paw Mom:
In the broadcast booth last night they interviewed the GM from the Washington Nationals. He was asked what other factors go into deciding on a top pick. His answer was.... good makeup, healthy, good attitude, family, who they hang out with, GRADES, interests outside of baseball. I would imagine most GM's who are going to spend a lot of money on a player would feel the same way. The above player doesn't fit that profile. JMO.

But then again, I could be wrong.

Very ironically, the kid I was referring to was drafted by the Nationals. Go figure. Oops, I think I just gave the identity of the kid away.

Just citing our experience, before my son was drafted out of HS, the area scout who identified him did inquire about stats. I don't know what role, if any, the stats ultimately played in the organization's decision, but they were sufficiently important that the question was asked. It's possible that this area scout simply wanted the stats to back up his sales pitch to the home office that the organization should draft him.

I agree with CPLZ that certain stats matter more than others. Unlike ERA or BA, in which there is a degree of subjectivity in deciding what's a hit and what's an error, K/BB ratio, K/IP and BB/IP ratios, WHIP, and HR frequency are all objective numbers.

Is HR frequency really all that objective? One of the schools in our conference has two left handed hitters who we noticed were hitting a lot of home runs. When we finally played them at their place, we found out why: the school had fenced in the field and the right field fence was very, very shallow.

quote:

Originally posted by KnightTime:

quote:

Originally posted by Tiger Paw Mom:
In the broadcast booth last night they interviewed the GM from the Washington Nationals. He was asked what other factors go into deciding on a top pick. His answer was.... good makeup, healthy, good attitude, family, who they hang out with, GRADES, interests outside of baseball. I would imagine most GM's who are going to spend a lot of money on a player would feel the same way. The above player doesn't fit that profile. JMO.

But then again, I could be wrong.

Very ironically, the kid I was referring to was drafted by the Nationals. Go figure. Oops, I think I just gave the identity of the kid away.

Ironically, without my knowledge you might be right, however, your figure of 1 MIL was what prompted infielddad's reply. Also, know that if a team is going to give more than a million dollars to a player (I mean their first pick of the draft), they pretty much have to do a lot more homework on a lower pick.

Know your facts before you post. I do beleive your figure is still off. A lesson to be learned for all, be careful of what you post here, you never know who knows who and who knows what.

There are many players this year who will be drafted very high not based on their stats, but on their overall future projection, so therefore you are correct, sometimes stats do not mean a whole lot.

quote:

Originally posted by Holden Caulfield:
Is HR frequency really all that objective? One of the schools in our conference has two left handed hitters who we noticed were hitting a lot of home runs. When we finally played them at their place, we found out why: the school had fenced in the field and the right field fence was very, very shallow.

HR frequency is definitely NOT objective. Some schools have very short fences, others have normal distances but low fences, others are DEEP. At my son's school, the distance down the lines is only 305' , BUT, the fences are 20' high at those spots. The field is 375 in the gaps and well over 400 to center field, where you have to hit the ball on the roof of the hitting building to get a HR. So, needless to say, there haven't been too many HR's at our place, from either our team or the opposing team.

Then you have to factor in quality of competition in the league or conference that the player plays in. In our 5 team district, two teams have pitchers that are going to be playing D1 next year, and two have junior aces who are ranked in the top 100 nationally in the 2008 class. Face guys like that night in and night out, and you aren't going to hit too many HRs either.

quote:

Originally posted by Holden Caulfield:
Is HR frequency really all that objective? One of the schools in our conference has two left handed hitters who we noticed were hitting a lot of home runs. When we finally played them at their place, we found out why: the school had fenced in the field and the right field fence was very, very shallow.

That's why stats are so subjective!

That's why for some more attention in the college game is paid to where the HR is actually hit, not always on how many! JMO.

quote:

Originally posted by Tiger Paw Mom:

quote:

Originally posted by KnightTime:

quote:

Originally posted by Tiger Paw Mom:
In the broadcast booth last night they interviewed the GM from the Washington Nationals. He was asked what other factors go into deciding on a top pick. His answer was.... good makeup, healthy, good attitude, family, who they hang out with, GRADES, interests outside of baseball. I would imagine most GM's who are going to spend a lot of money on a player would feel the same way. The above player doesn't fit that profile. JMO.

But then again, I could be wrong.

Very ironically, the kid I was referring to was drafted by the Nationals. Go figure. Oops, I think I just gave the identity of the kid away.

Ironically, without my knowledge you might be right, however, your figure of 1 MIL was what prompted infielddad's reply. Also, know that if a team is going to give more than a million dollars to a player (I mean their first pick of the draft), they pretty much have to do a lot more homework on a lower pick.

Know your facts before you post. I do beleive your figure is still off. A lesson to be learned for all, be careful of what you post here, you never know who knows who and who knows what.

There are many players this year who will be drafted very high not based on their stats, but on their overall future projection, so therefore you are correct, sometimes stats do not mean a whole lot.

The amount of the signing bonus is irrelevant for the purposes of this topic. Whether he signed for $100K or $1 Million, there is no need to get bent out of shape. The discussion is about whether or not stats matter, not second round signing bonuses. My contention is that high school stats do not matter, other than maybe catching someone's attention. Who cares how much he got paid? The fact is, the kid got drafted in the second round, despite his mediocre stats and questionable conduct.

KnightTime, With more information, I did more checking...and for this player, it sure seems that your impression of projection vs stats is correct.
Professional baseball is very intriguing at times. For 3 years, I have watched a prospect. During that time he has yet to hit over .225 and strikes out about 1 1/2 times for each basehit. The player is now 22 or 23 and still in Low A. I wonder how long he can continue to be a prospect?
However, he has a lot of tools which are obvious.
Professional baseball is very different than every other level. For the player you describe, some folks in that organization took some risks. In normal business, none of us would do that for someone with that background. Professional baseball isn't a normal business.

quote:

Originally posted by infielddad:
KnightTime, With more information, I did more checking...and for this player, it sure seems that your impression of projection vs stats is correct.
Professional baseball is very intriguing at times. For 3 years, I have watched a prospect. During that time he has yet to hit over .225 and strikes out about 1 1/2 times for each basehit. The player is now 22 or 23 and still in Low A. I wonder how long he can continue to be a prospect?
However, he has a lot of tools which are obvious.
Professional baseball is very different than every other level. For the player you describe, some folks in that organization took some risks. In normal business, none of us would do that for someone with that background. Professional baseball isn't a normal business.

Infielddad,
Thank you for verifying my somewhat sketchy info. You are absolutely correct about professional baseball not being a normal business. Look at the entire Nationals 2006 draft board. There is more than one risky pick, and under-achieving high school players who 'project well.' Their profiles are quite a bit different than what Tiger Paw Mom heard from the interview with the Nationals GM. The same can be said about the top level D-1 baseball programs -- they are not normal. Most people do not understand what professional scouts and D-1 coaches look for. It certainly is not stats.

After being around the high school game for many years, I think players and parents put way too much pressure on themselves worrying about stats. There have been many many high school league batting champs, first-team all-leaguers, mvp's, etc, who have been left scratching their heads, wondering why they did not garner any interest from scouts or big time D-1 programs. Baseball scouting/recruiting is in a world of its own, a different beast. Right or wrong, it just doesn't make sense to laymen.

I will say it again, if you want to make it to the next level, get bigger, faster, and stronger. Instead of spending your money on hitting and pitching lessons, hire a personal strength, speed, and agility trainer -- if you want to impress the scouts. Of course, this is just my opinion, and I'm sure will be challenged by more than a few...

KT,
Obviously the amount of the signing bonus mattered as infielddad was confused as to the player.

I am not in disagreement with your advice that stats do not matter, as I have posted that on several occassions. I have also on many occassions said that projection usually will be a large determining factor in decisions. So is signabilty, injuries and makeup, some teams putting one before the other of importance. And I agree that parents put too much emphasis on stats, as far as recruiting and scouting.

And infielddad is correct, baseball is NOT a normal business and no matter how many times one goes through it (twice now), I will never understand it.