HS stats matter? Not so much

No, clearly what he’s really saying is HS stats do matter. Everything he commented on was a statistic. 6 IPs, 17 K’s, 2 BIPs, 1 hit, and 1 bunt out.  

I think what he's actually saying is that you can't put a ton of stock into HS stats you see reported without seeing the player yourself.  As I'm sure Stats4Gnats would agree, a lot of reported HS stats are somewhere between terrible and pure fantasy.

 

The point that scout definitely didn't make was about the level of competition.  In any given HS game the odds that one of the teams is horribly over-matched talent-wise is fairly high, so any random game you pick has a decent chance of giving you a dominant pitching performance.  

 

The one clear piece of evidence that the pitcher in that game was something special was that there were several scouts there to see him, and that would be true whether he struck out 17 or gave up 10 runs.

Below is a story about a local kid that committed to Maryland as a Junior before he made the varsity team.

 

http://www.timesunion.com/spor...ght-star-4422383.php

I read it another way.   If this scout doesn't report this talent to his bosses, he'll be fired.

 

 

What the scout didn't know is this kid was pitching against the N.C. School for the Blind. Unless you have an unbiased book keeper, you will ALWAYS have inflated/deflated numbers.

That's what I took from the scout's report. 

Actually the report also included other information. Like the kid was peaking in the mid 90s!  Stats then describe what happened with this Mid 90s guy on the mound.  If it were a low to mid 80s pitcher there likely would be no report and no scouts at the game. Mid 90s will create lots of scouting reports including statistics.

If I know a pitcher can throw in the 90s, you expect high strike out numbers.  If I see high walk or hit numbers that causes concern. Guess low K numbers would also cause concern.  Actually, the level of competition hurts hitters more than pitchers. Dominate pitchers tend to dominate at any HS level. However, hitters who face several dominate pitchers during a short HS season don't have the stats that others have against weaker competition.

I would never say stats are worthless.  That just wouldn't be true.  I can say stats are sometimes unreliable even misleading all by them self and they don't tell you the most important things you need to know. However, certain stats can and do create interest. Sooner or later everything is based on what you see in person.  After that, is is wrong to say scouts don't care about stats at all.  You can't be at every game, but you still want to know what's going on.  Don't think for a minute that scouts turn in a player and don't care if he is struggling and hitting .100 in his HS season.  The power hitter he turned in isn't getting any extra base hits. The 90+ mph pitcher he turned in isn't striking HS hitters out and he's getting lit up!  If things like that don't cause concern, you won't be employed for very long. 

So stats are used and they can be important.  They're just not the "most" important thing. There is a very high level prospect for this years draft. He really stands out and is well known by all the MLB clubs.  He plays in a very competitive HS area. All 30 clubs know what his batting average was last year. I bet they also know what his batting ave. is this year too. His junior hitting statistics caused serious concerns about his hitting potential.  BTW, he is doing very well this year.

I'll say this, stats by themselves don't matter a whole lot, unless they are terrible as you stated PG. That says something regardless. Much depends on the competition you're facing. My son was talking with one of his college freshman teammates the other day. The teammate made the comment that he did not see a pitcher that threw over 80 all year his senior year, until they reached the playoffs. My son laughed and told the kid he didn't see a pitcher under 80 in all 4 years of playing varsity ball. A lot depends on who you play.

Until a scout sees a player, I don't think he'll take a ton of heed in the stats.

PG -- I didn't include the whole post because it belongs to y'all, and is in the subscriber section. Clearly stats matter, but don't the scout's comments reinforce what so many old-timers say here all the time to over-amped, or over-worried HS parents -- that just because your kid is a stud in HS (or the reverse) ... it doesn't necessarily mean he will succeed or fail at the next level? Obviously this young man is a stud ... but the isn't the reason organizations like PG exist to put boys in competitive situations where the best can compete against the best? And isn't THAT usually the true test?  

Yes, the true test is when the best are playing with and against the best.  In recent years this has become more noticeable than ever.  There have been outstanding athletes drafted very early, paid a bunch of money only to fail in professional baseball. Several of these players had something in common.  They did not compete against the top competition very often.  IMO those that don't play the best competition are too big of a risk for professional baseball. They need to go to college so they can be evaluated against better competition. I think we will be seeing less and less of these types drafted early.

You bet I agree, but I don’t get all caught up in all the talk about level of competition or how poorly done HS stats are. The reason is purely perspective. My perspective is not as a prognosticator, a scout, a parent, a player, or a coach, so to me the numbers are just that, numbers. I don’t worry about not drawing a check to pay my bills if I tell my club they should pay some kid 7 figures to sign and he turns out to be a bust.

 

When I can get stats from MaxPreps for the opposing team, I do. Then I make them available to my program so I can look at them during a game. But I’m not looking at them to see if our pitchers should pitch a hitter different, if the hitters should prepare for something, if the runners should run any differently, or if the fielders should play back or in. I just look at them to see what the stats are.

 

Typically, the scoring during any 1 game, even at the LL level is done by one person, so all the biases and judgments made are relatively the same for all the players, with a bit more positive bias thrown in for the kids you like. So, if I see a kid batting .675 with an OBP of 1.241 and another batting .168 with an OBF of .275, there’s a good chance I’ve identified which is the better player. And it won’t make any difference what the competition was, because those things are averages of all the games.

 

In the case mentioned, what would bring those scouts out? Its always the numbers! Scouts won’t go out to see a kid pitch just because he’s on a good team or is 6’4”. But if he’s got a boatload of Ks, they’ll look into him a bit more and might show up just to see why he has all those K’s.

Stats can be useful as a way to determine effectiveness in a league. In our area, we have a fairly competitive conference. In our classification(4A), we see really good pitchers and hitters. But one classification down (3A) its like the difference between jv and varsity. A local team just destroys teams in the 3A division. Stats are skyrocketing for their players with several around the .500 mark. The fastest pitching they see is generally low 80's with the average guy in the 78mph range with slow loopy breaking balls. Occasionally we play them just to renew rivalries. When we play them we pretty much dismantle them. In 3 years, they have never beat us. They make it to state every one of the last 3 years. In our division, we have not made it to state the last 3 years. I spoke with their coach and whereas he is happy, probably be the top in their conference going to state, he is dissatisfied because they dont have to play anyone strong so he dont know if they really are good or not just looking at the numbers.

In judging stats, one must look at the competition. Its fairly easy to throw a no-hitter to a bottom feeder conference foe and then come out your next start, have equally good stuff, and get tagged with 10 hits leading to 8 runs through the course of the game because the competition is more to your level.

I think stats are a way to get interest in players, after that it is on the colleges and scouts to make an evaluation on the player going to the next level.  Case in point, I have had multiple players hit well above .400 in HS and have not gotten a lot of interest at the next level as hitters.  Some has to do with there size and others have to do with an obvious flaw that did not get exposed in HS but would get way exposed at the next level.

What's the point of looking at stats if not to use them advantageously? 

Ah, you don't know Stats4Gnats, do you?  He revels in stats, just for the sake of stats!!  Haha.

What you’re saying in a round-about way is, anyone who looks at stats who isn’t a scout or another coach is foolish, and I don’t consider myself a foolish person by any stretch of the imagination. Looking at the numbers enhances the entertainment value of the game for me, as it does for the vast vast majority of people who have any interest in the game.

 

Stats- As a fan, I appreciate stats to know which players have performed better than others. For example, if I see a hitter with a lot of home runs and a high slugging percentage, I assume that we may see a pitcher throw differently to that hitter...or see a result that is exciting to watch (such as a home run). If I see a pitcher with a high K-rate and a low ERA, I assume we will either be seeing high velocity and/or great command given the pitcher's arsenal. If I see a player with a lot of stolen bases, I assume that we may see a stolen base.

 

Stats are to be used, in whatever capacity. I find the concept of just looking at the stats "for the sake of looking" very difficult to comprehend. There is always a reason for stats, that's why they exist.

How about this stat; a kid has a .000 batting average with 20 plate appearances. You would say he's horrible right?

 

Well, that same kid has a .000 batting average with 18 sac bunts and two sac flies. 

 

Would that change your mind about if the stats told the true story or not?

 

That kid may never get noticed because he doesn't have the sexy .485 HS batting average, but he seems to be a kid I would LOVE to have on my team being the ultimate team player with his plate appearances...

The other stat that would tell the story on this kid would be number of at bats.  It would be 0.  So you could tell something by that as well.  This would be highly unusual, but it is possible.

Stats4Gnats, an OBP of 1.241? Huh?

 

I have been obsessed with stats since I was nine years old, but I have learned some things about them in the years since. They don't tell the total story. Too many people rely on very small statistical samples to tell the story of a player. Really even a 100 or 125 at bats is still a small sample.

 

 This past weekend I had a Major League Area scout tell me stats mean virtually nothing to him when he is on to a player. He said he looks for tools, especially tools that he SEES being put to use on the field. His team drafted one of our guys, a RH middle reliever who did not stand out at all statistically and threw 88-90 last year because the cross checker liked his unusual arm slot he threw from. Stats are fun. They can tell certain things about a player but they have to be used in the right context. Metal bats, wood bats, poor competition, age differences, small sample, small park size, large park size, wind always blows out in home park, home cooking score keeping, unknowledgeable scorekeeping which I have even seen at the college level, and on and on. Those are just some of the reasons that stats alone don't tell the whole story.

Interesting discussion, one that has been coming up relative to the Royals #1 draft pick in 2001.  One Bubba Starling whom is a local boy from a 5A suburban Kansas City school.  It can be said that his stats in HS were outstanding but relative to where he played and at what level competition he saw was and is a concern to those with more knowledge than I and was a real ? mark when the Royals drafted him. 

 

In my sons HS Conf. there are no less than 3 pitchers that are D1 signees and/or verbal commits to the likes of Arkansas & LSU in the class of 2014 and several others last year that commited to ranked DII and mid-majors.  Had Bubba perhaps played in HS against the likes of those pitchers it would be worth noting as a small sample size.

 

PGStaff has better insight but he did not see the level of pitching most in his class had saw at other more high profile events perhaps at an East Cobb (etc). and/or within his own HS conf.  Granted he's a specia athlete with big up side and other tools but his bat may be an issue and with him at 21 years old he may be a later bloom.

 

To the topic, HS stats IMO are relative to where your playing and the quality of competition. If your kid is seeing other high profile players during his HS schedule I thinks it's worth mention to perhaps point it out.

high school stats are nice for  mom  and DAD AND THE GRANDPARENTS BUT OTHERWISE THEY MEAN SQUAT

 

Aside from the accuracy and validity of HS baseball stats which are often questionable at best regarding their accuracy, if stats didn't mean squat, then why are they plastered in news articles when players are named all-conference or all-state?

A hs coach who does not utylize stats for his team is a clueless no good coach. Stats tell the coaches and players where they need improvement and where they excell. Properly interpreted, stats can help a team to find their groove. I find it interesting that even though a lot of people say stats in hs mean nothing, every varsity player pretty much knows at least his batting avg.

Baseball is a game of stats so of course they mean something!  But PG is pretty accurate with what he posted regarding stats.

 

If a batter has a 400 BA and plays in an area with less talent than nationally it really doesn't mean much. Take that guy and send him to one of the larger tournies in the country against better pitching prospects and he most likely won't have a 400 BA.  I guess that is why so many get drafted from states with better competition, FL, Texas and CA. And yes, coaches in HS should use stats to help his team and players to improve. And this is why guys in the top college conferences get drafted high or those that play in good HS conferences do as well.

 

Stats mean different things for different players.  The guy who gets on base most of the time will have a different stat that is just as important as someone who is a HR slugger.  All of these guys have roles to fill within the team, but not necessarily means future success for that particular player.  For a pitcher who places the ball on the ground often and has a weak defense behind him with less wins, does that mean he is not as good as a guy who has the same defense behind him but strikes out more?

Does more wins than losses mean that one pitcher on the HS level is better than another with less wins? No.  At that level it is all about skills and the future "stuff" players have and that is what scouts for any level look for. 

 

I do get TR's post, HS stats can give one a false sense (to player and family) as to where they might be headed.  That's why so many folks get upset when their players with awesome HS stats get less opportunities with those that have worse stats but with better skills overall.

Any scout or coach picking up a newspaper or recruiting just off of a vdeo, IMO is not doing his job unless he actually gets to see the player (or have representative watch). Most of the really good coaches send scouts abround unannounced to watch, it may not necessarily be the best competition, but he gets to see what stuff the guy has regardless of whether he wins or doesn't.

 

JMO

 

 

Of course HS stats mean SOMETHING.  The problem is you can't be sure what they mean until they are taken in context. The HS coach of his team knows the context and can use them effectively. The college recruiter or pro scout has no idea of the context and cannot effectively use them to make a decision on a player until he sees that player.

The beauty of MLB stats is that they are universal. Everyone knows the context, therefore they can be used effectively. However, there is even an exception to this!!  If you play for the Rockies, your stats don't mean quite as much. Pitchers are expected to have a higher ERA, a batters HR totals are viewed with some skepticism. This is because of the context in which they play. So, even in MLB, context is taken into account in regard to stats. The difference between MLB and HS is that EVERYONE knows the conditions at Coors Field, so it's a given their numbers will be skewed. For the HS player, scouts and recruiters DON'T know the conditions, so the stats really can't be used realistically until they see the player and make their own assessment of the player and the conditions under which he acquired his stats.

Hope that makes sense.

I totally disagree with the last post. Stats do not matter for this simple reason- the scorekeeper is generous and inaccurate on purpose on most HS teams. On my son's HS team- and we are talking about a well known, highly competitive league, a parent does the books. Every time a player on our team gets on base on an error, a dropped fly ball for instance, he gives it a base hit. He gives triples to a three base errors. He even gave hits on a fielders choice when his son hit into it. RBI's on a kid who hits into a double play. The parents call it "the joke book" because he alters the stats to make the starters all look good, especially his son who leads the team in hitting when he has half of his "hits" on errors or walks. If anyone tells me that HS stats are legit, I beg to differ based on this laughable experience. 

bballman- There are advanced metrics that take into account things such as ballpark effect and quality of opponent. As you said...a home run at Coors Field is quite different than a home run at Petco Park. But, there are ways to quantify that. A simple formula found on Baseball-Reference is "OPS+". But, if you're looking to get a little more in depth, I'd head over to either FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus and check out wRC+, which stands for "weighted runs created, normalized". I find it pretty interesting stuff.

 

CoachJ- I would not base my opinion on the millions of high school baseball players based off of your one experience with one scorekeeper. Yes, there are many inaccuracies in stat keeping. But not everywhere.

Here's one thing about stats that kind of bugs me. Good hitters on good teams will typically face the best pitching (relative to the area) most every game in high school. Teams will save their best to face the best. However the same can not be said for good hitters on bad teams. Usually those bad teams will face the #2 or even #3 high school starter from a team they are playing. As a result, a good player on a bad team will have better stats than other equally talented players on a better team. Just my observation.

That sounds really interesting JH.  Haven't been able to look at it yet, but it kind of proves my point even more.  There are many variables that go into stats.  Those variables are not only known at the MLB level, but studied in such detail that people can figure out exactly what's going on with any particular player.  In HS, those variables not only are unknown, but are so vastly diverse that it makes them almost useless to a recruiter or scout.  Once again, the only thing that a scout can count on is if a prospects stats are extremely low, regardless of the competition or setting, there is probably something wrong.  I think even if a prospects stats are extremely high, the prospect needs to be seen to make an evaluation because of the wide variety of competition he may be facing and the settings under which he is competing.

 

Shoot, even if there is a "stud" SS out there a recruiter/scout may be interested in and then he sees that the kids fielding percentage is like .750 or something, it still may be worth a look.  What if that kid is playing on fields with rocks in the infield and clumps of grass popping up everywhere???  It has been known to happen.  Not every field is the field of dreams.  What if a kid has 25 HRs on the year?  Can't take it for granted because maybe 22 of those HRs were at home.  And the left field fence at home is 225 ft. down the line. 

 

Just saying there are variables that can't always be known just by looking at stats.  I can think of a million examples, but I think you get my point.

This happens at the MLB level too, though obviously to a lesser extent.  Given enough data, you can adjust for it, but you're probably not going to have that data for a typical HS league.  With current automated scoring tools (iScore, for example) you can segregate data for your own team based on quality of opponent and at least make sure that you're comparing apples to apples when analyzing your own players' performances.

There are other factors though with the bad team scenario.

 

1.Weaker teams schedule weak non-conference games. Good players can improve their stats. Good teams are more likely to schedule tough non-conference opponents which can hurt their stats in comparison.

 

2. Sometimes coaches of weak teams will stack their pitching rotation in reverse when facing teams they know they can't beat regardless of who they put on the mound. So the best pitcher will only face the weaker teams in hopes of getting a win. This greatly improves with W/L record of the pitcher, ERA, K's, etc...

P.S. starting to see some of this in college ball where the usual Friday night starter will go on Sunday.

CoachJ,

If your team’s SK is really that bad, why don’t you do something about it? If I were in your position, I’d talk to the coach, since he’s the guy who picks the SK, and offer my services. But when I did that, I’d dang sure have some kind of proof, like a copy of a scoresheet I did, and a copy of the opposing team’s scoresheet as well.

Of course there are unscrupulous coaches who purposely do invalid stats, but they are really pretty rare. Most simply don’t have the time to verify every entry, and simply accept what they’re given, pull the numbers from the numbers from the scorebook themselves and don’t have a great deal of time to spend making sure everything was marked correctly, or allow the scorer to use an app like GameChanger or IScore, and never see the numbers before they’re sent in to MP.

I’ll tell you that not only are our team’s stats legitimate, they’ve been checked, double-checked, and reconciled all through the season, and continually cross-checked against the scoring rules. If your scorer isn’t doing that and you don’t do something to help the coach take care of it, you’re a bigger problem than the SK and don’t have any room to complain.

I’m sorry if that makes you feel attacked, but I’m sick and tire of people who whine, complain, denigrate scorers, but won’t do anything to help. It may well be that your scorer simply has never been taught how to score! Here’s a link to something I wrote a few years back to help scorers. http://www.infosports.com/scor...ping_for_dummies.pdf

Feel free to give your scorer the link, and tell him that if he has any scoring question, he can certainly post it right here on the HSBBW in the “Statistics and Scorekeeping” forum and he’ll get lots of highly qualified folks try to help him out. Or, if you send me a PM with his e-mail address, I’ll be glad to contact him and work with him directly.

Stafford,

 

I’ll agree with your characterization to at least the degree the opposing team has the flexibility to pick and choose who they throw, but I don’t find that to be happening a whole during a season. In our case, with a schedule that has us playing each league opponent 3 times in the same week, and each pitcher only being allowed to throw 30 outs, that luxury is non-existent because all 3 of every team’s best pitchers will almost always have to work.

bballman,

 

You’re correct that those advanced metrics simply aren’t available at any amateur level, and that the range of skills of the teams and players is far more ranging. But no scout will use any stats from, HSB, college ball, non-affiliated pro ball, or even MiL ball to completely evaluate players. An in-person evaluation will always take place for any major decision.

 

HS stats from a ML scout’s perspective a good for one thing and one thing only. Getting a player noticed if he hasn’t already been put on the radar. But scouts aren’t the only people looking at the numbers.

 

jacjacatk,

 

You’ve said that before about IScore being able to “segregate” data based on the quality of the opponent. I’ve looked for a way to do that for many years now, and am still looking. What I’ve done is to compute an opponent’s WPct just prior to the game, then apply that to things like hits for batters or runs for pitchers, but I’ve found over the last 15 years or so that it is a pretty poor way to do it. Its not as poor a way as doing it by division, but its pretty bad.

 

So if you’d like to explain how to segregate opponents, I’d sure appreciate it.

You can create "leagues" in iScore and then view data based on just the leagues you're interested in.  I think the original purpose for making this possible was to separate one season from the next, but because of the way they do it you can create as many leagues as you want and associate any combination of players/games/teams with each.  This would, for instance, allow you to create a league for each player on your roster and associate with that league only the games that player played in.  If you do that, the league for player A will show player A's stats in all the games he played in, but the stats for everyone else in that league would be limited to just those where they played in the same games he did.

 

It's not perfect, since it's only granular down to the game level, but it's pretty handy.  There are also add on packages by third parties that I think can separate the data down to player-vs-player matchups, and they publish an API for interacting with the data which ought to allow you to look at pitch-by-pitch data, as long as the data you're keeping on the front-end is detailed enough, and you have the time to program the necessary queries.

Stafford,

 

Our team falls into the “good” team scenario. Although we’ve had a very successful program and can’t do dink about the 15 league games we play, our coach has steadily improved our non-league competition every years since the program started playing V ball in 2007.

 

This season we have played 13 non-league games. Adding up all the wins and losses from the previous season, which was all our coach knew when he scheduled the games, the combined records were 263-127 for a WPct of .674 and included this year’s #1 ranked HS team in the country, and one that was #1 2 years ago. That’s some pretty fair competition, and you’re correct, our team numbers are pretty bad when they get compared to a lot of teams.

 

But, while parents may moan and groan about their little Babe Ruth or Cy Young not being among the stat leaders, those of us who understand the game and don’t have our glasses tinted by a parent’s biases, know how to interpret the numbers we see, and that isn’t lost on scouts either.

 

BTW, here’s something you may get a kick out of. In our game on Monday, both 3^rd basemen were named Stafford. Then to make it even more odd, they were both the starters in yesterday’s game.