HS stats don't matter. What about PG?

jp, when Bum, Jr. attended the PG World Showcase I believe every MLB team had scouts there and there were a bunch of National Crosscheckers as well.  Was it the PG score they were interested in?  Maybe, maybe not, but they were there to "see" the talent with their own eyes, and the PG score surely played a role into which players were invited.  Tons of players were drafted after that event, including son.

As for stats, homeruns and strikeouts get the word out.  From there it is the scout's analysis of the swing, speed, fielding and radar gun readings.

I usually try not to overstay my welcome here at HSBBW but there have been some great topics and discussions the last week or so, so I keep getting sucked in.

This is more of an outsider's perspective.  I'm not a college coach or MLB scout and don't work for PG.  I have been to PG events and I have gone through the process of searching out what events have meaning and what the various ratings mean from different camps and showcases (all - not just PG).

I find PG to be the only resource that can be viewed with any degree of consistency in regards to ratings and analysis of players.  PG Staff will be the first to state that they are not always right and they make mistakes.  However, as a HS coach and a dad of a kid who has made the rounds on the travel/recruiting circuit, I have read the ratings on dozens of players I am familiar with and applaud the accuracy and consistency.

In addition to the ratings, they seem to have their own code language that is careful not to criticize a player but offer up key words that define a players strengths and more subtly define their weaknesses.  I see the same terminology used for events in the East and the West.  I suspect that most college guys know this language fairly well, better than I do, anyway.  I've sent some of my players to events and have attended and observed.  One event, I took notes on a couple dozen players and guessed what their rating would be.  Always within a half point.

You said the only reason it matters to you is you'd like to know how much things change.  I think, from that standpoint, you may be disappointed. They factor in how a player projects and usually come pretty close.  So I think there may be less change than you may be looking for.

All this said, my PG experience is with HS players who are juniors going into senior year, so much closer to their projected self than an incoming soph. such as yours, JP.

Or more.  Bum, Jr. went from 6.5 to 9.5 in just over one year.  The lower rating was a motivator for improvement.

PLEASE understand.

For me, this is a forum to learn. My question, based on recent, relevant input, is VERY SPECIFIC:

Do PG rankings of boys between between freshman and sophomore years of HS hold up?

That's all. They do or they don't. I suspect there's a whole lot of movement. Why wouldn't there be? I'd just love to see that movement on the website.

You will see the biggest "movement" between a player's sophomore and junior showcase seasons.  I charted this a long time ago myself.  This is when a big jump, if it happens, will occur.  Read my post above.

Seems like when my son was 16 then turned 17 now looks to be moving into manhood

and getting bigger and stronger, started working out with weight,etc.

even now at  college camps he seems to move and throw harder too.

But why is there HS stat info on the college recurit forms about HS stats if it doesnt matter, or does it...

jlaro - I think its as Bum stated earlier on another thread.  Things like strikeouts and home runs matter to some degree.  Strikeouts/inning and strikeouts/walks can be relevant.  I think things like ERA, AVG and others…far less important as they're much more subjective, even though they ask.

When PG ranks a player high, they have made an investment in the accuracy of that ranking.  That is where, in my opinion, their rankings lose the respect of those who use them.  Players who attend PG events are, generally, ranked higher.  This is for many reasons including PG has seen them.  Players who are ranked high do not usually decline after being propped up.  I know one great 2014 example of where a player has been ranked very high for 2 years and then has lacked performance and has not projected (size, strength, etc.), but that player stays highly ranked with kind words listed about him. 

Here is the best way that I have heard it explained to me by MLB and college recruiters...  "PG is excellent at scheduling events to see players, but we really don't place much value in their rankings."

Some of these statements about PG Rankings are interesting.  I can speak from personal experience on a couple.

1.  Son was ranked #156 Player in the Nation by PG in March this year.  He dropped to like #259 in the next one I think.  Anyhow, he had attended a PG event in between, and made the All Tournament Team.  He still dropped.  I think that gives the PG Group more credibility.  If all he had to do was get ranked, and then just keep,attending events, he would have stayed the same or risen according to what some of you are stating above.

2.  Scouts, Advisors, and College Coaches do pay attention to the Rankings.  

3.  Value of PG is far greater than the NTIS.  NTIS is nice, and son has been to Cary, Fall Classic, etc. too, but nothing created more buzz than attending the PG Jr. national.

@Ryno, well said. Congratulations on your son's success.

As people have said here previously, the invitation-only events are great.

For our son, being invited and going to the Area Code tryouts last spring;

and fortunately doing well at a young age drew attention and new contacts.

#1 thing that put our older son on the map?  PG National showcase...which was enabled by him being seen previously at an MLK event in Orange County attended by PG after which they listed him as a top-100 player (to my significant surprise).

He didn't get nearly the attention before that PG event despite striking out 125+ hitters in about 70 HS innings or throwing 90+ in HS games.

In my mind, its the venue in which your son will be seen by lots of coaches and scouts that is important.  As others have said, coaches and scouts wanna see with their own eyes and being at a well-run event (i.e. PG) gets your son in front of their eyes.  It also can create a "buzz."

The PG score?  I dunno, I never really cared what it was.  It does not surprise me that a scout or coach isn't interested in the score per se (just like they weren't interested in stats).  They want to see for themselves.  All I know is shortly after the event 'dream school' came calling as did many others...including USA Baseball and pro scouts.

First of all, if you made your living recruiting players or scouting for a MLB club, would you tell a parent that you rely on PG rankings. Of course, they want and need to see the player.  Of course, they will make their own judgement.  But would you completely ignore those grades and rankings by what is known to be by people who have a long background in scouting.  Are you willing to just skip that information all together.  

I was in Ft Myers a couple winters ago.  Talking about players with a MLB Scouting Director, I mentioned a player in Texas.  He checked his database and found out that player had not been turned in by his area scout in Texas.  Immediately that area scouting supervisor got a phone call to see why he didn't have the kid turned in.  That same kid, ended up getting drafted in the second rd.

Sure everyone relies on what they see.  That includes us!  We see more players every year than anyone.  Nobody can afford to completely ignore that.  We get calls from some of the top college coaches in the country.  They want to know what we know about a certain player.  I get calls during the draft from scouting directors wanting information.  This past year a third round pick was selected based on one of those calls.  I've had scouting directors who are now a GM call and ask who I would pick in their slot.

Believe me, no one that has a job that depends on finding talent ignores our information.   That would be stupid.  Of course, that doesn't mean they end up agreeing with us.  After all, anyone who has done this for a long time knows we could be wrong. They also know that they could be wrong.

the grades and rankings are what they are, our opinion of the player graded and/or ranked.  We know for a fact, who subscribes to our scouting service.  Every MLB club and pretty much every DI college along with a big number of smaller colleges.  

Regarding past rankings, we have them all.  Of course rankings change overtime but it is odd how many players stay at or near the top.  It is important to keep one thing in mind... Nothing is exact! If we only saw 100 players and ranked them 1 through 100, the chances of being exactly right are NONE.  Chances of being very close is extremely high.  Over time we keep seeing more and more players, many for the first time.  It can be at our events or somewhere else that we have seen them.  As we see more players, that first 100 will not stay 1through 100, because new players fit in somewhere in the top 100.  So a new player in our opinion is number 50, that means every player from 50 on down moves down a spot.  We didn't change our opinion of anyone in the original list, we just added a player where we think he fits.  Then as time goes on we see thousands of players and the list changes again. It keeps changing until the draft, by that time our people have seen close to 100,000 players that year.

college coaches especially like the grades, rankings and reports on the underclassmen. Recruiting has changed where younger kids are committing much earlier.  Recruiters can't wait forever to get the best players.  Look at the past PG National Showcases that are held in June each year a week after the draft.  We invite who we believe are the top players for the following years draft.  We have to invite them based on what we know about the players before they have even finished their Junior year in HS.  So how accurate are we at this. Check out the list of players that have been to that event over the years.  I know those lists are on the site.  

Bottom line... Do college coaches and MLB scouts rely on PG rankings to recruit and draft players?  No, very seldom, they rely on their own opinion of a player.

Do college coaches and MLB scouts pay attention to PG rankings.  Absolutely, we know that for a fact!  Why on earth would they ignore information that could possibly help them?

Do college coaches and MLB scouts share the same opinions of PG.  Most always, all one has to do is follow college choices and the draft.

Keep this in mind.  Over 80% of the players selected in the last 7 drafts have actually attended a PG event.  So when you see lots of players ranked that have been to a PG event, it is not favoritism, it's reality!  others that rank players know this, all you have to do is follow it.  We are always the first to come out with any player rankings.  All the other lists that come out later have basically the same players placed in a somewhat different order.

We know ahead of time that we are going to make mistakes.  We can deal with making mistakes. However, we never make a mistake on purpose!  There is no politics or favoritism involved.  We have actually lost a few friends because we do not play favorites.  Simply attending our events won't get you ranked or a high grade.  What you do at that event determines how you are graded.  And in a few cases, we might even screw that up. I'm very proud of our track record when it comes to evaluating talent. 

I don't think many people know how much effort goes into trying to be as accurate as possible.  

@ PGStaff, well-written explanation.......

Certainly PG has quite a challenge with a really massive number of players to evaluate, and if a given player has a super day on the right day at a showcase, he'll score quite well.

PG does its job based on what you saw and you do it well.

This may be a new thread:

like college camps, it seems certain weekends are jam-packed with events and options.  Everyone picks the same dates for their camp or showcase.

You just hope you & your son choose well based on his goals.

PGStaff -- Thank you for weighing in.

Speaking for myself, I have no doubt it takes tremendous effort to be as accurate as possible -- and clearly PG does it better than anyone at the HS level.

I would just love to see PG keep class-ranking histories when you update them. It seems like that would be helpful to scouts and players. And to your point, particularly considering the top 100, it would validate your hard work and expertise.

You track and make available the history of almost everything -- tournament scores and results, showcase results, etc.

Have you thought about doing the same with rankings?

I have not read most of the replies, but I suspect many will have the same observations if they are familiar with Perfect Game.

PG has certain events that every MLB teams scouts attend. I remember when my son attended his first PG event in Jupiter. I could not believe all the scouts that were there. Most of them had golf carts, and it looked like a sea of carts in the morning all parked with MLB and College teams names affixed to them, ready to go to the various fields. The MLB teams had multiple scouts from the same team, presumably so they did not miss anyone while on one field when another game was going on elsewhere. For some reason the Toronto Blue Jays had more scouts than anyone else, and one of their carts were parked on every field every game that I witnessed. In addition to all the scouts, PG has staff members set up behind home plate, and every field has a Stalker set up to capture every pitch. Whenever you look over it seems as if most plays, hits, pitches result is something being written down by the PG staff. I suspect with PG being the most respected organization in the industry, the people they hire are more than qualified to assess various kids talent. While that does not make them iinfallible, I am sure they get it right more times than not.

Of the little amount of criticism I've heard, it is typically a disgruntled parent who thinks little Johnny should have gotten a better rating/ranking. Granted a kid can have a bad day, or even a bad few days, but that is not the fault of the organization hosting the event.

Frankly I wish that most events were more like PG's.

My son went to one event (Under Armour) where he pitched great for a weak team on day one. The team they were facing was a well known team nationally (Orlando Scorpions) and reviewing their roster, they had mostly D1 committed kids.

Yet despite lofty promises of scouts galore, nary a single scout could be found that day, and not a single one saw my sons team play. The young kid who kept the book for UA, he said the stats would be turned in for review later when UA was going to offer a free "All Star" event to the best kids at the end of the tourney.

Come to find out that only the kids who performed well in the later games(i.e. playoffs) would be considered. Since my sons team was eliminated early the 2nd day, his pitching on day one was not even considered, despite how well he did, and who he did it against.

The moral of the story is that you can only hope the events you have your son participate in lives up to their billing and has scouts. Because if your son plays well against good competition, but there is no one there to see it, did you really accomplish your goal?

With PG events you do not have those worries.They are respected enough to recognize talent at early ages, and when you get on the PG radar, the right people will start to take notice. 

To your point about the coaches saying only six months out, otherwise they want to see for themselves, that is a no brainer. I'd be surprised if they said anything different in regards to seeing a kid themselves, regardless of how old the kid is. Sure kids project differently, and some are late bloomers. Still to even get a scout from a college, much less the pros interested, PG is a good way to get the interest going. That is of course unless he is a stud and tearing up the local HS season in an area known for top baseball programs.

The bottom line is that I'd bet dollars to donuts that a PG rating and/or ranking, carries more weight wih scouts than HS stats in most cases.