HS Senior Year drop off

I would think recruiting would play a part in it. A player that knows he is being looked at in his junior year is going to do everything he can to put up the best numbers possible. Maybe the seniors that are already signed do not feel the pressure to perform as they did the previous year? I think PG Staff mentioned in a previous post about the "10" that becomes overconfident and does not perform all that well at the next level. I think this is just another example of that.

I have not looked that closely at it but mine dropped slightly, but he got mono so was out and came back quite a bit weaker. He also did not get as many AB's in, so you can throw this data point out. We also went to BBCOR bats so this was a big deal. If you are looking at Ca numbers the past two years then this is one factor.

It is quite evident however that he was pitched around as a Sr, because the league coaches all had seen him for two previous years. This may have some impact on the numbers overall.

Billy Beane

I agree cabbagedad. To a degree, I think we experienced that with our older one.

It may be as simple as an extension of 'senior-itis' which hits a lot of kids academically.

But it also may be related to perception. Kid has monster junior year, gets scouted/recruited, signs with big school. In the papers. Everyone expect perfection and complete dominance and anything less is perceived as a 'down year' or let down.

To this day, a local HS opposing coach tells a mutual friend that he doesn't think my older son is any good at all and didn't belong in D1...despite the accomplishments he had at that level and beyond.

And then was the experience of our younger son who got bet better his senior year. I will give credit to his HS coach for that one...and maybe a little bit of us not getting all wound up about newspaper articles, etc... and keeping the tone inside the house at a 'business as usual' level all through that senior year. His grades even went up a little!

But its an interesting discussion...and one I hear talked about a lot around the local HS fields.

I've notice this too and it seems to be a number of different things. Though it's hard to know, I suspect in many cases it can be attributed to various distractions going on during the senior year that might keep a player being as focused or from keeping up on his routines that keep his performances sharp. But I feel one of the main factors, if not the biggest factor, is as a result of opponents coach's scouting. I know in my son's case, since he had a fantastic Jr. year, the pitchers were not pitching him the same way during his senior year where he wasn't getting as many good pitches to hit. So, I think when HS coaches see a good player who's really hitting the ball well, the opposing coach will have his pitchers pitch away or to the weakness of the player.

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It is quite evident however that he was pitched around as a Sr, because the league coaches all had seen him for two previous years. This may have some impact on the numbers overall

I think this happens very often, it happens in college also

For some it doesn't drop off, especially those that are headed for an early draft pick.

However, I think for most it has to do with prior commitment, senioritis and maybe a bit of burnout.

DK had a good senior season, I think partly in fact due to not playing fall ball (already committed). It was his first time in 2 years they allowed him to hit (not just pitcher only), and he had a blast.

Actually going back and lookikng his pitching numbers they improved significantly, his hitting dropped, but again mono and BBCOR switch year over year.

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Originally posted by CollegeParentNoMore:

quote:

It is quite evident however that he was pitched around as a Sr, because the league coaches all had seen him for two previous years. This may have some impact on the numbers overall

I think this happens very often, it happens in college also

Agreed. I think this happens often. Coaches are not stupid. They tell their players they don't want so and so to beat them. On the other bench, so and so is the three hole hitter expected to produce in every situation. Hard to drive the ball when it is several inches off the plate, but that is what is expected. No need to make excuses - this is the first stage of making adjustments. It's all good.

At least with batting average, I think it has a lot to do with pitchers learning that they are throwing to last year's leaders. Son had close to top BA in conference Jr year, and was walked excessively and "claimed" he never saw so many curve balls in his career.

My position player had a tremendous Senior season with big jumps in all his hitting stats. However, his increase was certainly the exception of what I saw for every Senior class while he played.

The reasons are the two most cited already;

1. Some drop offs can be attributed to adjustments the opponents have made based on last years production.

2. Most of what I saw had more to do with normal Senior - itis. That is; they thought a D1 deal was a right and really didn't work very hard on the field, while "playing" real hard off the field determined to have fun that last year. Others, who knew they were not going to play in College, had already mentally made the shift towards things that were more fun (girls, parties, stimulants) and less work.

Delmon Young dropped off due to being pitched around so much, though I think most anyone would have been quite happy with his senior stats.

One kid at our HS went from .328 as a junior to .228 as a senior. He couldn't hit the curve and they figured it out.

Another kid went from .300 as a sophmore to under .200 as a junior to well over .300 as a senior. Injuries and possibly PEDs played a role.

My son also had a big drop off in his senior year.
He hit 350 freshman year, 375 sophomore year, 476 junior year, and dropped off to 330 senior year.
I think between him not seeing anything good to hit coupled with him feeling he had to make something happen at the plate ( the rest of his team hit a combined average of 220) made for a very frustrating year. Thank goodness by the spring of his senior year he had already decided what his college plans were

Pop up numbers dropped his senior year and sophomore year in JC.

He is honorable mention, 10th team.